上市公司总经理报酬业绩敏感性研究

文章分析了公司的收益波动、公司财务杠杆、公司规模、董事会治理、大股东治理、经理自利特征对我国上市公司总经理报酬业绩敏感性的影响,发现前五个特征对报酬业绩敏感性无显著影响,但是总经理的双重身份、董事身份和其在董事会中任期这三个经理自利特征对报酬业绩敏感性有显著影响;更重要的发现是,当公司业绩变好时报酬业绩敏感性增加,当公司业绩下滑时报酬业绩敏感性减小,而总经理双重身份和其在董事会中任期这两个经理自利特征使报酬业绩敏感性进一步降低.     

融资约束、债务能力与公司业绩

本文利用短期融资券的推出作为自然实验研究金融创新引起的公司融资约束变化对公司经营业绩的影响,从而为金融发展与经济增长的关系提供微观证据。基于金融发展与经济增长关系中"分配金融资源"的理论观点——金融发展能够更加有效地分配资金资源,减少公司的融资约束,增加公司的业绩,本文提供了这一经济作用机制的实证证据。本文发现当短期融资券成为企业潜在的融资工具后,能够利用这一金融工具的企业在负债能力和投资能力方面有了大幅提高,其经营业绩也得到大幅增长。本文的证据表明金融工具创新和金融市场发展对公司价值产生了显著影响。     

中国上市公司多元化经营与公司业绩之间关系的实证分析

以中国A股上市公司为研究样本,实证检验多元化经营对公司业绩的影响。研究发现,多元化经营水平与公司长期会计业绩、短期会计业绩和短期市场业绩均显著负相关,与长期市场业绩及业绩波动程度呈不显著的负相关关系,这说明我国上市公司多元化经营的确存在折价效应。     

关于经理报酬激励问题的研究展望

本文对经理报酬决定的经济与非经济因素做了全面总结,然后分析了已有关于经理报酬研究的局限性,最后对未来研究作了展望：（1）关注经理报酬激励、公司业绩和公司治理之间内生关系;（2）采用公司战略导向的报酬契约观;（3）关注经理报酬契约与未来业绩之间的关系;（4）在经理报酬契约中采用相对业绩评价;（5）采用面板数据的固定效应模型;（6）关注非经济因素的影响;（7）重新审视线性报酬函数的合理性。     

风险投资对我国创业板公司业绩增长的影响

本文以2010年10月30日前在深交所创业板上市的134家公司为研究样本,实证检验了风险投资对创业板公司业绩增长的影响。研究发现:有风险投资背景的公司业绩增长显著高于无风险投资背景公司,表明风险投资的介入对创业板公司的业绩增长起到一定促进作用;但随着风险投资参与度的增大,创业板公司的业绩增长并未出现明显提升,相反,当风险投资持股比例超过30%后,创业板公司的业绩增长状况明显变差,这表明我国风险投资的运营与发展尚未成熟,创业企业对风险投资的引入应当适度。     

资产收购与控制权转移对经营业绩的影响

控制权转移对公司经营业绩的影响是金融学界和会计学界关注的一个重要问题。本文在剔除控制权转移之后的收购资产对经营业绩的额外贡献的基础上 ,同时运用变化模型和配对模型来研究控制权转移公司在控制权转移前后的业绩变化 ,得出了两个不同的结论。控制权转移对公司业绩的影响只能采用配对模型 ,而变化模型则可以揭示控制权转移之后股东财富的变化。研究结论表明 ,控制权转移对公司业绩的影响不显著 ,但股东从控制权转移公司所得到的报酬 ,如果剔除控制权转移之后的收购资产对经营业绩的贡献 ,其显著为负 ;如果不剔除控制权转移之后的收购资产对经营业绩的贡献 ,则其与零没有显著差异 ;控制权转移之后的资产收购对公司业绩的变化具有显著的影响 ,在研究控制权转移对公司业绩的影响时 ,需要考虑控制权转移之后的资产收购行为。     

公司业绩衡量经济附加值指标相关问题探讨

税后净利润、每股收益和净资产收益率三项指标通常作为衡量公司业绩指标.由于没有扣除公司股本资本的成本,时公司资本和利润的反映存在部分失真,为了解决这一缺陷,会计学术界提出了经济附加值衡量公司业绩指标,本文就公司传统业绩衡量指标存在的缺陷,经济附加值指标的基本原理,经济附加值的计算方法和经济附加值指标有效性实证分析等经济附加值指标相关问题进行初步探讨.     

宏观调控与美国经济增长--评克林顿政府的经济政策

正确的宏观调控政策是经济增长的保证。克林顿政府宏观经济政策的成功运用为其经济发展创造了良好的运行环境。 2 0世纪 90年代美国实现了持续 10年的高经济增长。本文评述了克林顿政府的宏观调控政策 ,并提出了对我国选择宏观经济政策的启示。     

会计准则变革对股权资本成本的影响研究——基于会计敏感性和经济敏感性视角的实证检验

股权资本成本是公司投资决策与业绩评价的基础.本文通过构建会计敏感性和经济敏感性两个公司特质指标,实证检验了我国会计准则变革对不同公司股权资本成本的影响.结果发现,会计准则变革从整体上降低了我国上市公司的股权资本成本;会计敏感性高的公司股权资本成本下降更明显;而经济敏感性高的公司股权资本成本下降得并不明显.笔者拓展了股权资本成本影响因素的分析视角,丰富了会计准则变革影响效应的经验证据,同时,本文构建的两个公司特质指标为相关实证研究也提供了借鉴.     

基于经济波动视角的绩差绩优企业的绩效变化分析

说明：如果以绩差公司的净资产收益率比绩优公司的净资产收益率作为一个指标,那么这个指标在经济景气度上升时将上升,在经济景气度下降时将下降。体现为经济景气时,绩优绩差公司业绩分化较小,而经济不景气时,绩优绩差公司业绩分化巨大。另外,如果考察业绩增长的百分比,绩差企业相比绩优企业在经济景气度上升时,增长的百分比更大,而在经济景气度下降时,业绩下降的百分比也更大,即业绩指标的波动很大,而绩优公司则要稳定得多。我们用国内上市公司的实证数据验证了这一结果。由于这样现象的存在,在对公司的业绩变化进行分析（无论是考查股权结构,利润分配政策等等对公司业绩的影响,还是以公司业绩增长情况为基础确定高管薪酬）时,经济波动对绩差绩优公司的不同影响都是应该考虑的因素。     

Monetary and fiscal policy transmission in Poland

This paper combines a fiscal structural vector-autoregression (SVAR) with a monetary SVAR for the Polish transition economy. Data are constructed from scratch in order to account for features of the transition economy and for delays in implementing legislated government spending and tax changes (fiscal foresight). For monetary policy, we find no price puzzles in the combined SVAR. Also, fiscal foresight variables have no statistically significant effects. We calculate an initial government spending multiplier of 0.70, which later peaks at 1.61 for the cumulative multiplier. This multiplier is much larger than multipliers estimated in previous studies not combining fiscal and monetary policy, where they were found to be close to zero. On the other hand, the tax multiplier is generally near zero in our study. We demonstrate the importance of combining fiscal and monetary transmission mechanisms when assessing the effects of government macroeconomic policies.     

Economic policy uncertainty and real output: evidence from the G7 countries

We use economic policy uncertainty index, and impulse response based test to assess the impact of economic policy-related uncertainty on real economic activity. We use monthly data, over the period from 1985:1 to 2015:3, and impulse response functions to investigate how the economies of the G7 countries respond to positive and negative economic policy uncertainty shocks of different magnitudes. We find that economic policy uncertainty is countercyclical, that the effects of uncertainty shocks increase with size and that the responses of real output to positive and negative economic policy uncertainty shocks are country specific. Our research is important for policymaking and in favour of policies that remove economic uncertainty and its negative effects on the economy. We argue that some control over yellow journalism, a transparent tax system and a set of predictable fiscal and monetary policies can minimize the social costs of economic policy uncertainty.     

我国企业投资对财政货币政策冲击反应的实证分析

本文运用结构向量自回归（SVAR）模型方法研究了我国企业投资对财政货币政策冲击的反应。通过采用1998年1月～2009年4月的月度数据实证研究表明：在经济周期的不同阶段,央行控制货币供给量的能力存在差异,导致货币政策执行效果不同。在经济繁荣阶段,社会资金运用效率较高,不存在剩余流动性,央行可以较容易地通过调整基础货币和货币乘数控制货币供给总量。这时货币供给的外生性较强,货币政策作用效果比较显著;而在经济衰退阶段,可选择的投资机会较少,流动性相对过剩,货币供给内生性增强,这时央行采取扩张性货币政策不能有效提高货币供给量,货币政策作用效果减弱。短期内虽然财政支出对企业投资会产生正向影响,但是负向影响要大于正向影响,也就是说财政政策对企业投资具有明显的挤出效应。     

The effects of economic policy uncertainty on China’s economy: evidence from time-varying parameter FAVAR

ABSTRACT

This article explores the effects of China’s economic policy uncertainty (EPU) on its fiscal policy, monetary policy and a wide range of macro-economic variables using a time-varying parameter FAVAR model. Based on monthly data from 07/2003 to 08/2017, the time-varying structure of the model allows us to capture the time-varying characteristics of the macro-economic variables and which channel is relevant. Empirical results reveal that the reaction of monetary and fiscal policies to EPU is highly asymmetric across macro-economic circumstances. Loose monetary and fiscal policies are adopted in response to EPU shocks during the financial crisis, while policies are moderately tightened after the crisis. The China Interbank Offered Rate (Chibor) responds more sensitively and severely than M2 to EPU shocks. Additionally, EPU shocks have a significant and negative impact on economic growth, consumption, exchange rates, bonds and the stock market, but showing a positive impact on credit, real estate and fixed asset investment (which might be due to China’s special economic market environment and the high investment return). The results indicate that EPU shocks significantly affect macroeconomic fundamentals through precautionary savings and financial market channels but lose their effectiveness through a ‘real options’ effect.     

我国财政货币政策作用关系实证研究--基于VAR模型的检验分析

文章通过构建一个真实GDP增长率、财政赤字占GDP比重、货币供给M2增长率、零售物价指数变化率等4个变量的VAR模型,对我国财政政策与货币政策相互作用的关系及其动态性进行了实证分析,通过模型设定、格兰杰因果关系检验、脉冲响应函数分析和预测方差分解,发现在我国不存在简单的财政货币政策的互补或替代关系,而是存在一种非对称性的关系,即扩张的货币政策伴随着收缩或稳健的财政政策,而扩张的财政政策导致被动扩张的货币政策,表现形式取决于具体宏观经济环境和经济冲击形式。同时,文章也得到其他一些结论,并认为,要增强政策的效率,必须强化央行的独立性,在现阶段需要严格控制赤字财政政策,以减少其对经济增长和经济波动的影响。     

Monetary and Fiscal Policy Interactions in the Euro Area

The problem of monetary and fiscal policy interactions is an important issue for the euro area, since the individual member states of the EMU are responsible for their fiscal policies but monetary policy is pursued by a single monetary authority, the ECB. This paper is concerned with empirical evidence on monetary and fiscal policy interactions in the euro area. We first explore fiscal regimes with a VAR model and find empirical evidence that a non-Ricardian fiscal policy has been pursued in both France and Germany. As an example, we then study how one member state of the EMU, namely, Italy, is responding to the common monetary policy with its fiscal policy and find that Italian fiscal policy seemed to be counteractive to the common monetary policy between 1979 and 1998. In order to study monetary and fiscal policy interactions in a more general way, we explore time-varying interactions by estimating a State-Space model with Markov-switching for some Euro-area countries. There appear to be some regime changes in monetary and fiscal policy interactions in France and Germany, but the interactions between the two policies are not strong. Moreover, the two policies have not been accommodative but counteractive to each other. Finally we explore forward-looking behavior in policy interactions and find that expectations do not seem to have played an important role in the policy designs.     

Further evidence on monetary and fiscal policy coordination

The extent to which fiscal and monetary policies respond to inflation and unemployment and the degree to which policy makers coordinate their policies have important implications for their usefulness as instruments of economic stabilization. Using a framework of minimizing a policy maker's loss function, subject to the state of the economy, this paper tests for the joint determination of monetary and fiscal policies. Our results show that the pre-Reagan/Bush and pre-Volcker/Greenspan eras can be characterized by a noncooperative game between the two policies. For the Reagan/Bush and Volcker/Greenspan regimes, our results are consistent with a cooperative game in which fiscal policy dominates and monetary policy accommodates. Our results also have implications for the possibility of future cooperation by policy makers.Financial support from Southwest Texas State University and DePaul University is gratefully acknowledged.     

Liquidity traps, learning and stagnation

We examine global economic dynamics under learning in a New Keynesian model in which the interest-rate rule is subject to the zero lower bound. Under normal monetary and fiscal policy, the intended steady state is locally but not globally stable. Large pessimistic shocks to expectations can lead to deflationary spirals with falling prices and falling output. To avoid this outcome we recommend augmenting normal policies with aggressive monetary and fiscal policy that guarantee a lower bound on inflation. In contrast, policies geared toward ensuring an output lower bound are insufficient for avoiding deflationary spirals.     

Monetary and fiscal policy interactions in a post Keynesian open-economy model

Using a post Keynesian model, this study aims to analyze the stabilizing role of fiscal and monetary policies in an open economy with a managed exchange rate regime. The real exchange rate is modeled as an endogenous variable and inflation explained using the conflicting claims approach. The dynamic properties of macroeconomic equilibrium are evaluated in different regimes of fiscal and monetary policies. The main result of this study suggests that the preferred policy regime is the one in which economic authorities are complementary and fiscal policy plays an explicitly active role. In this regime, the fiscal policy must commit to the target for the rate of capacity utilization and the monetary authority must commit to the inflation target.     

Stock market response to monetary and fiscal policy shocks: Multi-country evidence

A Structural VAR model is employed to investigate the effects of monetary and fiscal policy shocks on stock market performance in Germany, UK and the US. A significant number of past studies have concentrated their attention on the relationship between monetary policy and stock market performance, yet only few on the effects of fiscal policy on stock markets. Even more we know little, if any, on the effects of fiscal and monetary policies on stock market performance when the two policies interact. This study aims to fill this void. Our results show that both fiscal and monetary policies influence the stock market, via either direct or indirect channels. More importantly, we find evidence that the interaction between the two policies is very important in explaining stock market developments. Thus, investors and analysts in their effort to understand the relationship between macroeconomic policies and stock market performance should consider fiscal and monetary policies in tandem rather than in isolation.