Assessing the influence of direct payments on the rental value of agricultural land

Economic theory suggests that coupled and decoupled direct payments have different impacts on agricultural rental values because of the different production responses associated with these payments. This study investigates the impact of both coupled and decoupled EU CAP direct payments on rental values in Northern Ireland, using panel data taken from the farm business survey for the period from 1994 to 2002. Theoretically, agricultural land rents are a function of expected market returns and expected associated direct payments. The unobservable nature of expected returns means that actual market returns must be used as a proxy for the former in the empirical specification. As a consequence, the problem of bias due to expectation error arises. Using a GMM technique to take account of this problem, the results of this study show that the impact of CAP direct payments on rental values depends on the type of payment and on the nature of the production characteristics of the associated agricultural commodity.     

The influence of policy networks on policy output. A comparison of organic farming policy in the Czech Republic and Poland

Although, at the time of accession to the EU, organic farming policies formally were equally developed in the Czech Republic and Poland, a closer investigation reveals some variation. This paper takes a policy network perspective to explore the policy differences between these two countries. Common network themes are used to link networks with policy output. It is argued that the capacity of the organic sector and its structural organization, its cohesion, and the relationship between organic interest groups and the government affect the political discourse, and, in consequence, how organic farming policy is elaborated.     

The disappearing budget constraint on EU agricultural policy

Concern over budgetary costs has been the traditional driving force behind changes to the EU's Common Agricultural Policy. While the recent MacSharry reform of this policy was more related to external pressures arising from the need to reach an agreement on agriculture in the GATT Uruguay Round, many expect the budgetary constraint to re-emerge towards the end of this decade, particularly in the light of the impending accession of a number of Central and Eastern European countries (CEECs). This paper argues that it is unlikely that there will be any budgetary need to further reform Europe's agricultural policy to accommodate the CEECs. Applying the agricultural guideline to estimate resources and using a simple forecasting model of FEOGA Guarantee budget expenditure, the paper demonstrates that, under a range of plausible assumptions for the key variables affecting resources and expenditure, a significant positive margin should emerge between available resources and the cost of EU agricultural policy by the beginning of the next decade. This margin should be sufficient to pay the estimated costs of extending the present CAP to the CEEC countries without further significant reform. However, even though the budget cinstraint on EU farm policy may disappear, other factors, such as GATT disciplines and concern about agriculture's impact on the environment, will remain as pressures for further CAP reform.     

Is business lobbying in the European Union context-dependent? Evidence from the policy field of radio spectrum

This paper investigates contextual factors which impact on how business lobbying is carried out in radio spectrum policy in the European Union (EU). Based on the empirical evidence collected by means of ten expert interviews, the following considerations are drawn: first, the European Commission (hereafter “the Commission”) weighs highly information provided by corporate stakeholders which is in line with the EU objective to promote EU-wide coordinated use of radio spectrum. Second, the way the Council of the EU (hereafter “the Council”) is lobbied at EU level is unclear because of lack of transparency in the Council. Third, radio spectrum policy issues require niche expertise to be addressed because of high degree of complexity. Fourth, radio spectrum policy issues are characterised by low degree of salience as they are too technical for the wider public. Although centred on the EU context, the issues raised in this study, such as lack of transparency and civil society underrepresentation, are not unique to the EU system. In this respect, comparative studies between the EU and other institutional contexts may contribute to a better understanding of variation in business lobbying.     

Land constraints and agricultural intensification in Ethiopia: A village-level analysis of high-potential areas

Highland Ethiopia is one of the most densely populated regions of Africa and has long been associated with both Malthusian disasters and Boserupian agricultural intensification. This paper explores the race between these two countervailing forces, with the goal of inform two important policy questions. First, how do rural Ethiopians adapt to land constraints? And second, do land constraints significantly influence welfare outcomes in rural Ethiopia? To answer these questions we use a recent household survey of high-potential areas. We first show that farm sizes are generally very small in the Ethiopian highlands and declining over time, with young rural households facing particularly severe land constraints. We then ask whether smaller and declining farm sizes are inducing agricultural intensification, and if so, how. We find strong evidence in favor of the Boserupian hypothesis that land-constrained villages typically use significantly more purchased input costs per hectare and more family labor, and achieve higher maize and teff yields and higher gross income per hectare. However, although these higher inputs raise gross revenue, we find no substantial impact of greater land constraints on net farm income per hectare once family labor costs are accounted for. Moreover, farm sizes are strongly positively correlated with net farm income, suggesting that land constraints are an important cause of rural poverty. We conclude with some broad policy implications of our results.     

Jobs and agricultural policy: Impact of the common agricultural policy on EU agricultural employment

This paper investigates the relationship between EU agricultural subsidies and the outflow of labor from agriculture. We use more representative subsidy indicators and a wider coverage (panel data from 210 EU regions over the period 2004-2014) than has been used before. The data allow to better correct for sample selection bias than previous empirical studies. We find that, on average, CAP subsidies reduce the outflow of labor from agriculture, but the effect is almost entirely due to decoupled Pillar I payments. Coupled Pillar I payments have no impact on reducing labor outflow from agriculture, i.e. on preserving jobs in agriculture. The impact of Pillar II is mixed. Our estimates predict that an increase of 10 percent of the CAP budget would prevent an extra 16,000 people from leaving the EU agriculture sector each year. A 10 percent decoupling would save 13,000 agricultural jobs each year. However, the budgetary costs are large. The estimated cost is more than € 300,000 per year (or more than € 25,000 per month) per job saved in agriculture.     

Price convergence in contestable market structures: The impact of time and price-caps on intercity telecommunications rates

In this study, we tested if long-distance rates among AT&T, MCI, and US Sprint between New York City and six major SMSAs during 1980–91 have converged. Empirical findings show that rates have converged over time, that rate ratios or differences increased under price cap, and that distance does not have any impact on rate convergence. The variables of TIME and price cap (CAP) have greater impacts on rate convergence for AT&T/US Sprint than AT&T/MCI. Regression results based on pooled cross-section and time-series data yield better results.     

Demand for dairy products in the EU

In the EU dairy sector, given the remaining high protective tariffs and the quota system, the main factor that drives dairy product market prices is the demand. This paper evaluates the development of demand in the EU and presents estimates of consumption trends and forecasts for the future as well as estimates of elasticity with respect to prices and income in two major EU consumer countries: France and Italy. We use two methods to estimate the development of demand for dairy products, one based on a multi-stage demand system and another based on a single trend equation. The two methods generally lead to the same qualitative results but trend projections are larger using the demand system approach which is based on a shorter data period. This difference is thus partly explained by the fact that high trend projections are not sustainable over a long period. The results show a decreasing consumption of butter and fluid milk and an overall growth in protein and fat consumption. Nevertheless, the increase in fat consumption should be more moderate than the consumption of protein. The results also show that the demand for dairy products is relatively price inelastic but is more sensitive to changes in income (especially for butter and cheese categories). As shown by the use of a partial equilibrium model of dairy markets, the likely impact of the CAP reform strongly depends on the development of demand for dairy products in the EU. More research effort on demand analysis is therefore crucial in order to assess the impact of reforms or trade negotiations more accurately and effectively.     

Organic farming policy networks in Europe: Context,actors and variation

Despite most having developed under the umbrella of the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP), national-level organic farming policy networks in Europe vary. The aim of this paper is to explore the reasons for this variation. Quantitative network analyses were carried out in five ‘old’ and five ‘new’ EU member states and in Switzerland. To examine the patterns of influence on these 11 policy networks, the cases are compared in two stages. First, we examine the factors co-varying with the size and density of the networks and then we apply a most similar system – most different outcome research design. We identify the political environment as the main factor affecting size and density of organic farming policy networks in Europe. The distribution of power between organic farming organizations and agricultural ministries is influenced by state involvement and by the resources available to organic farming policy actors.     

Food scandals,media attention and habit persistence among desensitised meat consumers

Consumer reactions to food scandals and their resulting economic implication are well documented. However, studies have typically neglected the roles that consumption habits and media usage behaviours may play in explaining household’s response to food safety incidences. In this study we develop a model of heterogeneous media usage intensity, information impacts and decay over time to estimate household’s behavioural responses to the 2011 German Dioxin scandal. We are specifically interested in determining the degree of heterogeneity in household’s short-term adjustments demand patterns versus persisting long-term consumption habits of meat products (chicken and pork) directly affected by the incident. The empirical analysis employs detailed household-level retail scanner and media usage data collected by the GfK Consumer Scan panel for a total of 16,023 households over a period of 104 calendar weeks. Results of dynamic correlated random effect Tobit models indicate an important role of unobserved heterogeneity in explaining household responses during the food scandal. We find strong empirical evidence supporting our hypothesis that short-term marginal adjustments in demand and propensity to buy affected products triggered by the negative impact of household media exposure were over-compensated by habit persistence. The question of how consumption patterns evolve over time in the presence of food scandals is expected to be of interest for both policy makers and the food industry. The potential biases in the projection of economic impacts resulting from simplifying assumptions of household’s response patterns to a proliferating numbers of food safety incidences has implications for risk management and public policy.     

Assessing the impact of food policy research: rice trade policies in Viet Nam

The economic impact of marketing and trade policy research in Viet Nam conducted by the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) is assessed using a novel benefit–cost framework. It measures the economic value of the time saved in hastening the policy responses of the Government of Vietnam. Extensive interviews with partners and stakeholders in the research clearly indicated that the time saving was a legitimate measure of the influence of IFPRI on decision-making. Linking a spatial equilibrium model with income distribution analysis based on national household surveys, allowed IFPRI to satisfy policymakers that relaxing rice export quotas and internal trade restrictions on rice would not adversely impact on regional disparities and food security, and would have beneficial effects on farm prices and poverty. These were major concerns of policymakers prior to the IFPRI research project. The research on these and other policy options gave a degree of confidence to policymakers that relaxing the controls would be in Viet Nam’s national interest. They made these decisions earlier than would have been the case without the IFPRI research. The policy assessment framework is used to measure the economic impact of the policy changes themselves, and in particular, the contribution of IFPRI’s work with Viet Nam on the policies from 1995 to 1997. The relaxation of rice export quotas and internal restrictions on rice trade made by the Government of Viet Nam in 1995–97 are estimated to have had a present (1995) value to Viet Nam using a 5% discount rate of $222 million by 2000, rising to $966 million by 2020. For an incremental research investment of less than US$1 million, a conservative estimate of the benefit to Viet Nam of the IFPRI contribution to the policy changes effected in Viet Nam from the reduction in the policy implementation lag indicates a present value in 1995 terms of US$45 million. This represents a benefit–cost ratio of 56. A more optimistic assessment is that the present value is US$91 million with a benefit–cost ratio of 114. In addition to the welfare gains to Viet Nam, there were sizeable gains to the rest of the world from IFPRI’s contribution. Inclusion of these benefits increases present value and benefit–cost estimates by 34 to 84%. Around 38% of the contribution of IFPRI is estimated to have accrued to the rest of the world, as Viet Nam is now a major player in world rice trade.     

以欧元区为例的最优货币区内生化研究

文章从最优货币区理论契入,回顾最优货币区理论演变以及最优货币区内生化的最新发展历程,在此基础上对欧元区经济发展的实践进行了实证研究,通过运用ADF单位根检验,来检测欧元区国家经济发展是否趋同,以期从实践上验证最优货币区理论内生化这一理论,实证结果并不支持最优货币区内生性理论。文章还对新加入欧盟的非欧元区成员国将来加入欧元区后的状况进行简单预测,认为欧元区国家经济的趋同将需要很长的一段时间。     

The impacts of CGIAR research: A review of recent evidence

We review evidence on the impacts of CGIAR research published since 2000 in order to provide insight into how successfully the CGIAR Centers have been in pursuing the System’s core missions. Our review suggests that CGIAR research contributions in crop genetic improvement, pest management, natural resources management, and policy research have, in the aggregate, yielded strongly positive impacts relative to investment, and appear likely to continue doing so. Crop genetic improvement research stands out as having had the most profound documented positive impacts. Substantial evidence exists that other research areas within the CGIAR have had large beneficial impacts although often locally and nationally rather than internationally. However, the “right-time, right-place” nature of successful policy research and the relatively limited geographic scale of much natural resource management research often limits the overall scale of impacts of these programmatic thrusts vis-à-vis genetic improvement research. We conclude that given the evidence available, the CGIAR’s portfolio of research allocations has become overly skewed toward natural resource management and policy research over time. Hence, restoring somewhat the share of resources allocated to crop genetic improvement is warranted. In addition, the CGIAR needs to prioritize impact assessment of resource management and policy research to deepen its understanding of the social and environmental impacts of its work.     

Implications for food production, land use and rural development of the European Union’s Single Farm Payment: Indications from a survey of farmers’ intentions in Germany, Portugal and the UK

The 2003 reform of the European Union’s (EU) Common Agricultural Policy introduced a decoupled income support for farmers called the Single Farm Payment (SFP). Concerns were raised about possible future land use and production changes and their impact on rural communities. Here, such concerns are considered against the workings of the SFP in three EU Member States. Various quantitative studies that have determined the likely impact of the SFP within the EU and the study countries are reviewed. We present the results of a farm survey conducted in the study countries in which farmers’ responses to a decoupling scenario similar to the SFP were sought. We found that little short-term change was proposed in the three, rather different, study countries with only 30% of the farmers stating that they would alter their mix of farm activities. Furthermore, less than 30% of all respondents in each country would idle any land under decoupling. Of those who would adopt a new activity, the most popular choices were forestry, woodland and non-food crops.     

非劳动收入对家庭时间配置的影响——一个基于工作异质性的比较研究

本文在区分工作异质性的基础上,分析了非劳动收入对家庭时间配置的影响,认为非劳动收入的提高将减少家务时间的配置,增加市场工作刚性家庭的闲暇时间,但对市场工作非刚性家庭闲暇时间配置的影响却是不确定的。市场工作的异质性决定了一个家庭的社会和经济地位,利用CHNS2006年的数据所作的实证结果表明,非劳动收入水平的提高一致地减少了所有家庭的家务时间,同时导致在政府及国有集体企业、三资企业工作的家庭闲暇时间减少,但引起在家庭联产承包农业、私营个体企业工作的家庭闲暇时间配置的增加。     

Modeling beef supply response and price volatility under CAP reforms: The case of Greece

This study examines the supply response of the Greek beef market and the possible effect of the European Union’s Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) on the Greek beef sector during the period 1993–2005. A Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) process is used to estimate expected price, and price volatility, while several different symmetric, asymmetric and non-linear GARCH models are estimated. The empirical results show that price volatility and feed price are important risk factors in the supply response function, while the negative asymmetric price volatility that was detected implies that producers have a weak market position. Furthermore, the empirical findings confirm that the annual premium paid by the EU to beef producers had a positive impact on the production level and also, the change of the EU price support regime, after 2006, is having negative effects on beef production level in Greece.     

How can policy processes remove barriers to sustainable food systems in Europe? Contributing to a policy framework for agri-food transitions

A new food policy coherent with the goal of achieving sustainable food systems implies changing visions and radically revising the understanding of the system on which agricultural and food-related policies act. This paper identifies and discusses policy processes that contribute to sustainable food systems in Europe. Based on a conceptual framework that links the policy cycle approach to transition theories, we (i) assess the evolution of policy cycles of the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) to highlight how the food and nutrition concepts have evolved and been reframed throughout the five phases of the CAP, (ii) map and classify available policy instruments to assess potential synergies and gaps in view of their reorganization and (iii) indicate and discuss strategic tools for sustainable food policies. This contribution goes beyond the current literature highlighting the obstacles which hinder the transition to a policy regime that embodies the nexus among food and nutrition security, natural capital preservation and climatic and social justice, and proposing new avenues for food policy studies.     

Policy for organic farming: Rationale and concepts

Since the mid 1980s, organic farming has become the focus of significant attention from policy-makers, consumers, environmentalists and farmers in Europe and state institutions have become increasingly involved in regulating and supporting the organic sector. Reflecting the multiple goals for organic farming and for agricultural policy, a varied and complex range of policy measures have been developed and implemented to support the organic sector. However, balancing societal and consumer/market goals and balancing institutional and private stakeholder interests in the organic sector present particular challenges for policy-making. The key issues of current organic farming policy addressed in this special issue therefore specifically consider the two different dimensions of policy development – the dimension of policies and the dimension of politics. This paper provides an introduction to the special issue by outlining organic farming policy development in the EU, providing the basic concepts of organic farming policies in Europe and introducing the key themes of the papers published in this special issue.     

Examining the heterogeneity in calorie–income elasticities: A meta-analysis

Several studies conducted over the past three decades on calorie–income relationship appear to give inconclusive results. This paper reviews these studies and employs meta-regression analysis to examine the potential publication bias in the calorie–income elasticity, as well as the impact of specific study attributes on the elasticities that have been reported in the empirical literature. A total of 40 empirical studies, which yielded 99 estimated elasticities were considered. The results indicate the presence of publication bias in the reported elasticities. Besides, the estimates revealed evidence of positive and significant empirical effect of income on calorie intake from all the studies that goes beyond publication bias. Study attributes such as ranking of the journal, panel data used in the analysis, whether expenditure was used as proxy for income, year of primary survey, sample size, and numbers of the years of primary data were found to have statistically significant impacts on the reported calorie–income elasticities in the literature.     

Price and market policy for agriculture

The focus of this policy assessment is on the recent history of regulatory measures in market-oriented economies where the dominating triad of problems is stablisation, farm income support and market surplusses. Alternative forms of intervention are reviewed with respect to their impact on domestic supply and demand, international trade, farm income and labour, and finally how they cope with the process of change in agriculture. The author concludes that stabilisation policies in agriculture are not suitable for perishables where they can easily become a burden for consumers and governments alike.