Re-employment after Retrenchment: Evidence from the TCF Industry Study

Industry Commission inquiries into the passenger motor vehicle and textiles clothing and footwear (TCF) industries have focused attention on the employment prospects of workers who are displaced as a result of structural change. The fact that older and less skilled workers face considerable difficulty finding new employment is now widely recognised. In this paper we examine the post-retrenchment outcomes for workers retrenched from jobs in the TCF sector. The method of analysis–discrete-time event history analysis–improves on previous studies of post-retrenchment out-comes because labour market conditions are incorporated into the statistical model, redressing the over-emphasis on supply-side issues that characterise previous research. The analysis shows that local and national labour market conditions are important determinants of employment outcomes. Personal characteristics, household circumstances and ascribed skill are also important as employers use these attributes to filter potential recruits. The analysis suggests that the utility of retraining is variable, enhancing the employability of workers with the best prospects (based on their personal characteristics and skills) before taking up retraining but decreasing the employment chances of those with poorer prospects.     

A net impact analysis of active labour programmes in Hungary

This paper presents estimates of the impact on re-employment and earnings of the two most popular active labour programmes used during the economic transition in Hungary: retraining and public service employment (PSE). To adjust for non-random assignment of programme participants, net impacts were computed using matched pair samples and regression models. The evidence suggests retraining may improve the chance for reemployment, is unlikely to improve re-employment earnings, but may improve job durability. Net societal benefits could be improved by retraining relatively more males, older persons, and those with less education. PSE does not appear to provide a reliable path to a regular non-subsidized job, and may even lower re-employment earnings. PSE might best be viewed as an income transfer programme having the collateral benefit of maintaining basic work habits. The net societal impact of PSE could increase if it involved relatively more females and older persons.     

Job displacement and the transitions to re-employment and early retirement for non-employed older workers

Despite the relatively higher frequency of job displacement among older workers in Europe, little is known about its effect on the work-retirement decision. Employing individual data from the European Community Household Panel for a number of countries with differences in their institutional environments, the effect of job displacement for non-employed workers is identified separately for the transitions into re-employment and retirement. The findings suggest that in countries with relatively more generous unemployment insurance provisions for the older unemployed, which offer a pathway to early retirement, older displaced workers exhibit lower re-employment and higher retirement rates compared to the non-displaced. These results are robust to dynamic selection due to unobserved heterogeneity and to the endogeneity of displacement.     

The Incidence and Consequence of Worker Displacement in Australia

This paper analyses displacement risk and its consequences for re-employment in Australia using data from the Survey of Employment and Unemployment Patterns (SEUP). We confirm overseas evidence that older workers and those from lower skill occupations are, in general, at a greater risk of displacement. By contrast, unlike US studies, no systematic link between tenure in job and displacement risk was found. Consistent with previous Australian research ( Borland and McDonald, 2001 ) we find that males face a higher incidence of displacement than females. Decomposition of the gender difference revealed that industry effects are an important source of disparity in displacement rates. Analysis of re-employment hazards indicated that workers displaced from manufacturing faced increased periods of non-employment. Hence, it appears that there is a role for provisions to help workers in industries where the effects of structural reform have been concentrated ( Kletzer, 1998 ).     

International trade,job training,and labor reallocation

A large literature studies the impact of increased import competition on workers' outcomes, however, relatively few studies examine which policies can aid workers displaced by trade. In this article, we evaluate the impact of an industrial job training program in Brazil on workers displaced from manufacturing sectors. We find that industrial training increases the probability of re-entry into the formal labor market 1 year after displacement by about 17 percentage points and is even more effective for workers displaced from sectors exposed to high import competition. This effect is mainly associated with workers switching sectors and occupations after training.     

DOES TRADE ADJUSTMENT ASSISTANCE MAKE A DIFFERENCE?

The U.S. Trade Adjustment Assistance (TAA) program provides workers who have lost their jobs due to increased trade with income support and training, job search, and relocation benefits. This paper uses data collected by the Department of Labor on TAA beneficiaries to provide the most recent econometric evaluation of the effectiveness of the TAA program. Summary statistics suggest that the TAA program successfully targets displaced workers who have a greater difficulty finding new employment. However, using propensity score matching techniques we find that while the required training component of the program improves the employment outcomes of beneficiaries, on average the TAA program has no discernible impact on the employment outcomes of the participants. (JEL F16)     

How unemployable are displaced manufacturing workers?: An analysis of adjustment costs and supplemental adjustment assistance benefits in France

There are government programs which provide supplemental adjustment assistance benefits to displaced workers in designated industries. Appealing to the ‘gains from trade’ with income redistribution theory, this paper analyzes the link between the adjustment costs of displaced workers and their former sector of employment. These costs are measured by French data on the mean duration of joblessness of laid-off workers. Empirical evidence is found which confirms the hypothesis that workers displaced from traditional manufacturing and resource industries suffer particularly high losses stemming from unemployment. These effects may be tied to workings of internal labour markets.     

Building society mergers and the size—efficiency relationship: a comment

This study uses the 1988 CPS Displaced Workers Surveyto analyse the effect of written advance notification of plant closings and relocations on the re-employment earnings of blue-collar and, for comparison purposes, white-collar workers in the United States. The results show that written notification given less than 60 days in advance of the layoffs did not have any significant effect on the re-employment earnings of either blue-collar or white-collar workers of either gender. However, the results show that dislocated male blue-collar workers who were given advance notification of 60 days or more before their layoffs had significantly higher re-employment earnings. This result is supportive of the federal plant closing legislation mandating 60-day advance notification to dislocated workers in the United States.     

Subsidized temporary jobs: lock-in and stepping stone effects

This article evaluates the effectiveness of subsidized temporary jobs as stepping stones to regular employment. We study a French program that allows job seekers to work part-time while remaining registered with the unemployment agency. In this program, insured individuals concurrently receive part of their unemployment benefits and wage income. Using administrative data, we find that subsidized temporary jobs have both a significant lock-in effect and a significant positive post-treatment impact on the hazard rate to employment. Since individuals facing a high implicit tax rate have incentives to self-select into better part-time jobs, we also find that a higher tax rate leads to a weaker lock-in effect and a stronger post-treatment effect. Simulations suggest that the lock-in effect first dominates, but that the overall effect eventually becomes positive. They also point to ways of improving the effectiveness of the policy.     

HEALTH INSURANCE COVERAGE AND REEMPLOYMENT OUTCOMES AMONG OLDER DISPLACED WORKERS

This article investigates the relationship between health insurance coverage and employment behavior among older workers with an involuntary job loss. It finds that various sources of health insurance are available to mitigate the circumstances where employer-sponsored health insurance is terminated when older workers lose jobs involuntarily. However, older displaced workers remain less likely to be insured than comparable nondisplaced workers by 7.6 percentage points one year after the job loss. The analysis also reveals that having secure health coverage before job displacement is associated with lower probabilities of reemployment and longer postdisplacement nonemployment spells. (JEL I12 , J32 , J63 , J14 )     

Do the French pension reforms increase re-employment of older unemployed workers?

ABSTRACT

The sustainability of Social Security financing has pushed authorities to reform their policy to increase the labour market participation of older workers. While most of the studies have focused on the consequences of pension reform on retirement decisions, we analyse the effects of two French pension reforms, which increased the period of contribution and the minimum retirement age, on transitions out of unemployment and into employment with a difference-in-differences approach. We find that both retirement reforms have positive effects on the re-employment of older unemployed workers. The pension reforms are also accompanied by an increase of the transitions into inactivity. The results suggest that the reforms have delivered significant effects by reducing the unemployment of older workers.     

Re-employment probabilities over the business cycle

Using a Cox proportional hazard model that allows for a flexible time dependence in order to incorporate business cycle effects, we analyze the determinants of re-employment probabilities of young workers in the USA from 1978–1989. We find considerable changes in the chances of young workers finding jobs over the business cycle despite the fact that personal characteristics of those starting jobless spells do not vary much over time. Therefore, government programs that target specific demographic groups may change individuals’ positions within the queue of job seekers, but may only have a more limited impact on average re-employment probabilities. Living in an area with high local unemployment reduces re-employment chances as does being in a long spell of non-employment. However, the damage associated with being in a long spell seems to be reduced somewhat if a worker is unemployed in an area with high overall unemployment.

Does Occupational Training by the Trade Adjustment Assistance Program Really Help Reemployment? Success Measured as Occupation Matching

The Trade Adjustment Assistance Program provides various retraining opportunities to workers displaced due to import competition. This paper investigates whether successful skill acquisition through training—as opposed to general exposure to federal assistance—improves the post‐participation outcomes using the Trade Act Participant Report. Success in skill acquisition is indicated by a match between occupations of training and entered employment. The average matching rate for the sample is 37.53%. Trainees with a match display wage replacement rates that are 2 to 3 percentage points higher than those without one, while they display very similar post‐participation earnings that are inferior to that of non‐trainees. This generally indicates that participants with limited skill sets with lower pre‐participation earnings select into training, and successful skill acquisition offsets the negative impacts of their lack of marketable skills. Matching itself does not improve the retention at the job. However, participation in various training programs improves retention.     

Retraining for the unemployed and the quality of the job match

ABSTRACT

In Germany, retraining is an important measure in active labour market policy, providing unemployed individuals with extensive vocational training. Using administrative data, we show that retraining participants are more likely to take up jobs that require their educational degree and are more often employed in those occupations for which they have received vocational training. Moreover, retraining leads to higher earnings. As these effects may be driven by the positive impact of retraining on employment, we additionally try to isolate the direct effect by restricting our analyses to those formerly unemployed who find employment irrespective of participation in retraining.     

Retraining the Unemployed in a Model of Equilibrium Employment

An equilibrium model of search and matching is developed to analyse the effects of retraining the unemployed on the market for skilled (or semi-skilled) workers. Versions of the model with free entry of vacancies and fixed numbers of jobs are considered. The latter environment exhibits multiple equilibria. While subsidized training (and enforced participation) is justified on employment grounds, it cannot be justified on efficiency grounds. Policies that, ceteris paribus , lower unemployment, also reduce the incentive to train. When such policies are introduced to a training economy, training may cease and unemployment can rise.     

中国城市的特点与再就业

解决再就业问题现在存在着头痛医头,脚痛医脚的片面行为。国企都分布在城市,因此,解决再就业问题应从城市的特点出发,根据下岗职工的性别和年龄等实际情况,选择合适的就业流向,才能使再就业和经济发展形成良性循环     

Making the risk of job loss a way of life: Does it affect job satisfaction?

This study investigates the relationship between job satisfaction and job security in European countries. In doing so, it attempts to take into account the endogenous nature of the job security–job satisfaction relationship after controlling for the various economic and personal characteristics. The results show that workers in jobs with low likelihood of job termination derive higher utility from work compared to the workers in insecure jobs. This holds even after controlling for endogeneity by using both a conventional IV approach and a selection model. This appears to be the case for both men and women.     

中国入世对国际经济影响的量化分析

中国工业品出口引起的竞争加剧会不会导致东南亚国家非工业化 ,使它们回到作为初级产品出口国的地位 ?或者 ,制造业产业链中是否存在东南亚国家可以专业化的有利空间 ?通过G Cubed亚太模型的模拟表明 ,中国大量劳动力全面进入国际劳动分工只有在满足以下两个条件的情况下才会导致东南亚国家的非工业化 :流向东南亚国家的国外直接投资大量地转向中国 ,并且东南亚国家放任FDI流入的下降从而降低由此带来的技术扩散。如果东南亚国家能够通过其它方式很快吸收国外新技术及提高本土技术创新能力阻止技术下降 ,那么它们就能在国际制造业产业链中找到有利空间。本文的政策含义是 :东南亚国家要通过向它们的科学家和管理者加速扩散新知识以及为那些下岗工人提供合适的再培训 ,从而将人力资本的深化与广化作为首要考虑的目标。     

Labor protection laws and the drain on productivity: Evidence from India

Employment protection legislation (EPL) is designed to promote securityers by placing restrictions on firing, but it generates unintended consequences. With India as a setting, I argue that EPL shifts jobs from younger to older workers in two ways: by discouraging the hiring of unproven young workers and by preventing the firing of low‐productivity workers. The identification strategy is motivated by Rajan and Zingales (1998): I assume that EPL is more binding in those manufacturing sectors where the involuntary separation rate in other countries is high. The data show that older workers are more likely to have formal jobs, and the effect is strongest in high‐firing sectors, which indicates that EPL shifts jobs from young to old. Additionally, EPL reduces plant‐level total factor productivity, and this effect is seen only in plants which are large enough to fall within the purview of EPL, which provides a useful placebo test.     

The wage and non-wage costs of displacement in boom times: Evidence from Russia

This paper analyzes the costs of job loss over the years of a booming economy, 2003–2008, using unique data from the Russian Longitudinal Monitoring Survey. In addition to analyzing standard labor market outcomes, such as forgone earnings, employment, hours worked and wage penalties, our unique data set allows us to investigate additional non-wage costs of displacement, in particular, fringe benefits, the propensity to have an informal employment relationship or a temporary contract. We find that displaced individuals face large foregone earnings following displacement, which are heterogeneous across education and ownership type of firm from which the worker separated. There is no evidence of wage penalties for re-employed displaced workers. However, we find an increased probability of working in informal or temporary jobs if previously displaced and a reduction in the number of benefits.