The Structure of Production,the Balance of Payments and Growth in Developing Countries: An Essay in Memory of Mohammed Nureldin Hussain 1954–2005

Abstract: This essay commemorates the work of Mohammed Nureldin Hussain who was Chief Research Economist in the African Development Bank, and Editor of the African Development Review from 2003 to his untimely death in 2005. It focuses on five aspects of his work: his emphasis on the role of the structure of production and trade for an understanding of growth rate differences between countries; his development of the balance of payments constrained growth model with capital flows; the application of this model to compare the performance of African and Asian countries; his use of this model as an alternative to the Harrod–Domar growth model for estimating the financing requirements in Africa to meet the Millennium Poverty Reduction targets by 2015 — and also for estimating the impact of the Highly Indebted Poor Country initiative on growth and poverty reduction in Africa, and finally, his critical appraisal in the 1980s of the supply‐side approach to devaluation in his own country, the Sudan.     

On Taxation,Political Accountability and Foreign Aid: Empirics to a Celebrated Literature

The Eubank findings on taxation, political accountability and foreign aid have had an important influence on academic and policymaking debates. Eubank has warned that his findings should not be generalised across Africa until they are backed by robust empirical evidence. This paper puts some empirical structure to the celebrated literature. The empirical evidence which is based on data from 53 African countries for the period 1996‐2010 broadly confirms the Somaliland‐based Eubank hypothesis that in the absence of foreign aid, the dependence of government on local tax revenues provides the leverage for better political governance.     

Trade, empire, and the fiscal context of imperial business during decolonization

Recent studies have shown convincingly that no 'neocolonialist' conspiracies were hatched to perpetuate British commercial dominance in the former colonies after independence, and that relations between individual firms and policy-makers were frequently troubled. In acknowledging the force of this general proposition, however, there is a risk of neglecting the still significant place of commercial considerations in state policy making. By relocating the relationship of trade and empire in the 1950s in an examination of a hitherto neglected dimension of British taxation policy, this article demonstrates that the Conservative government sought to assist British business with colonial interests at a time when these firms faced new uncertainties.     

中石油与苏丹的油气合作浅析

本文分析了南苏丹独立后中石油与苏丹油气合作面临的机遇、挑战及现状,针对合作中存在的问题提出中石油应通过结构性安排规避政治风险、提高项目管理能力、培养国际化人才、实施本土化策略等对策。     

W. Artur Lewis Lecture: The Lewis model of “economic growth with unlimited supplies of labor”

The National Economic Association introduced the W. Arthur Lewis Distinguished Lecture series in December 1985. The Lewis Lecture is named in honor of the 1979 Nobel Laureate in Economics, much of whose research has been devoted to the problem of Third World economic development. A native of St. Lucia, in the former British West Indies, Arthur Lewis has risen to fame as the preeminent development economist of his generation. He is most famous for his 1954Manchester School paper on economic development with unlimited supplies of labor, but his contributions span the fields of industrial organization, public finance, and international trade. He was one of the first to explore in depth the evidence on movements on terms of trade between industrialized and developing countries and was the first to perform a regression analysis in empirical trade research. Lewis was an active advisor to various governments in West Africa, the Caribbean, and Southeast Asia during the development decades. He says that he conceived of the idea of unlimited supplies of labor while on mission in Bangkok, Thailand in 1952. This third lecture in the series, by Professor Charles Kindleberger, examines the broad applicability of the Lewis model.     

Naar De Meetbaarheid Van Een Rechtvaardige Verdeling

Summary The author proposes a method to arrive at a cardinal theory of utility or welfare (considered identical) by the introduction into the utility function of (1) variables, (2) parameters and (3) coefficients. Parameters characterize measured differences between individuals relevant to the problem considered; variables indicate either choices open to individuals (job, income) or exogenous circumstances (a salary scale or a tax scale). The ethical postulate introduced is the equality of each coefficient among different individuals, offered as an interpretation of the fundamental equality of men. Once the utility function has been defined and tested, justice in distribution is defined as equality of the values of that function for all individuals considered. A numerical illustration is added in which years of schooling and degree of independence are used as parameters to characterize twenty social groups and the just as distinct from the actual income distribution is calculated for the Netherlands around 1965.It affords the Board of Editors great pleasure to publish this paper by one of their members. This gives the Board the opportunity, also on behalf of the readers ofDe Economist, to congratulate Professor Tinbergen most cordially upon his 70th birthday, which he celebrated on 12th April, 1973.     

Business Cycles Synchronisation and Symmetries in the Transition to East African Monetary Union

Our paper explores the prospects for the proposed East African Monetary Union (EAMU) by employing rigorous empirical tools to analyse business cycles synchronisation, structural cross-correlations, spectral decomposition and regional clusters to identify different cyclical episodes, periodicities and characterise the economic cycles of East African countries. We find that cyclical movements reflect various idiosyncratic, common, historical and external shocks in the region. Secondly, all countries appear to be structurally correlated with each other except for South Sudan and Burundi. Our results also observe that the contemporaneous co-movements of East African Community (EAC) cycles with those of Kenya and Tanzaniaare procyclical with coincidental path shift, while the same EAC cycles appear to be acyclical with those of Burundi. Additionally, from the spectral decomposition, Kenyan cycles take 10 years to complete, while those of Tanzania and Rwanda take 8 years. Ugandan and Burundian cycles take approximately 5 years, while the cyclical frequency for South Sudan corresponds to 3.3 years. Finally, the cluster characterisation of countries reveals that South Sudan, Burundi and Rwanda form a group, while Kenya and Tanzania from a group distinct from the rest. We urge the member countries to prioritise policies on regional risk-sharing and adjustment mechanisms, in addition to establishing credible institutional infrastructure that ensures surveillance and enforcement of convergence conditions adopted in EAMU protocol.     

科索沃冲突中的宗教因素解读

20世纪末以来,宗教冲突取代意识形态冲突成为地区性群体对抗和冲突的主要形式。科索沃冲突是冷战后国际政治研究的重点议题。科索沃单方面宣布独立引发的多米诺骨牌效应,在随后的南苏丹独立以及中东地区动荡中都有所体现。纵观科索沃冲突整个过程,宗教因素既是冲突爆发的深层根源,同时也是推进冲突烈度和强度变化的重要动力源。在现代社会,宗教发展的多元主义倾向使宗教分布地图不具备类似主权国家地图的一元性。宗教边界的运动性是削弱政治边界的潜在威胁,典型例证就是以科索沃为代表的、针对宗教圣地归属的直接并且长期的暴力冲突。当地区政治和宗教的整体结构表现出弱国强宗教的特征之时,国内宗教问题外溢以及随之带来的宗教安全困境需要谨慎对待。     

South Africa in the Australian mirror: per capita real GDP in the Cape Colony,Natal, Victoria,and New South Wales, 1861–1909

This article compares the real GDP per capita of the Cape Colony and Natal between 1861 and 1909 with that of Australia's two most developed colonies, Victoria and New South Wales. Estimates of European and non‐European GDP per capita for both South African colonies are also provided. Together, this information allows for the first time an evaluation of the growth performance of these important parts of the South African economy in the colonial era. The article concludes that South African performance in this period was stronger than often assumed and that by the beginning of the twentieth century European South Africans, now more fully integrated into a British World economy, operated at a level of GDP per capita that matched and in some places may have exceeded that of Australians. Non‐European South Africans, however, did not share in these same advances.     

Britain as a debtor: Indian sterling balances, 1940–53

The British war effort in the Second World War depended on US Lend‐Lease and the accumulation of sterling balances by other countries, including the Empire. By the end of the war outstanding balances were equivalent to 60 per cent of British net receipts under Lend‐Lease. Of the total sterling balances, about a third was accumulated by India. This article seeks to evaluate the costs incurred by India in the reduction of balances after the war. The accumulation of balances and their use to repatriate India's sterling debt is described. British efforts to convince India to accept a partial cancellation of the balances are analysed, singling out the crucial role of Keynes. The negotiations after independence are detailed, including releases, transfers to Pakistan, settlement of pensions, purchase of military stores, and gold sales. The possible contribution of British divestment to reduce outstanding balances is assessed. The Indian case is compared with those of other holders, such as Portugal, Brazil, Argentina, and Egypt. The links between the accumulation of sterling balances and inflation are considered. In the end there was a significant reduction in the purchasing power of sterling balances, but not for the reasons anticipated by London.     

Moments of Disparate Peaks: Race-Gender Wage Gaps Among Mature Persons, 1965–2007

This paper examines intertemporal changes in racial disparity among mature Americans during the post-Jim Crow era, that is, 1965–2006. For a large nationally representative sample of American households, we pay special attention to differences between the South and other national regions, as the majority of African Americans do now and always have resided in the South. Historically, periods of progress in African American wellbeing have been followed by periods of regress that are often initiated by some combination of social change, government policy, and macroeconomic instability. Accordingly, we construct an overlapping series of five synthetic intertemporal cohorts of new seniors (ages 50–64). Cohorts are separated by the troughs of recessions. Finally, we note that regardless of race, men and women experience dissimilar opportunities in the market and in society; hence, gender dissimilarity is incorporated into our analysis. We find 1) large reductions in Post-Jim Crow contemporary disparity; 2) we also find large continuing disparity among the most recent cohorts; and, 3) changes in Southern racial weekly wage inequality (especially among men) have been especially important for determining the national pattern.     

Hunger games: or how the Allied blockade in the First World War deprived German children of nutrition,and Allied food aid subsequently saved them

At the onset of the First World War, Germany was subject to a shipping embargo by the Allied forces. Ostensibly military in nature, the blockade prevented not only armaments but also food and fertilizers from entering Germany. The impact of that blockade on civilian populations has been debated ever since. Germans protested that the Allies had wielded hunger as a weapon against women and children with devastating results, a claim that was hotly denied by the Allies. The impact of what the Germans termed the Hungerblockade on childhood nutrition can now be assessed using a newly discovered dataset based on heights and weights of nearly 600,000 German schoolchildren measured between 1914 and 1924. Statistical analysis reveals a grim truth: German children suffered severe malnutrition due to the blockade. Social class impacted risk of deprivation, with working‐class children suffering the most. Surprisingly, they were the quickest to recover after the war. Their rescue was fuelled by massive food aid organized by the former enemies of Germany, and delivered cooperatively with both government and civil society. The ability of former belligerents to work together after an exceptionally bitter war to feed impoverished children may hold hope for the future.     

Overpopulation and unemployment in Zimbabwe

The size of Zimbabwe's African population has grown dramatically over the past 50 years, with 5.7 children on average being born per woman. The following factors are responsible for the rapid population growth in Zimbabwe: the country's economic prosperity during the period of the Central African Federation from 1953 to 1963, and its successful food policy before and after independence; the success of the health system, also in both periods; and the fact that women have not been incorporated into the economy as wage-earners. A brief historical overview is presented, followed by sections on the food policy and health system, reasons for the persistence of large families, and the relationship between wage-earning by women and the birth rate. The author also describes some of the problems caused by overpopulation. Engaging more women in regular wage-earning employment is the key to controlling the birth rate in Zimbabwe. Current government policies encouraging female employment in government services and the economy in general, along with the expansion of contraceptive services, could influence female fertility over the long term.     

Evolution of Kenyan agricultural policy

The political and economic pressures which gave rise to the current agricultural policy environment in Kenya are reviewed. Colonial policies were favourable to agriculture and its mainly large (European) landholder focus. After independence policies at first antithetical to agriculture were followed once again by favourable policies reflecting the power of the African political élite, many of whom became large landholders after independence. Interventionist but favourable initiatives in agriculture have continued to the present.     

British Colonial Legacies and Political Development

This paper investigates the developmental legacies of British colonial rule. It draws on insight from qualitative case studies, which show that direct and indirect rule institutionalized very different states and thereby differentially affected postcolonial political development. The study proposes that these qualitative findings might provide insight into mechanisms underlying past statistical work on colonial state legacies. Using a variable measuring the extent to which 33 former British colonies were ruled through indirect legal-administrative institutions, the analysis finds that the extent of indirect colonial rule is strongly and negatively related to several different indicators of postcolonial political development while controlling for other factors. It therefore provides evidence that the present levels of political development among former British colonies have historical roots and have been shaped by the extent to which they were ruled either directly or indirectly during the colonial period.     

Coastal‐inland interactions in Burmese history: a long‐term perspective

The history of Burma, like that of many Southeast Asian countries, can be viewed in terms of the interaction between coastal regions and kingdoms, on the one hand, and more densely populated inland agrarian states on the other. In the case of Burma this division also largely coincides with ethnic differences between the Mon and the Arakanese in the former category and the Burmans and the Shans in the latter. External influences have typically been transmitted through overseas contact, with India and Ceylon as in the case of the pervasive cultural force of Buddhism, and later with the impact of firearms introduced by the Portuguese during the 16th century, that formed the background to the protracted conflicts between the Burmese Toungoo, Ava and Konbaung kingdoms and the Thai kingdom of Ayuthia. The beginning of the 19th century saw the start of the three wars between the Konbaung Dynasty and India‐based British imperialism in which the major role was played by disputes over trade and the Bengal‐Arakan frontier. British rule in Lower Burma after 1826 and 1854 transformed the economic system of the country even before the complete occupation after 1885 by integrating it with the expanding world economy through rice and teak exports. Between 1885 and the Japanese invasion of 1942 the impact of international trade, foreign direct investment and immigration was the major force of both expansion and contraction of the economic system, as well as of social and political change and instability, eventually culminating after 1945 in the achievement of independence. The economic policy of independent Burma, during both the civilian and subsequent military regimes, was largely shaped by the fraught legacy of overseas contact in Burmese history as noted above. The recent change of the capital from the commercial port of Rangoon to the new inland ‘city’ of Naypyidaw is thus of more than merely symbolic significance since it may reflect a desire to return to the apparently safe isolation of the interior ‘heartland’ over the vicissitudes of international trade and overseas contacts. But is that a wise choice in the increasingly globalized world of the 21st century?     

Lynchings,labour, and cotton in the US south: A reappraisal of Tolnay and Beck

I examine lynchings of African Americans in the US South from 1882 to 1930, more than twenty years after Tolnay and Beck’s (1995) seminal work. The authors claim that lynchings were due to economic competition between African American and white cotton workers. I confirm much of their original hypothesis with new data and techniques, and expand upon it, finding that another explanation, Williamson’s (1997) psychosexual one, might complement the economic one. I also discover that, in line with an economic competition framework, lynchings predict more black out-migration from 1920 to 1930, and higher state-level wages.     

Monetary Integration In Eastern And Southern Africa: Choosing A Currency Peg For Comesa

African countries involved in monetary integration projects have been advised to peg their currencies against an external anchor before the definite fixing of exchange rates. In this study, we estimate optimum currency area indices to determine, between four alternatives, which international currency would be the most suitable anchor for Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa (COMESA) members and for a set of other selected African economies. We conclude that the euro and the British pound prevail over the US dollar or the yen; that the euro would be the best pegging for most, but not all, COMESA members; and that some of these economies display evidence of more intense integration with third countries, with which they share membership in other (overlapping) regional economic communities, than within COMESA.     

POLITICAL LIBERALIZATION OR ARMED CONFLICTS? POLITICAL CHANGES IN POST–COLD WAR AFRICA

The African political scene after the end of the Cold War has been characterized by two major issues: the development of political liberalization and frequent outbreaks of armed conflict. The purpose of this paper is to reflect on the relationship between these two issues. Although political liberalization cannot directly explain the outbreak of armed conflicts, the relationship can be understood by taking patrimonial characteristics of the post‐colonial African states into account. The economic crisis and the change of the international environment after the 1980s compelled African states to launch the transformation, during which three results emerged: countries advancing successfully toward transformation into “polyarchy”; countries having fallen into severe armed conflicts; and countries in which authoritarian rulers managed to survive through introducing superficial measures of political liberalization. The characteristics of political change after the end of the Cold War can be therefore understood as transition processes of the post‐colonial African states.     

Clark's Malthus delusion: response to ‘Farming in England 1200–1800’

Clark's claims about the scale of English agricultural output from the 1200s to the 1860s flout historical and geographical reality. His income‐based estimates start with the daily real wages of adult males and assume that days worked per year were constant. Those advanced in British economic growth make no such assumption and instead are built up from the output side. They correlate better with population trends and are consistent with an economy slowly growing and becoming richer. Clark's denial that such growth occurred, his assertion that substantially more land must have been under arable cultivation, his belief that conditions of full employment invariably prevailed in the countryside at harvest time, his concern that the wage bill would have exceeded the value of output in British economic growth, his refusal to consider the possibility that the working year was of variable length, and his assertion that output per acre must have been equalized across arable and pasture are all shown to be figments of his ‘Malthus delusion’.