我国利率市场化进程中的利率结构问题

本文阐述了在利率市场化过程中建立合理利率结构的重要性。文章在分析我国利率结构中现存的问题及其市场环境的基础上，提出发展货币市场和资本市场、完善利率结构以促进利率市场化、提高货币政策有效性的政策建议。     

利率市场化与上海国际金融中心建设

2000年5月,央行官员指出,中国利率管理体制改革的最终目标是:建立以市场资金供求为基础,以中央银行基准利率为调控核心,由市场资金供求决定各种利率水平的利率体制.总的思路是:先放开外币利率(2000年9月已实施),后放开本币的利率;先放开农村金融机构的利率,再放开城市金融机构的利率;先放开贷款利率,后放开存款利率.同时,发挥中央银行、银行同业公会在利率形成中的作用.此外,利率种类也可能简化.     

债券,利率市场化与货币市场

随着国内经济的发展,对资金的流动性要求更强了,这就依赖于具有高度流动性债券市场的发展。短期债务工具和由市场供求关系决定的市场利率在债券市场上扮演了重要的角色。发展以短期债券为金融工具的货币市场,逐步推动利率市场化,应是我国近期金融体制改革的一项重要内容。     

农村信用社利率市场化问题及对策研究

农村信用社率先实行利率市场化是中央银行的既定方针.根据中国人民银行的统一安排,从2002年3月起,在全国8个县(市)信用(联)社率先进行浮动利率改革试点工作.先行开放我国农村存贷款利率市场,既是对农信社进一步发展的一种推动,也是积极帮助农信社化解历史包袱,防范农村信用社金融风险,尽快恢复农信社服务"三农"地位作用与功能发挥的迫切需要.     

利率市场化:模型分析与政策启示

在利率市场化的实践不断深入、理论讨论逐步深入的背景下,本文建立了一个简单的货币经济模型,指出利率市场化和利率调整在宏观经济模型中的重要意义,进而对利率市场化的风险做了简单的评述并给予一定的政策建议。简单的货币经济模型现在我们建立一个货币经济模型来分析利率市场化和利率调整。假设经济体中存在着四个经济部门,银行系统、资本市场、企业与家庭。为了简化,这里先不考虑政府部门和中央银行的存在。首先,我们给出一个基本模型:GDP=W+d+r+p=C+S=C+I(公式1)W为代表工资,d代表折旧,r代表利息,p代表利润,C代表消费,S代表储蓄,I…     

中国利率市场化的改革路径

我们面临着WTO金融服务框架的硬约束,必须加大利率市场化改革的力度,充分发挥利率政策的作用,完善金融制度,提高抗金融危机的能力,建立以央行利率为基础、货币市场利率为中介、由市场供求决定金融机构存贷利率水平的市场利率体系,以提高我国金融体系的抗风险能力。目前,我国已具备利率市场化的基础条件,加快我国利率市场化进程的改革路径包括建立完备的金融经济信息库、进一步培育和发展货币市场、构建货币市场的宏观调控体系。     

利率市场化中的利率行为比较

当前,我国金融机构人民币贷款利率已经基本过渡到上限放开、实行管理的阶段,利率市场化改革逐步深入,市场对利率市场化的检验也已有了较为丰富的收获.本比较了信贷市场、货币市场和民间融资市场在此背景下的利率行为.     

利率市场化与资本市场发展

长期以来,政府主导下源自价格和市场的资金缺口造成了资本市场的发展滞后。利率市场化带来的资金自由定价和流通机制,有利于金融资源的优化配置与金融市场的公平竞争,并对资本市场的发展产生重大影响。当前,利率市场化改革进入攻坚阶段,在坚持既定的渐进和次序原则下,加快市场化的内在机制建设与配套改革,有助于推进资本市场的发展与开放。     

金融发展环境、利率市场化与债务融资决策

采用稳健OLS回归方法对利率市场化与债务融资决策关系进行研究显示,较之国有企业,民营企业债务融资决策受利率市场化影响长期借款比例显著降低;较之利率管制时期,在利率市场化时期处于金融环境较好地区企业无论是债务融资成本还是长期借款比例均显著降低;此外,在利率市场化时期企业的长期借款比例与债务融资成本受地区金融发展环境差异的影响减弱。这说明利率市场化改革起到了赋予金融机构竞争手段、改善金融竞争环境以及削弱地区金融环境差异的政策效应。     

中国利率市场的价格发现——对国债现货、期货以及利率互换市场的研究

本文采用信息份额模型和基于向量自回归(VAR)模型的格兰杰因果检验,研究了国债现货、国债期货和利率互换三个市场之间的价格发现机制。信息份额模型表明,从整体来看利率互换相对于国债期货和国债现货都具有信息优势,而国债期货相对于国债现货具有信息优势。另外,国债期货的价格发现能力相对于另外两个市场都在随时间增强。格兰杰因果检验结果显示,利率互换在价格发现中单向引领国债期货以及国债现货,国债期货单向引领国债现货。所有结果一致表明, 利率互换和国债期货这两种利率衍生产品在引导中国利率市场价格发现中发挥了重要作用。     

Interest Rate Asymmetries in Long-Term Loan and Deposit Markets

Studies of U.S. loan and deposit markets have found that consumer interest rates respond asymmetrically to changes in market rates. If this finding is repeated across many different consumer finance product markets, then it could have important implications for the transmission mechanism of monetary policy. This paper tests for significant interest rate asymmetries in consumer finance markets that differ markedly from those examined in the existing literature. The main result of this paper is to reject the hypothesis of significant asymmetries in most (but not all) of the longer-term loan and deposit markets examined in Canada and the United States. This indicates that the explanations for asymmetries given in the literature are not generalizable across different product markets in different countries.     

Interest Rate Risk of European Financial Corporations

We investigate the interest rate exposure of large European financial corporations' equity returns. For the period from January 1982 to March 1995 we estimate multifactor index models to examine the sensitivity of equity returns to market index returns and domestic as well as global interest rate movements. In addition, we specify an APT‐model to test whether an exposure to interest rate movements is rewarded in the cross‐section of expected returns. In the four European markets both domestic and global interest rate shifts constitute driving forces of stock returns beyond the influence of the domestic market indices. However, the exposure to interest rate movements does not seem to be rewarded in the same fashion among the markets.     

对民间金融利率特性的分析

本文通过分析发现,民间金融的利率因组织形式不同、地域不同、借贷对象及用途不同而表现出不同的特性,但都具有明显高于正规金融利率的特点.     

培育和发展金融资本促进我国金融业改革

作为世界贸易组织成员国，在经济全球化、全球金融市场一体化和金融自由化的大环境中培育和发展金融资本，是我国金融业的发展趋势，也是更为适合的改革途径。本文试图从金融资本理论出发，探讨这一改革途径的必要性、可能性和发展思路。     

银行账户利率风险的利率冲击情景构建研究——基于金融市场利率数据

在银行账户利率风险管理实践中,风险计量涉及两个重要环节:风险计量方法和风险参数设计。其中,风险参数设计主要指如何构建利率冲击情景,包括关键利率选择和冲击程度。目前,监管部门和商业银行普遍采用巴塞尔委员会于2004年在《利率风险管理与监管原则》中提出的200个基点标准利率冲击法,但这一简单的冲击情景远远不能解释复杂的市场环境。如何构建利率冲击情景以准确衡量银行账户利率风险,成为监管部门和商业银行共同面临的挑战。本文参考国际监管改革的最新进展,运用国内金融市场的利率历史数据,探索构建了以国内利率环境为基准的利率冲击情景,为准确衡量国内银行真实利率风险水平夯实了基础。     

Interest Rate Risk and the Forward Premium Anomaly in Foreign Exchange Markets

This paper shows that even adjusted for the time-varying risk premiums implied by the yield curves across countries, uncovered interest parity is still strongly rejected by the data. Moreover, factors that predict the excess bond returns are found not significant at all in predicting the foreign exchange returns. These results reject the joint restrictions on the exchange rate and interest rates imposed by dynamic term-structure models, suggesting that foreign exchange markets and bond markets may not be fully integrated and we have to look beyond interest rate risk in order to understand the exchange rate anomaly.     

Financial Intermediaries and Interest Rate Risk: II

The current work extends and updates the previous survey ( Staikouras, 2003 ) by looking at other aspects of the financial institutions' yield sensitivity. The study starts with an extensive discussion of the origins of asset‐liability management and the subsequent work to identify effective ways of measuring and managing interest rate risk. The discussion implicates both regulatory and market‐based approaches along with any issues surrounding their applicability. The literature is enriched by recognizing that structural and regulatory shifts affect financial institutions in different ways depending on the size and nature of their activities. It is also noted that such shifts could change the bank's riskiness, and force banks to adjust their balance sheet size by altering their maturity intermediation function. Besides yield changes, market cycles are also held responsible for asymmetric effects on corporate values. Furthermore, nonstandard investigations are considered, where embedded options and basis risk are significant above and beyond the intermediary's rate sensitivity, while shocks to the slope of the yield curve is identified as a new variable. When the discount privilege is modeled as an option, it is shown that its value is incorporated in the equities of qualifying banks. Finally, volatility clustering is further established while constant relative risk aversion is not present in the U.S. market. Although some empirical findings may be quite mixed, there is a general consensus that all forms of systematic risk, risk premia, and the risk‐return trade‐off do exhibit some form of variability, not only over time but also across corporate sizes and segments.     

Interest Rate Uncertainty and the Financial Intermediary's Choice of Exposure

The financial intermediary's choice of operating as a broker with minimal risk exposure or as an asset-transformer with interest rate risk is modeled as a funds inventory decision made prior to the resolution of uncertainty regarding the borrowing or lending interest rates. It is shown that an increase in the interest rate uncertainty leads the intermediary to reduce its exposure, thereby offering decreased asset-transformation and more brokerage services. However, a stochastic increase in the interest rates leads to greater asset-transformation and less brokerage services.