Urbanization in Developing Countries

The rapid urbanization in many developing countries over thepast half century seems to have been accompanied by excessivelyhigh levels of concentration of the urban population in verylarge cities. Some degree of urban concentration may be desirableinitially to reduce inter- and intraregional infrastructureexpenditures. But in a mature system of cities, economic activityis more spread out. Standardized manufacturing production tendsto be deconcentrated into smaller and medium-size metropolitanareas, whereas production in large metropolitan areas focuseson services, research and development, and nonstandardized manufacturing.The costs of excessive concentration (traffic accidents, healthcosts from exposure to high levels of air and water pollution,and time lost to long commutes) stem from the large size ofmegacities and underdeveloped institutions and human resourcesfor urban planning and management. Alleviating excessively highurban concentration requires investments in interregional transportand telecommunications to facilitate deconcentration of industry.It also requires fiscal deconcentration, so that interior citiescan raise the fiscal resources and provide the services neededto compete with primate cities for industry and population.      

城市最低生活保障各级财政支出均等化效应研究——基于泰尔指数分解检验

运用泰尔指数及分解方法,测算了我国2005-2014年城市最低生活保障各级财政支出的均等化效应。测算结果表明:城市低保财政支出均等化水平不断提高,但也存在诸多不合理之处。对城市低保各级财政支出的均等化效应考察发现,中央财政支出起了主导性作用,但在东部省份的支出安排不尽合理;省级财政在城市低保中没有发挥与其财力相适应的均等化效应,甚至还产生阻碍作用,一定程度上抵消了均等化效应,县级财政支出的均等化效应高于省级财政,其支出负担较重。应缩小城市低保地区差异,提高各级财政支出的均等化效应,合理划分各级财政的支出责任。     

城商行股权结构异质性及治理效率--基于文献及案例视角的分析

股权结构是城商行公司治理基石,良好的股权结构对于防范内部人控制、大股东控制问题具有至关重要的作用。城商行股份制改革逐渐步入深水区,深入研究国内城商行股权结构具有重要的理论与现实意义。本文通过对东部沿海36家样本城商行的案例分析,并基于股权结构异质性与治理效率文献研究的视角,发现虽然多数城商行已具备相对集中且制衡的股权结构状态,但是受地方财政分权及晋升激励制度的影响,地方政府仍然直接或者间接控制城商行,这种控制在一定程度上影响城商行治理效率的发挥及经营绩效的改善,城商行距离真正的市场化运作还有一定的距离。     

Financial intermediation and the role of price discrimination in the foreign exchange market

Foreign exchange trading is performed in opaque and decentralized markets. The two-tier market structure consisting of a customer segment and an interdealer segment to which only market makers have access gives rise to the possibility of price discrimination. We develop a theoretical pricing model that accounts for market-power considerations and analyze a database of the trades of a foreign exchange market maker. We find that the market maker generally exerts low bargaining power vis-á-vis customers. The dealer earns lower average spreads on trades with financial customers than commercial customers, even though the former are perceived to convey exchange-rate-relevant information.     

土地财政对中国城市空间扩张的影响——基于动态空间计量模型的实证检验

基于动态空间计量模型,检验社会经济因素和制度因素对中国城市空间扩张的影响。结果表明：城市扩张是一个动态过程,且呈典型的空间自相关特征。传统市场因素对城市空间扩张的驱动作用明显,由于中国独特的财政制度和土地管理体制,土地财政成为推动城市空间扩张的显著因素。因此,地方政府应不断完善土地市场体系,加快土地财政转型,降低对土地财政的依赖。同时加大区域经济合作力度,在区域层面制定更有力的政策,推动城市可持续发展。     

财政分权、社会保障支出与城乡居民收入差距的实证分析

基于1998～2012年各省的面板数据,利用动态广义矩(GMM)和面板门槛模型实证分析财政分权、社会保障支出对城乡收入差距的影响,结果显示:由于中国城乡二元经济的特殊性,财政分权、人均社会保障支出与城乡居民收入差距均成正相关性.但社会保障支出对城乡收入差距的影响存在基于财政分权的双门槛效应,当财政分权水平较低时,社会保障支出的增加加剧了城乡收入差距;当财政分权高于一定水平时,社会保障支出有助于缩小城乡收入差距.     

财政自主权、财政支出结构与全要素生产率--来自230个地级市的检验北大核心

本文尝试将财政自主权、财政支出结构与经济效率联系,在我国财政分权理论框架下揭示地方财政自主权与技术进步之间的关系。在理论上,提出了"地方财政自主权越高,技术进步水平也越高,但随着经济性财政支出边际效率递减以及社会性财政支出的长期不足,财政自主权对技术进步的影响正在减弱"的命题假说。在实证上,以1999-2013年230个城市数据,采用工具变量法检验了财政自主权对城市全要素生产率的影响。实证结果表明:(1)城市财政自主权对城市全要素生产率影响较弱,主要是对TFP组成中的规模效率(SE)和技术进步(TP)产生了较为明显的正影响;(2)财政自主权越高的城市,越倾向于增加经济性财政支出比重,而对于社会性支出则更有动机展开"逐底竞争";(3)财政自主权对全要素生产率构成中的规模效率(SE)和技术进步(TP)的影响呈现出减弱的趋势;(4)城市财政自主权的提高可以显著改进微观企业层面的全要素生产率水平。     

After the death of inflation: will fiscal drag survive?

Declining inflation rates might have negative consequences for tax revenues. Phenomena such as the inflationary bracket creep in a progressive income tax system do not work any longer. With this background, the paper analyses the extent of fiscal drag for OECD countries since 1965. Some consideration of the role of money illusion and indexation in this context lays the theoretical base. A framework is presented that allows for the classification of fiscal structures with regard to the type of fiscal drag. The subsequent econometric panel analysis is performed for total and disaggregated government revenues. The results back theoretical considerations of inflation's impact on different kinds of taxes, which tends to be positive for individual income taxes and social security contributions and is negative for corporate income taxation. The paper concludes that both declining inflation and changing tax structures limit the potential for future fiscal drag.     

分税与地方财政支出结构

本文研究了税收分成对地方财政支出结构的影响。理论分析发现,在地方政府的财政支出结构竞争中,税收分成比例的提高将直接导致地方政府增加生产性公共支出,发挥生产性支出的产出外部性,提高产出水平和自身税收收入水平,实现福利最大化。一系列经验分析显著地验证了上述结论,即当地级市政府的税收分成率提高10%,该地区生产性支出占比将提高1.39%。本文的分析和结论有助于解释中国地方财政支出结构变动的原因,从而为政府间税收分配改革提供有效的政策建议。     

Public Investment in Europe: Evolution and Determinants in perspective*

We describe the evolution of public investment and public capital stocks in Europe over the past three decades. Against this background, we analyse the macroeconomic determinants of public investment, with a special focus on its long‐term trend. We find that public investment has been determined by national income, the stance of budgetary policies and fiscal sustainability considerations. Neither the cost of financing nor the fiscal rules embodied in EMU have had a systemic impact on public investment. The significant downtrend that characterises the evolution of public investment in non‐cohesion countries is chiefly determined by drawn‐out episodes of fiscal consolidation, unrelated to EMU.     

财政农业支出总量与增长对农业GDP的影响分析

本文将支农支出规模与支出增速两个效应测度相结合,在C-D生产函数框架下利用1978-2011年度中国财政支农支出与农业经济的相关数据,对加入区分支农支出增长速度的虚拟变量的计量模型进行实证分析.回归结果表明,不同支农支出增速下的支农政策的效应有显著差异,支农支出的政策效应被部分抑制,应使农业支出速度与农业禀赋结构相适应.     

海南省城乡居民消费超敏感度分析

本文利用1981—2006年的有关统计数据和状态空间模型对海南省城乡居民的消费超敏感度进行了变参数分析。分析发现,城镇居民消费超敏感度远高于农村居民。1990年代后期,城镇和农村居民消费对同期收入的超敏感系数都有上升趋势,政府采用短期财政政策会有较大效果;城镇居民的利率弹性为正,利率变动的替代效应大于收入效应,农村居民的情况恰好相反,其利率弹性为负,利率变动的替代效应小于收入效应,目前利率水平不利于提高农村居民消费水平。     

财政引导创新资源配置效率及其影响因素——来自18个高新区与新区的经验分析

基于18个国家级新区所在地和其高新区的数据,运用四阶段 DEA模型,考量企业在创新资源配置过程中的财政政策效率,研究发现:多数地方的新区和高新区的财政政策效率均大于1,且中部地区的财政政策效率不管是在新区还是其高新区均是最小,说明多数地区财政政策对企业创新的作用表现为"激励效应";结合Tobit模型的影响因素分析发现,高新区与新区的财政政策效率影响因素差异较大,一些能对新区财政政策效率造成显著影响的因素,并不能对高新区财政政策效率造成影响,说明高新区的发展已相对成熟,对产业集聚及创新资源引导发挥了较好作用,而新区仍有提升的空间.     

城乡基本公共服务均等化的财政政策研究

城乡“二元结构”利益固化的财政政策,导致局部地区城乡公共服务差异大,且地区城乡基本公共服务均等化程度因地而异。推进城乡基本公共服务均等化的财政政策,根本目标在于实现公共服务城乡统筹发展,应加快扩大国家财政“三农”支出比重、明确地方财政承担“三农”支出的责任、规范财政转移支付、加快推进新型城镇化,并同步推进城乡一体化建设。     

财政分权、空间效应与产业结构升级——基于SDM模型的经验研究

基于2000-2014年中国31个省级面板数据,运用空间杜宾模型分别考察财政收入分权和支出分权对产业结构升级的空间效应以及由此引致的策略性竞争效应,研究表明：财政分权等经济社会因素存在区域差异,这种差异导致产业结构升级在空间分布上具有显著的异质性特征。财政收入分权和支出分权对产业结构升级的影响呈现出非对称的空间溢出效应。一方面,财政收入分权对本地区产业结构升级的影响并不显著,而支出分权对本地区产业结构升级具有积极影响;另一方面,财政收入分权和支出分权对相邻地区产业结构升级均产生抑制效应,但较之于收入分权,支出分权的抑制效应更为明显。     

Freedom of choice between unitary and two-tier boards: An empirical analysis

We examine board structure in France, which since 1966 has allowed firms the freedom to choose between unitary and two-tier boards. We analyze how this choice relates to characteristics of the firm and its environment. Firms with severe asymmetric information tend to opt for unitary boards; firms with a potential for private benefits extraction tend to adopt two-tier boards. Chief executive officer turnover is more sensitive to performance at firms with two-tier boards, indicating greater monitoring. Our results are broadly consistent with the Adams and Ferreira (2007) model and suggest that gains result from allowing freedom of contract about board structure.     

国家审计对地方财政支出结构的影响研究

运用国家审计理论,依据2007—2018年中国30个省份相关数据,考量国家审计对地方财政支出结构的影响机制以及财政资金使用效率和财政压力的中介效应。结果表明,国家审计对地方财政支出结构影响显著,国家审计通过提高财政资金使用效率和缓解财政压力两种机制影响地方财政支出结构;同时,财政资金使用效率与财政压力在国家审计提升地方社会性支出占比中发挥链式中介作用。鉴于此,应充分发挥国家审计治理效能,秉持研究型审计新理念,优化地方财政支出结构;开展财政资金绩效审计,提升地方财政资金使用效率。     

Determinants of Voluntary Audit Committee Formation in a Two-Tier Board System of a Post-transitional Economy – The Case of Slovenia

This paper investigates the determinants of voluntary audit committee (AC) formation in a setting characterized by: (i) a two-tier board system; (ii) a post-transitional economy. Both factors may affect the system of incentives that influences the decision to form an AC and both factors distinguish this paper from existing studies that are usually done under a unitary-board system in a developed capital market. Only a minority (17%) of companies in our sample had voluntarily established ACs by the time ACs had become mandatory by law. We find that larger firms, firms with larger supervisory boards and firms with less debt (rather than more) are more likely to have voluntarily established an AC. Although the inverse relationship between debt and AC formation contradicts the debt holder–manager conflict it can be explained in the context of a post-transitional economy, where the ownership structure appears not to have stabilized yet and where debt has been used as a means of achieving effective control of firms by insiders.     

我国财政风险分析:体制、效率、政策角度

财政运行困难是我国财政体制的一大痼疾，而与之相伴的财政风险危害更大。本试图从财政收入机制、财政支出效率、财政政策操作三个角度来分析形成我国财政风险的深层次原因，并提出了防范财政风险的政策、制度建议。     

论财政负债风险及其影响因素

防范财政负债风险相应对策的制定,取决于对财政负债风险的正确理解和对影响其因素的客观分析.本文从对财政负债的广义界定出发,在分析了财政负债风险来源的基础上,结合我国实际情况,分析了影响财政负债风险的主要因素及其各影响因素之间的传导性.