共查询到20条相似文献，搜索用时 15 毫秒
1.
Peter S. Sephton 《Agricultural Economics》2009,40(1):103-111
Jin and Frechette (2004) examined the degree to which agricultural price volatilities exhibited evidence of fractional integration and concluded it was important to consider both long-run and short-run memory when modeling conditional variances. The purpose of this note is to revisit the issue using new methods and techniques which generally reaffirm the view that return volatilities are fractionally integrated and conditionally heteroskedastic, with many exhibiting significant leverage effects, a result not previously reported. 相似文献
2.
Sophie van Huellen 《Agricultural Economics》2018,49(2):171-181
Convergence between commodity futures prices and the underlying physical assets at each contract's expiration date is a pivotal condition for the market's functioning. Between 2005 and 2010, convergence failed for several U.S. grain markets. This article presents a price pressure‐augmented commodity storage model that links the scale of nonconvergence to financial investment channeled through indices, which are traded in commodity futures markets. The model is empirically tested, using Markov regime‐switching regression analysis. Regression results strongly support the model's predicted link between index investment and the extent of nonconvergence for three grains traded at the Chicago Board of Trade: wheat, corn, and soybeans. 相似文献
3.
Recent accusations against speculators in general and long-only commodity index funds in particular include: increasing market volatility, distorting historical price relationships, and fueling a rapid increase and decrease in the level of commodity prices. Some researchers have argued that these market participants—through their impact on market prices—may have inadvertently prevented the efficient distribution of food aid to deserving groups. Certainly, this result—if substantiated—would counter the classical argument that speculators make prices more efficient and thus improve the economic efficiency of the food marketing system. Given the very important policy implications, it is crucial to develop a more thorough understanding of long-only index funds and their potential market impact. Here, we review the criticisms (and rebuttals) levied against (and for) commodity index funds in recent U.S. Congressional testimonies. Then, additional empirical evidence is added regarding cross-sectional market returns and the relative levels of long-only index fund participation in 12 commodity futures markets. The empirical results provide scant evidence that long-only index funds impact returns across commodity futures markets. 相似文献
4.
This article analyzes the impact of road rehabilitation on the spatial market efficiency of maize markets in Mozambique. We estimate a modified version of the Parity Bounds Model (PBM) that allows us to test the impact of road rehabilitation on spatial efficiency. This article seeks to contribute to the existing literature in three ways. First, a unique data set, where road rehabilitation episodes between market pairs are identified, is developed. Second, special care is devoted to estimation of transaction costs due to the sensitivity of the PBM model to the quality of transaction costs estimates. Finally, as opposed to most existing literature that focuses on relatively distant markets, the article focuses on spatially closed markets. We find that maize markets tend to be segmented due to high transport costs. Following road rehabilitation, inefficiency and average absolute price differentials tend to decrease, and market pairs have tended to shift toward autarky regimes. Overall, while the results point broadly toward a positive impact of road rehabilitation on spatial efficiency, they are not as strong or as robust as one would like. Large increases in fuel prices likely offset the positive impacts of road rehabilitation on transaction costs, contributing to the increase in the probability of being in an autarky regime. 相似文献
5.
Maize (Zea mays) shortages and maize price instability continue to occur in Mozambique in spite of policy reforms and great capacity for increased production in northern Mozambique. This study measured the efficiency of spatial maize price arbitrage in Mozambique's post‐reform period. Spatial price inefficiency does not seem to explain why food shortages continue to occur in Mozambique, suggesting nonprice market constraints such as poor infrastructure and poor market institutions as more likely explanations. Baulch's spatial efficiency test indicated that it is not profitable to ship maize from northern surplus maize regions to southern Mozambique. Records of interregional maize shipments show that indeed grain is not being shipped from the north to the south. Market liberalization may have improved spatial price efficiency, but high transfer costs still limit trade and potential benefits from freeing markets. Under these circumstances, food shortages and price instability are likely to continue. 相似文献
6.
The use by farmers of futures contracts and other hedging instruments has been observed to be low in many situations, and this has sometimes seemed to be considered surprising or even mysterious. We propose that it is, in fact, readily understandable and consistent with rational decision making. Standard models of the decision about optimal hedging show that it is negatively related to basis risk, to quantity risk, and to transaction costs. Farmers who have less uncertainty about prices and those with a diversified portfolio of investments have lower optimal levels of hedging. If a farmer has optimistic price expectations relative to the futures market, the incentive to hedge can be greatly reduced. And finally, farmers who have low levels of risk aversion have little to gain from hedging in terms of risk reduction, in that the certainty‐equivalent payoff at their optimal hedge may be little different than the certainty equivalent under zero hedging. These reasons are additional to the argument of Simmons (2002) who showed that, if capital markets are efficient, farmers can manage their risk exposure through adjusting their leverage, obviating the need for hedging instruments. 相似文献
7.
Xiaohui Deng Barry J. Barnett Dmitry V. Vedenov Joe W. West 《Agricultural Economics》2007,36(2):271-280
This article proposes a temperature–humidity index insurance product and examines whether this product can effectively protect against the risk of reduced milk production caused by heat stress. Results suggest that even when premiums are at higher than actuarially fair levels and the insurance purchaser is faced with both spatial and temporal basis risks, a temperature–humidity index insurance product would provide risk management benefits to a representative south‐central Georgia dairy producer. 相似文献
8.
Scott H. Irwin 《Agricultural Economics》2013,44(Z1):29-41
The “Masters Hypothesis” is the claim that unprecedented buying pressure in recent years from commodity index investors created massive bubbles in food and energy prices. The purpose of this article is to review the evidence from recent studies that investigate the empirical relationship between index investment and price movements in agricultural futures markets. One line of research uses time‐series regression tests, such as Granger causality tests, to investigate the relationship between price movements and index positions. This research provides little evidence in support of the Masters Hypothesis in agricultural futures markets. A second line of research uses cross‐sectional regression tests and studies in this area provide very limited evidence in favor of the Masters Hypothesis for agricultural futures markets. A third line of research investigates whether there is a significant relationship between commodity index trading and the difference, or spread, between futures prices of different contract maturities on the same date. These studies report a range of results depending on the type of test. However, the bulk of the evidence indicates either no relationship or a negative relationship, which is once again inconsistent with the Masters Hypothesis. Overall, this growing body of literature fails to find compelling evidence that buying pressure from commodity index investment in recent years caused a massive bubble in agricultural futures prices. The Masters Hypothesis is simply not a valid characterization of reality. 相似文献
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10.
Gaminda Ganewatta Robert Waschik Sisira Jayasuriya Geoff Edwards 《Agricultural Economics》2005,33(3):341-350
Governments in many developing countries, influenced by the experience of the East Asian newly industrialized countries, have adopted policies to enhance domestic processing of primary commodities as a tool for accelerating employment growth, export revenues, and development. Sri Lanka has traditionally exported tea in the form of bulk (commodity) teas, but “value‐added” teas such as packaged teas, tea bags, etc., have expanded in recent years. This article examines factors affecting the processing of value‐added tea products in Sri Lanka by modeling export supply behavior. Estimates of the long‐run relationship and short‐run dynamics of export supply are presented and discussed. The price of value‐added tea relative to bulk tea, and industry capacity, are identified as the main determinants of export supply, while exchange rate changes have no discernible effect. The policy implications of the analysis for enhancing further expansion of such value‐added teas are presented. These are of interest for both policy makers and development analysts. In particular, the reasons that undermine the effectiveness of exchange rate policy as an instrument to stimulate value addition of primary products have much relevance for similar developing countries. 相似文献
11.
S. Andrew Starbird 《Agricultural Economics》2007,36(3):325-334
Diagnostic tests provide valuable information to buyers about credence attributes such as food safety and GMO content. Errors in testing, however, can mislead buyers and lead to problems such as adverse selection. The ability to segregate suppliers who can deliver safe food from suppliers who cannot depends on the accuracy of the test procedure. In this article we examine the effect of test sensitivity, specificity, and sampling error on the ability to segregate safe and unsafe suppliers. We find that there is a maximum level of error below which unsafe suppliers are deterred from accepting a utility maximizing buyer's bid price. The maximum error depends on the probability that a supplier's production is unsafe and the cost of producing an unsafe lot, among other things. Understanding this relationship makes it possible to design contracts and government regulations that discourage unsafe suppliers from trading. 相似文献
12.
We investigate how lumber futures returns are affected by monthly housing starts announcements and analyze the dependence of the response on lumber inventories and time to delivery. To do so we develop a generalized least squares (GLS) method to jointly analyze simultaneously traded contracts. We find that increases in the unanticipated component of housing starts announcements increase returns on lumber futures contracts. Further, and as predicted by the theory of storage but previously unrecorded, the effects of housing starts shocks decline with lumber inventories. There is also a time-to-delivery effect: near-delivery contracts respond more sharply to housing starts news than do farther-out contracts. 相似文献
13.
The Chicago Mercantile Exchange introduced a futures contract for distillers’ dried grains (DDGs) in early 2010, but the market became inactive only four months after its inception. While many new futures contracts do not develop into high‐volume traders, interest from DDG cash market participants indicated that this contract could be successful. Prompted by the unexpected lack of trading activity in this new futures market, we empirically revisit the question of what factors contribute to a futures contract's success and extend the literature by investigating the roles of market participants and the significance of supporting futures markets. Estimation results indicate that the market participant type—hedger or speculator—affects futures contract trade volume. More importantly, we find that the viability of new futures contracts for commodities that are jointly produced with other commodities is impacted by hedgers’ trade volume of the related futures contract. These results provide important additions into the portfolio of indicators used by commodity exchanges to more cost‐effectively evaluate new futures contract products. 相似文献
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15.
John K. M. Kuwornu W. Erno Kuiper Joost M. E. Pennings Matthew T. G. Meulenberg 《Journal of Agricultural Economics》2005,56(3):417-432
We use the classic agency model to derive a time‐varying optimal hedge ratio for low‐frequency time‐series data: the type of data used by crop farmers when deciding about production and about their hedging strategy. Rooted in the classic agency framework, the proposed hedge ratio reflects the context of both the crop farmer's decision and the crop farmer's contractual relationships in the marketing channel. An empirical illustration of the Dutch ware potato sector and its futures market in Amsterdam over the period 1971–2003 reveals that the time‐varying optimal hedge ratio decreased from 0.34 in 1971 to 0.24 in 2003. The hedging effectiveness, according to this ratio, is 39%. These estimates conform better with farmers’ interest in using futures contracts for hedging purposes than the much higher estimates obtained when price risk minimisation is the only objective considered. 相似文献
16.
Both informal and formal loans matter in agriculture. However, formal lenders provide many more production loans than informal lenders, often at a cost (mostly loan default cost) higher than what they can recover. For example, the Agricultural Development Bank of Pakistan (ADBP), providing about 90% of formal loans in rural areas, incurs high loan default costs. Yet, like other governments, the Government of Pakistan supports the formal scheme on the grounds that lending to agriculture is a high risk activity because of covariate risk. Hence, such policies are often based on a market failure argument. As farm credit schemes are subsidised, policy makers must know if these schemes are worth supporting. Using a recent large household survey data from rural Pakistan (Rural Financial Market Studies or RFMS), we have attempted to estimate the effectiveness of the ADBP as a credit delivery institution. A two‐stage method that takes the endogeneity of borrowing into account is used to estimate credit impact. Results reveal that ADBP contributes to household welfare and that its impact is higher for smallholders than for large holders. Nevertheless, large holders receive the bulk of ADBP finance. The ADBP is, thus, not a cost‐effective institution in delivering rural finance. Its cost‐effectiveness can be improved by reducing its loan default cost and partially by targeting smallholders in agriculture where credit yields better results. 相似文献
17.
Tom Hertz 《Agricultural Economics》2009,40(2):161-176
This article documents a relationship between nonfarm income (primarily earnings and pensions) and agricultural investment in Bulgaria, specifically, expenditures on working capital (variable inputs such as feed, seed, and herbicides) and investment in livestock. Among those with positive spending on farm inputs, the estimated elasticity of these expenditures with respect to nonfarm income is 0.14. Nonfarm income also has an effect on the number of households that purchase farm animals, with an estimated elasticity of 0.35. The use of nonfarm income for farm investment is consistent with the presence of credit constraints, as is the fact that less than one percent of farmers report outstanding debts for agricultural purposes. Yet many farm households take out large unsecured loans for other purposes, primarily to cover consumption expenditures, implying that credit is available, but that farmers prefer not to use borrowed funds to finance agricultural investment. This would suggest that increases in the availability of agricultural credit may have little effect on farm outcomes, whereas increases in nondebt-financed sources of liquidity, such as subsidies or transfers, may better stimulate investment. 相似文献
18.
Martin Petrick 《Agricultural Economics》2005,33(2):191-203
Empirical analysis of rural credit market failure has been of key scientific and political interest in recent years. The aim of this article is to give an overview of the various methods for measuring credit rationing that are employed in the literature. Furthermore, the methods are subjected to a comparative evaluation of their specific strengths or shortcomings. Six approaches are distinguished: measurement of loan transaction costs, analysis of qualitative information collected in interviews, analysis of quantitative information collected in interviews using the credit limit concept, analysis of spill‐over effects with regard to secondary credit sources, econometric household modeling, and the econometric analysis of dynamic investment decisions. An explicit comparison with a first‐best solution is impossible in the first three approaches, since they essentially rely on a subjective assessment of borrowers' access to credit, based on qualitative or quantitative indicators. The fifth and sixth approaches allow a rigorous interpretation in the framework of neoclassical equilibrium theory. The fourth approach takes an intermediate position, since spill‐over on segmented loan markets reveals a willingness to pay with regard to the supposedly less expensive but rationed primary source. The approaches are fairly data demanding in general, usually requiring specific data on loan transactions. Even so, most approaches are applicable to cross‐sectional household data. With the exception of the first, all methods surveyed might plausibly be used to empirically detect credit rationing. 相似文献
19.
Rodolfo M. Nayga Jr. Mary Gillett Fisher Benjamin Onyango 《Agricultural Economics》2006,34(3):331-341
This study examines public perceptions of biotechnology, specifically the consumer approval of genetically modified food products, from plant as well as from animal origin, based on data collected from national surveys conducted in both the United States and South Korea. South Korean consumers reported better understanding of food production, science, and technology relative to U.S. consumers. South Korean consumers also recalled having heard more about genetic modification than did U.S. consumers. Findings also suggest that consumers in the United States and South Korea who possessed an accurate knowledge of the applications and outcomes of genetic modification technology were more likely to approve of its use for the creation of foods than those who had inaccurate or no knowledge of the technology. Results also indicate that consumers who considered labeling of genetically modified foods to be necessary are less likely to approve of the genetic modification of foods than those who did not. Consumers in both countries are less approving of genetic modification of animals than the genetic modification of plants. However, U.S. consumers are more approving of using genetic modification technology to create animal‐derived foods than are South Korean consumers. 相似文献
20.
Recent labeling policies in developed countries place new focus on origin labeling, especially country of origin labeling, for a variety of food products. It is not clear if this new emphasis on origin is the result of more ethnocentric consumer preferences for food. We measure consumer preferences for country of origin in four different international locations and one domestic control location using a conjoint experiment to test the null hypotheses that consumers do not have stronger own-country preferences. In addition, we compare the relative importance of consumer preferences for origin to their preferences for genetically modified food and pesticide-free production using attribute coefficients from within location ordered probit models. The study was conducted in China, France, Niger, and the United States. We find consumers tend to prefer food from their own location indicating ethnocentric tendencies do play a role in shaping country-of-origin preferences. Country of origin is generally less important to consumers than genetically modified food content and pesticide use in food production. 相似文献