An Empirical Analysis of the Impact of Promotional Discounts on Store Performance

The received wisdom, reflected in popular marketing textbooks, is that featuring deeply discounted items will generate additional store traffic for retailers that in turn will lead to increased sales and profits. However, there is surprisingly little systematic evidence about the impact of these deep discounts on aggregate store traffic, sales, and profits. In this paper, we study the effects of promotional discounts and their characteristics on various store performance metrics employing a store level dataset pooled over 55 weeks and 24 stores. Many findings of our study lend credence to the continued popularity of such promotions by retailers. We find that feature promotions build store traffic, especially when the categories being featured are high penetration, high frequency. Also, promotions of branded items are found to be more effective than promotions of unbranded items. Discounting on more items in a category leads to lower store margins suggesting that the cost of discounting a large proportion of items in a category may not be justified by the profits generated by the sale. Using the coefficients from our model estimates, various counterfactuals provide insights into strategic change in level of discounts across categories. We discuss several implications of our findings for retailers.     

The Differential Impact of Price-Related Consumer Promotions on Loyal versus Non-Loyal Users of the Brand

Abstract

Consumer goods manufacturers regularly spend millions of dollars annually on sales promotions such as couponing, rebates, sweepstakes, and other premium offers. Although the impact of advertising on consumer purchase behavior has been documented in the marketing literature, the impact of promotions on purchase behavior has received relatively little attention. The purpose of this research is to investigate the relationship between brand loyalty, purchase involvement, product experience, and their impact on the efficacy of consumer promotions. The results show that sales promotions have applications beyond their traditional role as short-term promotional tools. Managerial implications as well as suggestions for future research are discussed.     

How retailer and competitor decisions drive the long-term effectiveness of manufacturer promotions for fast moving consumer goods

While both retailer and competitor decisions contribute to long-term promotional effectiveness, their separate impact has yet to be evaluated. For 75 brands in 25 categories, the author finds that the long-term retailer pass-through of promotions is 65 percent, yielding a long-run wholesale promotional elasticity of 1.78 before competitive response. However, competitors partially match the wholesale price reduction by 15 percent, which decreases promotional elasticity by 10 percent. The range of retailer and competitor response across the analyzed cases is very wide, and is affected by category and brand characteristics. As to the former, large categories yield stronger retailer response, while concentrated categories yield stronger competitor response. As to the latter, smaller brands face a fourfold disadvantage compared to leading brands: they obtain lower retail pass-through, lower retail support, and lower benefits from competing brand's promotions, while their promotions generate higher benefits to competitors. Interestingly, the mid-1990s move from off-invoice allowances towards scan-back deals only partially improves their promotional effectiveness compared to that of leading brands.     

“One-deal-fits-all?” On Category Sales Promotion Effectiveness in Smaller versus Larger Supermarkets

Even within a store chain and format, supermarket outlets often exhibit substantial differences in selling surface. For chain managers, this raises the issue of correctly anticipating the promotion lift, and of profitably managing promotion activities, across these outlets. In this paper, we conceptualize why and how store size influences the category sales effectiveness of four promotional indicators (depth of the promotional discount, display support, feature support, and whether the promotion is quantity-based). We then estimate the net moderating effect on four product categories for 103 store outlets belonging to four chains. For each of the promotion instruments, we find the percentage sales increases to be lower in large stores. For instance, whereas a 10% point increase in feature activity enhances category sales by about 1.64% in a 700 m² store, this figure drops to only 1.03% in a 1300 m² store – a 59% reduction. This moderating effect is especially pronounced for discount depth, the relative sales lift from a typical price cut being about 78% lower in the larger-sized outlet. However, since large outlets also have larger base sales, the picture changes when we consider absolute sales effects. The net outcome is that deeper discounts or quantity-based promotions do not systematically generate larger or smaller absolute sales bumps in large stores, whereas for in-store displays and features, we obtain a clear positive (be it less than proportional) link between store size and absolute category sales lift. When it comes to margin implications, we show that large stores gain higher profit from price cuts than small outlets only as long as the retailer keeps part of the manufacturer discount to himself. Managers can use these insights to improve their promotional forecasts across outlets, as well as to tailor their mix of instruments to store selling surface.     

Two-Stage Determinants of the Organic Food Retailing Landscape: The Case of Manhattan,New York

Retail sales of organic food products have been increasing faster than any other category of food and have penetrated mainstream retail grocery outlets. The majority of the literature on organic markets explores the socioeconomic characteristics of consumers, linking these traits to the probability of buying organic food, and it suggests that access to organic food is an important but overlooked factor in such studies. More recently, research focusing on food retailer marketing strategies for organic food finds that traditional strategies such as price promotions are largely unsuccessful with increasing sales for the organic food consumer. This article focuses on the retailer decision to offer organic food for sale. We model the decision as a two-stage process, where the retailer’s first decision is whether to sell organic food, and the second decision determines how many different organic products to offer for sale. In doing so, by using data collected in stores, we assess the organic food retail landscape in Manhattan, NY. We find that the decision to offer organic food for sale depends on the neighborhood socioeconomic characteristics, and the amount of organic food offered for sale depends on the size of the store.     

Brand-Pack Size Cannibalization Arising from Temporary Price Promotions

This study investigates how price promotions for one pack-size of a brand steal sales from the other pack-sizes of the same brand. To do so, the study examines twelve grocery product categories (seven US, three UK, two Australian). The analysis finds heavy cross-pack cannibalization. On average, 22 percent of the sales uplift for a promoted brand-pack size comes from other pack sizes of the same brand. Cross-pack cannibalization most typically occurs in the week of the promotion, but also transfers future week's sales away from the non-promoted pack size in 31 percent of cases. The study finds higher cannibalization is associated with packs that sell for a higher dollar value than others sold under the same brand; whereas higher price-per-weight, a packaging difference, and the item having a larger relative share of sales in the brand portfolio, are linked to lower cannibalization. Also examined is the impact of pack-size cannibalization on promotion profitability for retailer PLs. That analysis finds PL price promotions have generally negative impacts on PL profits, and that pack-size cannibalization exacerbates this negative outcome. The results suggest both retailers and manufacturers should carefully consider pack-size cannibalization when evaluating the outcome of temporary price promotions. The study also provides some evidence-based recommendations from which managers can attempt to minimize such cannibalization.     

Consumer and Retailer Promotions: Who is Better Off?

The long-term effects of promotions on sales are increasingly linked to the supposed shift of economic power within channels from manufacturers to retailers. However, formal knowledge about how they influence channel decisions under different promotional arrangements and the distribution of channel profits remains very sparse. In this paper, I develop two 2-period models to investigate the impact on channel decisions and profits of manufacturer-controlled and retailer-controlled promotions targeted at consumers. My findings indicate that retailers always invest in retailer promotions, while manufacturers may find it optimal to not invest in consumer promotions. Economic power shifts from manufacturers to retailers when consumer promotions significantly expand the baseline demand in the long-term. Otherwise, manufacturers remain more powerful. Trade promotions or other profit-transfer mechanisms may be indispensable in easing conflicts over who should undertake promotions, especially when these promotions substantially increase future sales.     

Factors That Affect the Probability That a Food Retailer Sells a Specialty Food Product,Hybrid Striped Bass

ABSTRACT

Survey data from grocery retailers are analyzed to determine if sellers of hybrid striped bass have different socioeco-nomic and demographic characteristics than nonsellers. The results indicate that sellers are more likely to be chain stores, have larger seafood sales per customer, and have upper income clientele. Probit and logit analyses indicate that the probability that a retailer is a seller of hybrid striped bass increases as the firm sells more aquaculture products. The probability also increases if the retailer is a chain store whose average seafood sales per customer exceed $10, and whose annual seafood sales per store exceed $100,000.     

The Effect of Price Promotions on Repeat Purchase Behavior

Abstract

While there is general agreement that price promotions generally have an immediate positive impact on the sales of consumer nondurables, there is little agreement about their repeat-purchasing effects. Promotion usage effects may exist in which brand repurchase rates are negatively affected by the fact that a promotion was used to make a purchase.

Using scanner data, this study examines the effect of price promotions on brand repurchase rates in four product categories. Findings indicate that repurchase rates are generally higher after non-deal purchases, however, this seems largely attributable to differences in household pre-purchase probabilities.     

Consumer perceptions of monetary and non-monetary introductory promotions for new products

Abstract

Little research has examined how consumers respond to sales promotions in new product categories. This article fills this gap by integrating research on reference prices with literature on sales promotions for new product categories. Existing research suggests that consumers respond more favourably to non-monetary promotions (e.g. extra free promotions) than monetary promotions (e.g. price discounts) because non-monetary promotions are framed as segregated gains rather than reduced losses. However, both kinds of promotions are widely used in practice, suggesting the importance of other contributory factors. With a consumer experiment on a national panel of consumers, this research demonstrates that extra free product promotions are most preferred for existing products, and introductory low-price promotions are preferred for innovative products. The moderating effect of a product's innovativeness is explained via a new relationship in the marketing literature, whereby perceived risk mediates the relationship between perceived innovativeness and a consumer's tendency to stockpile.     

Impact of sales Promotion's benefits on perceived value: Does product category moderate the results?

The purpose behind the development of this research article is to assess the impact of sales promotions benefits on consumer perceived value and examine the moderating effect of product categories on the relation between sales promotions, their benefits, and consumer perceived value. The study used a sample of 400 consumers from India and ‘Structure Equation Modelling’ technique is applied to evaluate the research assumption. Finally, the moderating effect of the product category is evaluated by utilizing ‘Multi-Group Analysis' technique. Research findings reveal that the product category moderates the consumer's perceived value for hedonic and utilitarian benefits of sales promotion tools. It is found that utilitarian benefits of sales promotion have more impact on consumer perceived value in the context of personal care product while hedonic benefits are having more impact on consumer perceived value in the context of food products. A sales promotion plan can be made more effective when it is hedonic benefit oriented in the case of food products and utilitarian benefit oriented in the case of personal care products. The findings of this research can be useful for marketers to develop an effective sales promotion strategy considering the category wise differential impact of sales promotions benefits.     

The influence of corporate social responsibility appeals (CSRAs) on product sales: Which appeal types perform better?

This paper examines product-package Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) messages called Corporate Social Responsibility Appeals (CSRAs) that directly convey CSR messages to shoppers on product packages. Using a multi-source dataset of more than 10 million transactions from a large grocery chain, this paper first presents a typology consisting of seven CSRA types that provide buyers functional or symbolic benefits and examines their effects on product sales. Second, the paper presents the analysis of the moderating effects of store-generated promotions (price promotions and feature advertisements) and product types (virtue and vice) on the effects of functional and symbolic CSRAs and seven CSRAs on weekly sales. Results show that functional CSRAs perform better than symbolic CSRAs and that price promotions strengthen the sales of functional CSRAs. Featured advertising was also found to positively influence the sales of Functional CSRAs, but is found to have no impact on Symbolic CSRAs. Finally, the results show that Functional CSRAs are a better strategy for virtue products than Symbolic CSRAs. This paper concludes with managerial implications, theoretical contributions, and additional findings regarding price elasticity, sales trajectory, and sales performance across product categories.     

Cross channel effects of search engine advertising on brick & mortar retail sales: Meta analysis of large scale field experiments on Google.com

We investigate the cross channel effects of search engine advertising on Google.com on sales in brick and mortar retail stores. Obtaining causal and actionable estimates in this context is challenging: Brick and mortar store sales vary widely on a weekly basis; offline media dominate the marketing budget; search advertising and demand are contemporaneously correlated; and estimates have to be credible to overcome agency issues between the online and offline marketing groups. We report on a meta-analysis of a population of 15 independent field experiments, in which 13 well-known U.S. multi-channel retailers spent over $4 Million in incremental search advertising. In test markets category keywords were maintained in positions 1-3 for 76 product categories with no search advertising on these keywords in the control markets. Outcomes measured include sales in the advertised categories, total store sales and Return on Ad Spending. We estimate the average effect of each outcome for this population of experiments using a Hierarchical Bayesian (HB) model. The estimates from the HB model provide causal evidence that increasing search engine advertising on broad keywords on Google.com had a positive effect on sales in brick and mortar stores for the advertised categories for this population of retailers. There also was a positive effect on total store sales. Hence the increase in sales in the advertised categories was incremental to the retailer net of any sales borrowed from non-advertised categories. The total store sales increase was a meaningful improvement compared to the baseline sales growth rates. The average Return on Ad Spend (ROAS) is positive, but does not breakeven on average although several retailers achieved or exceeded break-even based only on brick and mortar sales. We examine the robustness of our findings to alternative assumptions about the data specific to this set of experiments. Our estimates suggest online and offline are linked markets, that media planners should account for the offline effects in the planning and execution of search advertising campaigns, and that these effects should be adjusted by category and retailer. Extensive replication and a unique research protocol ensure that our results are general and credible.     

Tactical use of rewards to enhance loyalty program effectiveness

A key member benefit for participating in a loyalty program (LP) is the rewards earned for points accrued. One popular reward structure is a catalog of many diverse items. The rewards among this broad selection are likely to differ in their appeal due to their intrinsic differences and customer heterogeneity. Prior research has shown that after redeeming a reward, LP members are more motivated to increase their purchase volume/frequency and share-of-wallet within the program, thereby becoming more active. In this study, we fit a hidden Markov model to a 4½ year longitudinal data set of points accrual and reward redemption activity for about 4500 members of a large coalition LP. Our analysis reveals three latent states — active, hyperactive and inactive. We then investigate the likelihood of LP members transitioning between these states across successive time periods, and examine the reward categories and marketing effort associated with these transitions. Subsequently, we use our model to optimally promote particular reward categories to encourage LP member migration to managerially desirable states or prevent them sliding into a less desirable state. Our proposed optimal reward strategy potentially increases the estimated proportion of LP members in the hyperactive latent state from 35.7% to 40.1%, with a resultant increase in sales revenue for retailers and service providers in the LP of 7.7%. We find that rewards which are more fungible have the strongest influence on increasing points accrual activity.     

When do loyalty programs work? The moderating role of design,retailer-strategy,and country characteristics

Many grocery retailers carry a loyalty program (LP). However, little is known under what conditions these programs are more or less effective. We provide a contingency framework that considers various design, retailer, and country characteristics that can moderate an LP's impact on a retailer's sales productivity. We test the framework across a large sample of 358 grocery banners from a broad cross-section of 27 western and eastern European countries. We find a positive effect of the more basic LP variant that offers direct and immediate rewards. This positive effect, however, disappears when retailers operate a more complex progressive-reward system and when they are part of a multivendor program. An LP's impact also differs between retailers and countries: it is lower when operated by discounters, and higher in countries that are more individualistic and long-term oriented, and where fewer competitors also carry a loyalty program.     

Are Brand Promotions Just a Zero-Sum Game – or Can They Increase the Size of the Pie?

Packaged goods companies now "spend" more on promotions – special offers, in-store displays and the like – than on media advertising. Until recently, it was generally believed that while promotions benefit individual brands, they usually do not result in an increase in overall category sales. Recent research, however, suggests that promotions can increase total category sales in a wide range of circumstances. This article starts by discussing the relationship between brand promotion and category sales, outlines research to date, and then describes the author's own most recent research on this topic. It concludes by pointing to implications for managers.     

On consumer choice patterns and the net impact of feature promotions

Even in the digital age, feature promotions continue to receive significant investments from CPG manufacturers and retailers. Whether this is money well spent depends on consumers' (heterogeneous) tendency to switch brands or stores in response to features. This study proposes a ‘Mixed-pattern Random-effects Nested Logit’ (MRNL) model to analyse the effect of feature promotions in a multi-retailer multi-brand setting. Across 16 different CPG categories, our results reveal that in all cases a mixture of choice patterns prevails: about half of households exhibit a brand focus (i.e. rather substitute between stores offering that brand), the remaining half show evidence of a store focus (i.e. rather substitute brand offers within a visited store). We find that the size of the promotion lift and its underlying sources differ substantially between patterns. Brand-focused consumers are generally more responsive to feature ads than store-focused consumers – especially in low-concentration categories; while they imply much stronger cannibalization for the manufacturer, and much weaker cannibalization for the retailer. It follows that retailers reap much higher benefits in the brand-focused segment, while manufacturers may not prefer that segment in terms of net gains and must be wary of subsidizing those consumers. We identify household and category characteristics that underlie the choice patterns and offer opportunities for targeting.     

Drivers of the synergy between price cuts and store flyer advertising at supermarkets and discounters

Despite retailers’ intense use of both price cuts and store flyer advertising, it is still unclear whether and when it is beneficial for retailers to combine the two promotion tools at the same time as opposed to using them separately. We systematically investigate synergies between price cuts and store flyers for a broad set of 488 brands from 44 consumer packaged goods categories across six leading German retailers. We find that a clear majority of the brands benefit from positive synergies and hence, combining price cuts and store flyer advertising is recommended, especially at supermarkets. This synergy can be strong. For instance, a 15 % price cut without store flyer support at a supermarket, on average, increases sales by 11 %, and medium spending on store flyers for the brand at its regular (non-promoted) price results in a sales lift of 8 %. The combined use of both tools, however, increases sales by 52 %, much more than the sum of their separate effects (11 % + 8 % = 19 %). Yet, there is also substantial variance in the synergy, which we explain with retailer format (supermarkets versus discounters) as well as various brand and category characteristics. Our findings have important implications for the coordination of promotion activities by retailers.     

Scarcity signaling in sales promotion: An evolutionary perspective of food choice and weight status

Obesity rates are increasing worldwide, with an alarming number of associated co-morbidities and deaths. Evolutionary psychology explains this development with an inherent preference for fatty and sweet foods. Recent evidence shows that consumers with a low socioeconomic status are more prone to being obese, but also that consumers with few resources respond more to scarcity signals. Based on this background, this paper investigates whether overweight individuals with a low income respond more to scarcity signaling in terms of sales promotions than others.To this end, a large-scale online survey was conducted across four food product categories in the setting of an online supermarket. Results show that overweight or obese individuals with low income levels responded more strongly to scarcity signaling. The findings inform researchers in terms of explaining different responses to sales promotions and support practitioners in aligning sales promotions to target group-specific behavior.