The impact of Africa‐China's diplomatic visits on bilateral trade

This article documents that African leaders’ state visits to China could stimulate China's exports to Africa in capital intensive manufacturing goods. We further find that state visits significantly increase official aid and exports by state‐owned enterprises to African countries which contribute to the trade growth after state visits.     

Optimal bilateral trade of multiple objects

We study a private-values buyer–seller problem with multiple objects. Valuations are binary and i.i.d. We construct mechanisms that span the set of all Pareto-efficient outcomes. The induced trading rules for objects are linked in a simple way.     

矿业权市场效果的博弈分析

在矿业权有偿制度确立之前,政府曾花去大量的人力、物力、财力监管矿山企业的"三率"指标.但收效甚微,并且导致影响矿产业航向的矿产品价格也严重扭曲.运用博弈论分析发现,矿业权市场竞争机制是一种能让矿业企业自觉改善"三率"指标、理顺矿产品价格的有效的自我实施机制.     

The effect of market conduct on international steam coal trade

This paper is concerned with the determinants of international steam coal trade. Most quantitative work in explaining such trade has been stymied by the apparent failure of the competitive model to account for observed and anticipated trade flows. In general, authors have sought institutional explanations for this failure. The hypothesis explored by this paper is that the exercising of market power by certain agents in the market can lead to trade patterns consistent with those observed and anticipated. This hypothesis is explored through a simple model of imperfect market equilibrium. In addition to perfect competition, we examine Cournot-Nash monopoly (South Africa), duopoly (South Africa, Australia) and duopoly/monopsony (South Africa, Australia, Japan) with a competitive fringe of producers (US, Canada, Poland, China, Colombia). Using the equilibrium model of coal trade, we examine these market structures and evaluate the extent to which they can explain existing and anticipated trade patterns.     

Functional income distribution and aggregate demand in the Euro area

An increase in the wage share has contradictory effects on thesubaggregates of aggregate demand. Private consumption expendituresought to increase because wage incomes typically are associatedwith higher consumption propensities than capital incomes. Investmentexpenditures ought to be negatively affected because investmentwill positively depend on profits. Net exports will be negativelyaffected because an increase in the wage share corresponds toan increase in unit labour costs and thus a loss in competitiveness.Therefore, theoretically, aggregate demand can be either wage-ledor profit-led depending on how these effects add up. The resultswill crucially depend on how open the economy is internationally.The paper estimates a post-Kaleckian macro model incorporatingthese effects for the Euro area and finds that the Euro areais presently in a wage-led demand regime. Implications for wagepolicies are discussed.     

US bilateral trade equations: forecasts and structural stability

In this paper actual recent US trade values are compared with out-of-sample forecasts using a standard specification for real bilateral trade value equations. Though fairly accurate on average, there are large bilateral errors. A battery of coefficient stability tests indicates significant instability more often for imports over the forecast period and more often for exports over the latter part of the estimation period. Thus, standard bilateral trade equations appear to violate the basic regression assumption of stability and may be of little use for forecasting.     

Comparing alternative methods to estimate gravity models of bilateral trade

The gravity equation has been traditionally used to predict trade flows across countries. However, several problems related with its empirical application still remain unsolved. The unobserved heterogeneity, the presence of heteroskedasticity in trade data or the existence of zero flows, which make the estimation of the logarithm unfeasible, are some of them. This paper provides a survey of the most recent literature concerning the specification and estimation methods of this equation. For a dataset covering 80% of world trade, the most widely extended estimators are compared, showing that the Heckman sample selection model performs better overall for the specification of gravity equation selected.     

The Latvian Road to the Euro

The article presents the situation in Latvia ahead of the country＇s adoption of the euro by offering an analysis of the extent to which the country is prepared for the move and of general economic difficulties as well as indicating possible threats to its future development. The article talks about difficulties caused by the great unemployment connected with the specific economy of the country, political problems of the post-socialistic multinational country and steps done towards the fulfilling of all the convergence criteria. Its aim is to present the moments around the change of the currency which is done by the material＇s analysis because there are not enough statistical data for the mathematical analysis. It can be concluded that the adoption of the euro will probably be beneficial in the long run for Latvia＇s economy. The conclusions may be done by comparison with the situation of Estonia and its foreign trade with Poland which is shown in the article because there are a lot of similarities between the two Baltic countries.     

The Euro: Reflections on the first three years

In the first three years of its (virtual) existence, the euro has seen a general decline in its value (notably against the dollar). In this paper we look at this issue and reflect on the implications of the decline for the future of the euro.The paper begins by briefly reviewing some of the explanations that have been put forward for the weakness of the euro, which might be seen as temporary factors or factors that do not arise from the creation of the eurozone per se. These explanations include the decline in the value of the euro as being a reaction to previous rises, interest rate differentials as favouring the dollar and the decline in the euro as being the obverse of a rise in the value of the dollar reflecting the strength of the US economy. These explanations are found to be unconvincing, and the view is advanced that there are serious weaknesses within the eurozone itself and in the construction of the eurosystem, along with its operation, that could be undermining the value of the euro. The divergent euro area may be one of the more significant factors contributing to the euro decline.     

The effect of a currency union on trade: Lessons from the Irish experience

This paper studies the introduction of an exchange rate between Ireland and the UK in 1979 to shed light on the effects of a common currency on the composition of international trade. No evidence is found from time series or panel regressions that the change of exchange rate regime had a significant effect on Anglo-Irish trade. This finding is consistent with previous studies of currency unions between larger, developed countries but conflicts with findings based on more heterogeneous country groupings. The reasons for this discrepancy are discussed.     

我国加工贸易的动态效应分析

改革开放以来,我国的加工贸易得到了飞速发展,2005年,我国加工贸易进出口额达到6905.1亿美元,比前一年增长25.3%.其中出口4164.8亿美元,增长27%;进口2740.3亿美元,增长23.6%.目前,加工贸易已涉及到我国绝大多数产业,从食品、纺织品等初级产品发展到高科技、高附加值的电子、化工、机械等深加工产品;从事加工贸易的省区从广东、福建沿海省区扩大到内陆省市;业务往来由港澳地区发展到日本西欧、北美地区.加工贸易的迅速发展,不仅发挥了我国劳动力资源丰富的比较优势,解决了3000多万人的就业问题,而且在扩大出口、引进外资、推动地区经济发展方面发挥了巨大作用,已经成为我国对外开放的主要内容和形式.     

Euro usage in international trade amidst threats to multilateralism: evidence from Malawian imports

Empirica - The European Union (EU) is both a supporter and a symbol of multilateralism in international trade. The growth in the international role of the euro may ease the spillover concerns that...     

An assessment of the Europe agreements’ effects on bilateral trade, GDP, and welfare

The so-called Europe Agreements had been enacted in the 1990s to initiate the integration of goods markets between the 15 EU incumbent economies as of 1995 and 10 potential entrants located in Central and Eastern Europe. This paper evaluates the trade, GDP, and welfare effects of these agreements by means of structural analysis of a bilateral trade flow model. The results support three conclusions. First, the agreements exerted significant positive effects on goods trade between the EU15 incumbents and the CEEC and, at the same time, they induced trade redirection from other countries. Second, EU15 GDP responded by an increase of much less than 1% while that in the 10 CEEC increased by several percent in response to the agreements. Third, the effects on welfare were moderate in the EU15 but amounted to more double-digit percentage changes in the involved CEEC.     

Motivation for bilateral aid allocation: Altruism or trade benefits

This paper argues that OECD countries allocate more aid to recipient nations who import goods in which donor nations have a comparative advantage in production. The estimates indicate that a substantially larger amount of aid is provided to recipients who import capital goods, while imports by other category groups have no significant effects. Given that developed donor nations are major producers and exporters of capital goods, this result at least partially supports their trade benefits motive. Donors also appear to be more concerned about alleviating physical miseries (infant mortality) and rewarding good human rights conditions, but less towards reducing economic hardships (poverty). Moreover, the usual political and strategic considerations of donors continue to be the major determinants of aid allocation even in the Post Cold War era.     

Structures of foreign trade and income distribution: The case of Mexico

Using Mexico's input-output tables and household survey data, this paper examines various trade strategies and their relationship to commodity production with a view to assesing their effect on the distribution of income. The model incorporates income-induced multiplier effects, taking into account the full range of input import-substitution possibilities. The results show that the differences in the impact on income, particularly, of the lower incomes, are most marked in the tensions between exportable and import-competing activities. On the whole, production per unit of output in the non-tradable sector produces as much factor income as that in the export sector. Expansion of exportable activities marginally improves the economic position of the poor in relation to other income groups, but only when direct effects are taken into account. If, however, domestic production meets the needs of intermediate imports, then the distribution of income remains unaffected by alternative trade strategies.     

欧盟与南方共同市场经贸合作展望——基于欧南自贸协议谈判的分析

欧盟与南方共同市场分属世界第二以及第六大经济体,双方历经近20年谈判,于2019年6月签署自贸协议。从欧盟—南共市贸易谈判的进程和分歧入手,探析欧盟与南方共同市场在区域双边经贸合作领域的机制、特点,以及现存挑战,以期对基础差异较大的区域经贸合作作出初步探索。     

Gradualism and dynamic trade adjustment: Revisiting the pro-trade effect of free trade agreements

Do pro-trade effects of free trade agreements reflect timing of policy or dynamic trade adjustment? Only the latter involves dynamic welfare gains. I find that dynamic trade adjustment is as important as the immediate impact effect of free trade agreements.