信用卡创新,在风险中摸索前行

对于信用卡行业而言,创新是一个永恒的主题.正如工商银行牡丹卡中心总裁李卫平所言:"信用卡产品的同质性决定了其竞争的核心是基于产品持续创新的差异化服务和品牌效应."近年来,为提高核心竞争力,国内的发卡机构在产品、渠道、业务模式等方面的创新力度不断加大,成绩可圈可点.     

Land use, economy and ecology Needs and prospects for co-evolutionary development

This article examines new developments which may pose a threat to coevolutionary development in Europe, and scrutinizes in particular the current agricultural policies of the European Community (EC). With the help of a threefold typology—ecological, traditional and modern—the likely perceptions and behaviour of farmers in the face of external change are discussed. On this basis the authors identify research needs, and draw up an extensive research agenda which will have to be addressed if ecologically sustainable agricultural development and land use are to be promoted.     

Fluctuations in innovations overtime

This paper first explains the concept of innovation life cycles and their relationship to leading sectors of the economy. It then briefly describes the relationship between innovation life cycles and long waves in macro-economic development, and presents a chronology and characterisation of the four phases of the long wave derived from Schumpeter. Various phases of the long wave could be expected to have different effects on the propensity to innovate, and this propensity probably varies also between new industries and existing established industries, as well as between product and process innovations. A list ef 80 major innovations is classified by sector and date, to provide a preliminary empirical validation of the hypotheses advanced on the varying influence of the successive phases of the long wave on different types of innovation. Finally, the author's findings are compared with those of Mensch and Schmookler.     

勇于创新 业绩喜人——访中国农业银行个人金融部副总经理李国峰

一直以来,借记卡为人们提供着方便、快捷、安全的支付方式。中国农业银行（以下简称＂农行＂）不仅是新中国设立的第一家商业银行和改革开放后第一家恢复成立的国家专业银行,     

Executable declarative business rules and their use in electronic commerce

Business rules are statements which are used to run the activities of an organization. In the era of electronic commerce it is important for these rules to be represented explicitly, and to be automatically applicable. In this paper we argue that methods from the field of knowledge representation can be used for this purpose. In particular, we propose the use of defeasible reasoning, a simple but efficient reasoning method based on rules and priorities. We motivate the use of defeasible reasoning, give examples, describe two case studies, and outline current and future work in our research. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Technological innovations and aggregate risk premiums

In this paper, I propose that technological innovations increase expected stock returns and premiums at the aggregate level. I use aggregate patent data and research and development (R&D) data to measure technological innovations in the U.S., and find that patent shocks and R&D shocks have positive and distinct predictive power for U.S. market returns and premiums. Similar patterns are also found in international data including other G7 countries, China, and India. These findings are consistent with previous empirical studies based on firm-level data, and call for further theoretical explanations.     

Exchange rates,innovations and forecasting

In this paper an ex-post forecasting experiment is performed on the basis of a version of the ‘news’ model of exchange rate determination. For several exchange rates the ‘news’ formulation of monetary exchange rate models leads to relatively accurate ex-post exchange rate forecasts at a number of forecasting horizons. For a majority of the exchange rates studied, however, the results do not compare favorably with those obtained from the naive random walk forecasting rule. Thus, the findings in this article provide mixed evidence with regard to a suggestion in the literature that the finding by Meese and Rogoff that structural models do not even outperform the random walk in an ex-post forecasting experiment, may be due to the fact that these models were not properly tested in a ‘news’ framework.     

我眼中的银行卡业务创新

创新乃发展动力之源.创新活动已经通过银行卡业务渗透到人们生活的各个方面. 创新有时是从遵循规则管理的需求中创造出来的,有时却是从处理危机的过程中创造出来的.比如在美国次贷危机中,为应急救市,美联储推出了短期标售工具(TAF)、定期证券借贷工具(TSLF)、初级交易商信贷工具(PDCF)和定期同购协议等新货币政策工具,为美联储在未来持续监管并盘活市场提供了有力的帮助.<美股研究报告>(Channel Capital Research)首席投资分析师DougRoberts认为,"TAF是联储三四十年来最伟大的创新".     

Asymmetric temporary and permanent stock-price innovations

This paper estimates a nonlinear, structural bivariate threshold model in order to identify independent temporary and permanent stock-price innovations in positive-return and negative-return regimes. The model finds that temporary innovations account for as much as 68% of the innovations after negative returns and less than 4% of the innovations after positive returns. This paper shows that the negative-return regime is also the high-volatility regime, a result that links the excess-volatility and asymmetric-volatility literatures. This link provides evidence that temporary stock-price innovations are due primarily to time-varying expected returns in an efficient market and not to a market inefficiency.     

Analysing long memory and asymmetries

The paper presents evidence on nonlinearities in Finnish financial time series. The analysis concentrates on the so-called long-memory property which is examined using, various alternative test procedures. This analysis makes use of relatively long monthly Finnish time series which cover the period 1922–1996. The results give some evidence on long memory but one cannot say that the results would overwhelmingly support the existence of long memory in Finnish time series. There are, however, considerable differences between variables and the results are quite sensitive in terms of the treatment of short memory which also applies to different ways of prefiltering the data. Clearly more work is required to obtain more affirmative results in this respect. One way, of doing that is to apply asymmetric time models to find the source of nonlinearity. When that is done with the Finnish data some weak evidence on asymmetry is obtained.     

我国金融服务创新及其动因

金融服务是指金融机构运用货币交易手段融通有价物品,向金融活动参与者和顾客提供的共同受益、获得满足的服务。广义上的金融服务,是指整个金融业发挥其多种功能以促进经济与社会的发展。具体来说,金融服务是指金融机构通过开展业务活动为客户提供包括融资投资、储蓄、信贷、结算、证券买卖、商业保险和金融信息咨询等多方面的服务。     

Long waves,inventions, and innovations

It is argued that aggregate R and D and patenting activity, while generally less volatile than short term economic activity, is more closely related to the latter in the longer term. Second, ‘fundamental’ or ‘basic’ inventions exhibit a clustering behaviour, although there appears to be no clear-cut relationship with the overall level of economic activity. Third, we find no support for Mensch's argument that lead times between invention and innovation contracted in the 1930s. Fourth, we find some evidence for a bunching of innovations in the 1930s, but this does not appear due to depression-induced acceleration. Fifth, in the particular case of plastics, where the 1930s clustering is particularly clear, the forces at work were primarily related to ‘science push’ and the particular requirements of the German economy.     

Economies of scale in innovations with block-busters

Abstract

Are large-scale research programmes that include many projects more productive than smaller ones with fewer projects? This problem of economies of scale is relevant for understanding recent mergers, in particular in the pharmaceutical industry. We present a quantitative theory based on the characterization of distributions of discounted sales S resulting from new innovations. Assuming that these complementary cumulative distributions have fat tails with approximate power law structure S ^?α, we demonstrate that economies of scales are realized if and only if α<1. ‘Economies of scale’ is here understood according to the criterion that the probability to earn more than any fixed factor proportional to its size N is larger for the merged company C=A+B of size N _A+N _B than for any of the two component companies A and B with size N _A and N _B. In essence, the mechanism underlying the ‘economies of scale’ is that a very large payoff from a successful project can pay for all of the losing projects. Some empirical evidence suggests that α?2/3 for the pharmaceutical industry. This could provide a simple rationalization for recent mergers or alternatively for portfolio diversification since the same effect could also be achieved in part if each firm held shares in all of its competitors.     

Modernizing Financial Regulation: The Relation Between Interbank Transactions and Supervisory Reform

Modernized financial firms are larger than traditional institutions, and they provide a broader range of services. Although the individual regulatory issues raised by modernization are not new, the pace and scope of these market changes may imply a qualitative change in the ability of governments to guarantee financial system stability. Private market discipline is more flexible, and the value of flexibility seems to have risen. In order to elicit private monitoring, however, governments must credibly eschew too-big-to-fail policies. Toward this end, national regulators should encourage ongoing efforts to implement secure interbank settlement systems.     

Boom and bust patterns in the adoption of financial innovations

We develop a dynamic model of the adoption of financial innovations.Each period, firms decide whether or not to adopt an innovationof uncertain value, and the profitability of each period's adoptionsreveals information about the innovations's value. We show thatcharacteristics of financial innovation waves cited by criticsas evidence of irrational excess are, in fact, consistent withfully rational behavior. We also show that social welfare isenhanced when more firms adopt innovations of questionable valueand that financial intermediaries have an incentive to encouragesuch adoption.     

The role of liquidity in futures market innovations

I characterize the optimal design of a new futures market (aninnovation) by an exchange in the presence of market frictions.Futures markets are characterized by both the contract and thelevel of trader participation; both can be determined by anexchange. A game in which exchanges simultaneously design marketsis considered, and a particular equilibrium (not necessarilyunique) is constructed. A game in which exchanges sequentiallydesign markets (and incur design costs) is also considered andthe (generically unique) equilibrium is constructed. The natureof equilibrium with multiple exchanges is discussed in thesesimultaneous and sequential settings, illustrating the roleplayedby liquidity considerations both in market design and in thenature of competition between exchanges.     

我国金融超市的管理创新策略研究

一、金融超市的功能及产生背景金融超市是指银行对其经营的各种产品和服务经过有机整合,并通过与保险公司、证券公司、房地产公司、汽车经销商、大型商业机构、行政管理部门等开展业务合作,面向个人客户提供的一种涵盖众多金融产品与增值服务的一体化经营方式的金融机构。金融超市是对我国传统金融组织体系的突破,是商业银行组织体系、业务体系、产品体系以及政策体系的一种创新。1.金融超市的功能自2001年9月农业银行在全国率先开设“百家金融超市”至今,已有包括交通银行、中信实业银行及建设银行在内的多家银行发展了700多家金融超市。虽…     

Economic policy and prospects

Though now into their second term of office, the Government are still trying to fulfil the objectives of the first ‐ to cut public spending and reduce taxes. The hard choices they eventually make will in part be dictated by the following sorts of considerations:

• technical ‐ year‐to‐year forecasts

• economic ‐ growth in gdp

• political ‐ reduction in income support.

At the centre of these and other often conflicting sets of considerations is the Chancellor of the Exchequer. Chancellors make many statements, but few are as clear as that made by Nigel Lawson, in the course of an interview with Max Wilkinson, economics editor of the Financial Times, from which we have extracted the following.     

花旗在巴西

1902年,美国康狄涅克州的International Banking Corporation在上海设立分行.那时正是中国的清末,"体制内"的一般官吏士绅对世界大势暧昧不明,还在品茗阔论皇威浩荡,四海晏平.美国的这个赚钱机器安家上海滩,未免使他们皱了皱眉头,但也随即很慷慨地奉赠它一个宝号:"万国通宝".用"通宝"去对译洋文的"Banking",确是曲尽其妙了.但洋文古怪,绝似鸟语,凑搭不上华夏经典的什么"裕泰"、"盛魁",那可真是无可奈何的事.可是上海的细民百姓连这个近乎雅的"通宝"也不甚了了,觉得别扭难记.