World public debt and real interest rates

Real interest rates appear to have risen in virtually all industrializedcountries in the 1980s and 1990s relative to levels that prevailedin earlier decades. There is concern that this may reflect higherpublic debt, which is crowding out private-sector activity.There has also been increasing international capital marketintegration, implying that interest rates in any country maybe sensitive to global fiscal developments. This paper estimatesthe effects of such fiscal developments on real interest ratesin nine industrial countries. The results imply that the increasein OECD-wide government debt since the late 1970s was a majorfactor in the rise in real interest rates.     

The impact of terrorism on public debt in African countries

Given the increase in the number of terrorist attacks in African countries, a better understanding of the relationship between terrorism, the informal economy and public debt is essential for policymakers. The model is empirically tested for 47 countries during the period 1996–2015. We use ordinary least squares (OLS), random effects (ER) and system generalized method of moments (GMM). Three terrorism indicators are used: the uncertain, the domestic, and the transnational. The results confirm that the rise in terrorism and the informal economy lead to an increase in public debt. The results also show that the informal economy magnifies the effect of terrorism on public debt. In addition, the results suggest that a larger informal economy reduces income taxes and therefore increases public debt and the increase in public spending reinforces the effects of terrorism on public debt. The reduction of terrorism should therefore be governments’ primary political objective. Given the detected complementarity between terrorism and the informal economy, the reduction of terrorism would also reduce the size of the informal economy and the public debt. The reduction of terrorism will also minimize the harmful effects of terrorism on public debt through public spending.     

Restructuring Indonesia's sub-national public debt: reform or reversion?

Borrowing can be an efficient way for sub-national governments to acquire capital assets, but it also carries risks of fiscal distress and insolvency for borrowers. To minimise these risks, many governments around the world have developed ex-post insolvency remedies, including, most importantly, debt-restructuring mechanisms. In an effort to resurrect borrowing for local infrastructure development, the Indonesian government has designed and begun to implement debt-restructuring programs for sub-national government and sub-national government-owned water supply company defaulters. These programs constitute a major effort to reform an important, long-neglected and problematic aspect of sub-national public finances in Indonesia. There are a number of potential difficulties with the design and execution of the reforms, however, which collectively do not inspire much optimism for rapid progress in reviving financial flows to the sub-national public sector. Still, even halting advances in debt restructuring can substantially increase local infrastructure investment in the long run.     

Factor mobility, government debt and the decline in public investment

This paper aims at explaining the declining level of public investment in OECD countries. The theoretical framework hints to the relevance of a number of demand and supply factors—ranging from the yield of public investment to institutions like the EU deficit limits. The econometric results indicate that the decline is due to three developments: first to the increase in the public capital stock; second to the pile-up of public debt which has restricted the ability to finance new investment; and third to the increasing mobility of factors adding to the financing difficulties. In contrast to that neither the privatisation process nor EU deficit restrictions of the Maastricht Treaty have a robustly significant impact.

论一般债权质权的设立要件与公示要件

通过对动产质押的交付及不动产抵押的登记进行分析,再对各国立法例和理论界观点进行探讨,得出了权利设立所需具备的条件。接着将分析的结论运用于一般债权质权中,分别对债权证书的交付、通知第三债务人和登记进行分析,得出一般债权质权应如何设立和公示,以解决一般债权质权公示性差和不利于保护交易安全的问题。     

Optimal government investment and public debt in an economic growth model

This paper establishes a nonlinear theoretical model and uses panel smoothing transitional regression to study the optimal levels of government investment and public debt in a growth model using a panel dataset of 65 developed and developing economies over the period 1991–2014. The empirical results show that the effect of government investment on economic growth is decreasing as the level of expenditure rises. When the government investment/GDP ratio reaches a certain point (threshold), the effect of government investment could change from positive to negative. The effect of public debt on economic growth demonstrates a similar pattern. Our results suggest that there must exist an optimal level of government investment or public debt as far as economic growth is concerned, although the optimal level may vary in different economies. The government investment/GDP and public debt/GDP ratios of China were respectively 15.66% and 41.14% in 2014. These levels did not reach their respective thresholds and hence their effects on economic growth were still in the positive territory. Despite the expansion of government investment and public debt in China after the world financial crisis, their scales had not affected the country's economic growth during the data period.     

The (UN)importance of public debt: A review essay

Summary In this article the debate on the consequences of the creation and existence of government debt is reviewed, using two recent books as a guideline. Four issues in particular are discussed: the correct definition and measurement of government debt, the discussion on the (in)effectiveness of fiscal policy, the inflationary consequences of public debt and finally the influence of government deficits on financial markets. It follows from our review of the debate that there exists as yet no consensus among economists on these issues.The author would like to thank Professor S.K. Kuipers, Professor J. Pen, Dr. C.G.M. Sterks and Professor J. Weitenberg for their comments on an earlier version of this paper.     

The choice of financing with public debt versus private debt: New evidence from Japan after critical binding regulations were removed

The complete removal of binding regulatory constraints on bond issuance till 1993 provides an opportunity ripe enough to test hypotheses on the choice of financing with public debt and bank debt, comparing with the partial deregulation of Japanese financial markets in the late 1980s. Regardless of further deregulation, there is a U-turning to bank debt in Japan's corporate financing as the 1990s’ recession prolonging. In particular, we find high quality Japanese firms leave banks to the bond market, while low quality firms U-turn to bank debt. We also provide new evidence that Japanese banks tend to lend loans to wealthy firms. Because of a shift from equity-linked bond to straight bond during 1993–1997, our study provides a complement to evidence on financing choices of equity-linked public debt versus bank debt with the late 1980s’ bull stock market.     

Corporate governance and the cost of public debt financing: Evidence from Japan

This paper explores the relationship between corporate governance mechanisms and the cost of public debt financing in Japan. Using a sample of corporate bonds newly issued in Japan during the period 2005–2008, I find that CEO ownership is associated with higher yield spreads after controlling for other governance, bond, and firm characteristics. Founding family ownership is also positively related to yield spreads. In contrast, firms with large corporate shareholders enjoy lower yield spreads. These results are robust to various alternative specifications. Overall, my results indicate the importance of corporate governance mechanisms in Japanese corporate bond markets.     

Determinants of direct cross-border public procurement in EU Member States

The aim of this paper is to analyse the determinants of direct cross-border public procurement in the EU Member States. For this purpose, we use a unique dataset based on data published on Tenders Electronic Daily which covers public procurement contract award notices for the 2008–2012 period and consists of more than 30 variables. Among others, results of the econometric estimation suggest that the probability of awarding a contract cross-border depends positively on the value of the contract and negatively on the number of bids. Among awarding country characteristics, GDP per capita and trade-to-GDP ratio are found to positively impact the probability of a cross-border award. Our results also provide econometric evidence for predictions from the economic theory. We make the case for the importance of product market regulation indicators used as proxies for anticompetitive practices, such as regulatory protection of incumbent firms and barriers to foreign direct investment, as well as the scope of public enterprises, and show that they have a significant negative impact on the probability of a cross-border win.     

Determinants of public health in Arctic and Subarctic territories of Russia

The paper discusses major economic risks for public health, including average income and income differentiation, living conditions, and public healthcare availability in the northern regions of the Russian Federation compared to the nationwide average.     

Sustainability of public debt: evidence from Japan before the Second World War1

Japan defaulted on its public debt after the Second World War. This article addresses the question of how Japan lost its ability to sustain its public debt. We explore the sustainability of public debt in Japan before the War. We conduct statistical tests for the relationship between public debt and primary fiscal balance, and find that Japanese public debt was sustainable until 1931, and unsustainable in and after 1932. Narrative modes of analysis indicate that Japan lost its fiscal discipline because of the military's effective veto over budgetary processes and because of the absence of pressure for sound fiscal policy from international financial markets.     

Sustainability of the fiscal imbalance and public debt under fiscal policy asymmetries in Sri Lanka

This paper investigates the sustainability of Sri Lanka’s fiscal imbalance and public debt. To test for sustainability of the fiscal imbalance, the study applies a symmetric ARDL (autoregressive distributive lag) technique to estimate a government intertemporal budget constraint. And to test for sustainability of public debt, it applies an asymmetric ARDL technique to estimate a fiscal reaction function, which allows for differential responses in the primary budget balance depending on whether shocks to regressors are positive or negative. Annual data for the period 1961–2018 are used in the estimations. The results indicate that Sri Lanka’s fiscal management is inconsistent with strong form sustainability, which requires that expenditures not grow faster than revenues. However, estimation of the fiscal reaction function finds robust evidence for fiscal policy asymmetries. Evidence emerges that Sri Lanka’s fiscal policy stance is procyclical with strong stabilization tendencies in economic expansions that are not sustained in contractions. Against upsurges in the debt-to-GDP ratio, authorities are found to pursue fiscal consolidation, thus suggesting weak form sustainability.     

Investment penetration in manufacturing and extraction and external public debt in Third World states

This research examines the contention that foreign investment is positively related to external public debt accumulation by Third World states. Three hypotheses are examined: (1) that flows of foreign investment are negatively related to increased debt over the short-run; (2) that stocks of foreign investments are positively related over the long-run and (3) that the effects of foreign investment should differ according to their sectoral location, with higher investments in manufacturing producing greater borrowing, and investments in extraction being unrelated to debt accumulation. The results show that stocks of investments in manufacturing are strongly related to borrowing only among American states, with the effects being immediate, and not long-term. Only African states were affected by flows, with these effects being long-term and positive. Extraction investments were not related to debt accumulation. These findings indicate that the mechanism by which foreign investments affect debt accumulation varies from region to region. The repatriation of profits and local borrowing by foreigners appears to have the greatest impact among American states, while attempts to maintain foreign-induced growth is the key effect in Africa.     

Sub-Saharan Africa's rising public debt stock: Is there a cause for concern?

The study investigated public debt sustainability in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) by testing the reaction of the primary balance to positive and negative shocks in public debts in a panel of 45 SSA countries. The study adopts the innovative nonlinear fiscal reaction function and the dynamic panel threshold model to account for the potential asymmetric phenomenon in the public debt series. In line with extant studies, the study found that public debts in SSA are weakly sustainable and there is a highly procyclical fiscal policy bias in SSA countries, particularly in resource-rich countries, indicating that governments' fiscal policy responses are expansionary during economic upturns and contractionary during recessions, which may aggravate recessions and worsen debt situations across SSA. For robustness, the study compares the results with emerging and developed economies. The results indicate that in advanced economies, public debt is sustainable and that fiscal policy response is countercyclical. The research and policy implications are discussed.     

Fiscal deficits, public debt, and government solvency: Evidence from OECD countries

This paper discusses different empirical tests of public sector solvency and applies them to a sample of 18 OECD countries. Under the maintained hypothesis that the government solvency constraint needs to be imposed, these tests develop from the idea of verifying whether the intertemporal budget constraint of the public sector would be satisfied (a) if the fiscal and financial policy in the sample had been pursued indefinitely and (b) if the relevant macro and structural features of the economy were stable over time. If solvency is not supported by the empirical evidence, a change either in the policy or in the relevant macro and structural variables (growth, inflation, interest rates, demographic factors) must occur at some point in the future. Among the G-7 countries, public sector solvency seems a serious issue in Italy, whereas it does not appear to be a problem in Germany and Japan. The evidence for the United States is mixed. Problems of sustainability of the current path of fiscal policies are also present in Belgium, Ireland, The Netherlands, and Greece.     

事业单位基本养老保险隐性债务精算模型及实证分析

文章主要在界定事业单位基本养老保险改革中的"老人""中人"及"新人"的基础上,对事业单位在职人员数量、年龄结构、工资水平以及离退休人员数量、养老金水平等数据资料进行分析,加入了工资增长率等因素,根据测算时点与改革时点的差异,构建了事业单位基本养老保险隐性债务精算模型,并以H大学为例对其规模进行测算分析。文章最后对隐性债务的处理进行了思考。     

Livelihood and care of the elderly: Determinants of public attitudes in Japan

This study analyses public attitudes towards the degree of government involvement in ensuring the livelihood and care of the elderly in Japan. Using four waves of individual-level annual data from the Japanese General Social Survey collected over the period 2000-2005, we estimate ordered logit models with various explanatory variables based on the socio-demographic, economic, political, and social background of the respondents. Many significant factors are common for both livelihood and care specifications, their effects being qualitatively the same and in line with our prior expectations. The estimation results also show positive coefficients of year intercept dummies, implying an increase in support of a government-based system over time. Further investigation shows that this trend is caused by those who favour government redistribution policies becoming increasingly more consistent in their support for a government-based social security system in Japan.     

管理人员的综合测评方法研究

随着国债规模的扩大和国债政策市场化、长期化趋势的确立 ,优化国债融资成本的迫切性日益突出。针对我国国债市场的非市场化结构特征 ,我们提出以市场化为核心的优化国债市场结构和筹资成本的思路 ,并通过理论与实证分析相结合的方法探讨优化国债融资成本的较佳途径