Endogenous policy,structural shift,and demand for money

Zusammenfassung Endogene Politik, Strukturver?nderungen und die Geldnachfrage.- Dieser Artikel soll die Geldnachfrage-Gleichung überprüfen, die ursprünglich Goldfeld anhand der viertelj?hrlichen US-Daten der Periode 1955–1978 ermittelte. Die Ergebnisse verschiedener Sch?tzmethoden und Spezifikationstests deuten darauf hin, da\ Goldfelds Geldnachfrage-Gleichung falsch spezifiziert ist. Das l?\t sich trotz einiger gegenteiliger Behauptungen weder auf eine unzureichende dynamische Spezifikation noch auf die nur konventionelle Berücksichtigung von Autokorrelation zurückführen. Vielmehr müssen die Annahmen, Zinss?tze seien exogen und die Struktur sei konstant, zurückgewiesen werden. Eine Zinsreaktionsfunktion unter Verwendung der wichtigsten makroókonomischen Zielvariablen bei verzógerter Reaktion der Zinsen tr?gt in der Tat dazu bei, die Goldfeldsche Geldnachfragefunktion zu verbessern.

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Résumé Politique endogène, changement structurel et la demande de monnaie. - Le but de cet article est de revoir l’équation de la demande de monnaie suggérée la première fois par Goldfeld en utilisant les données trimestrielles des E.U. pour la période 1955Q1-1978Q4. Les résultats dérivés des méthodes différentes d’estimation et des tests de spécification différents indiquent que l’équation de la demande de monnaie de Goldfeld souffre d’une spécification fausse. Nonobstant quelques opinions contraires cela semble résulter ni d’une spécification dynamique impropre ni d’une estimation conventionnelle en terme d’un ajustement d’autocorrélation. Au contraire, il faut refuser les suppositions que des taux d’intérêt soient exogènes et que la structure soit stable. La spécification d’une fonction de réaction de taux d’intérêt en terme des principales variables de but macroéconomiques et du taux d’intérêt retardé contribue à améliorer la fonction de demande de monnaie à la Goldfeld.

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Resumen Politica endógena, cambio estructural y demanda de dinero. - El objeto de este trabajo es reevaluar la ecuación de demanda de dinero sugerida originalmente por Goldfeld utilizando datos trimestrales correspondientes al período 1955–1978. Los resultados obtenidos por diferentes métodos y los tests de especificación indican que la ecuación de demanda de dinero de Goldfeld no esta adecuadamente especificada. A la conclusion contraria no se llega ni partiendo de una especificación dinámica, que no sería apropiada, ni ajustando los resultados de la estimación convencional por autocorrelación. En cambio se rechaza el supuesto de exogeneidad de la tasa de interés y el de estabilidad estructural. La especificación de la tasa de interés como función de reacción de las variables macroeconómicas más importantes y de la tasa de interés desfasada contribuye a mejorar la función de demanda de dinero de Goldberg.

     

Planning policy, planning practice, and housing supply

This paper outlines a brief history of planning policy in Englandas it relates to housing. It discusses briefly the issues raisedby a plan-led system, and the uncertainties of household projections.Evidence on the relationship between house prices and housingsupply, and on house-builders’ landbanks, suggests thatplanning constraints are a key factor behind the long-term upwardtrend in house prices (though over shorter periods other factors,such as long-term real interest rates, will be more important).It concludes that the environmental constraints on additionalhousing supply, albeit important, can be overstated. While thereare serious adverse social consequences of the way in whichthe English housing market works today, it is not yet clearthat the (largely welcome) policy steps taken over the past3 years will prove sufficient to resolve this problem.     

The Tet offensive: A turning point in America's Asian policy

A series of financial crises in emerging market economies during the 1990s have been a catalyst for efforts to strengthen the international financial system. Indeed, much has been done to strengthen the architecture of the international financial system, both in terms of crisis prevention and crisis management. The powerful G‐7 countries have made it clear that the International Monetary Fund (IMF) plays a significant role in shaping the new global financial architecture. However, is the IMF up to the task? This paper argues that despite its many limitations, the IMF is an important institution that can strengthen the global financial system. The paper begins with a discussion of what the IMF is and what it is not This will help put in perspective the nature, mandate, and role of this much‐misunderstood global institution. The second section reviews some of the recent reforms the IMF has introduced to effectively carry out its new function. While these reforms are hardly revolutionary, they nevertheless, will significantly strengthen both the domestic and international financial system. The third section examines the Achilles heel of the IMF—that its policies promote moral hazard. How effectively have the IMF reforms addressed this? It is argued that although the problems associated with moral hazard can never be fully eliminated, the IMF reforms will greatly mitigate the problem. It is very likely that for the foreseeable future, the IMF will continue to serve as an informal international lender of last resort.     

The october 1979 federal reserve policy shift: An analysis using variance decomposition

Conclusions Subsequent to the announced October 1979 policy shift, many economists voiced doubt about whether the Federal Reserve was sincerely committed to the execution of an NBR's targeting strategy. However, the charge that the central bank continued to accommodate as vigorously after the announced policy shift as before is not borne out by these results. Pre- and post-1979 comparisons of the FFR and NBR decompositions suggest a conscious policy alteration aimed at tightening control over NBR while allowing the FFR to respond to money market conditions.The evidence also indicates continuedM1 endogeneity in the second period, with feedback occurring between this variable and the FFR. While the measuredM1 aggregate used in the VAR's does not allow a precise identification of money demand forces, it is reasonable to relate this endogeneity to the erratic shifts in money demand which are known to have occurred over the 1979–82 period.Thus, while the analysis does indicate the central bank did alter its behavior with respect to the NBR policy instrument, the results do not show the Fed was able to control the volatility ofM1 over the NBR targeting period.Funded by the NTSU Office of Research, grant no. 34475. Ken Smith and Doug McMillin offered helpful comments. The usual caveat applies.     

美国解决住房问题政策及对深圳市的启示

一、美国解决住房问题的政策 在美国，解决住房问题的政策总的来讲有3种：供给方面的政策；需求方面的政策以及租金管制。     

Reflections on the nature and policy implications of planning restrictions on housing supply. Discussion of 'Planning policy, planning practice, and housing supply' by Kate Barker

Planning is about other things as well, but it is fundamentallyan economic activity. It allocates a scarce resource but independentlyof prices or any market information. In analysing the effectsthis allocative mechanism has on housing supply (or, indeed,the supply of buildings for any given use), we need to thinkcarefully about what exactly it is that planning allocates andwhether, in its operation, it creates a constraint on the supplyof what it is allocating. In the British case, our planningsystem does not operate on the supply of housing directly, butindirectly via the constraint imposed on land supply. Giventhe income elasticity of demand for space this has policy implicationsperhaps even more serious than is acknowledged by Barker.     

Population policy in South Africa: a critical perspective

The argument in this article is that population growth and the concept of balancing resources against population growth is flawed when the context, in this case South Africa, is gross inequalities in resource distribution. The fact is that causes of poverty are located in the social and political structures which give people unequal access to existing resources or international aid. Population trends reflect the mode of production of that society. It is argued that the Malthusian law of population and the theory of demographic transition is ahistorical and inaccurate. The theory does not explain why population growth rates change. In South Africa, fertility reflects lack of control over one's life and poverty. Migrant labor in South Africa undermined normal social institutions and disrupted family life. Government has emphasized a fear of a future population crisis because of resource shortages and a fear of the growing black population. The South African population development program is extracted and discussed. Questions are raised about the theory of demographic transition, the way resource allocation is ascertained, the relationship between resources and population in a specific area, and the relationship between population growth and development in general. The theory of demographic transition is examined and the Western influences which contributed to population growth through requests for changes in sexual mores and the effects of colonization. When demographic transition theory postulates that mortality rates decline with industrialization as a result of access to medical care and an improved diet, it doesn't take into account the discriminatory health care allocation under apartheid, or the displacement of rural people from their land and undermining of the rural peasantry. Separate development has led to inferior schooling and lack of access to skilled employment. In discussing the availability of resources in South Africa, the question is raised as to whether there is an absolute limit to water, or whether water management or water conservation is at issue, as in the case example of the Transkei. What is economical reflects political decisions about national priorities when consideration is given to alternative strategies for increasing the water supply, or solving pollution problems. The potential to feed South Africans is substantiated, and the problems of maldistribution identified. In establishing the balance between family planning and development, the Population Development Program (PDP) expresses contradictory aims; i.e., seeking community involvement of a politically disenfranchised population. The concept of overpopulation and the application of population control programs in South Africa does not address the problems of poverty and powerlessness.     

深圳市住房及房改中存在的问题及对策

1988年6月10日，深圳市正式颁布了《深圳特区住房制度改革方案》，同年10月1日正式实施。从此结束了沿袭了我国“财政包干、低租金、福利制”的住房旧体制，建立了以“补贴提租、鼓励买房、建立基金、新房新政策、住宅区管理社会……     

从政策机制上寻求反城镇贫困的突破口——“以人为本”解决城镇贫困问题的政策思路

贫困既是一个世界性的问题,也是长期困扰我国经济发展和社会稳定的一个历史性问题。随着经济体制的转型及经济增长方式的转变,城镇出现的新的贫困化已成为一个不容置疑的事实。在党的十六届三中全会上通过的《中共中央关于完善社会主义市场经济体制若干问题的决定》(以下简称《     

农村集体所有制土地房地产经营的利益分配:理论分析及政策建议

随着房地产经济的不断发展和中国城市化进程的不断推进,农村集体所有制土地正在不断地参与到房地产经济中来,向非农化转变。在这一转变过程中,农用地的潜在经济价值得到了开发,创造了财富。但是在现实情况中,农民作为土地使用权的所有者在出让了土地使用权后并没有因为土地开发     

The housing question in three dimensions

Topical socioeconomic problems of housing policy, housing construction, and housing and communal services are considered.     

为公租房喝彩

2011年1月25日,中央电视台播出了一条两分钟的短新闻：《上海：在集体的土地上建公租房》。 该新闻说：“中国要建公租房,可建设公租房也并非易事,一要地,二要钱。投资大,利润低,回收资金慢。很难吸引企业来投资。     

The long-run effects of housing location on travel behavior: Evidence from China's housing reform

Many cities in developing countries are experiencing rapid urbanization along with deteriorating traffic congestion and air quality, so it is important to understand what affects travel demand in developing countries. In this paper, we study how housing location affects travel behavior in Beijing, a city in a developing country. We use subsidized housing as a source of variation for housing location—individuals in subsidized housing live much closer to the city center than individuals in the control group. We exploit a change in the eligibility for subsidized housing generated by China's housing reforms to address the potential endogeneity of subsidized housing. We find that subsidized housing substantially reduces distances traveled for commuting and discretionary trips and that subsidized individuals are less likely to drive but have similar rates of automobile ownership. The results suggest that housing location can have long-lasting effects on travel behavior and automobile use in a developing country. We discuss policy implications of these findings.     

保障性住房财政担得起

一提到保障性住房，许多人就会表达这样一个观点：现行的财政无力承担起足够的保障性住房供应。正是由于这种理论作为支撑，使得一些地方政府在保障性住房的建设和供应方面，消极懈怠。     

美国农业保护政策对我国的启示

美国农业从一个自级自足的原始产业发展成为高度集约化、高度商业化的基础产业。在这个发展过程中,政府的保护措施发展了很大的作用。本文对美国的农业保护政策进行了深入的探讨,进而提出我国发展农业生产、保护农业的几点建议。     

Innovation centres: The policy options for local authorities

Over the last few years a growing number of local authorities have set up Innovation Centres (ICs) as part of their repertoire of initiatives aimed at local economic regeneration. According to the recently formed Association of Innovation Centre Executives, ICs exist to provide assistance to both individuals and small firms with the creation and development of new and improved products and processes which can demonstrate market potential. Yet a review of the experience of ICs to date reveals that there is no standard model of an IC that can be taken off the shelf. Roger Leigh and David North seek to clarify the various options and choices that are available to a local authority contemplating setting up an IC, using information and insights gained from a series of interviews with IC managers carried out in 1985.