On the measurement and analysis of aggregate economic activity for China: the coincident economic indicators approach

This paper reviews some of China's high-frequency economic indicators and our principal findings on their selection and use. Our aim is to develop a composite index of coincident economic indicators (coincident economic index, CEI) which can be used to obtain timely information on the present state of the China's economy and provide an appropriate measure to analyze China's short-term macroeconomic dynamics. Notably, combining industrial production, retail sales, manufacturing employment, income of financial institutions and passenger traffic volume, they work well as the method for dating business cycles for China. It shows that, over the past two decades, there was one marked recession which occurred in 1988:8 to 1989:12. In addition to this business cycle chronology we also develop a growth cycle chronology based on the deviations from trend of the CE which shows that there have been four cyclical slowdowns since 1986. Whereas GDP growth lacks cyclical movements and appears to be dominated by trend and irregular movements, in contrast to GDP, the CEI works well as a measure of cyclical dynamics and can contribute to the analysis of short-term fluctuations of Chinese economic activity relative to its long-term growth.     

客体物象对主体形象的暗示和显现——《觉醒》中“鸟”和“大海”的象征意义

《觉醒》是19世纪末美国著名女作家凯特·肖邦的代表作,也是美国文学史上一部女权主义杰作。作品中鸟和大海的物象具有对主人公形象及其生命历程的暗示和显现作用,从而显示出深邃而丰富的内涵和鲜明而独特的象征意义。     

Corporate yield curves as predictors of future economic and financial indicators

The government yield curve is known for its ability to predict the future growth rate of the economy. Later studies showed that credit spreads can assist in predicting macroeconomic behaviour as well. We extend this notion by utilizing corporate yield curves and demonstrating that corporate yield curve spreads can predict future economic growth, the future state of the economy and stock market behaviour. In addition, our sample covers the most recent data available, and it also includes the crash year of 2008 and the recovery period following it. Our results reveal a trade-off effect between the government yield curve, which is a better predictor for long-term forecasting, and the corporate yield curves, which are better predictors for short-term predictions. In addition, we show that both the government and corporate yield curves are more effective in predicting negative rather than positive economic changes.     

Measuring the trade-off between economic growth and a clean environment

This article surveys various aspects of the measurement of environmental quality from the view point of national accounting and welfare economics. It focuses on the question whether GNP or NNP should be corrected for environmental change (green or eco-GNP) or whether physical accounts provide sufficient information for an assessment of the trade-off mentioned above. We conclude that valuation of (services from) environmental capital cannot be avoided for such assessment, but can only be made using a model based approach. Statistical agencies should continue to collect data on environmental quality and to value changes in environmental capital in the context of national resource accounting. However, official statisticians should refrain from correcting GNP or NNP for environmental change, as this correction implicitly contains a political judgment and cannot be based on mere technical knowledge.     

Interior immigration enforcement policy and the subjective well-being of US residents: evidence from secure communities

There were increased efforts to enhance interior enforcement of immigration laws in the United States in recent years. Considering that more interior immigration enforcement measures are going to be proposed in the near future, there is a need to evaluate whether such policy can achieve its objective and imparts some benefits to the population it is supposed to help. In this article, I examine the impact of one of the largest interior immigration enforcement effort – Secure Communities – on the subjective well-being of US residents. The analyses show that there is no evidence that Secure Communities statistically significantly increased the proportion of white or black non-Hispanics reporting that they were satisfied with their life. Evaluated at the mean, at 10% significance level, the results suggest that I can rule out an effect size larger than 0.5% and 1% for white and black non-Hispanics, respectively. Since only a small share of white or black non-Hispanics are foreign-born, this finding suggests that the benefit of Secure Communities to US-born individuals that are coming through an increase in their life satisfaction is not economically large.     

Alternative indicators for predicting the probability of declining inflation: evidence from the US

The performance of inflation indicators for predicting the probabilityof inflation falling inside constant and moving targets is consideredwith a probit model using US data. Given the Federal ReserveSystem's emphasis on achieving price stability, particular attentionis given to the target that future inflation will be below recentinflation. In contrast with earlier years, the unemploymentand capacity utilisation rates do not perform well in forecastingthe direction of inflation in the mid and late 1990s. We suggestthat extending the Keynesian Phillips curve analysis to considerchanges in labour market conditions, technological advance andworker skills, and openness will increase understanding of theseissues.     

The MDGs and exit time: the case of the Philippines

This article evaluates whether the Philippines will be able to halve the incidence of poverty between 1990 and 2015. Using the concept of exit time and household‐level data, we find that the Philippines as a whole will not be able to comply with Target 1 of the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs), although 15 of its provinces will be able to do so. These provinces are closer to Manila, characterized by higher per capita expenditure growth rates, and had lower incidence of poverty in 1988. This suggests the importance of policies to mitigate the regional disparity in achieving the MDGs.     

Research publications and economic growth: evidence from cross-country regressions

The effects of the quality of tertiary education on economic growth have been examined across countries. Professors’ research publication is used as a proxy for the quality of education at the university level. Research outputs in basic science and engineering are found to have a positive and significant effect on economic growth. Economics and business research also have immediate growth effects although the effects are a bit smaller. The results are, in general, consistent with the findings in the growth literature. The convergence hypothesis is also supported by the data.     

Environmental performance,corruption and economic growth: global evidence using a new data set

This study investigates the relationship between environmental performance, corruption and economic growth using panel data of 87 countries covering the period from 2002 to 2012. The Environmental Performance Index is used for the first time to evaluate the environmental quality on economic growth. By employing both ‘static’ and ‘dynamic’ panel models, we find that environmental performance is positively related to economic growth and is more significant in non-Organization for Economic Cooperation Development (OECD) countries. Moreover, when corruption is incorporated, the empirical estimation results indicate that although lower corruption helps economic growth in non-OECD countries, the negative coefficients of the three interactive terms show that the positive effect of environment performance on economic growth will drop, while greater environmental performance combined with natural resource abundance inevitably leads to inefficient bureaucracies and hence disadvantageous economic growth. As a result, policymakers in non-OECD countries should carefully ensure better government quality when they exhibit strong environmental performance so as to avoid any disadvantageous impact upon economic growth.     

Measuring subjective expectations in developing countries: A critical review and new evidence

The majority of economic decisions are forward-looking and thus involve expectations of future outcomes. Understanding the expectations that individuals have is thus of crucial importance to designing and evaluating policies in health, education, finance, migration, social protection, and many other areas. However, the majority of developing country surveys are static in nature and many do not elicit subjective expectations of individuals. Possible reasons given for not collecting this information include fears that poor, illiterate individuals do not understand probability concepts, that it takes far too much time to ask such questions, or that the answers add little value. This paper provides a critical review and new analysis of subjective expectations data from developing countries and refutes each of these concerns. We find that people in developing countries can generally understand and answer probabilistic questions, such questions are not prohibitive in time to ask, and the expectations are useful predictors of future behavior and economic decisions. The paper discusses the different methods used for eliciting such information, the key methodological issues involved, and the open research questions. The available evidence suggests that collecting expectations data is both feasible and valuable, suggesting that it should be incorporated into more developing country surveys.     

Beyond Patrimonial Plunder: The Use and Abuse of Coconut Levies in the Philippines

This article re-examines a case of corruption that was perpetuated during a period of authoritarian rule in the Philippines: the subversion of ‘coconut levies’, a tax on coconut production imposed by strongman President Ferdinand Marcos from 1971 to 1982. Literature on the case has formed the basis for locating the political origins of the country’s struggles with long-run economic transformation in terms of the extent of ‘rent-seeking’ and articulations of ‘neo-patrimonialism’ in this middle-income developing economy. The article interrogates how extant analyses of the case have explained associated malign developmental outcomes with reference to institutional design and governance conditions. It forwards a re-interpretation that focuses on the distributional contest underpinning levy mobilisation, including the types of state-engineered privileges contested, and how access to these were politically determined and regulated during and after the Marcos period. This approach, in which developmental possibilities of rent-creating state interventions are not universally denied but considered with reference to configurations of power and structures of political bargaining, will be shown to address limitations of preponderant analyses and bear relevance to developing countries where, because of structural reasons, neo-patrimonialism may be endemic but rent-creating state interventions cannot be discounted as instruments for promoting economic development.     

Measuring economic freedom: an alternative functional specification and subsequent ranking

ABSTRACT

The widely cited Economic Freedom of the World index is an aggregate measure of economic freedom calculated by using a simple arithmetic mean of scores over five sub-dimensions: (1) size of government, (2) legal structure and security of property rights, (3) access to sound money, (4) freedom to trade internationally and (5) regulation of credit, labour and business. The use of a simple arithmetic mean implicitly assumes that the different sub-dimensions are ‘perfect substitutes’. To explore the implications of this assumption, we compute an aggregate economic freedom score and ordinal ranking of countries, by taking a geometric mean of the five sub-dimensions. For this alternative specification, the marginal impact of each sub-dimension on the aggregate score is no longer independent of the other sub-dimension scores. Consequently, countries with inconsistent levels of economic freedom across sub-dimensions are ‘punished’ to a greater degree than are countries with less variability across sub-dimensions. Our alternative specification results in considerable movement in terms of country rankings. The geometric mean measure does not appear to explain economic growth as well as the arithmetic mean measure.     

Oil prices and economic activity: evidence for G-7 economies based on a wavelet approach

This study examines the relationship between oil prices and economic activity in the G-7 economies during the period 1960M1–2014M07 using a wavelet approach. The results show significant differences in the relationship between these two variables depending on the frequencies. Furthermore, we find that oil price shocks affect economic activity at low frequencies (long run) in all G-7 countries, while the effect at high frequencies (short run) is limited to a few countries.     

Globalization,Inequality, and Local‐level Dynamics: Indonesia and the Philippines*

Subnational disparities and center–region relations are increasingly important issues in both the development economics literature and East Asian policy circles. Almost all developing countries in East Asia are actively decentralizing power and resources from the center. Analytically, there is growing interest in spatial economics, arising out of the fusion of economics and geography. This paper examines these issues with reference to Indonesia and the Philippines. Both countries are well suited to such a study: they are the two largest archipelagic nations in the world, they both feature great subnational diversity, and they have both adopted major decentralization programs, in similar circumstances. We conclude that, in aggregate, there have been no major changes in regional inequality in either country, although this conclusion is sensitive to the selection of economic indicators. In general, the regions that are the best connected to the global economy have grown more rapidly.     

Valuing the social cost of corruption using subjective well being data and the technique of vignettes

Corruption can have an effect on people's happiness and satisfaction, and therefore, can generate a social cost. However, the perceptions of corruption and satisfaction can also vary across subjects, due to socioeconomic and cultural characteristics. This article studies the differences in the perceptions of corruption and satisfaction across subjects, utilizing the technique of vignettes for the correction of the bias that follows from the differences in the response scale across individuals. The evidence comes from a sample of citizens in Spain, who are asked about their perceptions of corruption and personal satisfaction. The results show that there exists a response scale bias, both for corruption and satisfaction. These results are utilized to approximate the social cost of corruption.     

Testing economic models of volunteer labour supply: some empirical evidence for the German Red Cross

We use a new data set collected by means of a questionnaire study of volunteers of the German Red Cross to test predictions of three competing economic models of volunteer labour supply: the public-goods model, the private-consumption model and the human-capital model. The three competing economic models make different predictions regarding the response of a volunteer’s labour supply to a change in the perceived labour supply of other volunteers. Our empirical results lend support to the public-goods model.     

Extreme bounds of subjective well-being: economic development and micro determinants of life satisfaction

This article presents a global sensitivity analysis of micro determinants of life satisfaction (LS), a subjective well-being (SWB) measure of quality of life, as it relates to economic development. We test 53 micro variables using extreme bound analysis on a pooled cross-section data from the World Value Survey representing 98 countries between 1989 and 2014. Several standard variables frequently included in SWB regressions are controlled for. The test variables are broadly categorized as demographic, personal–economic, individual traits and values, social attitudes and collectivism, social relationships and perceptions of control. We find subjective health status, household income rank, family savings, religiosity, most perceptions of control and several social attitudes and collectivism measures to be universal LS determinants. Generally, the determinants of LS vary by a country’s level of economic development. In particular, we provide suggestive evidence that as countries develop, certain needs are satisfied and stop being important contributors to LS while others take their place.     

Simulating weight restrictions in data envelopment analysis using the subjective and objective integrated approach

This article investigates inflation in Mozambique using long-range dependence (LRD) techniques in monthly data from December 1995 to October 2012. Two important features of the data are analysed: persistence and seasonality, looking at aggregated and disaggregated data. The stability of the parameters across the sample is also investigated. The results indicate a high degree of persistence in the data along with a strong seasonal pattern. Policy implications are discussed.     

Contribution of international ecotourism to comprehensive economic development and convergence in the Central American and Caribbean region

Drawing on the positive experience from Costa Rica, the study examines whether international ecotourism makes a significant contribution to comprehensive economic development for the Central American and Caribbean region and contributes to comprehensive economic convergence. Following a standard empirical growth model, a dynamic panel regression model is estimated using time-series data from 1995 until 2012 for a cross section of seven countries. The interaction of international tourism and various established sustainability indicators is employed allowing ecotourism to be consistently quantified across countries, while numerous country-specific structural characteristics are controlled for. The estimation results show that international ecotourism has a statistically significant positive effect on both traditional economic development (real GDP per capita) and comprehensive economic development (adjusted net savings; ANS per capita), which is a measure of a society’s potential future well-being, thus providing evidence in support of the tourism-led growth hypothesis and pointing towards an important role for ecotourism in driving comprehensive economic convergence.