The quantity theory in New England, 1703-1749: new data to analyze an old question

The finding of Robert West that the classical quantity theory of money clearly holds for New England (at variance with results for the rest of Colonial America) is revisited, with care taken to guard against spurious data and spurious regression. Thus alternative measures of price and money and modern econometric techniques are employed. The quantity theory of Milton Friedman is shown to be complementary to classical quantity theory, and both theories are tested via modern time-series analysis. The West data lead to mixed results; but the new data and technique support both quantity theories.     

Pump Prices and Oil Prices: A Tale of Two Directions

It has been argued that retail gasoline prices adjust more quickly to crude oil price increases than to price decreases. We investigate this issue using the statewide data on weekly retail gasoline prices in the United States between January 2000 and June 2007. Our analysis does not confirm the prediction that gasoline prices adjust more quickly to price increases in crude oil prices. On the contrary, the results suggest that in some geographic areas gasoline prices could change faster when crude oil prices decrease. These findings suggest that a national or a one size fits all energy policy for the United States may be misguided.

Exchange Rate Pass-Through to Consumer Prices: The Increasing Role of Energy Prices

Open Economies Review - A number of researchers have found that the rate of exchange rate pass-through (ERPT) to domestic prices has declined substantially over the last few decades. We revisit...     

论黑龙江省老工业基地调整改造的融资问题

支持东北等老工业基地加快调整、改造,同实施西部大开发战略和加快东部地区发展一起,构成了中国现代化建设的重大战略布局.老工业基地的调整改造涉及到经济结构调整、技术改造、企业重组等方方面面的问题,而其前提无疑是需要巨额的资金.     

Prices and industrial transformation

Abstract

One of the contradictions of neo-classical economic theory concerns its view of relative prices. On the one hand it is relative prices that determine the market's equilibrium position and decide what transactions will take place. On the other hand, the pattern of relative prices, or expressed differently the price structure, has been regarded as more or less immutable. Variations in relative prices have been considered short-term phenomena, after which, in time, an adaptation has taken place which has restored the initial situation. The same line of thought was also held by Wesley Mitchell, who in the dispersion of relative prices found a reflection of business cycles, but he maintained that the price system is “yet stable in the essential balance of its interrelations”.¹ F.C. Mills cited Mitchell as his authority in his comprehensive work The Behavior of Prices, and although he felt compelled to raise objections to the inference that relative prices varied rhythmically with the business cycle, he still considered that there was a limit to change in relative prices, i.e. the price structure had a fundamental stability.²     

阿辉:从炒房盛世到找不着北

大河没水小河干.房地产市场一刮风,中介公司立刻就患上重感冒.对于地产经纪人而言,这是他们经历的有史以来最冷的一个夏天     

也说消费价格指数与房价

有分析人士认为，目前居民消费价格指数CPI的上涨幅度被低估，其原因是未将商品住宅价格指数纳入统计范围。本文认为，根据国际惯例编制的CPI已考虑了居民的居住消费，不将商品住宅价格指数纳入，是因其具有投资性质和金融资产性质；也可避免CPI因商品住宅价格的波动而出现的大幅波动，有利于客观分析和判断宏观经济的主要指标。     

广告定价策略与价格离中现象

文章运用博弈论方法,推导广告促销条件下厂商的均衡定价策略和广告发布策略。本文所建立的定价模型适用于保险企业、利用电视购物频道推销产品的厂商以及通过互联网发布价格和产品信息的零售商。     

信贷和资产价格之我见

信贷高速增长的功与过2008年中国信贷增量是4．6万亿,而2009年前10个月放贷已经达到9万亿左右,2009年前10个月的信贷额已经是2008年全年的1倍。信贷如此迅猛增长对中国经济的各个方面都带了许多影响。然而到现在为止,从大量媒体中看到的材料、各种分析讨论,对其批评者居多。信贷增长带来很多问题,比如说资产价格的泡沫、政府融资平台的风险、产能过剩等。     

Exchange Rates and Prices under Processing Trade: A Macroeconomic Analysis

In an economy dominated by labor-intensive processing trade, such as China, real exchange rate appreciation can possibly increase rather than decrease net exports. As the import content of processed exports (a proxy for dependence on processing trade) increases in its continuum, the stable equilibrium for the exchange rate and price level eventually yields to a saddle-point equilibrium. Unless the initial inflation (or deflation) rate is uniquely moderate at a given exchange rate, either the depreciation-inflation spiral or the appreciation-deflation spiral can dominate. Monetary and fiscal policies can help a processing-trade dependent country in structural transition from excessive engagement in processing trade (the saddle-point equilibrium) to a more sustainable and balanced trade structure.     

The Euro and Psychological Prices: Simulations of the Worst-Case Scenario

Currently, nearly 90% of all prices of consumer goods and services in the Netherlands are psychological, conveniently broken or round prices. After converting these 'attractive' guilder prices into euro using the official conversion rate, the resulting euro prices are generally not attractive. The Dutch public is concerned that retailers will not round their euro prices symmetrically upwards and downwards to the next attractive pricing point but only upwards. This paper investigates the question 'What would be the effect on the consumer price index (CPI) if prices were systematically rounded upwards.' Firstly, the attractive pricing points are determined empirically using the actual price sample underlying the Dutch CPI. Secondly, different rounding scenarios are investigated and the likelihood of the worst-case scenario is discussed. It turns out that the euro introduction may cause an increase of the CPI due to psychological price setting by 0.7% at most. However, the competition in the retail sector makes it unlikely that this scenario materialises.     

Macroeconomic Variables and Stock Prices in Malaysia: An Empirical Analysis

The article investigates the dynamic interactions between seven macroeconomic variables and the stock prices for an emerging market, Malaysia, using cointegration and Granger causality tests. The results strongly suggest informational inefficiency in the Malaysian market. The bivariate analysis suggests cointegration between the stock prices and three macroeconomic variables – consumer prices, credit aggregates and official reserves. From bivariate error-correction models, we note the reactions of the stock prices to deviations from the long run equilibrium. These results are further strengthened when we extend the analysis to multivariate settings. We also note some evidence that the stock prices are Granger-caused by changes in the official reserves and exchange rates in the short run.