Dynamic Multi‐Activity Contests*

We develop a model of dynamic multi‐activity contests. Players simultaneously choose efforts in long‐run activities, observe each other's efforts in these activities, and then simultaneously choose efforts in short‐run activities. A player's long‐run and short‐run efforts complement each other in determining the player's probability of winning. We compare the outcomes of this two‐stage model to those of the corresponding model in which players choose efforts in all activities simultaneously. Interestingly, effort expenditures are always lower in the sequential multi‐activity contest than in the simultaneous multi‐activity contest. The implications of this result for the organization of military, litigation, innovation, academic, and sporting contests are highlighted.     

A NOTE ON NEGATIVE ELECTORAL ADVERTISING: DENIGRATING CHARACTER VS. PORTRAYING EXTREMISM

In this expository note, we extend the model of Harrington and Hess (1996) by incorporating valence advertising. There is a two‐candidate electoral contest. Candidates inherit a certain position indicating their ideological platform in an unidimensional policy space. They also inherit a certain valence index which is a comprehensive term for personal traits that are desirable to all voters such as integrity. The candidates can subsequently influence these using negative advertising with regard to both ideological and valence factors. We find that when the available resources are sufficiently small and certain reasonable assumptions are fulfilled, the candidate with the higher initial valence index will run a relatively personal campaign while the candidate with the lower initial valence index will run an ideological campaign.     

近50年来我国区域经济空间极化的变化趋势研究

首先利用新近发展的ER、TW指数,以人均实际国内生产总值为指标,从经济总量上,详细考察了1952-2000年我国省市区经济空间极化变化趋势;其次利用广义熵的可分解特性,进一步探讨了1952-2000年我国区域经济不均衡在沿海-内陆、南方-北方区、高城镇化-低城镇化地区等具体空间方向上的极化及其变化趋势。     

Strategic compromise,policy bundling and interest group power: Theory and evidence on education policy

Policy reforms are often multifaceted. In the rent-seeking literature policies are usually taken as one-dimensional. This paper models policy formation using a political contest with endogenous policy proposals containing two dimensions, e.g. access and quality of education. The two dimensions provide an opportunity to trade off one policy over another to make the lobbying opposition less aggressive. In a first stage, the government proposes a reform over the two policies, and in a second stage engages in a contest with an interest group over the enactment of the proposed reform. As a result, the government makes a compromise, under-proposing in the policy the interest group opposes and over-proposing in the policy the interest group desires. Effectively, there will be strategic bundling of desired policies with undesired ones in an attempt to increase enactment probability and overall utility. We study this prediction empirically using a newly complied dataset on education legislation in the states of California, Illinois and Texas. Results suggest that stronger opposition is associated with less quality reforms. Moreover, as predicted by the model, when bundling access reforms together with quality, the negative effect is counteracted.     

Fluctuations in convex models of endogenous growth, II: Business cycle properties

Using ideas from the endogenous growth literature, we present a model of the endogenous determination of productivity growth based on individual worker decisions about human capital investment. We calibrate a version of the model to match long run growth facts from the US and study the business cycle properties of this model. This approach offers improvements along several dimensions over standard exogenous growth methodologies. Most importantly, our stochastic endogenous growth model generates much greater serial correlation in output growth and labor supply volatility relative to its real business cycle counterpart. We conclude that using the extra discipline of reproducing the trend productivity growth features of the data endogenously constitutes an important missing component from the real business cycle approach.     

商业模式创新构念化研究回顾与理论构建：基于组合模型视角

诸多学者强调应加强商业模式创新概念研究，但真正意义上的概念解构研究却很少，使得理论界对于将商业模式创新视为构念依然存在颇多质疑。通过比较分析不同测量模型用于解构商业模式创新概念的适用程度，确立组合模型的高适用性地位，同时从理论层面详细探讨该模型视角下商业模式创新的定义、维度和类型。进一步地，综合考虑商业模式双重属性特征，以及商业模式与其它学科领域的内容交叉性，分析组合模型视角下商业模式创新测量指标构建方向。最后，构建组合模型视角下商业模式创新的构念化路径。具体来说，采用“经营方式创新+创造独特顾客价值”形式定义概念，以创造独特顾客价值为标准区分维度，进而综合经营框架与价值逻辑两种属性研究的测量指标开发量表；明确降低购买价格和提升支付意愿维度的内涵，广泛借鉴战略、营销及生产运营等领域知识，开发两个维度的测量量表。     

论习近平新时代中国特色社会主义思想的层次结构

习近平新时代中国特色社会主义思想是一个科学的理论体系,这个体系包含四个逻辑层次。对人的自由而全面发展的追求是这个科学体系的价值层,也是这个体系的核心;新发展理念是这个科学体系的理念层,是价值层到方法论层和制度实践层的中介和过渡环节;"五位一体"总体布局和"四个全面"战略布局是这个科学体系的方法论层,是连接价值层和制度实践层的中间环节;制度建设和社会实践是这个科学体系的制度实践层。     

When less is more: Rationing and rent dissipation in stochastic contests

This paper shows how to maximize revenue when a contest is noisy. We consider a case where two or more contestants bid for a prize in a stochastic contest where all bidders value the prize equally. We show that, whenever a Tullock contest yields under-dissipation, the auctioneer?s revenue can be increased by optimally fixing the number of tickets. In particular, in a stochastic contest with proportional probabilities, it is possible to obtain (almost) full rent dissipation. We test this hypothesis with a laboratory experiment. The results indicate that, as predicted, revenue is significantly higher in a lottery with rationing than in a standard lottery. On the other hand, an alternative rationing mechanism that does not limit total expenditures fails to increase revenue relative to a standard lottery.     

Entry into winner-take-all and proportional-prize contests: An experimental study

This experiment compares the performance of two contest designs: a standard winner-take-all tournament with a single fixed prize, and a novel proportional-payment design in which that same prize is divided among contestants by their share of total achievement. We find that proportional prizes elicit more entry and more total achievement than the winner-take-all tournament. The proportional-prize contest performs better by limiting the degree to which heterogeneity among contestants discourages weaker entrants, without altering the performance of stronger entrants. These findings could inform the design of contests for technological and other improvements, which are widely used by governments and philanthropic donors to elicit more effort on targeted economic and technological development activities.     

旅游减贫具有空间溢出效应吗?

针对现有文献缺乏旅游减贫多维效果及空间效应研究,本文基于多维贫困视角,运用2008—2017年中国30个省份的面板数据,构建了包含经济、教育、医疗、生活与环境五个维度的贫困减缓评价指标体系,并在地理距离矩阵和经济距离矩阵共同构成的综合嵌套矩阵的基础上,分别运用空间自相关检验、空间杜宾模型探究了各维度贫困减缓的空间分布特征及旅游发展对各维度贫困减缓的空间效应。主要结论有:(1)十年间,中国乡村旅游业发展水平呈现显著空间正向相关性,纳入空间效应的空间杜宾模型较好地揭示出区域间乡村旅游发展存在显著的空间溢出效应。(2)十年间,各维度的减贫效果亦呈现显著空间正向相关性,表明各维度减贫效果存在着空间集聚特征。(3)十年间,旅游发展对经济、生活、环境等维度的贫困均具有显著减缓作用,更重要的发现是旅游发展在这三个减贫维度上具有正向空间溢出效应。旅游发展对教育、医疗两个维度上贫困减缓的直接和间接效应均未通过显著性检验。(4)从空间异质性视角分析,旅游发展对经济减贫维度的空间溢出效应呈现出东部区域→中部区域→西部区域逐步递减规律;旅游发展对生活减贫维度和环境减贫维度的空间溢出效应均呈现出由东部区域→中部区域→西部区域逐渐增大特征。最后,论文就旅游减贫提出了相关政策建议。     

PERFORMANCE MEASUREMENT IN SOLIDARITY ECONOMY ORGANIZATIONS: THE CASE OF FAIR TRADE SHOPS IN ITALY

ABSTRACT: The aim of this paper is to introduce a multidimensional assessment model for organizations that have multiple goals and are not driven exclusively by profit. Therefore, it is an assessment method particularly suitable for social enterprises. In order to measure the efficiency of production units in each dimension, the Data Envelopment Analysis non‐parametric method is applied. Our case study is concerned with Fair Trade shops and members of the consortium Altromercato for which we collected variables that could be associated with input and output for the economic, socio‐cultural and organizational dimensions. The results of the analysis confirm the presence of economies of scale in the economic dimension but not in the socio‐cultural dimension. Moreover, our organizational analysis confirmed a low general professionalization. Our results also confirm, on the one hand, the more pronounced capacity of cooperatives to sell Fair Trade products compared to associations, which, on the other hand, have the tendency to achieve proportionately better results in the socio‐cultural dimension.     

Experimental comparison of multi-stage and one-stage contests

This article experimentally studies a two-stage elimination contest and compares its performance with a one-stage contest. Contrary to the theory, the two-stage contest generates higher revenue than the equivalent one-stage contest. There is significant over-dissipation in both stages of the two-stage contest and experience diminishes over-dissipation in the first stage but not in the second stage. Our experiment provides evidence that winning is a component in a subject's utility. A simple behavioral model that accounts for a non-monetary utility of winning can explain significant over-dissipation in both contests. It can also explain why the two-stage contest generates higher revenue than the equivalent one-stage contest.     

企业外部知识搜寻多维结构与创新质量关系研究

以63家美国医药上市企业和173家中国医药上市企业发明专利为样本，研究企业多维知识搜寻结构与创新质量的关系。结果表明：①不同搜寻结构对企业创新质量的影响存在差异性，尤其是同时沿着多个维度进行远距离知识搜寻能够显著提高企业创新质量；②各维度远距离搜寻对创新质量的影响不同，在中美医药企业之间也存在一定差异；③对美国医药企业而言，知识搜寻的3个维度对创新质量的影响程度依次为认知维度>时间维度>地理维度，而中国医药企业则是认知维度>地理维度>时间维度。     

ARDL bounds tests and robust inference for the long run relationship between real stock returns and inflation in Australia

This paper conducts an empirical investigation into the long run relationship between real stock returns and inflation in Australia by employing the ARDL bounds tests. There exists a stock return–inflation long run relationship, and the long run parameters are non-linear functions of those of the conditional error correction model. The OLS estimates of the latter model constitute the long run parameter estimates and their standard errors are estimated by delta methods. The long run model estimates so constructed can be biassed and inconsistent, and the delta method is derived assuming asymptotic normality, which does not hold in this investigation. In this paper, to overcome these limitations of the traditional methods, we employ the bias-corrected bootstrap method. As a consequence, the robust and reliable statistical inference can be made on the long run return–inflation relationship. The empirical results show that the expected inflation had no significant effect on real stock returns, while the observed inflation had a significant and negative effect. Furthermore, the data generating process of the returns–inflation relationship was not affected by the change in monetary policy regime in the early 1990s. These findings imply that Australian stocks have been very effective instruments for hedging against expected inflation. Because of the resilience of Australian economy to the current global financial and economic crisis, this finding has implications for long term domestic and foreign investors in Australia.     

Working time and labour demand in Finnish manufacturing: short-run and long-run effects

The effect of changes in the standard working time on employment and average hours is studied using pooled data from five Finnish manufacturing industries. The model is an error correction model, which makes it possible to separate short-run, reductions in standard hours increase employment. There is evidence that the long run effect of working time on employment has changed over time. In the 1970s reductions in hours have had positive long-run employment effects, but in the 1980s the positive short-run impact has been neutralized in the long run. Changes in standard hours do not influence the utilization rate of labour, which is defined as the ratio of overtime hours to standard hours. In the short run, the utilization rate is influenced by output changes.     

长江经济带城市群制造业高质量发展评析

长江经济带作为我国经济发展模式转型升级的战略性代表区域,其制造业的高质量发展与新常态下经济发展新旧动能切换、经济增速换档进程密切相关。基于制造业高质量发展的内涵,论文从保障支撑、绿色生态、品质品牌、经济效率、开放创新和民生共享6个维度构建长江经济带制造业高质量发展评价指标体系,测度长江经济带108个地级市域制造业的高质量发展水平。结果表明:长江经济带上中下游三个区域的制造业高质量发展水平极不均衡,呈现出从下游地区向上游地区依次递减的发展态势;从单一维度表现看,除了江苏在六大维度上发展相对均衡,其他省份在各维度上的测度结果呈现了明显的发展差异,再次验证了地区制造业高质量发展不均衡的结论。     

DIMENSIONS,TRANSACTIONS COSTS AND COALITIONS IN LEGISLATIVE VOTING*

Dimensional studies of Congressional voting have found a single dominant “ideological” dimension, while regression estimates find that constituency variables and party are dominant. Koford (1989b) recalibrated the dimensional studies, and found that several dimensions are important. This study reviews those findings, and then considers additional reasons why dimensional studies might understate the number of dimensions. It then examines the regression estimates for biases that overstate the number of dimensions. Overall, fewer dimensions are found than seem consistent with the wide variety of constituents' preferences on issues. A model is developed in which the transactions costs of building coalitions reduces the number of dimensions visible on roll-call votes below the underlying dimensionality of preferences in the issue space. When legislative parties build internal coalitions to pass and defeat bills, voting on randomly drawn bills has a single party-oriented dimension. Natural ideological dimensions are reinforced when parties write bills and logroll along natural lines of cohesion. Numerical examples suggest that these effects could be important, and suggest lines for empirical investigation of the underlying issue space.     

HUMAN CAPITAL ACCUMULATION,HOME PRODUCTION AND EQUILIBRIUM DYNAMICS*

In this paper, we construct a three‐sector endogenous growth model in which long‐run growth is propelled by human capital accumulation. We show that although the addition of a home sector to the standard two‐sector endogenous growth model preserves the well‐behaved balanced growth equilibrium properties, it generates new transitional dynamics around the balanced growth path. It is shown that, when there is a positive shock to physical capital, our model is more likely to exhibit paradoxical growth than are standard multisector endogenous growth models that exclude home production. Our analysis adds new results to those from the related literature on leisure.     

Asymmetric effect of exchange rate volatility on India's cross‐border trade: Evidence from global financial crisis and multiple threshold nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag model

This paper examines the asymmetric effect of exchange rate volatility on India's cross‐border trade with its major trading partners: Japan, Germany, the United States, and China. We extend previous studies in two ways. First, we examine whether global financial crisis changes the asymmetric effect of exchange rate volatility on India's cross‐border trade. Next, we divide exchange rate volatility into quintiles and examine the effect of each quintile on cross‐border trade by using the multiple threshold nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (MTNARDL) model. Our findings from standard nonlinear ARDL (NARDL) indicate that the asymmetric relationship between exchange rate volatility and cross‐border trade changes as a result of global financial crisis. In addition, findings from MTNARDL indicate that in short‐run, exchange rate volatility symmetrically affects India's cross‐border trade with all sample countries whereas in long‐run it asymmetrically affects cross‐border trade. Overall, these findings are very important for policy implications and open a new dimension to exchange rate volatility and trade flows.     

Market collusion and the politics of protection

This paper investigates the relationship between trade and competition policy within a model where market collusion and protectionist lobbying are themselves related. Collusion and lobbying are modeled as joint products of the same collective effort of firms. In equilibrium, firms cannot achieve greater cooperation in one dimension without reducing it in the other. A trade agreement that limits the effectiveness of lobbying may cause firms to increase market collusion, thereby increasing the domestic price. Thus, international trade agreements may run counter to the goals of competition policy. On the other side, a more restrictive competition policy is shown to either reduce the domestic price or reduce import protection. Thus, competition policy tends to promote trade policy goals. The reason is that restrictive competition policy undermines collusion at the source—it decreases the per-firm benefit to collusion relative to the gains from deviating—reducing firm cooperation in both dimensions.