Productivity and economic growth in East Asia: innovation, efficiency and accumulation

This paper uses a varying coefficients frontier production function model to examine the sources of growth between 1987 and 1993 in four East Asian economies—Hong Kong, Singapore, Japan and South Korea. Using data for 20 manufacturing sectors at the three-digit SIC level, this study provides the first comprehensive examination of sources of growth that allows one to decompose total factor productivity growth, separating out technical efficiency changes (TECs) from technological progress (TP). We find that while there is ample evidence of the importance of increasing inputs in growth, and there is some support for technical efficiency change, or catching up to the frontier over this period, there is weak or even negative evidence for the role of technological progress, measured as a shift in the estimated production frontier.     

The capital tax paradox in a greening economy

We adopt a simple model of endogenous growth with polluting capital and a fixed budget for aggregate emissions. Pollution abatement efficiency is growing over time due to technical progress. We find that long-run capital and consumption are inversely related to the initial capital stock. Capital taxation does not harm the economy but actually raises long-run consumption and production, which we call the “capital tax paradox.” The reason for this surprising result is that in an economy with a binding carbon policy, early abundance of polluting capital is not a blessing but a curse. It is preferable to have a large capital stock when abatement efficiency has grown sufficiently large. The paper also provides novel results on the impact of pollution intensity and the rate of technical progress on the greening of the economy and the pollution permit prices. In the quantitative part, we calibrate model and study economic growth under different assumptions on the basic model parameters.

     

基于时变随机前沿生产函数的上海工业增长因素分析

本文应用时变随机前沿生产函数和行业面板数据．测算出1995-2004年上海工业32个行业的动态劳动、资本产出弹性，技术进步率和技术效率变化率；在此基础上进一步得到各因素对工业产值增长的贡献度。主要结论是：（1）上海工业增长主要依赖资本投入的高速增长和加速的技术进步率；（2）资本增长比技术进步对上海工业产值的增长有更大的贡献度，而要实现工业可持续增长，必须依靠更快的技术进步；（3）上海工业总体的技术效率变化率向下变化，说明市场自由竞争的加剧导致了不同行业或企业的技术效率差距在拉大．这有利于行业资源优化配置和上海工业可持续发展。     

Demand and supply as factors determining economic growth

Summary In models of economic growth the long-run rate of growth is usually determined by exogenous factors like the increase in working population and technical progress. In this article the rate of technical progress is treated as an endogenous variable depending on the increase in real wages and the degree of capacity utilization. A clay-clay production model is presented. Moreover, consumption, investment, changes in wages and in prices are explained by additional equations. Numerical steady state solutions for different values of the parameters are discussed. In each case the specific role played by demand and supply is stressed.The authors are Professor of Economics and Assistant Professor of Economics, University of Tilburg, The Netherlands. They are indebted to Professor S. K. Kuipers for valuable comments on an earlier version of the article.     

The problem of reducing the dependence of the Russian economy on primary product exports and economic policy alternatives

This paper discusses the causes and consequences of the high dependence of Russia’s socioeconomic development on the world market prices of hydrocarbon resources and their production volumes. The author analyzed the mechanisms underlying this dependency using a model of centrally planned economy without technical progress. The author shows that growth in raw materials production and prices leads to the “Dutch disease,” which is, hence, an economic growth paradox typical of open economies and having a resource-technological and structural character. The author’s conclusion is that welfare growth opportunities are underutilized under Dutch disease conditions in case of government restrictions on primary product exports aimed at conserving the trading sector. The case is made for increasing labor productivity in the Russian economy in order to overcome its dependence on the oil and gas exports.     

Efficiency and productivity analyses of Indonesian manufacturing industries

This study estimates the technical efficiencies and total factor productivity (TFP) growths in food, textile, chemical and metal products industries from 1993 to 2000 in Indonesia by using the stochastic frontier model. Furthermore, the determinants of inefficiency are also analyzed and TFP growth is decomposed into technological progress, a scale component, and efficiency growth. The results reveal that the food, textile, chemical and metal products sectors are on average 50.79%, 47.89%, 68.65% and 68.91% technically efficient, respectively. It is noted that ownership contributed to technical inefficiencies in the food sector; location and size contributed to technical inefficiencies in the textile sector, whereas size, ownership and age contributed to inefficiencies in the chemical and metal products sectors. We note that productivity in food, textile, and metal products sectors decreased at the rate of 2.73%, 0.26%, and 1.65%, respectively, but increased at a rate of 0.5% in the chemical sector. The decomposition of TFP growth indicates that the growths are driven positively by technical efficiency changes and negatively by technological progress in all four sectors.     

基于SFA的我国中东部经济发展效率差异性的实证分析

以10个省1999—2008年的面板数据为基础,运用基于超越对数的随机前沿生产函数模型,分析了中东部经济发展的技术效率、技术进步和全要素生产率,研究发现:中部的技术效率和技术进步要低于东部,中部对资本和劳动力投入的依存度较大,但中部的效率变化值很大,导致全要素生产率大于东部,中东部经济发展差异存在着减小的趋势。     

外资撤离速度与制造业转型升级——基于CGE对IT制造业的仿真分解分析

近年来，IT制造业等外资依赖性较强的产业面临的外资撤离风险不断升高，如何衡量和评估不同撤离速度下内资企业的发展稳定性和实现转型升级的支撑性?文章将CGE模型数值模拟与DEA分解分析相结合，考察不同外资撤离速度场景对IT制造业内资企业的影响，以及机制和路径。结果表明：1、当外资流入为0或者其存量以5%的速度小幅持续撤离时，内资企业受影响较小。较高的资本深化率、技术效率和技术进步使得其能够较快填补市场空白，具备企稳回升的能力；2、当外资存量以25%的较高速度撤离时，内资企业由于技术进步受到抑制，劳动生产率处于不可扭转的持续下滑趋势；3、外资企业在可见预期内仍然将是内资企业的主要技术进步来源，外资撤离会通过抑制内资企业技术进步，从而约束资本深化和技术效率的路径中对内资企业的稳定发展和转型升级产生负面影响。基于上述研究，文章提出相关政策启示和建议。     

Pollution in a neo-classical world: The classics rehabilitated?

Summary In this paper it has been examined under what conditions the increasing costs of pollution will put a limit to the growth of output in a growing economy. On the assumption of a certain type of aggregate production function, labour- and land-augmenting technical progress and pollution costs progressively increasing with the stock of capital, the analysis led to the conclusion that only under very restrictive conditions economic development will not peter out in secular stagnation or semistagnation. Only if the rate of land-augmenting technical progress is sufficiently high with respect to the growth rates of capital and effective labour pollution costs will not be a barrier to economic growth. We thank Mr. A. F. Gerritsma, Roden, for drawing the figures.     

The welfare effects of liquidity constraints

We analyze the welfare implications of liquidity constraintsfor households in an overlapping generations model with growth.In a closed economy with exogenous technical progress, liquidityconstraints reduce welfare if the economy is dynamically inefficient.But if it is dynamically efficient, some degree of financialrepression is required to maximize steady-state utility, eventhough some generations are hurt in the transition. With endogenoustechnical progress, financial repression may increase welfareeven along the transition path, thus leading to a Pareto improvement.In this case the optimal degree of financial repression increasesas the economy grows.     

科技进步贡献率的测算与预测——以宁波市2003-2023年的时间序列模型为例

推动经济增长的因素有很多,技术进步是其中重要一环。目前,中国的GDP总量已经位居世界第二,但经济增长与由此产生的发展不平衡、不协调、不可持续的矛盾日益加剧。要素驱动的老路难以为继,科技创新将成为未来经济增长的新动能。以宁波市2003年至2023年间的时间序列模型为例,对宁波的科技进步贡献率进行测算和预测,并在此基础上提出对科技进步贡献率的一些看法。     

Economic Fluctuations in the U.S. and Euro Area: Quantifying the Contribution of Technical Change

This article aims at quantifying the contribution of technical change to cyclical fluctuations in the U.S. and euro area. We distinguish technical progress in labor-augmenting and capital-augmenting change. To this end, we derive and estimate a New Keynesian DSGE model embodying a constant elasticity of substitution (CES) production function for both areas. Our main findings are: (i) capital-augmenting progress is the main source of technical change volatility; (ii) labor-augmenting shocks give a negligible contribution to the variance of output; (iii) technical change (of both types) explains more economic fluctuations in the U.S. than in the euro area; and (iv) historical decomposition of GDP growth over our sample period (1980–2008) shows that capital-augmenting progress is one of the key drivers of the business cycle.     

农业全要素生产率时间演变及区域差异研究——基于江苏省的实证分析

基于江苏省13个地级市的农业投入产出面板数据,运用DEA-Malmquist方法,对江苏农业全要素生产率进行了实证分析。结果表明,2001-2014年间江苏省农业技术进步增长幅度较大,而技术效率变动呈现递减态势,农业TFP增长主要是靠技术进步推动的,且江苏农业TFP增长率及其构成存在显著的地区差异,苏南农业TFP增速明显高于苏中和苏北地区。     

Imperfect competition,technical progress and capital accumulation

This paper constructs a dynamic equilibrium growth model, in which some firms act as monopsonies on the labor market. The framework is an overlapping generations growth model with altruistic agents. Two types of firms exist, competitive and non‐competitive, the latter being endowed with a more productive technology. They behave strategically on the labor market, in taking into account the impact of their demand for labor on the equilibrium wage and on their profit. In this framework, the impact of technical progress on capital accumulation can be positive or negative, depending on its effect on monopsony power.     

环境约束下中国区域工业技术效率与生产率及其影响因素实证研究

本文运用方向性距离函数和曼奎斯特-卢恩伯格指数方法测算了环境约束下中国1998--2007年各地区工业技术效率、全要素生产率指数和环境规制成本,并对影响技术效率和全要素生产率增长的因素进行了实证分析。结果显示：环境技术效率呈现东、中、西依次递减,并且技术效率越高的地区,环境管制成本越低;考虑环境因素后,中国各地区工业全要素生产率指数降低,主要是由技术进步推动;环境约束下工业全要素生产率东部最高,西部次之,中部最低;人均GRP、FDI、工业结构、能源结构、人口密度对技术效率和全要素生产率有不同程度的影响。     

资源环境约束下的城市经济效率测度与差异研究——基于中部与长江经济带14市的比较

将资源和环境因素同时纳入效率研究框架中,运用SBM模型以及Malmquist指数方法测度了2006—2013年14个城市的经济效率、全要素生产率（TFP）,并将全要素生产率变动分解为技术效率和技术进步,实现了TFP增长的动态分解。研究结果表明,大多数城市存在效率改进空间;当考虑资源环境约束时,城市绿色TFP较低,技术进步是推动绿色TFP增长的主要源泉,而技术效率的作用并不明显。在生产效率的核算中,如果忽略资源环境因素的刚性约束,有可能导致经济增长效率被高估,由此得出的政策建议会带有一定的误导性。     

基于DEA Malmquist指数法的生产性服务业增长效率研究——以河北省为例

为了反映生产性服务业增长效率,本文根据前沿生产函数模型,使用面板数据,采用DEA Malmquist指数法分析2004—2009年间河北省生产性服务业增长效率特征,将全要素生产率(TFP)增长分解为技术进步率和效率的改进两部分,并深入探讨内部主要行业增长效率特征。研究表明,河北省对技术的吸收利用能力较低,而技术的引进成为TFP增长的主要来源;从内部行业来看,传统行业中交通运输业发展较快,具有明显增长优势,而作为知识密集型的金融业发展滞后。通过研究找出河北省生产性服务业增长效率的影响因素,为各行业发展指明方向,为有关部门提供政策依据。     

Consumption-investment trade-off,wage-profit trade-off,and terms of trade

In most modern models of international trade the assumptions made are that goods are produced, consumed and traded internationally according to the dictates of national utility functions. The gains of international trade are also seen to be higher levels of utility.This paper uses an input-output model to determine which country specializes in capital-good manufacture and which in the consumption goods. The criterion determining this in a planned economy uses the property of maximum growth rate of goods produced for a given per capita consumption (or its reverse causation of maximum per capita consumption for a given growth rate). For free market economies the criterion is taken to be in terms of profit-rate maximization for a given real wage or its reverse.Using these criteria the investment-consumption frontiers or wage-profit frontiers are described in this paper by corresponding equations. The changes in terms of trade are then interpreted as various forms of technical progress. The equations are also depicted forthe case of thriftiness of entrepreneurs being less than unity.     

中国装备制造业全要素生产率增长的分解:1998-2009——基于省际面板数据的研究

本文采用超越对数的随机前沿生产函数和1998-2009年的省际面板数据,测算了中国各地区装备制造业的全要素生产率(TFP)增长率,并从技术进步、技术效率变化、规模效率变化、配置效率变化四个方面对中国装备制造业全要素生产率变化的特点进行了分析。经验结果表明,样本期间内,全国以及东、中、西部地区装备制造业的TFP都有所增长,其增速皆呈现出先增后减再增的趋势;TFP增长对全国装备制造业产出增长的贡献率相对较低,仅为0.117。对TFP增长的分解发现,技术进步已成为中国装备制造业TFP增长的主要源泉,配置效率和规模效率恶化则严重阻碍了中国装备制造业TFP水平的提高。分地区来看,中部地区的TFP增长率最高,东部次之,西部最低,这主要是由于西部地区装备制造业要素配置效率的下降最为严重,东部地区规模效率的下降最为严重。     

Indonesia'S Rapid Economic Growth: 1968–81

The paper provides some estimates of the sources of Indonesia's rapid growth in the period 1968–81. This rapid growth was partly due to the improvement in the terms of trade, especially because the improvement in the financial position of government raised the investment rate. But part of it was also due to a high rate of technical progress, especially in agriculture, and to the expansionary domestic fiscal policy of government.