我国农产品供求均衡分析:1982-2006——一个数理分析框架及实证检验

文章针对我国目前主要农产品出现的供需“缺口”特殊现象,选取1982—2006年的样本数据进行实证检验,探求农产品需求、供给的影响因素及其之间的数量关系,并从需求与供给视角分析价格变化方向和影响程度,在此基础上建立农产品价格动态波动的理论模型。实证表明：我国主要农产品,如粮食、猪肉与棉花等的供给存在“二元”特征,导致农产品供给反应具有粘滞性;需求与价格关系因产品种类而异;农产品供给与需求对价格的影响符合经济规律。通过实证与理论研究,最后提出维持农产品供求均衡的政策建议。     

中国粮食市场的波动与政府干预

该文考察政府的粮食定购和价格控制对稳定中国粮食生产的影响.文章使用了计量和模拟方法对这一影响进行了研究.结果表明,由于政府不能灵活地对需求和供给变动作出及时的反应,粮食供给的短缺或过剩不能及时纠正,因而会随时间而积累;当达到一个显著的数量时,会导致政府对定购价格的重大调整,因此又可能进一步导致粮食生产的波动.因此,政府干预的结果是放大而不是缩小了市场波动.     

城市化对粮食、蔬菜价格的影响——以杭州为例

城市化进程会影响粮食、蔬菜生产所必需的土地、劳动力和资本等生产要素的供给,进而影响了两者的供给和价格.文章以杭州为例,利用似不相关回归模型分析了城市化对粮食、蔬菜价格的影响,发现城市化是两种价格上涨的主要影响因素之一,但城市化对粮食和蔬菜价格的影响机制不同.     

我国农产品价格波动的影响因素分析

本文在分析我国农产品价格波动现状的基础上,接着从供给、需求、国际及其他因素等层面分析农产品价格波动的影响因素,建立误差修正模型进行实证分析.结果发现:农产品生产价格与粮食产量、农产品生产成本、人口自然增长率、粮食进出口量、货币供给量之间存在长期稳定关系,且与粮食产量、人口自然增长率之间呈负相关关系,与农产品生产成本、粮食进出口量、货币供给量之间呈正相关关系.     

基于ADL与ECM模型的出口供给弹性分析

以中国2005年7月到2010年6月间的数据为依托,基于动态模型实证对中国出口供给是否具有无限价格弹性进行研究后发现:中国出口供给的长期价格弹性为1.85;出口价格、产出能力、国内价格水平以及生产成本对出口供给的影响均存在滞后效应,其中产出能力对出口供给的影响最大。     

供给价格析

“供给价格”是新古典经济学的重要基础概念,但它是否非常科学和完善呢？本文拟对其存在的问题进行理论与实证分析。一、供给价格来自马歇尔的循环定义马歇尔在其代表作《经济学原理》一书中,通过对厂商生产成本的循环重复定义,提出了“供给价格”概念。他假定,当商品生产完全以工人（劳动）努力为转移时,“引起任何一定数量某种商品所必要的努力而需要的价格,可以叫做那一定数量（当然指的是一定单位时间内的数量）的供给价格”。他把直接或问按用于生产商品的所有“劳作和牺牲加在一起,叫做商品生产的实际成本．对这些劳作和牺牲所…     

蔬菜需求供给弹性的灰色系统分析

文章运用灰色系统理论的预测原理,基于北京蔬菜的需求与供给历史数据预测北京蔬菜未来一段时间的需求与供给弹性,借以考察北京蔬菜在未来时段的供求影响关系。研究结果表明,蔬菜价格的上升不会影响蔬菜需求量,并且供给价格对供给数量的影响存在滞后性,给出的灰色预测模型具有较高的精确度和可信度。因此,在制定蔬菜调控政策过程中应加强与价格和供求数量信息的收集、分析及预测相关的蔬菜软环境的建设。     

均衡价格--动态市场价格的形成与变化趋势

本介绍了用来模拟动态市场价格的微分方程模型，此模型反映了价格对需求与供给的影响，而需求与供给反过来又影响价格确定的过程，并说明了均衡价格是市场价格的最终变化趋势，并用蛛网理论对产量和价格的波动进行了分析。     

我国粮食供求价格弹性实证分析

粮食安全的供求一直被认为是缺乏弹性的。但是随着粮食功能的多样化及对粮食供求关系的影响,需要重新认识粮食供求的弹性。论文在介绍价格弹性理论的基础上,收集到1978～2007年的时间序列数据,进行了历年粮食供求弹性的实证分析,得出我国粮食供求价格弹性的特点,并据此提出一些对策性建议。     

粮食期货价格和现货价格关系的实证分析研究

主要通过设立VAR模型对粮食期货价格和现货价格关系进行实证分析,数据主要采用郑州商品交易所公布的早籼稻的收盘价和中储粮公布的相关收购价格。通过对设立VAR模型的回归结果进行检验,得出粮食期货价格引导现货价格的结论。     

Between a cap and a higher price: Modelling the price of dairy quotas under price ceiling legislation

This paper considers various policy alternatives to price ceiling legislation in the market for production quotas in the dairy farming sector in Quebec. I develop a model of farmers’ demand for quotas and estimate a structural parameter that is required for the counterfactual experiments. Using my econometric results and the modelled equilibrium price, I estimate the price of dairy quotas over the period 1993–2011. The counterfactual experiments indicate that the price of quotas could be reduced to the ceiling price through a 4.16% expansion of the aggregate supply of quotas, or through moderate trade liberalization of Canadian dairy products.     

Quotas and the structure of consumer demand

In the direct utility function, quantities axe exogenous, while prices and total expenditure are endogenous. Consequently, this utility function is appropriate for analyzing the impact on prices and total expenditure from an exogenous change in the quantity of a commodity. Such an exogenous change in quantity could occur when quotas change. The direct translog utility function is estimated for a four commodity breakdown of U.S. expenditure. Estimates of quantity elasticities of price and expenditure indicate that domestically produced non-durables are necessities. As a result, the imposition of quotas on these goods will be particularly deleterious to lower income consumers.     

The multiple unit auction with variable supply

Summary. The theory of multiple unit auctions traditionally assumes that the offered quantity is fixed. I argue that this assumption is not appropriate for many applications because the seller may be able and willing to adjust the supply as a function of the bidding. In this paper I address this shortcoming by analyzing a multi-unit auction game between a monopolistic seller who can produce arbitrary quantities at constant unit cost, and oligopolistic bidders. I establish the existence of a subgame-perfect equilibrium for price discriminating and for uniform price auctions. I also show that bidders have an incentive to misreport their true demand in both auction formats, but they do that in different ways and for different reasons. Furthermore, both auction formats are inefficient, but there is no unambiguous ordering among them. Finally, the more competitive the bidders are, the more likely the seller is to prefer uniform pricing over price discrimination, yet increased competition among bidders may or may not enhance efficiency. Received: June 18, 1998; revised version: January 13, 1999     

The supply of non‐renewable resources

There exists no formal treatment of non‐renewable resource (NRR) supply, systematically deriving quantity as function of price. We establish instantaneous restricted (fixed reserves) and unrestricted NRR supply functions. The supply of a NRR at any date and location depends not only on the local contemporary price of the resource but also on prices at all other dates and locations. Besides the usual law of supply, which characterizes the own‐price effect, cross‐price effects have their own law. They can be decomposed into a substitution effect and a stock compensation effect. We show that the substitution effect always dominates: a price increase at some point in space and time causes NRR supply to decrease at all other points. Our new—although orthodox—setting takes into account not only NRR supply limitations but also the heterogeneity of NRR deposits, and the endogeneity of their development and opening. Our analysis extends to NRRs the partial‐equilibrium analysis of demand and supply policies. Thereby, it provides a generalization of results about policy‐induced changes on NRR markets.     

Is there Causal Relationship between Money Supply Growth and Inflation in China? Evidence from Quantity Theory of Money

This study examines the causal relationship between Chinese money supply growth and inflation, using the bootstrap Granger full‐sample causality test and sub‐sample rolling‐window estimation test to determine whether such a relationship in China supports the quantity theory of money. The result indicates that there is a unidirectional relationship from inflation to money supply growth. However, considering structural changes in two series, we find that short‐run relationships using full‐sample data are unstable, which suggests that full‐sample causality tests cannot be relied upon. Then, we use a time‐varying rolling‐window approach to revisit the dynamic causal relationship, and the results show that money supply growth has both positive and negative impacts on inflation in several sub‐periods, and in turn, inflation has the same effects on money supply growth for China. These findings are basically consistent with the modern quantity theory of money from the perspective of money supply and price level. When money supply growth does not outweigh output growth, inflation should not be curbed only by decreasing money supply. It notes that a stable money supply growth is critical to price level stability and economic development in China.     

Tilting the supply schedule to enhance competition in uniform-price auctions

Uniform-price auctions of a divisible good in fixed supply admit underpricing equilibria, where bidders submit high inframarginal bids to prevent competition on prices. The seller can obstruct this behavior by tilting her supply schedule and making the amount of divisible good on offer change endogenously with its (uniform) price. Precommitting to an increasing supply curve is a strategic instrument to reward aggressive bidding and enhance expected revenue. A fixed supply may not be optimal even when accounting for the cost to the seller of issuing a quantity different from her target supply.     

EXPORT SUBSIDIES VERSUS EXPORT QUOTAS WITH INCOMPLETELY INFORMED POLICY MAKERS*

This paper analyses export subsidies (price incentives) and export quotas (quantity controls) in the Brander‐Spencer (1985) model when policy makers have limited information on demand and cost structures. We examine necessary or sufficient information for policy makers to determine welfare‐enhancing policies. It is crucial that they know the elasticity value of the slope of the inverse demand curve and the market share. It is also shown that for policy makers, export quotas are superior to export subsidies under certain conditions.     

The econometrics of markets with quantity controls

This paper presents econometric methods for single markets with quantity controls or quotas. A theory of quotas based on disequilibrium/bargaining nations is outlined. Maximum likelihood methods are described for these theories. The methods are applied to the Australian tobacco-leaf market. It is argued that cigarette manufacturers gain slightly more from bargaining proces than tobacco-growers.     

A post‐Keynesian model of output,employment and monetary demand

This paper presents a simple model based on three broad Post‐Keynesian hypotheses: (1) the economic process develops over time; (2) money is endogenous; and (3) producers are price setters. To make the analysis easier we also assume (4) that firms are vertically integrated. Producers assess the expected demand and ask banks for credit in order to start production; banks create credit at the request of producers to finance the wage bill; workers buy goods sold by firms; firms must repay banks the amount borrowed plus interest and earn a target rate of profit. Since firms have created only as much purchasing power as they have advanced to workers in the form of the wage fund, equilibrium requires that there is an amount of autonomous monetary demand equal to profits and interest. Furthermore, in order to make the value of supply equal to the value of effective demand, firms will employ the number of workers necessary to create the purchasing power which, when added to the anticipated autonomous demand, enables all costs to be covered and the planned rate of profits to be attained.     

The Le Châtelier Principle and the Demand for Imports in the Short Run and the Medium Run: Australia, 1959–60–1978–79*

This paper examines the role of prices and factor endowments in the determination of Australian imports. We consider two factors, labour and capital. The supply of capital is assumed fixed, labour is assumed fixed in the short run. and variable in the medium run, Direct as well as indirect estimates of short-run and medium-run import price and quantity elasticities are derived. Allowance is made for technological change, and various separability hypotheses are tested. As predicted by the Le Châtelier Principle. the own price elasticity of imports is larger in the medium run than in the short run .