The Effect of Board-Related Reforms on Investors' Confidence

We survey Australian institutional and individual investors regarding how board-related reforms in the Australian Stock Exchange Corporate Governance Council 2003 recommendations and changes to the Corporations Act 2001 in 2004 affect their confidence as investors. The overall results are consistent with suggestions that individual and institutional investors differ in their corporate governance preferences and expectations. The results reveal that, for both individual and institutional investors, the average investor's confidence is improved by increased independence of the board and its committees, increased disclosures of corporate governance information, and CEO and CFO responsibility for the integrity of financial statements. The effect is strongest for individual investors, who also expect greater time commitments by non-executive directors. Institutional investors appear to have more concern for directors' competence or networking.     

The Effect of Regulation FD on Transient Institutional Investors' Trading Behavior

We assess the impact of Regulation Fair Disclosure (Reg FD) on the trading behavior of transient institutional investors in the quarter prior to a bad news break in a string of consecutive earnings increases. Bad news breaks are defined as breaks that are by growth firms, preceded by longer strings of consecutive earnings increases, followed by longer strings of consecutive earnings decreases, and associated with larger declines in earnings. Pre–Reg FD transient institutions have abnormal selling of stocks in the quarter immediately preceding a bad news break. This abnormal selling is confined to firms that hold conference calls in the pre–Reg FD period. However, in the post–Reg FD period transient institutions do not exhibit similar abnormal selling of stocks in the quarter before a bad news break. Furthermore, after Reg FD transient institutions allocate less of their stock portfolios to conference call firms relative to non–conference call firms in the quarters prior to a bad news break. These results demonstrate that Reg FD has had an impact on management's selective disclosure behavior and significantly changed the trading behavior of transient institutions.     

The Day-of-the-Week and the Week-of-the-Month Effects: An Analysis of Investors' Trading Activities

This study examines the positive Monday returns detected in the stock market during the 1988–1998 period and finds that (a) the positive Monday returns are concentrated in the first and the third weeks of the month, and (b) they are related to the increasing trading activities of institutional investors.     

Risk Adjustment and Trading Strategies

We assess the profitability of momentum strategies using a stochasticdiscount factor approach. In unconditional tests, approximatelyhalf of the strategies' profitability is explained. In conditionaltests we see a further slight decline in profits. We argue thatthe risk of these strategies should be increasing in the marketrisk premium. Empirically, while their risk measures estimatedrelative to the stochastic discount factor behave as predicted,market betas do not; thus capital asset pricing model (CAPM)-likebenchmarks may lead to incorrect inferences. Given that ournonparametric risk adjustment explains roughly half of momentumstrategy profits, we cannot rule out the possibility of residualmispricing.     

Dynamic Volatility Trading Strategies in the Currency Option Market

The conditional volatility of foreign exchange rates can be predicted using GARCH models or implied volatility extracted from currency options. This paper investigates whether these predictions are economically meaningful in trading strategies that are designed only to trade volatility risk. First, this article provides new evidence on the issue of information content of implied volatility and GARCH volatility in forecasting future variance. In an artificial world without transaction costs both delta-neutral and straddle trading stratgies lead to significant positive profits, regardless of which volatility prediction method is used. Specifically, the agent using the Implied Stochastic Volatility Regression method (ISVR) earns larger profits than the agent using the GARCH method. Second, it suggests that the currency options market is informationally efficient. After accounting for transaction costs, which are assumed to equal one percent of option prices, observed profits are not significantly differentfrom zero in most trading strategies. Finally, these strategies offered returns have higher Sharpe ratio and lower correlation with several major asset classes. Consequently, hedge funds and institutional investors who are seeking alternative “marketneutral” investment methods can use volatility trading to improvethe risk-return profile of their portfolio through diversification. This revised version was published online in November 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

An Anatomy of Trading Strategies: Evidence from China

Using a pooled cross-sectional time series approach, we evaluate profits of momentum strategies and identify the sources of profits in China's stock market. Momentum strategies generate significant and negative returns in the A-share market on investment horizons at one month and at and above nine months. In the B-share market, momentum strategies yield significant and negative returns at and above twelve months. Decomposition analysis finds that the negative returns are predominately attributed to the time series profitability of stock returns. Although momentum strategies generate significant and positive returns over the period after China opened its once foreign-restricted B-share market to domestic individual investors, the relative importance of the time series predictability and the cross-sectional variation does not change.     

投资者亲社会偏好与风险投资

本文使用2012年和2014年中国家庭追踪调查(CFPS)数据,实证分析了户主的亲社会偏好对其家庭风险投资行为的影响。研究发现,户主的亲社会偏好对其家庭风险投资存在显著的正向影响,即亲社会偏好会促使家庭进行风险投资。在考虑了可能存在的内生性问题之后,这一结果仍然稳健。进一步地,分组回归后发现,在非农户口群体、使用互联网群体和偏好风险群体中,户主的亲社会偏好对其家庭风险投资的影响更加显著。本文的政策含义在于,在制定涉及家庭金融投资的相关政策时应充分考虑亲社会偏好对政策效果的影响。     

Investors' time preferences and takeover performance

We investigate investors' time preferences and takeover outcomes in a cross-disciplinary international study. We use a cultural measure on long-term orientation (LTO) to capture investors' time preferences. Additionally, we study how investor protection and the nature of the deal (cross-border vs domestic) in connection with investors' time preferences come into play in explaining long-term takeover performance. Evaluating data on 38,153 M&A deals from 54 countries, over the period from 2000 to 2015, we offer empirical evidence that investors' future orientation significantly improves post-M&A performance, while short-term oriented behavior deteriorates takeover performance. Our findings further suggest that the positive impact of investors' future orientation on takeover performance is more pronounced in countries with strong investor protection. Moreover, the impact of investors' time preferences is stronger for domestic deals where the confounding impact of cultural differences is almost non-existent.     

Optimal Dynamic Order Submission Strategies in Some Stylized Trading Problems

This study derives optimal dynamic order submission strategies for trading problems faced by three stylized traders: an uninformed liquidity trader, an informed trader and a value-motivated trader. Separate solutions are obtained for quote- and order-driven markets. The results provide practicable rules for how to trade small orders and how to manage traders. Transaction cost measurement methods based on implementation shortfall are proven to dominate other methods.
Since investors demand liquidity when they submit market orders and supply liquidity when they submit limit orders, the results improve our understanding of market liquidity. In particular, the models illustrate the role of time in the search for liquidity by characterizing the demand for and supply of immediacy.     

Disciplined imagination: Building scenarios and building theories

This article outlines a relationship between scenario construction and theory building. This is done in two key ways: (1) it is argued that a deficiency of theory and theory building exists with regard to the phenomenon of scenario construction and (2) it is also argued that scenario construction may constitute a form of theory building. These arguments are developed using foundational works that label both scenario construction and theory building as processes of disciplined imagination. Drawing from other core works in management and organizational change perspectives the argument is developed that scenario construction might most appropriately be thought of as a process of developing and changing theories-in-use. Conclusions and implications for management professionals are drawn.     

Individual Investors' Sentiment and Temporary Stock Price Pressure

Using data for the Hong Kong stock market, where individual investors' sentiment is likely to be influential, this study finds that the publication of individual investors' sentiment temporarily affects stock prices regardless of the publication's incompetence in predicting stock returns. Specifically, when the publication reports that more and more investors are optimistic, the return on the day just after the publication is higher and the return several days later is lower. Furthermore, the results are strongest for small stocks, and weakest for large stocks. It seems that some individual investors buy (sell) stocks when others, as reported by the publication, are optimistic (pessimistic), and that the trading causes temporary buying (selling) pressure initially and price reversals afterwards.     

Performance of Currency Trading Strategies in Developed and Emerging Markets: Some Striking Differences

Expanding the currency investment universe makes a lot of sense from a diversification point of view. Nevertheless, 60% of the total foreign exchange turnover is still only traded in three currency pairs (USD/EUR, USD/JPY and USD/GBP). The share of trading in local currencies in emerging markets is only around 5%. This can be explained by the fact that some currency managers fear investing in emerging market currencies. Many believe that political risk is the most dominant driver in these markets and that traditional investment rules do not work. In this paper, I apply four technical trading strategies for the developed market currencies and for the most traded emerging market currencies. The empirical results show some striking differences. They suggest that trend-following rules work better for emerging market currencies, while carry trading strategies perform better across developed market currencies. Nevertheless, it seems that conventional techniques could be successfully applied to both developed and emerging market currencies. I conclude that currency managers should not be afraid to diversify into emerging market currencies. They should, however, adjust their trading style accordingly.     

投资者情绪、产权性质与商业信用

随着资本市场壮大,投资者情绪对实体经济的影响已不容忽视。本文利用2006—2015年沪深A股企业数据研究投资者情绪对商业信用供给的影响。研究发现,投资者情绪可从动机、意愿和能力三方面共同影响商业信用供给,两者呈显著的正相关关系。进一步,高涨的投资者情绪对民营企业商业信用供给的刺激性作用强于国有企业。     

会计-税收差异、未来盈余增长与投资者认知偏差——基于我国上市公司的经验证据

基于会计制度和税收法规两套体系而产生的会计-税收差异普遍存在且不可消除,本文以2008-2012年我国A股上市公司为研究样本,首先研究了会计-税收差异、暂时性会计-税收差异及永久性会计-税收差异与公司未来盈余增长的关系,再采用Fama-Mac Beth回归等方法观察投资者对会计-税收差异的反应,最后构建投资组合,运用长窗口事件研究法,计算购买并持有超额收益,观察投资者能否利用会计-税收差异所蕴含的信息获得超额收益。研究结果表明会计-税收差异、暂时性会计-税收差异与公司未来盈余增长显著相关,本文构建的投资组合能获得显著超额收益,市场对会计-税收差异信息存在误定价,这种投资者认知偏差是资本市场存在的一个"市场异象"。     

集团诉讼与中小投资者保护

对于具有"小额多数"性质的证券民事侵权诉讼,我国现有的"代表人诉讼"制度,由于其判决效力的"间接扩张"方式,存在"搭便车"问题,因此无法有效保护中小投资者的权利。本文在理性人的假设下建立模型,论证只有借鉴英美法系"集团诉讼"制度(Class Action)中的"选择退出规则"(Opt Out),将判决效力直接扩张到所有当事人,才能有效避免"搭便车"问题,使法律保护中小投资者的权利成为可能。     

Small Business Reliance on Bank Financing in Ghana

Financing has been identified as a dominant constraint to Ghanaian small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). This study explores the determinants of bank financing and debt among Ghanaian SMEs. A panel regression model estimates the relation between the determinants and the bank-debt ratio. The results reveal that bank loans account for less than a quarter of SMEs' total debt financing, and show that the age and size of the firm, along with asset tangibility, have significantly positive associations with the bank-debt ratio. Profitability is significantly and negatively related to the bank-debt ratio. These findings have significant implications both at the firm level and for the support of policies aimed at improving SME financing in Ghana.     

IPO定价管制、价值不确定性与投资者“炒新”

本文以价值不确定性理论解释IPO定价管制对投资者"炒新"行为的影响,并以2006年6月-2012年2月的样本进行实证检验。结果发现,相对于定价市场化阶段,定价管制期间的IPO溢价(以首日收盘价减去估计的内在价值度量)显著更高。并且,新股上市前价值不确定性越大,定价管制对IPO溢价的影响越大;上市时二级市场投资者情绪越高,定价管制对IPO溢价的影响越大。上述发现都支持了价值不确定性理论对投资者"炒新"行为的解释。为增强结果的可靠性,我们使用双重差分模型控制时间序列上其他可能因素的影响,结论保持不变。本文的发现有助于理解新股定价管制的经济后果,并对注册制改革有重要启示。     

Competition among Trading Venues: Information and Trading on Electronic Communications Networks

This paper explores the competition between two trading venues, Electronic Communication Networks (ECNs) and Nasdaq market makers. ECNs offer the advantages of anonymity and speed of execution, which attract informed traders. Thus, trades are more likely to occur on ECNs when information asymmetry is greater and when trading volume and stock‐return volatility are high. ECN trades have greater permanent price impacts and more private information is revealed through ECN trades than though market‐maker trades. However, ECN trades have higher ex ante trading costs because market makers can preference or internalize the less informed trades and offer them better executions.