A Middle East Free Trade Area: Economic Interdependence and Peace Considered

The Bush administration hopes that through a Middle East Free Trade Area (MEFTA), peace and stability can be achieved through intra‐regional economic cooperation. The current impediments to intra‐regional economic cooperation, however, will make a MEFTA a hub‐and‐spoke trade relationship between the United States and the Middle East. Neoliberal arguments for the interrelation of peace and economic interdependence in the context of the Middle East are then considered.     

Peace in the Middle East: What does if really mean for Israeli business?

The growing authenticity of the Middle East peace process is as much a product of the realities of the international business community as the efforts by the region's diplomats. The disintegration of the former Soviet Union and the results of the Gulf War have hastened the acceptance of Israel as a world class trading partner. Any meaningful peace should improve the region's living standards, but Israel is likely to be the major beneficiary in the short run. True stability in the region remains the challenge of business.     

Peace and Economic Interdependence in the Middle East

Can economic interdependence pacify the Middle East? While Middle Eastern countries have, for the most part, avoided the global trend of regionalism, this study provides empirical evidence that Middle Eastern countries with significant trade ties to other countries in the region do cooperate more and fight less. In addition to confirming the liberal notion of peace through trade, this study shows that several conditions outlined by the selectorate theory of political survival must be fulfilled if economic interdependence in the Middle East is to be achieved. A case study outlining Israeli and Turkish economic cooperation is used to show the selectorate model's regional compatibility. The regional applicability of the selectorate theory leads us to conclude that politically liberal countries are more likely to maintain economic relations with one another than with autocratic ones. Since liberal countries will be more economically interdependent with one another they will also be more peaceful towards one another. Ultimately, then, this study concludes that political liberalisation is one way of enhancing regional economic interdependence and consequently the prospects for a more peaceful Middle East.     

The Interplay of Communication and Decisions in Electronic Negotiations: Communicative Decisions or Decisive Communication?

Whilst much research has been conducted on decision support for electronic negotiations and some research has been done on communication support in this area, there is a lack of research on the interplay between these two elements of negotiations. The questions whether both are equally important, whether one effects the other, or whether they show counter-effects are important both for negotiation training (i.e. what should be the focus for becoming a good negotiator) and for system research (i.e. which system support elements need to be developed). The current paper presents results of a controlled laboratory experiment with negotiators that were provided with decision support and communication support and negotiators that had only communication support available. The impact of decision support on the communication process and on outcome dimensions as well as the impact of communication behaviour on the negotiation process and the qualitative dimensions of the outcome will be discussed.     

Open Skies over the Middle East

The dynamism of air traffic markets in the Middle East obscures the persistence of restrictions on international competition. But how important are such restrictions for passenger traffic? This paper uses detailed data on worldwide passenger aviation to estimate the effect of air transport policy on international air traffic. The policy variable is a quantitative measure of the commitments under international agreements. The paper analyses, for the first time, not only bilateral agreements, but also plurilateral agreements such as the one among Arab states. The analysis finds that more liberal policy is associated with greater passenger traffic between countries. Higher traffic levels appear to be driven by larger numbers of city‐pairs being served, as well as by more passengers travelling along given routes. To demonstrate the quantitative implication of the estimates, two liberalisation scenarios in the Middle East are evaluated. Deepening the plurilateral agreement among Arab states would lead to a 30 per cent increase in intraregional passenger traffic. Widening the agreement to include Turkey would generate significantly larger gains because current policy vis‐à‐vis Turkey is much more restrictive.     

The Emergence of Individual Knowledge in a Group Setting: Mitigating Cognitive Fallacies

Research in psychology has found that subjects regularly exhibit a conjunction fallacy in probability judgments. Additional research has led to the finding of other fallacies in probability judgment, including disjunction and conditional fallacies. Such analyses of judgments are critical because of the substantial amount of probability judgment done in accounting, business and organizational settings. However, most previous research has been conducted in the environment of a single decision maker. Since business and other organizational environments also employ groups, it is important to determine the impact of groups on such cognitive fallacies. This paper finds that groups substantially mitigate the impact of probability judgment fallacies among the sample of subjects investigated. The key finding of this paper is the analysis of the apparent manner in which groups make such decisions. A statistical analysis, based on a binomial distribution, suggests that groups investigated here did not use consensus. Instead, if any one member of the group has correct knowledge about the probability relationships, then the group uses that knowledge and does not exhibit fallacy in probability judgment. Having a computational model of the group decision making process provides a basis for developing computational models that can be used to simulate “mirror worlds” of reality or model decision making in real world settings.     

Conflict Evolution: Tracking the Middle East Conflict with Drama Theory

The situation in the Middle East has developed through an episodic process in which the protagonists have periodically changed the ‘game’ that they are playing by inventing new options, seeking to eliminate the options available to others, or by raising or eliminating doubts in the minds of others about their intentions. Such conflict evolution is readily captured by the framework of drama theory which goes some way to explaining the pressures motivating such actions. This paper traces the recent development of relations between the Israelis and the Palestinians through a succession of drama theoretic models. The importance of taking note of interactions at several levels is highlighted: stalemate at one level may be dislodged by actions taken in others. It is concluded that any resolution of the confrontations in the Middle East is likely to require the active involvement of the international community but may be destabilised by pressure from internal factions within the key parties.     

The internationalization of an Arab bank: The case of Ahli United Bank of Bahrain

Ahli United Bank of Bahrain (AUB) has “leapfrogged” over early stages of internationalization by means of multiple rapid acquisitions of competitors. Use of this high‐cost, high‐risk strategy is well known among companies with the resources to invest in international expansion, but its application has not yet been studied in depth among companies based in the Middle East. This theory‐driven case study examines the growth record of AUB, its place in the regional banking industry in the Gulf, and its successful internationalization as an Arab bank. The article concludes with a detailed assessment of managerial and theoretical implications arising from the case study, and proposes further research to understand better the process of internationalization by companies expanding from a base in the Middle East. © 2011 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

Effects of Materiality, Risk, and Ethical Perceptions on Fraudulent Reporting by Financial Executives

This paper examines fraudulent financial reporting within the context of Jones' (1991) ethical decision making model. It was hypothesized that quantitative materiality would influence judgments of the ethical acceptability of fraud, and that both materiality and financial risk would affect the likelihood of committing fraud. The results, based on a study of CPAs employed as senior executives, provide partial support for the hypotheses. Contrary to expectations, quantitative materiality did not influence ethical judgments. ANCOVA results based on participants' estimates of the likelihood that a "typical CPA" would manipulate reported results indicated that both materiality and risk significantly influenced the likelihood of fraud, but that the perceived morality of the action did not. In contrast, results based on participants' self-reported behavior indicated that materiality and the perceived morality of the action would influence the likelihood of fraud, but that financial risk would not. Regardless of the measure used for the likelihood of fraud, the results indicate that financial executives continue to be influenced by quantitative materiality when misstatements are clearly material on qualitative grounds.     

Impact of a Middle East Oil Export Disruption

Two ways that oil exports from the Middle East can be disrupted in the current political climate are sanctions on Iran and Iran blockading the Strait of Hormuz. In considering the impact that these actions might have on the United States and other oil importers, it is important to consider such factors as characteristics of the blocked oil, how other exporters might react, and the possible release by importers of strategic reserves. The paper also provides some historical perspective on how past supply disruptions were resolved.     

Group Aggregation Techniques for Analytic Hierarchy Process and Analytic Network Process: A Comparative Analysis

The analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and the analytic network process are important multiple criteria decision making methods for supporting complex, discrete strategic management decision problems. In order to exploit a broader information basis as well as to achieve a sufficient degree of objectivity strategic decision settings are mostly embedded into a multi-personal decision context to which different individuals with expert status contribute. Owing to the fact that there is a vast number of different methods and further internal possibilities (derivation of means) to aggregate the individual expert preferences to a group consensus, the first aim of this paper is to present a comprehensive literature review on various aggregation possibilities. The second aim is the conduction of a transparent comparative analysis of selected approaches and methods (geometric/arithmetic aggregation of individual judgments, geometric/arithmetic aggregation of individual priorities, geometric/arithmetic loss function approach and Group AHP model). Therefore, we use four different evaluation scenarios and point out under which assumptions which solution is suitable. Starting from these results, the aggregation techniques adequate to a specific decision context are provided.     

The Effect of Organizational Culture and Ethical Orientation on Accountants' Ethical Judgments

This paper examines the relationship between organizational ethical culture in two large international CPA firms, auditors' personal values and the ethical orientation that those values dictate, and judgments in ethical dilemmas typical of those that accountants face. Using an experimental task consisting of multiple judgments designed to vary in "moral intensity" (Jones, 1991), and unique as well as tried-and-true approaches to variable measurements, this study examined the judgments of more than three hundred participants in our study. ANCOVA and path analysis results indicate that: (1) Ethical judgments in situations of high moral intensity are affected by personal values and by environmental variables, such as the professional code of conduct (direct and indirect effects) and previous ethics instruction (direct effect only). (2) Corporate ethical culture, and a relatively strong firm rules-orientation, affect auditors' idealism but not relativism, and therefore indirectly affect ethical judgments. Jones' (1991) moral intensity argument is supported: differences in the characteristics of specific judgment tasks apparently result in different decision processes.     

Competitive judgments in a business simulation: A comparison between American and Chinese business students

A complex total business enterprise computer simulation was used as the setting for a study of judgments by Chinese and American business school students. The subjects were asked to make a series of decisions and give judgments about expected levels of competition for a new market opportunity in the simulation world. Decisions were compared across the groups based on the decision structure and content. The results confirm previous research as the American participants generated significantly more responses overall, and especially judgment-consistent responses than the Chinese participants. Analysis of the content of the decision representations found that the relative proportion of singular to distributional information in the responses was similar for both American and Chinese individuals when making decisions about their own teams, but the Chinese participants focused more heavily on distributional information when making judgments about the behavior of others. This implies that American and Chinese individuals focus on different aspects of similar information and this may influence subsequent judgments. © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.     

An Integrated Group Decision-Making Method Dealing with Fuzzy Preferences for Alternatives and Individual Judgments for Selection Criteria

Organizations often require decisions to be made by a group, and decision makers often have fuzzy preferences for alternatives and individual judgments when attempting to reach an optimal solution. In order to deal with the fuzziness of preference of decision makers, this paper proposes an integrated fuzzy group decision-making method. This method allows group members to express fuzzy preferences for alternatives and individual judgments for solution selection criteria. It also allowed for the weighting of group members. The method then aggregates these elements into a compromise group decision which is the most acceptable for the group as a whole. This method has been implemented and tested. An example is presented to illustrate the method.     

Women, Management and Globalization in the Middle East

This paper provides new theoretical insights into the interconnections and relationships between women, management and globalization in the Middle East (ME). The discussion is positioned within broader globalization debates about women’s social status in ME economies. Based on case study evidence and the UN datasets, the article critiques social, cultural and economic reasons for women’s limited advancement in the public sphere. These include the prevalence of the patriarchal work contract within public and private institutions, as well as cultural and ethical values which create strongly defined gender roles. The discussion examines the complexities of conceptualizing women’s equality and empowerment in Islamic states. The paper reveals that there have been significant achievements in advancing women in leadership and political roles, but that there are still institutional and cultural barriers embedded in business systems. Linking feminist, development and management theoretical strands a development framework is proposed which is sensitive to the Islamic Shar’ia encompassing government, organization and individual level strategies. It is suggested that scholars should integrate literatures from gender and management, development and Middle East studies, and in particular that critical scholars of gender and organization should consider the interrelations of the national and transnational in critiques of contemporary global capitalism to understand the complexity of women and social change in the ME.     

Towards a New Trade Policy Between the USA and Middle‐East Countries:Estimating Trade Resistance and Export Potential

At the time of the conclusion of free trade areas (FTAs) between the USA and Middle‐East and North African (MENA) countries, there is a lack of literature concerning the measurement of the current US export position with regards to these countries, and the US export potential in this area. From recent developments of gravity models, this paper derives an estimable equation which includes various trade resistance variables, notably border effects, multilateral resistance as well as specific bilateral effects. The model is tested in order to scrutinise the impact of these variables on US exports to MENA countries, as well as the US export potential in this area. To that end, a selection of panel data specifications is proposed, mainly Hausman and Taylor models as well as Arellano and Bond dynamic models. Results unambiguously indicate that as compared to the other OECD countries, the USA suffers from a substantial trade integration deficit with MENA countries. This is reflected by the strongly negative values of the US‐MENA bilateral fixed effects, as well as the high bilateral border effects. In addition, the estimated actual/potential US export ratio to these countries is only 0.76. Therefore, implementing an FTA between the USA and MENA countries may allow the former to progressively improve its export position in this area. This would also help MENA countries diversify their supplying sources.     

The Development and Use of a Regret Experience Measure to Examine the Effects of Outcome Feedback on Regret and Subsequent Choice

This research provides insight into the experience of regret and its influence on the decision maker's subsequent aversion to risk. First, a study is conducted in order to construct a reliable multi-item measure of regret and to demonstrate that different levels of outcome feedback result in different levels of regret. A second experiment tests the validity of the regret experience measure (REM) by examining whether considering the degree of regret experienced by the respondent on a prior decision better explains subsequent choices and judgments involving risk than considering the effects of outcome feedback alone. The results of the experiment indicate that 1) the REM is both a reliable and valid measure of regret and 2) decision behavior can be better understood when both outcome feedback and regret resulting from that feedback (or the lack of feedback) are considered. Finally, the implications of these results and directions for future research are discussed.     

The nature of information and overconfidence on venture capitalists' decision making

Venture capitalists (VCs) are considered experts in identifying high potential new ventures—gazelles. Thus, the VC decision process has received tremendous attention within the entrepreneurship literature. Yet, most studies on VC decision-making focus on which decision criteria are central to selecting gazelles. Although informative, the majority of these studies has neglected cognitive differences in how VCs make decisions. This is surprising considering the influence cognitive differences are likely to have on the exploitation of an opportunity as well as its influence on likely success. The current study investigates whether VCs are overconfident, as well as the factors surrounding the decision that lead to overconfidence.Overconfidence describes the tendency to overestimate the likely occurrence of a set of events. Overconfident people make probability judgments that are more extreme than they should, given the evidence and their knowledge. In the case of the new venture investment decision, overconfident VCs may overestimate the likelihood that a funded company will succeed.The results of the current study indicate that VCs are indeed overconfident (96% of the 51 participating VCs exhibited significant overconfidence) and that overconfidence negatively affects VC decision accuracy (the correlation between overconfidence and accuracy was 0.70). The level of overconfidence depended upon the amount of information, the type of information, and whether the VC strongly believes the venture will succeed or fail.As more information becomes available, people tend to believe they will make better decisions; they are making a “more informed decision.” More information ideally should enable the VCs to assess any potential pitfalls. However, additional information makes the decision more complex. Information factors may contradict and relate to other information in unexpected ways. Even if more information is available, people usually don't analyze all of it (even though they believe they do). Thus, more information creates greater confidence, but it also leads to lower decision accuracy.The type of information that is available also impacts overconfidence and decision accuracy. VCs are intuitive decision makers. When people are familiar with a decision and the structure of the information surrounding that decision, they resort to automatic information processing. On the other hand, if information surrounding the decision is structured in an unfamiliar way, people need to decipher what each piece of information means and how that impacts their overall accuracy. In the case of expert VCs, that means they must deviate from their intuitive style. It seems that forcing them outside their “comfort zone” has a negative effect on their confidence and has an even greater effect (negative) on their accuracy.There is evidence of an “availability bias” in VC decision-making; VCs rely on how well the current decision matches past successful or failed investments. VCs are overconfident in their prediction of venture success when they predict a very high level of success. VCs are also overconfident in their prediction of venture failure when they predict a very low likelihood of success. This high level of overconfidence in success predictions (or failure predictions) may encourage the VC to limit information search and fund a lower potential investment (or prematurely reject a stronger potential investment).Although overconfidence in itself does not necessarily lead to a wrong decision, the bias is likely to inhibit learning and improving the decision process. Overconfident VCs may not fully consider all relevant information, nor search for additional information to improve their decision. Moreover, the natural tendency for people to recall past successes rather than failures may mean that VCs will make the same mistakes again. VCs can take simple steps to reduce the effect of overconfidence, including counterfactual thinking (i.e., imaging scenarios where current assumptions might not hold), formally recording how past decisions were made at the time of the decision (versus trying to recall how that decision was made from memory), and using actuarial decision aids that decompose decisions into core components. Reducing overconfidence may lead to stronger decisions. It is hoped that this study illustrates the power of cognitive theories for understanding VC decision-making.     

Group Decision Making with Dispersion in the Analytic Hierarchy Process

With group judgments in the context of the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) one would hope for broad consensus among the decision makers. However, in practice this will not always be the case, and significant dispersion may exist among the judgments. Too much dispersion violates the principle of Pareto Optimality at the comparison level and/or matrix level, and if this happens, then the group may be homogenous in some comparisons and heterogeneous in others. The question then arises as to what would be an appropriate aggregation scheme when a consensus cannot be reached and the decision makers are either unwilling or unable to revise their judgments. In particular, the traditional aggregation via the geometric mean has been shown to be inappropriate in such situations. In this paper, we propose a new method for aggregating judgments when the raw geometric mean cannot be used. Our work is motivated by a supply chain problem of managing spare parts in the nuclear power generation sector and can be applied whenever the AHP is used with judgments from multiple decision makers. The method makes use of principal components analysis (PCA) to combine the judgments into one aggregated value for each pairwise comparison. We show that this approach is equivalent to using a weighted geometric mean with the weights obtained from the PCA.     

Reinforcing Cultural Identity by Appealing to Local Cultural Cues: National Identity Formation and Consumption in High-Context Cultures

Traditionally, U.S. firms have successfully used American appeal (hard-sell approach) as a unique selling proposition in Europe, Japan and in the developing world. However, the anti-American sentiments around the world due to the Iraqi and Afghan wars and recent upheavals in the Middle East and North Africa have negatively influenced consumer judgments about American-labeled global brands in international markets during the last decade. Such consumer perceptions may lead to a favorable environment for new competitors to emerge in specific markets, and these products may take significant market share away from global U.S. brands.