Why disagreement may not matter (much) for asset prices

A simple consumption-based two-period model is used to study the (theoretical) effects of disagreement on asset prices. Analytical and numerical results show that individual uncertainty has a much larger effect on risk premia than disagreement if (i) the risk aversion is reasonably high and (ii) individual uncertainty is not much smaller than disagreement. Evidence from survey data on beliefs about output growth suggests that the latter is more than satisfied.     

The unethical practices of accountants and auditors and the compromising stance of professional bodies in the corporate world: Evidence from corporate Nigeria

Investors in Nigeria have lost several billions of dollars through the collusion of accountants and external auditors with companies’ management and directors to falsify and deliberately overstate companies’ accounts. As a consequence of unethical practices by accountants and auditors, which have resulted in the distress or occasionally the closure of companies, some indigenous Nigerian Managing Directors of multinational corporations such as Lever Brothers Nigeria Plc and Cadbury Nigeria Plc have been sacked and replaced with expatriates. Some companies placed under receivership have also lost billions of dollars due to professional misconduct by their official receivers. Contrary to the claim of ‘protecting the public interest,’ accountants and auditors may be partly responsible for cases of distress and closure of companies and banking institutions in Nigeria. However, the various Statutory Provisions and Acts relating to companies and professional bodies all place the responsibility on the accountants and auditors to detect and report to the regulators cases of suspected fraud and accounting malpractice. Through detailed consideration of cases of fraud, falsifications and deliberate overstatement of companies’ accounts, this paper examines the claim that the professional bodies are capable of protecting the public interest. It utilizes archival documents to provide evidence that suggests professional misconduct by accountants, particularly the members of the Institute of Chartered Accountants of Nigeria (ICAN). The paper provides further evidence that ICAN has been reluctant to either investigate or sanction its erring members. The paper posits that the reluctance or inability of the ICAN's “Investigation and Disciplinary Machinery” to either investigate or discipline the erring accountants and auditors suggests that whether by design or default, the ICAN's “Investigation and Disciplinary Machinery” operates to shield the activities of its erring members in accountancy firms from critical scrutiny.     

国债收益率曲线预测未来通胀变化的信息价值研究

利率期限结构具有预测未来通货膨胀率变化的信息价值,这在国外的大量研究中已得到肯定。本文采用NSS模型估计了我国上海证券交易所的国债收益率曲线,并采用Mishkin模型和扩展的Mishkin模型,实证分析了上交所国债收益率曲线对未来通货膨胀率变化的预测能力,并研究了不同期限的国债收益率与通货膨胀率的关系。结果表明,上交所国债收益率曲线不具有预测未来通货膨胀率变化的信息价值,而且不同期限的国债收益率与当前的通货膨胀率存在很强的正相关,而与未来通货膨胀率的正相关很弱,甚至存在负相关。     

Yield curve shapes and the asymptotic short rate distribution in affine one-factor models

We consider a model for interest rates where the short rate is given under the risk-neutral measure by a time-homogeneous one-dimensional affine process in the sense of Duffie, Filipović, and Schachermayer. We show that in such a model yield curves can only be normal, inverse, or humped (i.e., endowed with a single local maximum). Each case can be characterized by simple conditions on the present short rate r _t . We give conditions under which the short rate process converges to a limit distribution and describe the risk-neutral limit distribution in terms of its cumulant generating function. We apply our results to the Vasiček model, the CIR model, a CIR model with added jumps, and a model of Ornstein–Uhlenbeck type. Supported by the Austrian Science Fund (FWF) through project P18022 and the START program Y328. Supported by the module M5 “Modeling of Fixed Income Markets” of the PRisMa Lab, financed by Bank Austria and the Republic of Austria through the Christian Doppler Research Association. Both authors would like to thank Josef Teichmann for most valuable discussions and encouragement. We also thank various proofreaders at FAM and the anonymous referee for their comments.     

Accountancy capstone: Enhancing integration and professional identity

Capstone units are generally seen to have three main aims: integrating the program, reflecting on prior learning, and transitioning into the workplace. However, research indicates that most programs do not achieve outcomes in all three areas with Henscheid (2000) revealing that integration is the major goal of many capstone programs. As well, in the accounting education literature there has been little empirical evidence relating to the effectiveness of student learning as a result of implementing a capstone unit.     

Benchmarks,characteristics and trends of U.S. graduate tax programs awarding a Master of Science in Taxation (MST) degree

Survey data gathered from graduate tax program directors at 26 universities, a response rate of about 43% of all programs contacted, is used to benchmark characteristics and trends of U.S. programs awarding a Master of Science in Taxation (MST) degree. The impetus for this paper was the absence of current literature regarding curriculum, enrollment, and delivery of graduate tax programs in the United States, and it is the first study to compile information on MST program trends.     

New development: A new COFOG for South Korea

The South Korean government's Classification of the Functions of Government (COFOG) is grounded in the System of National Accounts (SNA), rather than Government Finance Statistics (GFS). This article explains why a GFS-based classification might be beneficial to South Korea for the purposes of fiscal management and the comparison of government expenditures with other countries.     

贷款减值的理论基础与减值会计模型

贷款减值理论基础可以从资产内涵、会计目标、稳健主义和风险量化管理理论四个维度来分析。贷款减值不仅是一项会计实践,也事关金融监管与稳定。现行已发生损失减值模型同现代企业估值模型具有内在一致性,但减值确认存在滞后性。预期损失模型旨在前瞻性确认贷款预期损失,消除亲周期性影响。研究表明:预期损失模型对预期改变非常敏感,也无法彻底解决现行模型的亲周期问题;中国目前的信贷商业环境尚不支持预期损失模型的理论构建基础。预期损失模型仍未覆盖贷款利率风险的隐性损失,未来预期会被以公允价值为基础的贷款定价模型所取代。     

Evaluating Real Estate Valuation Systems

A framework for comparing real estate valuation systems (including automated valuation models (AVMs) and current appraisal methods) is proposed. The density estimation and profit simulation (DEPS) method measures quality of a valuation system by simulating benefits to the mortgage lender who uses this method in mortgage underwriting to limit mortgage portfolio losses due to default. Related simple measures relevant to the selection of a valuation system are also discussed: skewness of the distribution of errors, correlation of valuation errors with current selling price errors, correlation of errors of the valuation system with errors of valuation systems used by competing mortgage lenders, and other measures.     

全球化背景下中央银行的最后贷款人角色探讨

作为最后贷款人的中央银行,在当今全球化的背景下面临什么新问题、怎样解决呢?本文首先对全球化在金融领域的宏观表现进行观察,并进而总结了金融机构微观层面的变化;然后具体分析了封闭和开放经济中中央银行最后贷款人职能的理论基础。接下来,本文结合此次金融危机探讨了中央银行实现该功能的途径。此时,由于流动性短缺可能是源于外币资金的短缺,中央银行救助时就必须考虑可能引起的本币贬值、外汇储备流失等问题,增加了实现救助的难度和限制条件。另外,文章还从制度基础、救助时所具有的优势、现实困难和障碍等方面对IMF进行了讨论。     

清洁发展机制下核证减排量的定价分析

本文考察了中国清洁发展机制一级市场上核证减排量(pCER)的定价机制,运用VECM 模型分析了碳排放配额(EUA)与二级市场上核证减排量(sCER)的关系,运用NW OLS多元回归模型分析了影响sCER价格的因素.研究结果表明,pCER的价格由发达国家的投资者主导,买卖双方的风险与收益不匹配;二级市场上sCER的价格与...     

Productividad total de los factores en las terminales de contenedores en los puertos de México: una medición a través del índice Malmquist

This paper presents an analysis of change in the Total Factor Productivity (TFP) of container terminals in major ports in Mexico in the period 1982-2010. For this, we propose Malmquist Index, which decomposing the change in productivity in two factors: Change in efficiency (catch-up effect) and technological change (shift frontier). The results show that in general there was an increase in productivity over the period analyzed, which is explained by technological change; Manzanillo was the port that had higher growth in productivity, and opposite Tuxpan was the one who had the greatest reduction, it was due mainly for the negative trend in traffic mobilized during containers. These results show the need to develop public policies for ports to operate at maximum capacity.     

试论我国外汇管理体制改革的重点与政策取向

文章把国际收支作为研究分析外汇管理的切入点,分析我国当前外汇管理形势,结合我国国际收支状况,剖析国际收支形势对当前外汇管理工作的新挑战,从而指出我国外汇管理体制的改革重点与政策取向。     

Default prediction with dynamic sectoral and macroeconomic frailties

This paper extends the macroeconomic frailty model to include sectoral frailty factors that capture default correlations among firms in a similar business. We estimate sectoral and macroeconomic frailty factors and their effects on default intensity using the data for Japanese firms from 1992 to 2010. We find strong evidence for the presence of sectoral frailty factors even after accounting for the effects of observable covariates and macroeconomic frailty on default intensity. The model with sectoral frailties performs better than that without. Results show that accounting for the sources of unobserved sectoral default risk covariations improves the accuracy of default probability estimation.     

Whistle-blowing by external auditors: Seeking legitimacy for the South African Audit Profession?

Auditing is often cited as playing an important role in managing agency-related costs and, accordingly, being integral to the sound functioning of capital markets. There may, however, be more to the attest function than a technical rational practice. By virtue of relying heavily on claims to technical expertise, professionalism, prudential judgement and public confidence, auditing is both a source of legitimacy for organisations and, paradoxically, dependent on claims to legitimacy for its continued existence. From this perspective, recent regulatory developments, purportedly enacted to increase arms-length control over the profession, may not only be about improving perceived audit quality and practice but also about ensuring continued faith in the well-established ‘rituals’ of the assurance function. A reporting duty imposed on South African external auditors, akin to whistle-blowing, is used as a case study to explore this perspective. In doing so, this paper contributes to the scant body of interpretive research on auditing, simultaneously offering one of the first insights into auditing regulation from an African perspective.     

¿Influyen las Normas Internacionales de Información Financiera en el riesgo de las acciones?

The present research has two objectives. First, we study the determinants of stock risk. Second, we analyze whether International Financial Reporting Standard (IFRS) implemented in the Spanish market in 2005 has affected these determinants. It is quite important for both entrepreneurs and management professionals to understand the accounting information and macroeconomic factors that explain stock risk, since it suggests which factors can be used to estimate this risk, and hence, to analyze the evolution of cost of capital or discount rate. The discount rate plays an important role in wide range of financial decisions; whose value depends on the risk among other factors. Therefore, it is significant to obtain an objective estimation of discount rate, which is difficult to handle specifically in the context of small and medium sized enterprises (SMEs). Effective management involves the ability to forecast future changes, capture positive effects, and minimize negative ones. Once we find out the variables that can be utilized to explain the risk, we can observe and analyze their evolution to anticipate future changes in the discount rate.     

Tracking the international proceeds of corruption and the challenges of national boundaries and national agencies: the UK example

ABSTRACT

Corruption is a major inhibitor to economic growth, discouraging to domestic and foreign investment and destabilizing of governments. Unsurprisingly, international attention has intensified in recent years with global initiatives to counter corruption and address the proceeds of corruption. These have placed requirements upon national governments to increase transparency, reducing opportunities for use of the legitimate legal and financial infrastructure to disguise and move the proceeds of corruption. This paper reviews the boundaries at national and agency level that can create challenges for those agencies tasked with investigating and returning the proceeds of corruption to the countries from which they came. The paper considers the mechanisms that the agencies in a returning country—the UK—have at their disposal and whether national policy changes can affect their focus and operation. Specifically it reviews the role and future of the International Corruption Unit of the National Crime Agency.     

Index Option Pricing Models with Stochastic Volatility and Stochastic Interest Rates

This paper specifies a multivariate stochasticvolatility (SV) model for the S & P500 index and spot interest rateprocesses. We first estimate the multivariate SV model via theefficient method of moments (EMM) technique based on observations ofunderlying state variables, and then investigate the respective effects of stochastic interest rates, stochastic volatility, and asymmetric S & P500 index returns on option prices. We compute option prices using both reprojected underlying historical volatilities and the implied risk premiumof stochastic volatility to gauge each model's performance through direct comparison with observed market option prices on the index. Our major empirical findings are summarized as follows. First, while allowing for stochastic volatility can reduce the pricing errors and allowing for asymmetric volatility or leverage effect does help to explain the skewness of the volatility smile, allowing for stochastic interest rates has minimal impact on option prices in our case. Second, similar to Melino and Turnbull (1990), our empirical findings strongly suggest the existence of a non-zero risk premium for stochastic volatility of asset returns. Based on the implied volatility risk premium, the SV models can largely reduce the option pricing errors, suggesting the importance of incorporating the information from the options market in pricing options. Finally, both the model diagnostics and option pricing errors in our study suggest that the Gaussian SV model is not sufficientin modeling short-term kurtosis of asset returns, an SV model withfatter-tailed noise or jump component may have better explanatory power.