Simple unit root testing in generally trending data with an application to precious metal prices in Asia

This paper proposes a new unit root test that is general enough to accommodate a potentially non-linear deterministic trend function, making it one of the most general tests around. However, the main advantage lies with its simple implementation. In particular, the asymptotic critical values are shown to be “almost” independent of the deterministic trend function, and as a result the test can be implemented without the need for model-specific critical values. The new test is applied to a sample consisting of monthly prices of four precious metals for a number of Asian countries.     

The convergence process of Argentina with Australia and Canada: 1875-2000

This paper uses time series techniques to estimate the points in time when Argentina started to lose ground with Australia, Canada and the OECD. Based on my estimates Argentina started to fall behind Australia in 1899 and behind Canada in 1896, earlier than the dates maintained by previous scholars.     

20世纪90年代日本商业银行破产原因分析及启示

20世纪90年代日本许多金融机构和银行相继破产,这其中的主要原因既有汇率因素和货币政策因素,也有制度性因素和金融管理方面的因素等。当今中国经济发展中有一些迹象与泡沫经济破灭前后的日本相似:本币升值,国际热钱不断流入,股票价格暴涨暴跌等。我国要汲取日本的教训,防止金融机构和银行出现系统性危机。     

日本财政分权与经济增长

本文利用计量经济模型及其相关数据分析了日本财政分权与经济增长之间的关系。模型中引入了财政分权水平、地区收入自主水平、地区相对富裕度、国库支出金与全部财政支出的比值等因素作为重要的解释变量,通过相关系数的计算、拟合误差对比检验,来探究它们与经济增长之间的关系。研究结果表明:财政支出分权在一定程度上促进了经济的增长,而地区收入自主水平以及国库支出金占全部财政支出的比值则阻碍了经济的增长。     

90年代日美经济之比较

美国和日本是世界上的两个经济超级大国,美国的这一地位早已确立,而日本则是在二战以后才崛起的.自从日本成为世界第二经济大国以后,"日本奇迹"的光环就慢慢退去,在90年代以前两国的经济发展都没有什么特别引人注目的地方.但在进入90年代以后,两国的经济发展却都起了很大的变化,美国经济持续增长,同时其他各项经济指标也都表现良好,因而被冠以"新经济"的美誉.而日本经济则在1991年以后就陷入长期的低迷和衰退,曾经风光无限的"日本模式"被宣告失败,90年代也因此被称为是日本"失去的十年".两国相反的经济发展历程值得深思.在这世纪之交、千年之交,对比造成两国经济增长和衰退的原因,对于我国国民经济的跨世纪发展更具有重要的参考意义.     

Small business service firms and the 1990s recession in the United Kingdom: Implications for local economic development

During the 1990s recession, the UK experienced a dramatic growth in employment in information-intensive business firms. This paper explores this growth with reference to small management consultancy and market research firms. Business service firms continued to be established and to grow during the recession because of three related attributes: professional expertise, an existing reputation and a network of client contacts. These attributes are related to the theoretical work of Granovetter (1973; 1982; 1985) who argues that “weak ties” operate to connect different groups of people together. The implications of these attributes for local economic development are considered. Success for all companies at the level of the local economy will be partially dependent on efficient and effective use of available business service expertise. The three attributes make it impossible to develop successful mechanisms to encourage the formation of business service companies in areas with underdeveloped service infrastructure. Mechanisms, however, may be developed at the local level to encourage the establishment of “weak ties” between local companies and regional and national providers of business service expertise.     

日本无线通信产业90年代的迅速崛起及其原因探析

日本无线通信产业在上个世纪90年代经历了从小到大、从劣势到优势、从跟随到引领的角色换位，实现了赶超世界先进的目标。日本从政府政策、产业构造、制造能力以及技术进步等多因素出发，多方位、多角度地塑造和推动了该产业的迅速崛起。     

The effects of fiscal policy in the 1990s in Japan: A VAR analysis with event studies

This paper examines the effects of Japanese fiscal policy during the 1990s. A mixed vector autoregression (VAR)/event study approach is used for this purpose. The first empirical finding is that in the late 1990s, the negative effect of fiscal policy was larger and more persistent than the positive effect. This finding suggests that the large fiscal expansions in the late 1990s were inadequate for stimulating the macroeconomy in terms of the size and persistence of their policy effects. The second finding is that the permanent tax cuts implemented in the former part of the 1990s increased consumer durable spending significantly and persistently. This increase may reflect consumers’ incentive to spend before the increase in the consumption tax rate in April 1997.     

The Role of Monetary Policy in Japan: A Break in the 1990s?

This article documents time series evidence suggesting the case for a possible structural break in the role of Japan's monetary policy during the 1990s. It uses a simple vector autoregressive framework and offers some suggestive results: While a persistent effect of monetary policy on real output is detected over the full sample of 1975–1998 and the subsample that ends in 1993, such effect disappears with the recent subsample of the 1990s. The stability analysis also provides more specified evidence that there is a break in the reduced form dynamic system in 1995. Some interpretations are offered to intuitively support these findings. J. Japan. Int. Econ., December 2000, 14(4), pp. 366–384. Research Institute for Economics and Business Administration, Kobe University, Rokko, Nada, Kobe 657-8501, Japan Copyright 2000 Academic Press.Journal of Economic Literature Classification Numbers: E52, E32.     

振兴东北战略与吉林省对日合作的发展

日本是吉林省的重要出口市场和外资来源国,经贸往来密切。随着中国政府振兴东北老工业基地政策的实施,吉林省开发开放的步伐将进一步加快,这将为吉林省与日本在汽车、石化、农产品加工、跨国旅游以及能源工业等方面的合作创造更广阔的空间。     

2023重庆全球文化旅游推广活动走进日本、美国

<正>日本东京站当地时间5月19日,由重庆市文化和旅游发展委员会与日本东京中国文化中心、中国驻东京旅游办事处共同主办的2023重庆全球文化旅游推广活动（东京站）在日本东京中国文化中心举行。中国驻日本大使馆公使衔参赞陈诤、东京中国文化中心主任罗玉泉,日本驻重庆总领事馆原总领事、日中协会理事长濑野清水等100余名嘉宾出席活动。     

The role of savings in economic development the U.S. and Japanese experiences

This paper explores the relationship between savings and growth in the United States and in Japan within a simple Granger causality framework. For Japan, growth caused savings before World War II while after World War II savings caused growth. For the US, growth caused savings after World War II. These results suggest that the savings-growth relationship may depend upon the stage of development.     

刍议信息时代企业组织形态的演进与趋势

依据组织进化理论,建立科学的企业组织形式的标准.虚拟企业是企业未来组织形式的发展趋向,这种趋向决定了信息时代企业组织结构是"寡头主导,大、中、小共生"的竞争动态演进型组织状态.     

Technological progress and Chinese agricultural growth in the 1990s

The paper examines the factors contributing to the sharp recovery of China's agricultural production in the 1990s in contrast to the stagnation in the late 1980s, and analyzes the policy effects during this period paying special attention to the role of technological progress. Using data from 28 provinces covering the years 1991–1999, a conventional production model and an extended production model with time-effects are estimated using random-effects estimation and a growth accounting for land productivity is evaluated. The results show that technological progress plays the dominant role in the recovery, accounting for 58% of total productivity growth during the sample period, while an increase in fertilizer use is second, with about 19%. Extension of the land tenure to 30 years for farm households could be a policy encouraging adoption of new technologies and more investment. The contribution of this policy change accounts for 21% in the productivity growth in the period. Increase in mechanized farming, plastic film input and education are all factors contributing to China's agricultural growth in the 1990s.     

Hong Kong's growth synchronization with China and the US: A trend and cycle analysis

This paper investigates the synchronization of Hong Kong's economic growth with mainland China and the US. We identify trends of economic growth based on the permanent income hypothesis. Specifically, we first confirm whether real consumption in Hong Kong and mainland China satisfies the permanent income hypothesis, at least in a weak form. We then identify the permanent and transitory components of income of each economy using a simple state-space model. We use structural vector autoregression models to analyze how permanent and transitory shocks originating from mainland China and the US affect the Hong Kong economy, and how such influences evolve over time. Our main findings suggest that transitory shocks from the US remain a major driving force behind Hong Kong's business cycle fluctuations. On the other hand, permanent shocks from mainland China have a larger impact on Hong Kong's trend growth.     

Land fragmentation and farm productivity in China in the 1990s

The main objective of this study is to examine the effects of fragmentation on farm productivity in China and to discuss policy implications. Some earlier work has questioned the importance of the economic costs of land fragmentation in developing economies. It has been argued that policymakers should focus instead on reducing the root causes of fragmentation: inefficiencies in land, labour, credit, and food markets. Our results, using a more recent and larger dataset from a household survey in China, find that fragmentation does have an economic cost in China. Production functions are estimated for each of the major grain crops in the sample provinces. We also argue that to reduce the economic costs, land consolidation in China should be undertaken with less government intervention. More attention should be given to the establishment of markets for land (or land use rights) and improvements in rural credit and grain markets.     

The need for economic policy coordination between Europe,Japan, and the United States: Policy recommendations for the 1990s

Better policy coordination between Europe, Japan, and the United States is urgently needed in order to restore economic growth and to diminish mutual trade imbalances. Using the EC Compact model it is shown how coordinated fiscal policies can contribute to reaching these goals in the 1990s. For Europe, the most plausible fiscal policy option seems to be a combination of lower direct taxes, public spending cuts, and wage moderation; for Japan a more expansionary fiscal policy is feasible. For the United States, however, public spending cuts or tax increases are necessary conditions for better economic performance. In addition, for all three blocks a swap between tax reduction and wage moderation is recommended.     

日本看护保险制度的沿革及其思考

日本政府于1997年12月17日颁布了《看护保险法》,并于2000年4月1日正式实施看护保险制度。看护保险制度的诞生标志着日本传统的家庭养老方式迅速向社会化养老方式进行转变。日本看护保险制度的发展可划分为形成期、实行期、完善期3个阶段,经历了10余年的历程,看护保险在日本从萌芽逐渐走向完善。日本看护保险的发展和改革经验对中国今后建立和完善看护保险制度具有重要的参考价值。     

对日软件外包产业商业模式及竞争策略研究

日本软件市场存在着巨大的需求与合作空间,而日本软件业对海外发包一直保持着积极的态度。中国所占据的日本软件外包业务市场份额远远高于亚洲其他的发展中国家。根据对日软件外包业务的发展现状,通过分析对日软件外包产业的商业模式,得出我国应采取的竞争策略以提升我国软件外包水平。     

中日经济高速增长期的中产阶层规模差距比较分析

中日两国同是人口大国,同为政府主导型经济发展模式,同样经历过较长时间的高速经济增长而进入工业化中后期,但日本形成了中产阶层为主的社会结构;而中国到目前中产阶层只占人口总数的23%左右,远低于1975年日本工业化中后期的77%。这一现象来自于两国服务发展、教育、人口城市化、社会保障、税制结构等方面的差异。