A comment on “School choice: An experimental study” [J. Econ. Theory 127 (1) (2006) 202-231]

We show that one of the main results in Chen and Sönmez (2006, 2008) [6] and [7] does no longer hold when the number of recombinations is sufficiently increased to obtain reliable conclusions. No school choice mechanism is significantly superior in terms of efficiency.     

Corrigendum to “School choice: An experimental study” [J. Econ. Theory 127 (1) (2006) 202-231]

We correct an inconsistency in the efficiency comparison reported in [Y. Chen, T. Sönmez, School choice: An experimental study, J. Econ. Theory 127 (1) (2006) 202-231]. The efficiency comparison of the three school choice mechanisms in our paper is based on recombinant estimation with an identical set of 10 tie-breakers, while the statistics reported in Table 7 is computed using 14,400 tie-breakers.     

Interlinkage and Generous Tit‐for‐Tat Strategy

We investigate an infinitely‐repeated prisoners' dilemma with imperfect monitoring and consider the possibility that the interlinkage of the players' distinct activities enhances implicit collusion. We show a necessary and sufficient condition for the existence of a generous tit‐for‐tat Nash equilibrium. Such an equilibrium, if it exists, is unique. This equilibrium achieves approximate efficiency when monitoring is almost perfect, where the discount factors are fixed.     

Imitation—theory and experimental evidence

We introduce a generalized theoretical approach to study imitation and subject it to rigorous experimental testing. In our theoretical analysis we find that the different predictions of previous imitation models are mainly explained by different informational assumptions, and to a lesser extent by different behavioral rules. In a laboratory experiment we test the different theories by systematically varying information conditions. We find significant effects of seemingly innocent changes in information. Moreover, the generalized imitation model predicts the differences between treatments well. The data provide support for imitation on the individual level, both in terms of choice and in terms of perception. Furthermore, individuals’ propensity to imitate more successful actions is increasing in payoff differences.     

Misspecification in Dynamic Panel Data Models and Model‐Free Inferences

This paper discusses the issue of model misspecification and model‐free methods in dynamic panel data analysis. We primarily review existing results, but also provide several new results. When the dynamics are homogeneous, we show that several widely used estimators for panel first‐order autoregressive AR(1) models converge to first‐order autocorrelation, even under misspecification. Under heterogeneity, these estimators converge to the ratio of the means of the first‐order autocovariances and variances. We also discuss the estimation of autocovariances, the estimation of panel AR(∞) models, and the estimation of the distribution of the heterogeneous mean and autocovariances.     

Modified Quasi‐Likelihood Ratio Test for Regime Switching

In this paper we propose a modified quasi‐likelihood ratio test of the null hypothesis of one regime against the alternative of two regimes in Markov regime‐switching models. The asymptotic distribution of the proposed test statistic is a simple function of Gaussian random variables, and the inference is no more complicated than in the standard case. Our simulations show that the proposed test has good finite sample size and power that are comparable to the quasi‐likelihood ratio test of Cho and White. We apply our test to stock returns and Japanese policy functions.     

Public randomization in the repeated prisoner’s dilemma game with local interaction

We consider a situation in which each agent observes only their neighbor’s actions and locally interacts with them by playing prisoner’s dilemma games. Introducing a public randomization, we construct an equilibrium which sustains cooperation and in which cooperation eventually resumes after any history.     

Decision-making in competitive framings—Strategic behavior of chess players in mini-ultimatum game chess puzzles

We introduce a competitive framing in the mini-ultimatum game utilizing chess puzzles. Therein, our chess playing participants accept low offers significantly more often compared to a neutral framing. We conclude that in familiar competitive surroundings egoistic behavior is more acceptable.     

Coordination on saddle-path solutions: the eductive viewpoint—linear multivariate models

We examine local strong rationality (LSR) in multivariate models with both forward-looking expectations and predetermined variables. Given hypothetical common knowledge restrictions that the dynamics will be close to those of a specified minimal state variable solution, we obtain eductive stability conditions for the solution to be LSR. In the saddlepoint stable case the saddle-path solution is LSR provided the model is structurally homogeneous across agents. However, the eductive stability conditions are strictly more demanding when heterogeneity is present, as can be expected in multisectoral models. Heterogeneity is thus a potentially important source of instability even in the saddlepoint stable case.     

Unemployment duration and economic incentives—a quasi random-assignment approach

We investigate how economic incentives and spell duration affect hazard rates out of insured unemployment. We take into account that insured unemployment not always ends in employment, but also in disability, training programs, or benefit sanctions. Our empirical basis is Norwegian register data containing variation in economic incentives and spell duration similar to that of random-assignment experiments. We find that the employment and benefit-sanction hazards are negatively affected by the unemployment insurance replacement ratio, but that the effects vary considerably among individuals. There is negative duration dependence in the employment hazard and positive duration dependence in the disability hazard.     

Personality and cooperation in finitely repeated prisoner’s dilemma games

We investigate the role personality plays in Finitely Repeated Prisoner’s Dilemma (FRPD) games. Even after controlling for demographic factors such as race, course of study, and cognitive ability, we find that cooperative behavior is significantly related to the Big Five personality trait Agreeableness. A one standard deviation increase in agreeableness increases the predicted probability of cooperation by a subject with modal demographic characteristics from 67.9% to 80.6%.     

An Improved Two‐step Regularization Scheme for Spot Volatility Estimation

We are concerned with the problem of spot volatility estimation in the presence of microstructure noise. We introduce an estimator based on the technique of multi‐step regularization. A preliminary form for such an estimator was proposed in Ogawa (2008) and was shown to work in a real‐time manner. However, the main drawback of this scheme is that it needs a lot of observation data. The aim of the present paper is to introduce an improvement to this scheme, such that the modified estimator can work more efficiently and with a data set of smaller size. The technical aspects of implementation of the proposed scheme and its performance on simulated data are analysed. The scheme is tested against other spot volatility estimators, namely a realized volatility type estimator, the Fourier estimator and three kernel estimators.     

INTER‐TEMPORAL LABOUR FORCE PARTICIPATION AMONG MARRIED WOMEN IN JAPAN*

This paper investigates the components that affect inter‐temporal labour force participation among married women in Japan. We estimate linear probability models and simple, dynamic probit models with a variety of specifications. We find that serially correlated transitory errors have a significant effect on the participation behaviour of married women, while the first‐order lagged dependent variable has no significant effect. The result that serially correlated transitory errors influence married women's inter‐temporal labour force participation suggests that exogenous rather than endogenous causes have a significant effect on long‐term economic disparity among married women.     

On estimation of the CES production function—Revisited

Estimation of the non-linear Constant Elasticity of Scale (CES) function is generally considered problematic due to convergence problems and unstable and/or meaningless results. These problems often arise from a non-smooth objective function with large flat areas, the discontinuity of the CES function where the elasticity of substitution is one, and possibly significant rounding errors where the elasticity of substitution is close to one. We suggest three (combinable) solutions that alleviate these problems and improve the reliability and stability of the results.     

Saving–investment Association and Regional Capital Mobility in China: A Nonparametric Panel Approach

Using a nonparametric panel data model, this paper estimates the degree of time‐varying and province‐specific capital mobility in China during 1970–2006. We estimate the savings–investment association, that is, the savings retention rate à la Feldstein and Horioka, as a measure of capital mobility. We also split the total savings (investment) into private and government savings (investment) to explore the role of government in improving capital mobility. Over time, we find an improvement in capital mobility after the mid‐1990s. Across provinces, we observe higher capital mobility in eastern/coastal regions. From the 1990s, the government is found to play a less important role in promoting capital mobility. Across provinces, the government is found to be more important in either the municipalities (Shanghai and Beijing) or the less developed inland provinces.     

Inflation in South Africa. A long memory approach

This paper deals with the analysis of the inflation rate in South Africa for the time period 1970M1-2008M12. We use long range dependence techniques and the results show that inflation in this country is a covariance stationary process with long range dependence, with an order of integration ranging in the interval (0, 0.5). Policy implications are derived.     

What does “clean” really mean? The implicit framing of decontextualized experiments

It is standard in experimental economics to use decontextualized designs where payoff structures are presented using neutral language. Here we show that cooperation in such a neutrally framed Prisoner’s Dilemma is equivalent to a PD framed as contributing to a cooperative endeavour. Conversely, there is substantially less cooperation in a PD framed as a competition. We conclude that in a decontextualized context, our participants by default project a cooperative frame onto the payoff structure.     

Exclusion via Non‐Exclusive Contracts

We establish that non‐linear vertical contracts can allow an incumbent to exclude an upstream rival in a setting that does not rely on the exclusivity of the incumbent's contracts with downstream firms or any limits on distribution channels available to the incumbent or rival. The optimal contract we describe is a three‐part quantity discounting contract that involves the payment of an allowance to a downstream distributor and a marginal wholesale price below the incumbent's marginal cost for sufficiently large quantities. The optimal contract is robust to allowing parties to renegotiate contracts in case of entry.     

Explosive U.S. budget deficit

In this study, we present new evidence that the postwar U.S. federal budget deficit was explosive in nature. Because of the government's inevitable attempts to reduce high or rapidly growing budget deficits, the deficit may contain a substantial component that periodically collapses, which renders the standard unit root tests biased toward stationarity. We apply a newly proposed recursive unit root test for explosiveness, which is known to be powerful to the periodically collapsing component. Although the evidence for explosiveness we found herein is not overwhelming, this study should at the very least serve as a warning against a blind application of standard unit root tests to budget deficits, which may harbor components that periodically collapse.     

Excess demand functions with incomplete markets—a global result

The purpose of this paper is to give a global characterization of excess demand functions in a two-period exchange economy with incomplete real asset markets. We show that continuity, homogeneity and Walras’ law characterize the aggregate excess demand functions on any compact price set which maintains the dimension of the budget set.