交易制度对我国股市波动区制与VaR度量的影响

本文通过对我国股票市场的实证研究,发现由于我国股市早期波幅较大且无涨跌停板限制的交易制度,SWARCH模型较马尔可夫区制转移方差模型对我国股票市场的波动区制有更好的描述;在考虑未来即将推出的融资触券交易制度下,马尔可夫区制转移方差模型对VaR有更好的度量.同时马尔可夫区制转移方差模型较SWARCH模型还有估计结果稳定和收敛快的优势.     

Market Leadership Volatility in Japanese Industries

The paper computes the extent of marketleadership volatility by industry, and then examinesthe determinants of volatility in Japanesemanufacturing industries. Volatility varies fromindustry to industry, and changes over time in manyindustries. Concentration coexists with lessvolatility, suggesting that the former has a policysignificance. Concentration change has a significantand positive effect. Exports have avolatility-promoting effect, but imports have noeffect. Industry size tends to decrease volatility.The effect of industry growth is not found.Advertising, R&D and distribution channel have nodefinite effect respectively as well.     

Product Market Volatility and the Adjustment of Earnings to Risk

This investigation of compensating wage differentials uses an instrument for the risk of unemployment, namely, the industry-specific shipment volatility, to address some empirical anomalies found in the literature. I find that risk premiums for the risk of unemployment range from 8.5 to 19 percent when the covariance between shipment volatility and total manufacturing employment is taken into account. Covariance risk requires positive premiums that range from 1.4 to 14 percent depending on the specification.     

A Spatiotemporal Autoregressive Price Index for the Paris Office Property Market

This article applies the spatiotemporal hedonic approach to the analysis of office transaction prices in the Paris property market ( i.e ., central Paris and its inner suburbs). The analysis focuses primarily on the market's two main business districts (the Central Business District and the La Défense District). We find that spatial and temporal dependence effects are strongly present in these submarkets. Additionally, we propose a hybrid method for incorporating a temporal regime switch into the spatiotemporal autoregressive model. The regime switching around 1997 ( i.e. , in the presence of temporal heterogeneity) substantially affects the significance of spatial and temporal dependences. Finally, we build a new price index that incorporates both spatiotemporal dependences and temporal heterogeneity. This index differs strongly from the usual hedonic price index.     

知识产权计量属性的新选择

知识经济是智能经济、创新经济、全球化经济。在这样的经济形态下,知识产权更具有了时代所赋予它的一些特点。现代会计诞生以来历史成本计量属性在会计计量中就一直占据统治地位,其优点是显而易见的。但是随着知识经济时代的到来,历史成本计量属性的缺陷变得日益明显。由于历史成本计量属性存在诸多缺陷,因此可以考虑采取多种计量属性模式,对知识产权的计量属性进行重新选择。     

On the Value of Environmental Certification in the Commercial Real Estate Market

A significant part of the global carbon externality stems from the real estate sector. Environmental certification is often hailed as an effective means to resolve the information asymmetry that may prevent markets from effectively pricing the energy performance of buildings. This study analyzes the adoption and financial outcomes of environmentally certified commercial real estate over time. We document that nearly 40% of space in the 30 largest U.S. commercial real estate markets holds some kind of environmental certification in 2014, as compared to less than 5% in 2005. Tracking the rental growth of 26,212 office buildings, we measure the performance of environmentally certified real estate over time. We document that certified office buildings, on average, have slightly higher rental, occupancy and pricing levels, but do not outperform non‐certified buildings in rental growth over the 2004–2013 period. Further performance attribution analysis indicates that local climate conditions, local energy prices and the extent of certification lead to significant heterogeneity in market pricing. On aggregate, these findings provide some evidence on the efficiency of the market in the adoption and capitalization of environmental characteristics in the commercial real estate market.     

Supply Adjustments to Demand Shocks in the Commercial Real Estate Market

This paper contributes a theoretical investigation of real estate supply adjustments in the commercial real estate market. Simple theoretical linkages between the goods market (the demand side) and the space market (the supply side) are developed and then used to explain the optimal supply decisions of space producers. Propositions relating to how space production decisions are made under conditions of demand certainty, demand uncertainty and free entry are derived from optimization models. Under demand certainty, the adjustment of space supply is shown to be affected by whether an exogenous shock is perceived as mild or disastrous. Under demand uncertainty, construction based on pent-up demand is shown to be suboptimal.     

我国商品房市场量价关系的实证分析

目前对房地产市场的研究主要集中于房价,而对量价关系的研究较少。鉴于此,文章利用1998～2008年的全国商品房季度数据,对我国商品房市场量价关系进行实证研究,并得出以下结论：从长期来看,我国商品房市场的交易量与价格之间存在协整关系;因果检验显示交易量是价格的格兰杰原因,反之则不成立;通过脉冲响应函数发现外界冲击导致了量价的一致波动且交易量对外界冲击的响应比房价更敏感。     

The Risk and Return of Commercial Real Estate: A Property Level Analysis

I compare the performance of the index‐based time series approach and the cross‐sectional approach in estimating factor loadings of nontraded assets, and show that the latter likely provides less biased and more efficient estimates. I then use the cross‐sectional approach to estimate the loadings of privately owned commercial real estate on the Fama and French (1993) factors, the Pastor and Stambaugh (2003) liquidity factor, and two bond market factors, using a sample of 14,115 properties in the 1977–2012 period. I find statistically significant loadings, of which the signs seem consistent across property types, but the magnitude varies. Using the time series approach on the same data, I find insignificant loadings on virtually all factors. To investigate the sources of the weak results from the time series approach, I conduct a Monte Carlo simulation in which both approaches are correctly specified and indices can be estimated perfectly. Simulation results suggest that the cross‐sectional approach provides more accurate estimates under reasonable market conditions.     

竞争与垄断条件下市场结构熵测度模型研究

利用信息论和熵原理构建市场结构熵模型,测度了完全竞争、垄断竞争、寡头垄断和完全垄断4种市场结构熵,并比较了这四种市场结构熵。认为竞争条件下,寡头垄断市场结构熵最小,而完全垄断市场结构熵大于或小于寡头垄断市场结构熵,是市场调节失灵的市场结构。从较长的时间跨度和动态竞争角度来看,提出寡头垄断市场结构运行效率要高于其他类型的市场结构。     

基于百度指数的碳交易市场波动率的实证研究

碳交易市场波动率研究主要基于成交量数据对收益率GARCH效应的解释作用。在互联网时代可以有更新更为有效的方法来衡量碳交易市场的波动性。基于“碳交易”词条的百度指数,以湖北碳交易市场中的收益率为样本,本文通过对比使用引入成交量和搜索量的IGARCH（1,1）模型,实证研究发现传统的量价方程的确没有解释力,而百度指数可以对收益率的GARCH效应做出部分合理的解释,这可以在某种程度上反映湖北碳交易市场的交易信息流。     

Credit Restrictions and the Market for Commercial Real Estate Loans

This paper develops a model of the market for commercial real estate loans based on the variables used by investors and lenders in property decision-making: the income capitalization (cap) rate, the debt-coverage ratio and the loan-to-value ratio. Empirical results for aggregate United States real estate originations and commitments for 1970–93 indicate that loan demand is sensitive to the cap rate and to building permit issuance. The dominant criterion used by lenders is the debt-coverage ratio as opposed to the loan-to-value ratio, a finding which may have implications for underwriting standards and credit policy.     

Tax Structure and Natural Vacancy Rates in the Commercial Real Estate Market

A number of studies have postulated that the Economic Recovery Tax Act of 1981 (ERTA 1981) was responsible for the dramatic overbuilding that occurred between 1981 and 1986, primarily because returns became less sensitive to "real" demand. While there has been much research on how equilibrium or "natural" vacancy rates in the real estate market are determined, beginning with Rosen and Smith's seminal paper in 1983, virtually none of this work has dealt with the impact of the tax environment. This study makes an initial attempt to answer this question with respect to equilibrium vacancies resulting from tenant (or owner) turnover. A formal model is developed that considers as an objective function the landlord's desire to maximize his/her after-tax equity returns in an environment of monopolistic competition in which individual projects face downward-sloping demand curves, owing to market conditions and a degree of heterogeneity among tenants in search costs or some other characteristic. The natural vacancy rate is shown not to depend directly upon the tax environment, but to depend indirectly upon it only to the extent that equilibrium market rents are lowered. The nature of the vacancy response depends critically upon the shape of the tenant demand response relationship upon its transition to a lower-rent region. This response is interactive with the degree of turnover and supply responsiveness within individual markets.     

大力推进产权市场交易品种创新

目前，产权市场大量交易品种仍以非证券化的实物形态出现，从而使得产权市场配置资源的功能难以发挥。因此，应大力推行产权市场交易品种创新，积极发展股权、基金、资产证券化产品的交易。文章对此作了深入探讨。     

试论需求侧管理措施对电网负荷特性的影响

电力需求侧管理有改善电网负荷特性的作用.这里定性分析了需求侧管理措施的行政措施、经济措施、技术措施对电网负荷特性的影响.     

我国商业银行市场结构现状分析及其优化研究

本文基于我国13家商业银行2000-2006年的面板数据。对我国商业银行业市场结构、绩效等情况进行实证分析。得出我国商业银行业市场集中度趋于下降.我国银行的垄断状态逐渐被打破。在商业银行市场结构与银行绩效的回归结果上表现为:伴随着市场集中度下降,各商业银行绩效得到提高;商业银行资产规模对其绩效带来负的影响;银行管理水平、创利能力对其绩效产生显著的正向影响;产品差异化与银行绩效则显示弱的正向关系。本文认为完善银行业微观基础、降低政策性市场壁垒、提高银行差异化产品的服务能力、拓展银行国际业务等是我国银行市场结构优化的方向。     

Immigration and the Property Market: Evidence from England and Wales

This article investigates the link between immigration and property markets in England and Wales. Evidence from fixed effects and shift‐share–based instrumental variable regressions suggests that an increase in regional immigration, depending on the specification, either decreases prices at the lower end of the distribution up to the median or leaves them unchanged and has (almost) no effect on mean property prices or prices above the median. The evidence suggests that these findings can be explained through an interaction between the markets for rented and owned properties as well as through changes in the usage of housing space.     

关矛房贷利率上调对房地产市场影响的几点分析

本文在2006年4月28日央行出台新的住房贷款利率政策以控制目前房地产市场过热现象的背景下，对房地产政策加以分析。通过对以往政策的回顾和新出台的以金融手段抑制需求的政策的分析，得出长期控制房地产市场过热问题的关键是控制供给政策和控制需求政策的配套运用。