长株潭核心区土地利用变化时空格局及驱动力多维分析

以长株潭城市群中开发强度最大的长株潭核心区作为研究对象,利用GIS和计量分析工具分析长株潭核心区2000—2018年土地利用变化的时空特征,从自然环境、区位交通、经济发展、政策导向、产业驱动、人口增长等六大维度,以及城市交互作用等方面研究土地利用变化驱动机制,采用Logistic回归模型探究各地类变化的驱动因子,研究结果表明:(1)2000—2018年,耕地减少324.96 km2、林地减少855.47 km2,建设用地增长1 161.87 km2,草地与水体面积总体保持稳定并略有变动。(2)2000—2008与2008—2018年两期耕地、林地、建设用地变化驱动因子存在较大差异。(3)自然环境(DEM、河流水系)是耕地、林地和建设用地变化的基础条件,从根本上决定着三种地类变化的空间形态;区位交通中公路、铁路等交通网络的延伸,扩大了三种地类变化的范围;经济发展、政策导向、产业发展、人口增长加快了三种地类变化的速度。(4)城市交互作用强度有效反映了各种地类变化,特别是建设用地变化的趋势,这表明城市交互作用强度是除六大维度外的第七大影响因素。     

烟台地区耕地资源态势及宏观驱动力研究

利用改革开放20多年来烟台地区耕地统计资料和近5年土地详查与变更数据,研究揭示了该区耕地资源利用与变化的基本特征,耕地数量变化的基本过程、空间差异及耕地流向,初步探讨了耕地数量变化的主要驱动因子及其影响机制,得出以下结论：①20多年来,烟台地区耕地数量呈明显的波动减少趋势,经历了缓慢减少一急剧减少一缓慢减少的变化过程,并在1985年前后、1987—1990年和1991—1993年出现了3次明显的耕地流失高峰;②耕地的主要流向是工矿用地、居民点和各类交通用地以及果园,耕地的增加主要是未利用土地的开垦和工矿用地的整理与复垦;③经济发展、人口增长和政策是耕地面积变化的主要宏观驱动因子,耕地数量变化过程中的明显突变与国家宏观政策背景相关联,耕地快速减少在发生时间上与经济的过热增长基本同步,在空间分布上与地区经济发展速度和水平的差异相一致;此外,人口增加对耕地减少的驱动也不可忽视。     

基于ESDA-GWR多变量影响的经济空间格局演化——以长江中游城市群为例

以长江中游城市群41个地域空间单元2000—2012年社会经济数据为基础,运用探索性数据分析(ESDA)及地理加权回归(GWR)等空间计量经济学方法,研究了多变量影响下长江中游城市群经济空间格局演化驱动机理。研究发现:1长江中游城市群区域经济发展水平空间格局总体上表现为地区之间较强的负相关性,经济发展异质性较强,差异性显著;2产业结构与生产率、地区经济效益、科技与教育投入在空间上具有正相关性;对外开放程度在空间上具有微弱的负相关性;发展成本呈现随机排列态势,不具有地理空间上的相关性。3多数变量演化过程大致相似,但不同的时段在不同的局部各有差异。产业结构升级对长江中游城市群区域经济产生的影响范围逐渐由武汉城市圈向外围扩大,地区经济效益对长株潭城市群影响程度及范围逐渐扩大,对外开放程度对武汉城市圈经济发展影响程度最大,科技与教育投入对经济发展的影响由环鄱阳湖生态经济区—长株潭城市群—武汉城市圈逐渐减弱,武汉城市圈经济发展对资源依赖程度有减弱趋势,而长株潭城市群和环鄱阳湖生态经济区经济发展受资源约束程度相对较小。     

天津市耕地资源态势及其相关社会经济驱动因素

从天津市50多年长序列耕地统计和土地调查资料,分析其耕地资源数量动态变化趋势、利用特征,探讨耕地资源数量变化的社会经济驱动因子及其影响机制。研究表明:1949年以来,天津市耕地资源数量在波动变化中呈减少趋势;人均耕地减少,耕地集约利用程度不断提高;部分地区耕地质量下降,耕地后备资源匮乏。人口增长、经济发展、城市化、相关政策和比较经济利益等因素,对耕地资源数量变动的驱动作用非常明显。     

环长株潭城市群城际空间联系演化分析

探究城市群空间联系格局演变不仅有助于揭示城市空间发展特征,也可为城市群空间结构优化、区域经济社会协同发展提供科学依据。文章以环长株潭城市群为例,基于时序全局主成分分析法评估城市发展质量,采用修正距离要素的引力和潜力模型量化城市群的发展状况以及空间联系作用,综合运用ArcGIS的反距离插值法和重心转移曲线分析2005—2019年环长株潭城市群的8个城市空间联系的时空分异及演化趋势。结果表明：(1)2005—2019年环长株潭城市群城市联系作用总体呈稳定增长态势,存在“中部高、西部低”的强度差异;(2)2005—2019年环长株潭潜力重心总体上的移动方向为由西北向东南移动,但潜力重心偏移角度小,且相对接近几何中心,表明城市之间的空间相互作用保持均衡稳定性发展;(3)环长株潭城市群总体已形成长沙—株洲—湘潭三角结构的强联系区域,与外围城市的空间联系偏弱。应统筹优化区域发展格局,形成较完备的城市群体系,进一步优化资源配置,加快城市群综合交通基础设施网络建设,创新一体化合作机制,加快城市全面提质发展,提升城市群整体实力。     

基于空间场能的江苏省行政区划变迁与优化策略

基于城市能级指数、空间场能模型等方法,定量分析了1993—2013年江苏省的行政区划变迁。结果表明:1993—2013年,城市总量持续减少,地级市有所增加,县级市数量先增后减,县的数量则呈逐年减少的态势,市辖区数量则逐年递增;1993—2003年,行政区划调整以撤县设区为主,2003—2013年间,行政区划调整以撤市设区为主;江苏省城市空间场能变化较大,经历了前期的"极核化"和后期的"分散化"两个阶段;江苏省行政区划问题突出集中在南京—镇江(句容)、常州—镇江(丹阳)、常州—无锡(宜兴)、泰州—扬州区域。     

湖南农村沼气发展的时空变异及驱动因子研究

以2009—2012年湖南省各市州农村户用沼气发展水平数据为研究对象,运用变异系数、泰尔指数、相对变化率及因子分析方法,借助Stata和GIS软件,研究湖南不同市州沼气发展的时空变异特征及其驱动因子。结果显示:①湖南沼气池保有总量和农村人均沼气池保有量均呈稳步增长态势;②永州市、益阳市沼气池保有量相对变化率较高,而长沙市、湘潭市沼气池保有量相对变化率很小;③湖南各市州沼气池保有量的空间差异呈逐年缩小态势;④影响各市州沼气发展空间变异的主导影响因子是规模因子、成本因子和速度因子。     

长江中游经济区县域经济差异时空演变

以人均GDP为测度指标,采用传统统计学和ESDA相结合的方法,对2001—2010年长江中游经济区县域经济差异的时空特征进行了分析,并用多元线性回归分析对影响因子进行了初步探讨。结果表明:①经济区绝对差异持续扩大,相对差异呈"M"型变化;武汉城市圈、环长株潭城市群内部差异是经济区差异的主要贡献者;GlobalMoran’s I指数为正,县域经济空间相关性波动式减弱。②高水平县域有所增加,主要集中于省会城市下辖县域、地市市区或县级市;县域经济发展水平南北差异明显;县域经济呈现出两级"中心—边缘"的空间结构。③多元线性回归分析表明:经济基础因子对经济差异影响最大,行政因子、工业化因子分居二、三位,市场因子影响最小。     

近50年湖南省耕地数量动态变化研究

湖南省是全国的农业大省之一,在全国农业发展格局中具有举足轻重的地位,其耕地数量的变化直接影响到全省乃至全国的粮食安全态势。文章利用1949-1999年的统计和普查数据,分析了湖南省近50年来耕地数量动态变化及地域差异,并进一步探讨了影响耕地动态变化的驱动因子。结果表明：50年来,湖南省耕地总体呈逐年下降态势,且区域变化差异明显;其中经济发展、社会系统和科技进步构成了耕地数量变化的主要驱动因子。     

哈长城市群县(市)高质量发展的时空演变与驱动力研究

县（市）高质量发展是新型城镇化的重要目标,是全面建设社会主义现代化国家的重要支撑。文章以哈长城市群63个县（市）为研究区域,从创新、协调、绿色、开放、共享五大维度构建指标体系,综合运用高质量发展测度模型、地理探测器等方法对2010—2019年哈长城市群县（市）高质量发展的动态演变与驱动力进行研究,得出如下结论：(1)2010—2019年哈长城市群县（市）高质量发展水平较低,五大维度均呈现出不同程度的下降态势,其中,创新驱动、协调有序、开放程度与共享繁荣四大维度呈波动下降态势,绿色发展维度呈“U型”发展趋势。在哈长城市群内属于黑龙江省的37个县（市）地区中,创新驱动、协调有序与共享繁荣维度均呈现下降趋势,绿色发展与开放程度维度则呈“U型”发展态势。在哈长城市群内属于吉林省的26个县（市）中,协调有序与共享繁荣维度呈持续下降趋势,创新驱动与绿色发展维度呈“U型”发展态势,开放程度维度呈先升后降的“倒U型”曲线。(2)哈长城市群县（市）高质量发展空间分异性显著,呈现团块式、圈层式的格局特征,县（市）高质量发展水平较高地区主要以块状形式分布在哈长城市群的西北及东南地区,高质量发展水平较低区域主...     

Pleasure and belief in Hume's Decision Process

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to introduce explicitly pleasure and belief in what aims at being a Humean theory of decision, like the one developed in Diaye and Lapidus (2005a). Although we support the idea that Hume was in some way a hedonist – evidently different from Bentham's or Jevons' way – we lay emphasis less on continuity than on the specific kind of hedonism encountered in Hume's writings (chiefly the Treatise, the second Enquiry, the Dissertation, or some of his Essays). Such hedonism clearly contrasts to its standard modern inheritance, expressed by the relation between preferences and utility.

The reason for such a difference with the usual approach lies in the mental process that Hume puts to the fore in order to explain the way pleasure determines desires and volition. Whereas pleasure is primarily, in Hume's words, an impression of sensation, it takes place in the birth of passions as reflecting an idea of pleasure, whose “force and vivacity” is precisely a “belief”, transferred to the direct passions of desire or volition that come immediately before action. As a result, from a Humean point of view, “belief” deals with decision under risk or uncertainty, as well as with intertemporal decision and indiscrimination problems.

The latter are explored within a formal framework, and it is shown that the relation of pleasure is transformed by belief into a non-empty class of relations of desire, among which at least one is a preorder.     

John Stuart Mill's Theory Of Justice

John Stuart Mill has traditionally been portrayed as self-contradictory and failing to construct a unified social theory. Recent scholarship, however, has challenged this view, finding Mill's work to be creatively synthetic in bridging the antinomies inherent in liberal democratic thought. This revisionist interpretation of Mill is advanced by an understanding of his theory of justice and its role in shaping his policy positions on issues such as welfare, education, voting rights, property rights, taxation, government intervention, and the future of capitalism.     

A Rich Vein for “Reality Mining”北大核心CSSCISSCI

Arik Hesseldahl In the aftermath of the September 11 attacks, U.S. officials quickly turned their attention to other potential targets, including California's Golden Gate Bridge. What would happen if terrorists took down the bridge between San Francisco and Marin County? How much of the region would be affected and for how long?     

Globalization,Neoliberalism and the attack on social security

Neoliberal political movements advocate privatization of public pension systems. Globalization imposes pressure on nations to conform to neoliberal policy views with respect to the design and structure of social insurance, including public pension systems. The paper begins with an investigation of the economic, ethical and ideological dimensions of the privatization debates in the U.S.; it argues that privatization advocates may be largely moved by ideology, since the other reasons advanced appear weak or unfounded. The second part discusses the history of Social Security, the purposes for its creation, and some of its economic effects. Differences between public and private pension systems are considered. A brief international comparison of some aspects of public pension system finance and benefit structures is presented. The final section considers the ethical, macroeconomic and distributional implications of privatization, prefunding and payroll tax funding, and argues for a pay as you go system financed with income taxes. In order to promote equity, economic security, community, and social cohesion, public pension systems should be universal in coverage. In order to reduce the inequality, income insecurity, and aged poverty generated by market economies, public pension systems ought to be progressive: benefit/contribution ratios should be inversely proportional to income, and progressive income taxes should finance the system. To promote economic growth, the systems should be financed on a pay-as-you-go basis, and should not be prefunded except for an emergency reserve. The fiscal policy recommendations partially depend upon the theory developed by Abba Lerner in the 1940s, and recently advanced by Wynne Godley and Randy Wray: Lerner's “principle of functional finance.”     

中国养活自己能力的长期预测:技术和政策分析

中国拥有世界五分之一强的人口 ,收入又在迅速增长。因此 ,国际上很自然地会考虑或推测她在今后的几十年是否有能力养活自己。中国的人口预计将从 2 0 0 0年的 1 2 8亿增长到 2 0 2 0年的 1 4 6亿 ,和 2 0 3 0年的 1 4 9亿。与此同时 ,人均收入的增长将导致对家畜和鱼类产品更大的需求 ,因而对饲料的需求也将有很大的增长     

Perspective on the Economic Evolution of the European Union States Under the Impact of the Pandemic and Financial-Economic Crisis

The European Union,which is at the beginning of its term of office for all Member States in the European Parliament,the European Commission,its governing body a...     

John Stuart Mill's Theories of Wealth and Income Distribution

Although he was much influenced by David Ricardo when he wrote the classical part of his Principles , John Stuart Mill was not a Ricardian when he penned his theories of wealth and distribution. They are based on a triple foundation. First, a belief that economics is a moral discipline. Second a theory of custom-driven human behavior. Third, an empirically formed conviction that the institutions of state, education and business cooperate to structure the distribution of income. On the basis of these presuppositions, Mill formulated 1) an institutional theory of the formation of human and non-human wealth and 2) an even more institutional theory of distribution demonstrating how the aforementioned institutions malignantly skew the distribution of income to the advantage of the propertied classes and to the extreme disadvantage of the working class. As a social economist, Mill recommended institutional reforms designed to eradicate the poverty of the working class.     

Forecasting the price of gold

This article seeks to evaluate the appropriateness of a variety of existing forecasting techniques (17 methods) at providing accurate and statistically significant forecasts for gold price. We report the results from the nine most competitive techniques. Special consideration is given to the ability of these techniques to provide forecasts which outperforms the random walk (RW) as we noticed that certain multivariate models (which included prices of silver, platinum, palladium and rhodium, besides gold) were also unable to outperform the RW in this case. Interestingly, the results show that none of the forecasting techniques are able to outperform the RW at horizons of 1 and 9 steps ahead, and on average, the exponential smoothing model is seen providing the best forecasts in terms of the lowest root mean squared error over the 24-month forecasting horizons. Moreover, we find that the univariate models used in this article are able to outperform the Bayesian autoregression and Bayesian vector autoregressive models, with exponential smoothing reporting statistically significant results in comparison with the former models, and classical autoregressive and the vector autoregressive models in most cases.     

Toward a Phylogenetic Reconstruction of Organizational Life

Synopsis Classification is an important activity that facilitates theory development in many academic disciplines. Scholars in fields such as organizational science, management science and economics and have long recognized that classification offers an approach for ordering and understanding the diversity of organizational taxa (groups of one or more similar organizational entities). However, even the most prominent organizational classifications have limited utility, as they tend to be shaped by a specific research bias, inadequate units of analysis and a standard neoclassical economic view that does not naturally accommodate the disequilibrium dynamics of modern competition. The result is a relatively large number of individual and unconnected organizational classifications, which tend to ignore the processes of change responsible for organizational diversity. Collectively they fail to provide any sort of universal system for ordering, compiling and presenting knowledge on organizational diversity. This paper has two purposes. First, it reviews the general status of the major theoretical approaches to biological and organizational classification and compares the methods and resulting classifications derived from each approach. Definitions of key terms and a discussion on the three principal schools of biological classification (evolutionary systematics, phenetics and cladistics) are included in this review. Second, this paper aims to encourage critical thinking and debate about the use of the cladistic classification approach for inferring and representing the historical relationships underpinning organizational diversity. This involves examining the feasibility of applying the logic of common ancestry to populations of organizations. Consequently, this paper is exploratory and preparatory in style, with illustrations and assertions concerning the study and classification of organizational diversity.