Social Employment of Welfare Recipients in Belgium: An Evaluation

In Belgium, welfare agencies receive a subsidy to employ welfare recipients for a period sufficiently long to entitle them to unemployment benefits. We investigate the effect of this programme on the exit rate from welfare. We propose a grouping/IV estimator of the programme effect that eliminates selection bias. The estimator is consistent, even if the selection into the programme depends on the average unobserved characteristics of welfare recipients in a region and in a welfare duration interval. Without correction for selectivity we find that the programme reduces welfare dependence, but after correction this conclusion is reversed.     

A simple approximation to the average effect of the treatment on the treated in panel settings with selective enrolment

This article shows that, in panel settings when the probability of receiving a treatment is low, simple comparisons of outcomes between those who are treated in a given period and those who are untreated in that period, but receive the treatment in some other period, approximately identify the average effect of the treatment on the treated. Monte Carlo simulations reveal that this approximate selection-correction substantially reduces selection bias relative to naive comparisons of outcomes between treated and untreated units.     

Treatment effect analysis of early reemployment bonus program: panel MLE and mode-based semiparametric estimator for interval truncation

We use Korean data to find the effects of Early Reemployment Bonus (ERB) on unemployment duration; ERB is a bonus that the eligible unemployed receive if they find a job before their unemployment insurance benefit expires. A naive approach would be comparing the ERB receiving group with the non-receiving group, but the ERB receipt is partly determined by the unemployment duration itself (thus, an endogeneity problem). Interestingly, there were many individuals who did not receive the ERB despite being fully eligible, and this is attributed to being unaware of the ERB scheme. Taking this as a ??pseudo randomization??, we construct treatment and control groups using only the eligible. Our data set is an unbalanced panel with the response variable interval-truncated due to eligibility requirement of the ERB. We propose a panel random-effect MLE and a semiparametric ??mode-based?? estimator for the interval-truncated response. Our empirical finding is that the effect varies much, depending on individual characteristics. As for the mean effects, whereas the MLE indicates large duration-shortening effects, the semiparametric estimator shows much weaker and mostly insignificant effects.     

THE POLITICAL ECONOMY OF PUBLIC‐PRIVATE PARTNERSHIPS AND ANALYSIS OF THEIR SOCIAL VALUE*

ABSTRACT: This article applies political economy theory to public‐private partnerships (PPPs). First, we propose that social welfare is the appropriate normative evaluation criterion to evaluate the social value of PPPs. Second, we specify the goals of PPP participants, including private‐sector partners and governments. Third, we review the observed outcomes of PPPs and analyze them from both a political economy perspective and a social welfare perspective. Fourth, based on a comparison of the actual outcomes of PPPs to normatively desirable social welfare outcomes, we propose some ‘rules for governments’ concerning the design of government PPP institutions and the management of PPPs. We argue that if governments were to adopt these rules there would be fewer PPPs in total, they would be more like traditional government contracts and there would be a greater likelihood of improved social welfare. However, political economy theory also explains why implementation of any reform will be difficult.     

A panel data heterogeneous Bayesian estimation of environmental Kuznets curves for CO2 emissions

This article investigates the Environmental Kuznets Curves (EKC) for CO₂ emissions in a panel of 109 countries during the period 1959 to 2001. The length of the series makes the application of a heterogeneous estimator suitable from an econometric point of view. The results, based on the hierarchical Bayes estimator, show that different EKC dynamics are associated with the different sub-samples of countries considered. On average, more industrialized countries show evidence of EKC in quadratic specifications, which nevertheless are probably evolving into an N-shape based on their cubic specification. Nevertheless, it is worth noting that the EU, and not the Umbrella Group led by US, has been driving currently observed EKC-like shapes. The latter is associated to monotonic income–CO₂ dynamics. The EU shows a clear EKC shape. Evidence for less-developed countries consistently shows that CO₂ emissions rise positively with income, though there are some signs of an EKC. Analyses of future performance, nevertheless, favour quadratic specifications, thus supporting EKC evidence for wealthier countries and non-EKC shapes for industrializing regions.     

Does state-mandated reporting work? The case of surgical site infection in CABG patients

This paper is the first empirical study to explore the relationship between the state-mandated reporting of surgical site infections (SSIs) and changes in infection rates, length of stay and costs among coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) patients. This paper uses generalized difference-in-difference (DID) methods to analyze patient discharge data from the Nationwide Inpatient Sample (NIS) from January 2004 to December 2011 merged with state-level data on mandatory reporting status. After controlling patient and hospital characteristics, and state and year fixed effects, we do not find empirical evidence that state-mandated reporting leads to lower odds of SSIs in CABG procedure. Although it is associated with shorter length of stay and lower costs, the effect is not significant. These results suggest that merely requiring hospitals to report outcomes may not lead to significant changes at least in the case of SSIs among CABG patients.     

Does grade retention affect students’ achievement? Some evidence from Spain

Grade retention practices are at the forefront of the educational debate. In this article, we measure the effect of grade retention on Spanish students’ achievement by using data from Programme for International Student Assessment (PISA). We find that grade retention has a negative impact on educational outcomes, but we confirm the importance of endogenous selection which makes observed differences between repeaters and nonrepeaters appear about 14% lower than they actually are. The effect on scores of repeating is much smaller (–10% of nonrepeaters’ average) than the counterfactual reduction that nonrepeaters would suffer had they been retained as repeaters (–24% of their average). Furthermore, those who repeated a grade during primary education suffered more than those who repeated a grade in secondary school, although the effect of repeating at both times is, as expected, larger.     

The role of intergenerational mobility in internal migration

This paper investigates the role of intergenerational mobility in the internal migration decisions of families. The geographic variation in intergenerational mobility suggests that if parents value their children's human capital accumulation and future outcomes, they would have an incentive to move to areas with a higher upward mobility. To identify the effect of intergenerational mobility on family migration, we first use an instrumental variable approach, based on a heteroskedastic covariance restriction, which addresses measurement-error and omitted-variable biases. Then, we apply the semiparametric maximum score estimation method to our empirical model, which yields a consistent estimator when families' choice sets are partially observed. We find that highly educated families with school-aged children choose areas that favor upward mobility. Our welfare analysis indicates that a unit increase in the absolute upward mobility of a commuting zone is equivalent to approximately a $722 higher mean wage in the local labor market.     

Blinder–Oaxaca decomposition for Tobit models

In this article, a decomposition method for Tobit models is derived, which allows the differences in observed outcome variables between two groups to be decomposed into a part that is explained by differences in observed characteristics and a part attributable to differences in the estimated coefficients. Monte Carlo simulations demonstrate that in the case of censored dependent variables this decomposition method produces more reliable results than the conventional Blinder–Oaxaca decomposition for linear regression models. Finally, our method is applied to a decomposition of the gender wage gap using German data.     

Training, Wages, and Sample Selection: Estimating Sharp Bounds on Treatment Effects

This paper empirically assesses the wage effects of the Job Corps program, one of the largest federally funded job training programs in the U.S. Even with the aid of a randomized experiment, the impact of a training program on wages is difficult to study because of sample selection, a pervasive problem in applied microeconometric research. Wage rates are only observed for those who are employed, and employment status itself may be affected by the training program. This paper develops an intuitive trimming procedure for bounding average treatment effects in the presence of sample selection. In contrast to existing methods, the procedure requires neither exclusion restrictions nor a bounded support for the outcome of interest. Identification results, estimators, and their asymptotic distribution are presented. The bounds suggest that the program raised wages, consistent with the notion that the Job Corps raises earnings by increasing human capital, rather than solely through encouraging work. The estimator is generally applicable to typical treatment evaluation problems in which there is nonrandom sample selection/attrition.     

COHABITATION AND THE MEASUREMENT OF CHILD POVERTY

We use 1990 U.S. Census of Population data to calculate what poverty rates would have been if cohabitors were treated in the same manner as married couples. We find that the official treatment of cohabiting partners as separate family units overstated the extent of poverty in 1989 among all children by about three percent. Only about 11 percent of the observed rise in child poverty between 1969 and 1989 would be eliminated if the Census Bureau made this change in its definition of the family. We estimate a logistic regression model of the likelihood that poor, cohabiting families with children would be reclassified as non-poor if the cohabitor's income were included in family income.     

When outcome heterogeneously matters for selection: a generalized selection correction estimator

The classical Heckman (1976, 1979) selection correction estimator (heckit) is misspecified and inconsistent, if an interaction of the outcome variable with an explanatory variable matters for selection. To address this specification problem, a full information maximum likelihood (FIML) estimator and a simple two-step estimator are developed. Monte Carlo (MC) simulations illustrate that the bias of the ordinary heckit estimator is removed by these generalized estimation procedures. Along with OLS and ordinary heckit, we apply these estimators to data from a randomized trial that evaluates the effectiveness of financial incentives for reducing obesity. Estimation results indicate that the choice of the estimation procedure clearly matters.     

A NOTE ON SEMIPARAMETRIC ESTIMATION OF FINITE MIXTURES OF DISCRETE CHOICE MODELS WITH APPLICATION TO GAME THEORETIC MODELS*

We view a game abstractly as a semiparametric mixture distribution and study the semiparametric efficiency bound of this model. Our results suggest that a key issue for inference is the number of equilibria compared to the number of outcomes. If the number of equilibria is sufficiently large compared to the number of outcomes, root‐n consistent estimation of the model will not be possible. We also provide a simple estimator in the case when the efficiency bound is strictly above zero.     

Population dynamics and utilitarian criteria in the Lucas–Uzawa Model

This paper introduces population growth in the Uzawa–Lucas model, analyzing the implications of the choice of the welfare criterion on the model's outcome. Traditional growth theory assumes population growth to be exponential, but this is not a realistic assumption (see Brida and Accinelli, 2007). We model exogenous population change by a generic function of population size. We show that a unique non-trivial equilibrium exists and the economy converges towards it along a saddle path, independently of population dynamics. What is affected by the type of population dynamics is the dimension of the stable manifold, which can be one or two, and when the equilibrium is reached, which can happen in finite time or asymptotically. Moreover, we show that the choice of the utilitarian criterion will be irrelevant on the equilibrium of the model, if the steady state growth rate of population is null, as in the case of logistic population growth. Then, we show that a closed-form solution for the transitional dynamics of the economy (both in the case population dynamics is deterministic and stochastic) can be found for a certain parameter restriction.     

Econometrics for Evaluations: An Introduction to Recent Developments

There has recently been a rapid expansion of interest in the econometrics of program evaluation, both within Australia and around the world. We provide a review of the key issues and recent developments in this field. A central feature of recent developments is the attempt to allow for program impacts that vary across individuals. This contrasts with earlier econometric approaches that implicitly assumed a homogeneous treatment effect. We survey alternative nonexperimental estimation strategies and note that they can be characterised by (1) an assumption about how untreated outcomes vary across individuals: this assumption in turn suggests how the counter-factual untreated outcomes of program participants should be estimated, and (2) the way in which the estimator aggregates or weights the program impacts of different individuals in the treatment group. We also emphasise the importance of good data.     

Optimal Reimbursement and Malpractice Sharing Rules in Health Care Markets

When health care sponsors such as HMOs or PPOs can use "utilization reviews" in order to indicate to the provider what type of treatment to administer to the patient based upon a diagnosis that is established by the provider, it is possible to implement the "first best" levels of investment in cost control efforts and in aggressiveness of treatment. The implementation of the "first best" requires the utilization of the prospective reimbursement rule accompanied by the removal of all malpractice liabilities from the provider. In contrast, when the type of treatment cannot be enforced by the payer, implementation of the "first best" is not feasible if the payer places a higher weight on the welfare of consumers than that of providers in its objective function. In this case, the reimbursement scheme deviates from the prospective rule, and the provider assumes liability to part of the cost incurred by society as a result of unsuccessful medical outcomes. When the payer can enforce treatment only partially by establishing bounds on the range of acceptable treatments, a minimal acceptable standard will be established and the outcome will be an intermediate case between the above two extremes.     

DYNAMIC STATUS EFFECTS,SAVINGS, AND INCOME INEQUALITY

This article advances the hypothesis that the intensity of status preferences depends negatively on the average wealth of society (endogenous dynamic status effect), in accordance with empirical evidence. Our theory replicates the contradictory historical facts of an increasing saving rate along with declining returns to capital over time. By affecting the dynamics of the saving rate, the dynamic status effect raises inequality, thereby providing a behavioral mechanism for the observed diverse dynamics of income inequality across countries. In countries in which the dynamic status effect is strong (weak), inequality rises (declines) over time in response to a positive productivity shock.     

Contestability, Complementary Inputs and Contracting: The Case of Harbour Towage

It has been argued that competitive tendering for contracts can be used to overcome problems of natural monopoly and to make markets 'contestable'. The recent Productivity Commission (2002) report into harbour towage in Australia noted the potential benefits of competition for contracts. Using the example of harbour towage, we investigate these claims when competitive tendering involves one segment of a vertical production chain. We show that direct customer contracting will not result in a perfectly contestable outcome if there is a complementary input provider with market power. We consider whether this situation improves when customers delegate the contracting process. Delegation only improves the outcome from the customers' perspective if the authority is able to receive side payments from the towage operators. Such side payments a priori would appear to be against the interests of the customers. We show, however, that side payments help the port authority to overcome the problems of market power, benefiting both the port authority and the customers. Further, these contracting outcomes are socially preferred to the unregulated outcome where port authorities and towage operators set prices and quality independently. This analysis sheds light and generally supports the Productivity Commission's recommendations.     

Economic evaluation of the use of Innohep® in the treatment of acute pulmonary embolism

Summary

This article reports the cost implications of using Innohep® (tinzaparin), a low-molecular-weight heparin (LMWH), instead of intravenous (iv) unfractionated heparin (UFH) in the treatment of acute pulmonary embolism (PE). The expected cost per patient, including initial treatment costs and the cost of managing adverse outcomes (but excluding costs common to both regimes) was found to be £191.81 for patients treated with UFH and £186.64 for patients treated with Innohep® (costs estimated as of end 1997). Therefore, the use of Innohep® reduces the expected cost per patient by £5.17 or 3%. When the costs of managing adverse outcomes occurring after cessation of UFH/Innohep® therapy are excluded, expected costs per patient for UFH and Innohep® treatment are £136.70 and £120.22, respectively. Therefore, when outcomes not directly attributable to the choice between UFH and Innohep® treatment are reduced, the use of Innohep® reduces the expected cost per patient by £16.48 or 12%.

Innohep® reduces costs through greater ease of administration, by removing the need for extensive laboratory monitoring and by saving staff time. These results are generally robust to variations in key assumptions. Sensitivity analysis demonstrates that if patients treated with Innohep® can be discharged from hospital earlier, with their treatment continuing at home, substantial cost savings may result.     

Macroeconomic Volatility during Argentina’s Import Substitution Stage

In this article, I analyze the characteristics and sources of macroeconomic volatility for the case of Argentina during the import substitution industrialization (ISI). This case is particularly relevant since Argentina has been one of the most extreme examples of macroeconomic volatility in the Latin American region. I estimated a small vector auto regression (VAR) to approximate the main dynamic features of the Argentine economy during the ISI: the balance of trade improving but the 'contractionary' effect of devaluation, and the short-run persistence of 'political-economic' switching regimes. Counterfactual experimentation showed the impossibility of reaching a complete economic stabilization during the historical period under analysis and the existence of sharp tradeoffs among the internal balance, the external balance and policy volatility. It also indicated that at least a half of the observed policy volatility could be attributed to exogenous shocks. These results suggest that the performance of the Argentine economy during the ISI could have been better under more rational policy management but, surprisingly, that the improvement would not be as large as one would expect.