Multivariate FIAPARCH modelling of financial markets with dynamic correlations in times of crisis

This paper applies the vector AR-DCC-FIAPARCH model to eight national stock market indices' daily returns from 1988 to 2010, taking into account the structural breaks of each time series linked to the Asian and the recent Global financial crisis. We find significant cross effects, as well as long range volatility dependence, asymmetric volatility response to positive and negative shocks, and the power of returns that best fits the volatility pattern. One of the main findings of the model analysis is the higher dynamic correlations of the stock markets after a crisis event, which means increased contagion effects between the markets. The fact that during the crisis the conditional correlations remain on a high level indicates a continuous herding behaviour during these periods of increased market volatility. Finally, during the recent Global financial crisis the correlations remain on a much higher level than during the Asian financial crisis.     

The US financial crisis,market volatility,credit risk and stock returns in the Americas

We employ the multivariate DCC-GARCH model to identify contagion from the USA to the largest developed and emerging markets in the Americas during the US financial crisis. We analyze the dynamic conditional correlations between stock market returns, changes in the general economy’s credit risk represented by the TED spread, and changes in the US market volatility represented by the CBOE Volatility Index^® (VIX). Our sample includes daily closing prices from January 1, 2002 to December 31, 2015, for the USA and stock markets in Argentina, Brazil, Canada, Chile, Colombia, Mexico, and Peru. We first identify that increases in VIX have a negative intertemporal and contemporaneous relationship with most of the stock returns, and these relationships increase significantly during the US financial crisis. We then find evidence of significant increases in contemporaneous conditional correlations between changes in the TED spread and stock returns. Increases in conditional correlations during the financial crisis are associated with financial contagion from the USA to the Americas. Our findings have policy implications and are of interest to practitioners since they illustrate that during periods of financial distress, US stock volatility and weakening credit market conditions could promote financial contagion to the Americas.

     

Liquidity risk and stock performance during the financial crisis

We investigate whether and how ex-ante liquidity risk affects realized stock returns during the global financial crisis of 2008–2009 in international equity markets. We find that stocks with higher pre-crisis return exposure to global market liquidity shocks experience larger price reductions during the crisis period. Our findings provide further insight into the comprehensive picture of the effect of liquidity risk on asset prices, especially in an international context and under different market conditions.     

Global financial crisis and emerging stock market contagion: A volatility impulse response function approach

By employing the volatility impulse response (VIRF) approach, this paper presents a general framework for addressing the extent of contagion effects between the BRICSs’ and U.S. stock markets and how the BRICSs’ stock markets have been influenced in the context of the 2007–2009 global financial crisis. Our empirical results show during the period of 2007–2009 global financial crisis, there are significant contagion effects from the U.S. to the BRICSs’ stock markets. Yet, the degree of stock market reactions to such shocks differs from one market to another, depending on the level of integration with the international economy. Besides, the strengthened degree of stock market integration among the U.S. and BRICS has adverse effect such that if the 2007–2009 global financial crisis occurs today it may result in heavier impact on stock market volatility nowadays compared to the crisis-era.     

Time-varying impacts of demand and supply oil shocks on correlations between crude oil prices and stock markets indices

This paper investigates the time-varying impacts of demand and supply oil shocks on correlations between changes in crude oil prices and stock markets returns. The findings, obtained by means of a DCC-GARCH from June 2006 to June 2016, indicate that demand shocks positively affected the correlations between crude oil prices and stock market returns from late 2007 to mid-2008, during the apex of the financial markets volatility; from early 2009 to mid-2013, during global economy recovery from the financial crisis; and after 2015, when uncertainties about the Chinese growth and the US economy upturning arose. The dynamic conditional correlation, obtained after the removal of demand shocks effects, presented an average value of 0.13 when all economy sectors were considered and of 0.03 when the energy sector returns were excluded from the stock index. These correlations, still positive on average, suggest that exogenous supply oil shocks had little impact on US mainly enterprises cash flows over the last 10 years. Exceptions are the periods from 2006 to financial crisis and from 2014 until April 2016, when significant and unpredicted changes in oil market happened, considerably affecting the value of the main US companies.     

An asymmetric dynamic conditional correlation analysis of linkages of European financial institutions during the Greek sovereign debt crisis

This article employs the asymmetric dynamic conditional correlation (DCC) model to assess impacts of the recent sovereign debt crisis on the time-varying correlations of five European financial institutions holding large amounts of Greek sovereign bonds (National Bank of Greece, BNP Paribas, Dexia, Generali, and Commerzbank). Contrary to the results of preceding studies, we find significant increases in the correlations between several combinations of the financial institutions’ stock returns after the inception of the sovereign debt crisis, indicating contagion effects. Moreover, our findings show that the parameter of the standardized negative residuals is statistically significant in the case of DCC estimates between two specific institutions. This suggests that the conditional correlation of stock returns between the two institutions is more significantly influenced by negative shocks than by positive innovations to return.     

Stock market contagion in Central and Eastern Europe: unexpected volatility and extreme co-exceedance

We examine whether there is contagion from the US stock market to six Central and Eastern European stock markets. We use a novel measure of contagion that examines whether volatility shocks in the US stock market coupled with negative returns are followed by higher co-exceedance between US and emerging stock markets. Using our approach and controlling for a set of market-related variables, we show that during the period from 1998 to 2014, financial contagion occurred, that is, unexpected negative events in the US market are followed by higher co-exceedance between US and Central and Eastern European stock markets. Even though contagion is stronger during the financial crisis, it also occurs in tranquil times.     

Stock market recovery from the 2008 financial crisis: The differences across Europe

This study investigates the influence of the 2008 financial crisis on a number of European stock markets. The sample includes EU benchmark indices as well as European markets with slowed or hampered recovery over a period of ten years (2004–2014) thus allowing a comparison on their development before, during and after the crisis. We utilize a novel approach based on a combination of stochastic modeling and continuous wavelet transform. It enables a robust distinction between expected and unexpected spillover effects as well as assessment of the expected speed of European stock markets recovery. It further quantifies the temporal boundaries of absorption of negative and positive shocks coming from the US stock market and explains the observed asymmetry. The studied European markets are divided into several groups and expectations are built on the speed of their recovery. We find that the major reasons for the discrepancies observed between actual and expected recovery for some of the markets are due to structural breaks in the co-movement with US market as well as to weak domestic fundamentals.     

Spillover effects of the 2008 global financial crisis on the volatility of the Indian equity markets: Coupling or uncoupling? A study on sector-based data

This paper focuses on the following question: has the global financial stress in the US markets during the subprime crisis induced a persistent volatility of Indian equity stocks? We answer this question using sector-based data and we propose a simple stochastic volatility model augmented with exogenous inputs (financial stress indicators in the US market). We derive analytically the autocorrelation of the squared returns using cross-moments and estimate the impact of several variables such as the CDS spreads, the ABCP spreads, market liquidity, the volatility of the S&P 500 using a Kalman filter approach with the impact captured through Almon polynomials. We find a strong evidence of persistent volatility irrespective of the sector and interpret this finding as the result of two factors: the lower liquidity of the Indian equity markets during the subprime crisis and a wake-up call effect.     

Impact of the global financial crisis on Islamic and conventional stocks and bonds

This study explores the impact of the global financial crisis (GFC) on Islamic and conventional stock and bond indices in 11 Islamic and eight non‐Islamic countries. We find that there are benefits of Islamic stocks during the GFC, particularly during the early stage of the crisis because Islamic institutions are prohibited from holding sub‐prime mortgage securities and derivatives. The strongest benefits of Islamic stocks are in the UK and USA. We conclude that there are benefits of risk reduction and stability for Islamic stocks during a financial crisis, although not necessarily during a global recession.     

The Effect of US Stock Market Uncertainty on Emerging Market Returns

We investigate the effects of US stock market uncertainty (VIX) on the stock returns in Latin America and aggregate emerging markets before, during, and after the financial crisis. We find that increases in VIX lead to significant immediate and delayed declines in emerging market returns in all periods. However, changes in VIX explained a greater percentage of changes in emerging market returns during the financial crisis than in other periods. The higher US stock market uncertainty exerts a much stronger depressing effect on emerging market returns than their own-lagged and regional returns. Our risk transmission model suggests that a heightened US stock market uncertainty lowers emerging market returns by both reducing the mean returns and raising the variance of returns. The VIX fears raise the volatility of emerging market returns through generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH)-type volatility transmission processes.     

Granger-causality in quantiles between financial markets: Using copula approach

This paper considers the Granger-causality in conditional quantile and examines the potential of improving conditional quantile forecasting by accounting for such a causal relationship between financial markets. We consider Granger-causality in distributions by testing whether the copula function of a pair of two financial markets is the independent copula. Among returns on stock markets in the US, Japan and U.K., we find significant Granger-causality in distribution. For a pair of the financial markets where the dependent (conditional) copula is found, we invert the conditional copula to obtain the conditional quantiles. Dependence between returns of two financial markets is modeled using a parametric copula. Different copula functions are compared to test for Granger-causality in distribution and in quantiles. We find significant Granger-causality in the different quantiles of the conditional distributions between foreign stock markets and the US stock market. Granger-causality from foreign stock markets to the US stock market is more significant from UK than from Japan, while causality from the US stock market to UK and Japan stock markets is almost equally significant.     

Relationship between gold and stock markets during the global financial crisis: Evidence from nonlinear causality tests

This paper investigates the nonlinear dynamic co-movements between gold returns, stock market returns and stock market volatility during the recent global financial crisis for the UK (FTSE 100), the US (S&P 500) and Japan (Nikkei 225). Initially, the bivariate dynamic relationships between i) gold returns and stock market returns and ii) gold returns and stock market volatility are tested; both of these relationships are further investigated in the multivariate nonlinear settings by including changes in the three-month LIBOR rates. In this paper correlation integrals based on the bivariate model show significant evidence of nonlinear feedback effect among the variables during the financial crisis period for all the countries understudy. Very limited evidence of significant feedback is found during the pre-crisis period. Results from the multivariate tests including changes in the LIBOR rates provide results similar to the bivariate results. These results imply that gold may not perform well as a safe haven during the financial crisis period due to the bidirectional interdependence between gold returns and, stock returns as well as stock market volatility. However, gold may be used as a hedge against stock market returns and volatility in stable financial conditions.     

Foreign Investment in Emerging Markets: International Diversification or Familiarity Bias?

This study empirically tests whether foreign investors take advantage of international diversification when investing in emerging Asian markets. Using the 2007–2008 financial crisis as identification, we find that firms with higher foreign ownership had better stock returns during the financial crisis. Moreover, the diversification effect exists in five out of the eight emerging markets and is stronger in markets with a lower dynamic conditional correlation with the global market index. We also find that foreign investors prefer firms with a lower international sales ratio. In conclusion, the evidence consistently suggests that foreign investors take advantage of diversification effects.     

Volatility Spillovers and Contagion During the Asian Crisis: Evidence from Six Southeast Asian Stock Markets

Using a multivariate generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH-M) model, we investigate volatility spillovers in six Southeast Asian stock markets around the time of the 1997 Asian crisis. We focus on interactions with the U.S. market as a world financial market, and with the Japanese market as a regional financial market. We also use bivariate GARCH-M models to examine the behavior of individual markets and their interactions with other markets in the region. All models lend support to the idea of the "Asian contagion," which started in Thailand and rapidly spread to other markets.     

Unveiling investor-induced channels of financial contagion in the 2008 financial crisis using copulas

Understanding how financial crises spread is important for policy-makers and regulators in order to take adequate measures to prevent or contain the spread of these crises. This paper will test whether there was contagion of the subprime financial crisis to the European stock markets of the NYSE Euronext group (Belgium, France, the Netherlands and Portugal) and, if evidence of contagion is found, it will determine the investor-induced channels through which the crisis propagated. We will use copula models for this purpose. After assessing whether there is evidence of financial contagion in the stock markets, we will examine whether the ‘wealth constraints’ transmission mechanism prevails over the ‘portfolio rebalancing’ channel. An additional test looks at the interaction between stock and bond markets during the crisis and allows us to determine if the transmission occurred due to the ‘cross market rebalancing’ channel or the ‘flying to quality’ phenomenon. The tests suggest that (i) financial contagion is present in all analyzed stock markets, (ii) a ‘portfolio rebalancing’ channel is the most important crisis transmission mechanism, (iii) and the ‘flight-to-quality’ phenomenon is also present in all analyzed stock markets.     

The spillover effects of the sub-prime mortgage crisis and optimum asset allocation in the BRICV stock markets

In the aftermath of the sub-prime mortgage crisis, we set out to investigate the spillover effects of returns and volatility in the US stock market on the stock markets of Brazil, Russia, India, China and Vietnam (BRICVs). The results of our application of the ARJI (autoregressive conditional jump intensity) model reveal that the greatest contagious effects of returns and volatility from the US market before the crisis were felt by Russia; however, following the crisis, the most intense spillover effects are found to be on Vietnam. While India, the most efficient of these markets, demonstrates the lowest total long-run risk, an inverse situation is discernible for both China and Brazil. Our results therefore suggest that in the design of their asset allocation strategies, investors with risk aversion should consider investing greater proportions of their funds in India, while being conservative in both Brazil and China to avoid inefficient and risky investment.     

Are short sellers positive feedback traders? Evidence from the global financial crisis

Short sellers are routinely blamed for destabilizing stock markets by exacerbating deviations from fundamental values. In response, regulators periodically impose short sale constraints aimed at preventing excessive stock market declines. One explanation is that policy makers regard short sellers as behaving like positive feedback traders. Relying on the theoretical model put forward by Sentana and Wadhwani (1992), which stresses the conditional nature of returns’ persistence, bans on selected financial stocks in six countries during the 2008/2009 global financial crisis are examined. These provide us with a setting to analyze the impact of short sale restrictions on feedback trading. Our findings suggest that, in the majority of markets examined, restrictions of this kind amplify positive feedback trading during periods of high volatility and, hence, contribute to stock market downturns. On balance then, short selling bans do not contribute to enhancing financial stability.     

Time-varying stock returns and labor income risks in the US and UK

I propose and estimate conditional asset pricing models where the risk premiums of the markets are related to the conditional covariance of the markets with labor income growth within and across countries and the volatility of the markets are related to the shocks and interactions of stock returns and labor income growth. I document that the risk premiums for the US and UK stock markets are more related to the conditional covariance of returns with the labor income growth within countries than across countries. I also find significant interactions of volatilities between stock returns and labor income within countries but not across countries. The results are consistent with the hypothesis that prices of domestic stocks are determined to a greater extent by stochastic discount factors of domestic investors than foreign investors and vice versa.     

Interdependence and Volatility Spillovers Under Market Liberalization: The Case of Istanbul Stock Exchange

This paper analyzes stock returns and volatility relations between the Istanbul Stock Exchange (ISE) and the global market as represented by stock markets in the US, the UK, Japan and Germany. Results from monthly data and multivariate cointegration tests suggest that the ISE became significantly integrated in the global market only in the period following market liberalization in late 1989. We also find evidence based on GARCH estimations that capital liberalization actually mitigated, rather than intensified, volatility in the ISE. Our results further suggest that the Asian crisis in mid‐1997 and the consequent Russian economic meltdown in mid‐1998 are partly responsible for the recent excessive volatility in the Turkish market. The results also identify the US and the UK markets as dominate sources of volatility spillovers for the ISE, even in the period following the Asian‐Russian crises. Consequently, it appears that the two matured markets of the US and the UK shoulder significant responsibility for the stability and financial health of smaller emerging markets like the ISE.