Latency and liquidity provision in a limit order book

We use a recent, high-quality data set from Nasdaq to perform an empirical analysis of order flow in a limit order book before and after the arrival of a market order. For each of the stocks that we study, we identify a sequence of distinct phases across which the net flow of orders differs considerably. We note that some of our results are consistent with the widely reported phenomenon of stimulated refill, but that others are not. We therefore propose alternative mechanical and strategic motivations for the behaviour that we observe. Based on our findings, we argue that strategic liquidity providers consider both adverse selection and expected waiting costs when deciding how to act.     

Stock market dynamics with rational liquidity traders

In the Kyle (1985) finite horizon model of stock market dynamics with a trader who holds long-lived information, informed trading intensities rise with time, and the slopes of the equilibrium price schedules fall. This paper shows that this result depends crucially on the irrational liquidity trader assumption. We replace the irrational noise traders with a sequence of rational, risk averse, liquidity traders who receive endowment shocks to their holdings of the risky asset. We demonstrate that unless liquidity traders are sufficiently risk averse, the slope of equilibrium price schedule rises over time, while informed trading intensities fall. In particular, Kyle's result holds only when liquidity traders are so risk averse that they ‘over-rebalance’ their portfolio's holdings of the risky asset, so that their final holdings of the risky asset have the opposite sign of their initial position.     

The ex-dividend day stock price anomaly: evidence from the Greek stock market

This paper examines the ex-dividend stock price and trading volume behavior in the Greek stock market for the period 2000–2004. We use both standard event-study methodology and cross-sectional regression analysis in assessing the ex-dividend stock price anomaly. We find that stock prices drop less than the dividend amount. By examining abnormal returns as well as abnormal trading volume around the ex-dividend day, we find strong evidence of short-term trading, which is consistent with the presence of dividend-capturing activities around the ex-dividend day. The results from the cross-sectional regression analysis confirm that the short-term trading hypothesis explains the ex-dividend day stock price anomaly in Greece.

Trading performance and market efficiency: Evidence from algorithmic trading

In India, National Stock Exchange directly identifies algorithmic trading participation. Algorithmic traders possess intraday market timing skills. Results are not motivated by extreme short-term signals or transitory price trading. Magnitude of market timing performance in cross-sectional group of traders shows that they earn profit across all the cases, and maximize while providing liquidity. Volume-weighted-average-price decomposition analysis reports algorithmic traders earn profits through intraday market timing performance for five-minute and one-minute intervals, and it is higher compared to short-term market timing performance across all trader groups. Order imbalance and price delay regressions show that algorithmic trading significantly improves price efficiency.     

The impact of short-selling and margin-buying on liquidity: Evidence from the Chinese stock market

We propose a framework based on limit order book to analyze the impact of short-selling and margin-buying on liquidity. We show that when short-sellers are perceived as informed, adverse selection may lead to uninformed traders withdrawing their limit orders. Given that the Chinese stock market has strong information asymmetry and a high proportion of uninformed traders, we predict that the pilot program launched in March 2010, which lifts restrictions on short-selling and margin-buying for a designated list of stocks, may have a negative impact on liquidity. We perform difference-in-differences tests and show evidence that allowing for short-selling and margin-buying indeed has a significantly negative impact on liquidity for stocks on the designated list. In particular, the negative impact on liquidity is more pronounced for stocks with high information asymmetry. Nevertheless, when short-selling volume dries up due to regulation changes in August 2015, i.e., the “T+1” trading rule on short-selling, we show that consistent with model predictions, lifting restrictions on short-selling and margin-buying has a positive effect on liquidity.     

The information content of a limit order book: The case of an FX market

In this paper we examine the question of whether knowledge of the information contained in a limit order book helps to provide economic value in a simple trading scheme. Given the greater information content of the order book, over simple price information, it might naturally be expected that the order book would dominate. Using Dollar Sterling tick data, we find that despite the in-sample statistical significance of variables describing the structure of the limit order book in explaining tick-by-tick returns, they do not consistently add significant economic value out-of-sample. We show this using a simple linear model to determine trading activity, as well as a model-free genetic algorithm based on price, order flow, and order book information. We also find that the profitability of all trading rules based on genetic algorithms dropped substantially in 2008 compared to 2003 data.     

Examining the relationship between earning management and market liquidity

The main purpose of this paper is to argue the extent that earnings management lowers liquidity. It should increase information asymmetry and impair trading liquidity. Using a sample of French firms from 2008 to 2011, we find that firms that manage earnings have wider bid-ask spreads. Our results are robust for both of two well-established measures of market liquidity. Therefore, the empirical results indicate that firms that exhibit greater earnings management are associated with lower market liquidity. These findings are in line with adverse selection and shed light on the role corporate governance devices can play in the consideration of shareholder interest’s protection, which leads to improved stock market liquidity levels.     

The intra-day performance of market timing strategies and trading systems based on Japanese candlesticks

Abstract

We develop market timing strategies and trading systems to test the intra-day predictive power of Japanese candlesticks at the 5-minute interval on the 30 constituents of the DJIA index. Around a third of the candlestick rules outperform the buy-and-hold strategy at the conservative Bonferroni level. After adjusting for trading costs, however, just a few rules remain profitable. When we correct for data snooping by applying the SSPA test on double-or-out market timing strategies, no single candlestick rule beats the buy-and-hold strategy after transaction costs. We also design fully automated trading systems by combining the best-performing candlestick rules. No evidence of out-performance is found after transaction costs. Although Japanese candlesticks can somewhat predict intra-day returns on large US caps, we show that such predictive power is too limited for active portfolio management to outperform the buy-and-hold strategy when luck, risk, and trading costs are correctly measured.     

Return spread and liquidity: Evidence from Hong Kong ADRs

Fifteen Chinese H-shares listed on the Stock Exchange of Hong Kong are cross listed as ADRs on the NYSE. We empirically determine the role of security specific liquidity associated with those ADRs and their underlying H-shares on return spreads, differences between the returns on ADRs and their corresponding H-shares after controlling for ADRs and H-shares excess market returns and their respective price inverses denoting conditional betas. We use three proxies for liquidity, trading volume, turnover, and illiquidity (Amihud, 2002) and find that only trading volume and turnover are consistent determinants of return spread for the majority of Chinese ADRs with primary listing in Hong Kong Stock Exchange (SEHK). We use a switching regression model and find that the model parameter estimates are not stationary and change, often drastically between pre and post 2000 and 2003. Further tests using Bai Perron indicate return spreads data as non-stationary with multiple regime changes during the sample period. Further the causes of non-stationarity seem to be largely security specific and not driven by broad market swings in either market.     

Investor heterogeneity,trading account types and competing liquidity channels for Malaysian stocks

This paper examines the relationship between various investor groups and stock liquidity for Malaysian public listed firms over the 2002–2009 sample period. Using the Amihud illiquidity ratio, we extend the literature by addressing the issues of investor heterogeneity, trading account types and the interactions of competing liquidity channels. The analysis reveals that only local institutions and local individual investors who trade through the direct accounts are significantly associated with the liquidity of domestic firms. In contrast, the significant liquidity effect for foreign investors operates through the nominee accounts. While institutional ownership exhibits a linear negative relationship, our findings on local individuals and foreign nominees differ greatly from previous studies in that their relationship with stock liquidity is non-monotonic. Apart from the widely-researched information asymmetry and trading effects, we find that liquidity is also driven by the largely ignored information competition channel. An important insight from our findings is that the large shareholdings by any particular investor group is detrimental to stock liquidity as they exacerbate information asymmetry, reduce the degree of competition and lower the level of trading activity.     

Information-based trade in the Shanghai stock market

We show that the probability of information-based trade (PIN) played a significant role in explaining monthly returns on Shanghai A shares over the period 2001 to 2006. In particular, PIN, as approximated by order imbalance as a proportion of total transactions, appears to explain returns even after controlling for risk in the much-cited Fama and French [Fama, E. F. & French, K. R. (1992). The Cross-Section of Expected Stock Returns. Journal of Finance, XLVII, 427–465.] three-factor model. However, we also find that some of the PIN effect appears to be indistinguishable from a turnover effect.     

Volatility and market structure

This study examines volatility within three related intra-day series – transaction returns, quote midpoint returns, and limit order book midpoint returns – for a set of NYSE-listed stocks. We document statistically significant GARCH effects both overall and surrounding earnings announcements in all three series for the majority of stocks in the sample. We then compare the extent of volatility clustering among the series. In addition, the relation between volatility and market structure is examined via a set of cross-sectional regressions, and relations among the series over time are studied in a vector autoregressive framework.     

Market Reactions to the Hong Kong Trading Suspensions: Mandatory versus Voluntary

This paper investigates the market reactions to regulator-initiated (mandatory) suspension and issuer-initiated (voluntary) suspension on the Stock Exchange of Hong Kong. It is found that there is substantial devaluation of the stocks during either suspension, and both the variance and trading volume are higher in the post-suspension period than in the pre-suspension period. However, the changes in value and variance are sensitive to the reason for the suspension. The evidence shows that mandatory suspensions are more effective than voluntary suspensions in disseminating information, although both suspensions may not effectively ease unusual volatility immediately.     

Empirical study on relationship between persistence-free trading volume and stock return volatility

A large body of literature finds that the unexpected trading volume, which is obtained by filtering out time trend, autocorrelation, can be used as a proxy of the information flow and can explain the heteroskedasticity of stock return in some degrees. In this paper, we find that the heteroskedasticity exists in the unexpected trading volume, and we further generate a new information proxy by filtering out the heteroskedasticity from the unexpected trading volume, termed “persistence-free trading volume”. Our empirical results indicate that the persistence-free trading volume can explain the heteroskedasticity of the return better than the unexpected trading volume; moreover, the explanatory power of the persistence-free trading volume is positively related to market maturity.     

Liquidity,liquidity risk,and information flow: Lessons from an emerging market

This paper examines the role of public and private information flows in intraday liquidity and intraday liquidity risk in the Tunisian stock market. Our empirical results are based on ARMA and GARCH-type models and show that, for major Tunisian stocks, gradually elapsed public information together with gradually elapsed private information in the market is the dominant factor in liquidity improvements in the Tunisian stock market. Liquidity improvements are generated by a decrease in the bid-ask spread accompanied by an increase in the depth at best limit. Our results clearly indicate that the arrival of public information in a sequential manner is the dominant factor generating increases in liquidity risk related to the bid-ask spread, while the advent of private information in a contemporaneous manner is the dominant factor generating increases in liquidity risk related to the depth at best limit. Additionally, our results show that liquidity risk persistence disappears when trading volume and order imbalance are included as explanatory variables in the conditional variance equation.     

Short-run Returns around the Trades of Corporate Insiders on the London Stock Exchange

Previous work examined the long-run profitability of strategies mimicking the trades company directors in the shares of their own company, as a way of testing for market efficiency. The current paper examines patterns in abnormal returns in the days around these trades on the London Stock Exchange.
We find movements in returns that are consistent with directors engaging in short-term market timing. We also report that some types of trades have superior predictive content over future returns. In particular, medium-sized trades are more informative for short-term returns than large ones, consistent with Barclay and Warner's (1993) 'stealth trading' hypothesis whereby informed traders avoid trading in blocks.
Another contribution of this study is to properly adjust the abnormal return estimates for microstructure (spread) transactions costs using daily bid-ask spread data. On a net basis, we find that abnormal returns all but disappear.     

Abnormal trading volume,news and market efficiency: Evidence from the Jamaica Stock Exchange

This paper investigates market efficiency of the Jamaica Stock Exchange (JSE). Together, weak and semi-strong form efficiency claim that historical and newly released public information do not predict future stock price movement. We test both forms of market efficiency by analyzing stock price behavior during times of abnormal trading volume and around the release dates of earnings information. Abnormal trading volume may be driven by liquidity demand or reflect new or private information flow to the market. Using JSE data over the period 2000 to 2021, we find price dynamics consistent with price pressure as firms experience negative abnormal returns on the day of abnormal trading activity but offsetting positive abnormal stock returns on the following day. Further findings show post earnings announcement drift on the JSE. Taken as a whole, the evidence suggests violations of market efficiency and has implications for capital allocation in this emerging market.     

Sources of liquidity for NYSE-listed non-US stocks

We examine the components of displayed (quoted) liquidity and the amount of non-displayed liquidity on the NYSE for a sample of non-US stocks. Consistently with prior work, non-US stocks have less displayed liquidity than similar US stocks. Extending prior research, we find that this is true both in the limit order book and on the floor. As Domowitz et al. [Domowitz, I., Glen, J., Madhavan, A., 1998. International cross-listing and order flow migration: Evidence from and emerging market. Journal of Finance 53, 2001–2027] posit, non-US stocks from transparent/linked home markets have more displayed NYSE liquidity when the home market is open but non-US stocks from opaque/non-linked home markets have more NYSE displayed liquidity when the home market is closed. Non-US and US stocks have similar supplies of non-displayed liquidity, consistent with the idea that the conditional nature of non-displayed liquidity allows NYSE traders to mitigate adverse selection problems inherent in trading non-US stocks. Our results imply that non-US stocks have less total (displayed plus non-displayed) liquidity than US stocks.     

Gas storage valuation under limited market liquidity: an application in Germany

Natural gas storages may be valued by applying real options theory. However, it is crucial to take into account that most evolving gas markets, like the German spot market, lack liquidity. This implies that large-scale operation of storages reduces the achievable operating margin since storage operators will pay higher prices for injected gas and earn less on withdrawn gas. Optimal storage operation will take this into account. In this context, considering storage operators as price takers does not account for interdependencies of storage operations and market prices. This paper offers a novel approach to storage valuation taking into account the effect of management decisions on market prices. The methodology proposed within this paper determines the optimal production schedule and value by determining the stochastic differential equation describing the storage value and then applying a finite difference scheme. We find that limited liquidity lowers the storage value and reduces withdrawal and injection amounts. Further, we observe decreasing reservation prices for injection and withdrawing for growing illiquidity resulting in a left shift of injection and withdrawing threshold prices.     

Political institutions,stock market liquidity and firm dividend policy: Some international evidence

In this cross-country study, we draw on the dividend liquidity hypothesis and the political economy literature to examine whether political institutions affect the relationship between stock market liquidity and a firm’s dividend policy. In countries with weak political institutions, we expect that investors are less able to demand higher dividends for stocks with low liquidity. Using a sample of 52 countries, we show that the negative association between stock market liquidity and dividends is more pronounced in countries with sound political institutions, consistent with the “outcome” model of dividends. These results are stronger in countries with better legal institutions and weaker for firms with financial constraints.