FDI inflows,economic growth,and governance quality trilogy in developing countries: A panel VAR analysis

This study provides evidence of the triangular relationship between governance quality, foreign direct investment, and economic growth. Unlike previous studies in the governance—foreign direct investment—growth literature, this study employed the panel vector autoregressive model to examine the impact of governance quality and foreign direct investment on economic growth. Moreover, we used the impulse response function tool, which was developed in the same context, to better understand the reaction of the two main variables of interest, foreign direct investment, and economic growth, after shocks to the governance quality variable. Finally, the analysis was completed by the variance decomposition of all variables. These analyses were conducted for 102 developing countries from 1996 to 2014. Overall, the results show that inward foreign direct investment has a significant impact and can strongly encourage economic growth. These results indicate that the quality of governance in developing countries does not affect foreign direct investment and economic growth.     

Australia’s foreign investment review board and the regulation of Chinese investment

Foreign investment has played an important role in the Australian economy since the country’s foundation. Part of the latest wave of foreign direct investment (FDI) in Australia has been by Chinese firms, and largely by state-owned enterprises with connections to the Chinese state. Despite the value it has generated for the Australian economy, Chinese FDI has been controversial and has exposed some of the shortcomings in Australia’s foreign investment review process. This article evaluates Australia’s foreign investment regime, and pays particular attention to the Foreign Investment Review Board (FIRB). Questions are asked about how closely the FIRB’s role and processes resemble regulatory best practice. The article also considers whether greater fidelity by the FIRB to principles of good governance could better serve Australia’s broad policy interests and reduce Chinese perceptions of an opaque and discriminatory foreign investment regime.     

雾霾污染对外商直接投资的影响研究

基于中国271个地级以上城市2007—2016年的PM_2.5浓度数据,实证分析了雾霾污染对外商直接投资的影响,创新性地使用年均降水量作为缓解雾霾污染内生性的工具变量,在2SLS的统一框架内估计雾霾污染对外商直接投资的影响。主要结论有:雾霾污染与外商直接投资之间存在正相关关系,地方政府进行大力的环境治理可以减少环境污染,能够缓解外商直接投资压力;2012—2016年间雾霾污染对外商直接投资的影响要显著高于2007—2011年间的,可以预见未来治霾能够更加有效地缓解外商直接投资压力;大中城市雾霾污染对于外商直接投资的影响要显著小于小城市,内陆城市对于雾霾污染治理的难度要大于沿海城市。政策启示在于,雾霾减排将不可避免地深刻影响地方政府的行为,雾霾减排可以缓解外商直接投资压力,地方政府应该积极地投入到环境治理之中,促进环境治理和地方经济增长良性循环。     

China’s regulatory framework for outward foreign direct investment

China has become the world’s third largest outward investor, behind the United States and Japan. A growing body of literature suggests that China’s regulatory framework for outward foreign direct investment (OFDI) is a determinant of the country’s rising OFDI. This article presents a holistic review of that framework, including some possibilities for its improvement. Overall, China’s framework serves two objectives: to help Chinese firms become more competitive internationally and to assist the country in its development effort. In pursuing these objectives, the regulatory framework has moved from restricting, to facilitating, to supporting, to encouraging OFDI, but there are still strong elements of administrative control that make it cumbersome. State-owned enterprises (SOEs) seem to benefit particularly from the current framework when internationalizing through FDI.     

DETERMINANTS OF PRIVATE INVESTMENT IN MALAYSIA: WHAT CAUSES THE POSTCRISIS SLUMPS?

This paper examines the determinants of private investment in Malaysia, with an emphasis on the postcrisis investment slumps. A static private investment function is derived from the neoclassical framework, with appropriate modifications to account for the structural features observed in the country. To introduce dynamics into the model, we adopt a cost minimization problem, which assumes firms optimize investment levels with respect to a quadratic loss function. The results suggest that the availability of financial resources in the economy has a significant positive impact on private investment. Macroeconomic uncertainty exerts a negative influence on the investment climate in the private sector. Both foreign direct investment and public investment are found to have a complementary effect on private investment. Consistent with the prediction of the neoclassical model, a higher level of aggregate output raises private investment, whereas the user cost of capital has the opposite impact. (JEL O16, O53)     

人民币汇率与外商直接投资关系研究——基于上海市的数据

运用Johansen协整检验、Granger因果检验、脉冲响应分析等实证方法研究上海市外商直接投资与人民币实际有效汇率及其波动之间的相关性,研究表明:上海市外商直接投资(FDI)与实际有效汇率(REER)、地区国内生产总值(GDP)和对外依存度(OPEN)显著正相关,与汇率波动(VOL)和平均工资(WAGE)显著负相关;短期内人民币实际有效汇率及其波动对上海市外商直接投资存在影响,且汇率的波动比其实际值的大小更能影响外商直接投资;实际有效汇率及其波动的冲击在零期对外商直接投资均没有影响,响应值在第四期达到最大,实际有效汇率对于外商直接投资的影响主要体现在投资时机的选择上。     

The changing US–China investment relationship

The United States and China are at a turning point in their investment relationship. China’s previous investments in the United States were predominantly in government securities, while other holdings were negligible. Recently, the accumulation of treasury securities has slowed and direct investments by Chinese firms have risen steeply, with Beijing signaling greater support for portfolio investment outflows as well. This article describes the nascent shift in patterns of Chinese investment in the United States and uses the case of direct investment to examine the implications for US–China relations. We discuss current and future policy issues presented by Chinese foreign direct investment (FDI) in the United States, including national security, market access, and antitrust.     

Democracy in the neighborhood and foreign direct investment

The determinants of foreign direct investment (FDI) have been extensively studied. Even though there is extensive research in the area, most of it is based on analyzing the effects of host country characteristics on FDI flows, and yet there is little research on how neighboring country characteristics play a role in facilitating FDI flows to host countries. This paper analyzes the association between the democracy level in neighboring countries and FDI flows to host countries. Using bilateral FDI flows from the OECD countries, with a large host country sample, we find that countries surrounded by democratic countries attract higher FDI flows. Furthermore, we find evidence that countries that are surrounded by neighboring countries with good institutions tend themselves to have better institutions, experience lower civil conflict, and have higher political stability and hence indirectly attract higher FDI flows. Our findings suggest that if neighboring countries act in such way as to become more democratic, FDI flows to these countries would be higher since not only does improving the quality of democracy attract more FDI inflows, but also being surrounded by neighboring advanced democratic countries will also lead to higher FDI flows to them.     

When do Heuristics Matter in Global Capital Markets? The Case of the BRIC Acronym

ABSTRACT

Several recent publications have argued that the use of heuristics by financial investors can distort global capital flows, but scholars have paid little attention to the scope conditions that determine when heuristics become influential (and when they don’t). Building on work in economic sociology and behavioural finance we suggest that the degree to which investment heuristics can bias aggregate capital flows depends on the levels of uncertainty and self-referentiality that structure the environments under which investment decisions are being made. Applying these insights to the two principal global markets for corporate investment, we argue that the institutional structure of markets for short-term portfolio equity investments (PEI) is far more conducive to trigger the mimetic adoption of a specific heuristic than in markets for long-term foreign direct investments (FDI). To test this hypothesis, we leverage the high level of arbitrariness of the selection of Brazil, Russia, India and China into the BRIC acronym and empirically examine the impact of its remarkable rise to prominence among communities of financial investors in the mid-2000s on global capital flows to emerging economies. In line with the theoretical argument, we find robust evidence of a strong BRIC-bias in markets for PEI but not FDI.     

The impact of governance and transparency on firm investment in Vietnam

A large literature asserts a causal relationship between the quality of economic governance and economic performance. However, attempts to establish such a link at an aggregate level have met with considerable methodological criticism. This paper seeks to overcome this limitation. We match a panel of Vietnamese enterprises from 2006 to 2010 with a unique panel dataset measuring sub‐national economic governance to estimate a relationship between local governance and private investment. We do not find a significant relationship between investment and most traditional forms of governance. However, there is one important exception – transparency, especially the public posting of planning documents, is strongly associated with higher investment across a range of different specifications. Our results have significant implications for policy, given the prevailing theory that changes in the quality of local economic governance will spur improved economic performance.     

Chinese interests in the global investment regime

China is rising as a major source of outward direct investment (ODI), but barriers to and protectionism against Chinese investment have been strengthened as well. This situation reflects inherent flaws in the architecture governing international investment. This article identifies three of China’s key interests in the global investment regime: (1) to reduce investment barriers and depoliticize foreign regulatory review processes; (2) to ensure better protection of its overseas investment; and (3) to secure international recognition of its unique identity in terms of institutional characteristics and development strategy. As China shows more and more interest in building the architecture governing international investment, we suggest that improving investment governance at the bilateral, regional, and multilateral levels is the best strategy for China to adopt. Strategies that China should pursue include (1) accelerating the negotiation and revision of bilateral investment treaties (BITs); (2) promoting regional and sub-regional cooperation; and (3) contributing to the architecture governing global investment.     

Governance and foreign direct investment: a panel gravity model approach

This paper investigates the link between governance and foreign direct investment in the case of 14 transition countries by using a panel gravity model approach in two alternative ways. First, the level of governance in the target country is studied. Second, the absolute difference in the governance level between the source and target country is investigated. In both cases the results suggest that the lack of good governance does not deter, in fact it encourages, foreign direct investment.     

Taxi,Takeoff and Landing: Behavioural Patterns of Capital Flows to Emerging Markets

This paper analyses volatility, persistence, predictability, correlation, comovement (or contagion risk) and sudden stop (reversibility) of capital flows (foreign direct investment (FDI), foreign portfolio equity investment, long-term and short-term debt flows) using time series econometric techniques for 24 emerging economies over 1970–2014. This is informative on the pattern and relationship between capital inflows, with implications for accommodating macroeconomic policies in countries receiving inflows. The paper also addresses the predictions of conventional theory, that differences are associated with the maturity of the capital (long-term vs. short-term), with the information-based trade-off model of Goldstein and Razin [(2006). An information-based trade off between foreign direct investment and foreign portfolio investment. Journal of International Economics, 70(1), 271–295], that differences are associated with the structure of the capital (equity vs. debt). In line with the latter, equity flows (FDI and portfolio) are less volatile and persistent, more predictable and less susceptible to sudden stops than debt flows. Contrary to conventional theory, short-term flows are not more volatile, but there is evidence that correlations and risks of contagion are strong within all capital flow components.     

Does foreign direct investment increase exports’ productivity? Evidence from developing and emerging countries

Raising the productivity content of exports is an important issue for developing and emerging countries. What role do foreign firms play in this process? This question has not been adequately studied. We contribute to the literature by generalizing the role of foreign direct investment (FDI) in the host country’s export productivity level. Using panel data, we present new empirical evidence suggesting that FDI boosts the overall productivity level of the developing and emerging countries’ exports.     

中国OFDI逆向技术溢出效应 的影响因素研究* ——基于国别面板数据的非线性门槛技术回归

本文首先对对外直接投资逆向技术溢出效应的机理进行了分析,然后以2003-2013年中国对外直接投资的13个主要发达国家的数据为样本,考察了中国对外直接投资逆向技术溢出效应的影响因素。本文的实证结果发现,中国与东道国之间的技术差距、东道国研发（R&D）支出、全要素生产率、人力资本、技术创新能力、制度环境是对外直接投资逆向技术溢出效应的正相关因素。同时,本文以技术差距作为门槛变量进行门槛效应检验,结果表明,技术差距存在单一门槛值,当中国与东道国之间技术差距较大时,技术差距对逆向技术溢出产生了正向影响;当技术差距缩小后,正相关关系仍然存在,但影响程度有所下降。     

外商直接投资的生态环境效应研究展望

目前,外商直接投资的环境效应问题,随着投资动机与引资目标的变迁而日益突出。所以,需要转变研究视角,分析外商直接投资的环境效应,作为今后选择性利用外资的前提;同时,引导FDI运用统一的环境标准,减少对东道国的环境污染,使外资真正在构建环境友好型社会,实现生态现代化中发挥作用。     

我国外商直接投资区位分布影响因素的实证分析

目前,我国已成为全球FDI最具吸引力的国家,但FDI在我国东部、中部和西部的分布极不均衡。通过采用动态面板计量模型对全国各省份的历史数据进行分析,分别建立全国、东部、中部及西部地区四个模型,全方位多角度地对影响我国外商直接投资区位分布的因素进行实证研究,并分析了目前我国利用外商直接投资所存在的问题,提出了相应的政策建议,力图为制定科学地利用外资战略提供理论支持与政策指导。     

WHAT DETERMINES THE “LEGAL” QUALITY Of BANK REGULATION AND SUPERVISION?

This article has two contributions. First, using the methodology of Neyapti and Dincer, it provides measures of legal quality of bank regulation and supervision (RS) for a new set of developed and less‐developed countries. Second, it investigates the determinants of RS in view of the hypothesis that the existing institutional environment matters for the quality of formal institutions such as banking laws. The empirical evidence in this article demonstrates that past financial crises and prevailing levels of both financial market development and foreign direct investment inflows affect RS beyond and above the effects of other potential factors, such as macroeconomic performance and good governance. Evidence from transition economies also supports these findings. (JEL E44, G2, K29, O1)     

外商研发投资对我国区域创新体系的影响——基于1999年～2008年省际面板数据的实证检验

笔者采用1999年～ 2008年中国大陆29个省市自治区的面板数据,实证检验了外商研发投资对区域创新体系的影响.结果表明:外商研发投资对我国区域创新体系中的知识获取能力、企业技术创新、技术创新环境和创新绩效均具有显著的正效应,对知识创造能力的影响不显著.其中,对技术创新环境和知识获取能力的正效应强于国内企业研发投资,对企业技术创新能力和创新绩效的正效应弱于国内企业研发投资.     

主权财富基金对外直接投资的选择

针对主权财富基金对外直接投资的选择问题,提出从行业和企业两个层面对值得入股的国内企业进行选择。首先论述了主权财富基金在对外直接投资时进行行业选择的思路,分析了我国主权财富基金对外直接投资的行业战略,进一步确定了行业组合的优先次序;然后针对所选行业中的国内上市公司,运用DEA模型对其进行了效率评价,最终确定主权财富基金的国内企业选择。