Uncertain regulatory timing and market dynamics

Using a dynamic model of capacity accumulation, I examine the relationship between uncertainty about the timing of a new Pigouvian tax and oligopolistic competition. I find that for some market structures uncertainty about the timing of the regulatory change leads firms to increase investment. These results stem from the nature of the uncertainty and its interaction with firms' strategic incentive to engage in capacity races. They dramatize the importance of accounting for initial conditions when forecasting firms' reactions to anticipated regulatory changes. In addition, I find that more protracted uncertainty leads to greater welfare costs.     

举足轻重的日本市场

据行业2005年底统计数据显示，纺织行业出口市场首位是美国、其次为A本。在2005年逾千亿美元的出口创汇中．对日本出口金额为16632亿美元，同比增长605％， 在来自美欧及部分发展中国家针对中国纺织品出口贸易不断产生摩擦的形势下，A本仍然始终保持对中国纺织品的较高需求．不能不引起人们的注意，一方面对日本纺织品市场需求充分了解分析有利于企业有针对性地做出相应的反应。另一方面也要保持充分的冷静，避免在中目纺织品贸易问题上重蹈摩擦覆辙。     

Patterns of market research timing for new industrial products

The importance of market research to new industrial product ventures has been widely noted, and some evidence has suggested that failure of managers to carry out effective research can increase the probability of new product failure. In planning for market research, a problem facing managers is when market research should be done during the new product development process. In this study, patterns of timing of market research resource expenditures in 112 industrial new product situations were measured, and differences in these patterns related to seven major situational characteristics, marketing task similarity, distribution complexity, competitive advantage, buyer risk, development complexity, project downsides and project payoffs.
Data analysis using MDA revealed significant differences between the patterns of research timing in different new product situations, and related these differences most strongly to marketing task similarity, competitive advantage, and buyer risk. The findings have important implications for managers involved in planning market research activities and resource allocations in new industrial product situations.     

2015年日印韩石油市场特点

2015年,受经济低迷及核电站重启影响,日本石油需求量进一步萎缩,炼厂加工量和原油进口量都降至20年来的最低水平.在经济增长和低油价的驱动下,印度石油需求量大幅攀升,超越日本成为全球第三大石油消费国.为满足日益增长的国内需求,印度油品出口量有所下滑.韩国的石油需求量和原油进口量创下历史新高,较高的炼油毛利支撑韩国炼油商保持较高的开工率,并不断扩大油品出口,使韩国超越印度成为亚洲最大的油品出口国.日本炼油能力萎缩和印度油品出口削减为中国扩大成品油出口提供了契机;日本、印度两国规范炼油业、取消行业补贴等举措以及韩国炼油商极其灵活的经营策略都为中国炼油业和炼油商提供了借鉴.     

The timing of market entry and firm performance: A perspective of institutional theory

Integrating literature from institutional theory with that from market entry research, we study the effects of a firm's early marketing entry on other firms' behaviors and performances. In addition, we also consider the moderating effect of other institutional factors, such as the firms' home-country culture and institutional environments in an emerging economy. Based on a review of all the relevant research, we develop a theoretical model with testable hypotheses. With empirical data from multi-national enterprises (MNEs) competing in China's insurance-service market, we test the hypotheses. Our data analyses show evidence that, other things being equal, early market entry can cause institutional imitation, in terms of market diversification, among imitators. At the same time, the imitation can be moderated by the home-country culture of the MNEs. In addition, the imitation of early market entry firms has some significant effects on the performance of imitators, including less deviation from the industry norm and better financial performance.     

Some evidence on the gains from international diversification for Canadian investors

It is easily demonstrated ex post that international portfolio diversification results in increased returns and reduced risk. However, to determine the value of international diversification as an effective portfolio management strategy, it is necessary to form portfolios based on information available at the time of their composition, and then evaluate the performance of the portfolio in the following months. This is the main focus of our study, which adds several innovations to past research. First, we use daily rates of return on 23 national indices to evaluate the value of international diversification for a Canadian investor. Second, we evaluate the predictive value of the historical variance-covariance matrix vis-à-vis alternative models. Third, we use the Bayes-Stein correction to reduce errors in the historical return vector. Finally, we use a quadratic programming model in order to introduce the effects of constraints on the optimisation process. The results, obtained over the 1986–1989 period, are not in favour of international diversification. Returns on diversified portfolios were often lower than returns on the low-risk Canada market during the low-performance portfolio test periods. In other cases, higher returns on diversified portfolios could not be justified by their higher volatility. It is possible that these results may be partially due to the effects of the market crash in October 1987. Nevertheless, our study brings up many directions for future research. Is international diversification in fact profitable? Is portfolio optimisation appropriate in an international context? Finally, what is the best way to estimate the expected return vector in various markets?     

从教训中思考中国棉花市场

2003/2004年度棉花市场剧烈的波动相信使每一个棉花市场的参与者都刻骨铭心,大多数人可能都是一场痛苦的经历.但痛定思痛,需要有所感悟.下面是我本人对中国棉花市场的几点思考,提出来供大家参考.     

New gains in the fight against pain

Thanks to recent research, millions dogged by chronic pain are finding hope. One surprise: Surgery patients should give themselves painkillers whenever they need them.     

User benefits and operator costs of mobile number portability in Japan and impact on market competitiveness

This paper aims to review the process of mobile phone operators agreeing to introduce mobile number portability (MNP) in Japan. A study group formed by the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications estimated the proportion of MNP users and analyzed the user benefits and associated costs to introduce MNP. Owing to the particular market structure and technology available, MNP was expected to yield a larger benefit in the Japanese mobile market than that seen in other countries. Based on the results of the research reviewed with respect to the market situation one year after introducing MNP, the increased competition in the mobile phone market was onfirmed by decreasing call charges and a reduction in the share of the dominant operator.     

Cotton set to extend gains in China in 2011

Prices hit a record high Any trend follower knows since August of this year prices have been on a tear from wheat to cotton to silver.     

Lessons from the deregulation transition in Chile's local telephony market

There is no experience in the world where entry to local telephony has been as significant as in Chile. This paper addresses two related questions: (i) whether the local telephony segment in Chile is competitive enough so as to deregulate rates and (ii) whether competition thus far achieved could be at risk in the case where asymmetric regulation is ended. The paper suggests that the market is competitive enough, that the regulation mechanism is extremely costly, and that subsidizing entry in order to have infrastructure competition is not necessary. It concludes that deregulation of consumer's rates would be in their own consumers’ interest.     

国开行与浙江省签署千亿金融合作协议

据国家开发银行消息称,国开行与浙江省政府于2月23日签署开发性金融合作协议,将在今后四年内提供不低于1000亿元融资额度,支持浙江省“三个干亿,,工程和重大基础设施建设,以及新农村、     

Trade and invasive species risk mitigation: Reconciling WTO compliance with maximising the gains from trade

This paper analyses the issue of balancing the gains from trade with the risk of pest and disease transference. Two decision frameworks for determining whether or not to permit trade in a potentially invasive species-carrying good are presented. The first considers only the potential production losses resulting from an invasive species entering through a trade pathway, as is prescribed by WTO compliance. The second is a unilateral welfare-maximising approach which considers the consumer gains from trade, the loss of domestic producers’ market share and expected damage from the invasive species. It is shown that these alternative decision frameworks can be reconciled such that they produce the same outcome regarding whether or not trade is to be permitted. The key parameters which influence these decisions are also highlighted.     

日本地震对我国房屋建筑建设的启示

通过对中日地震中的人员伤亡及经济损失情况进行对比,以及对中日两国建筑结构型式及建筑用钢性能进行分析,对我国房屋建筑建设提出几点建议。     

Followers' entry timing: evidence from the Spanish banking sector after deregulation

Much of the literature dedicated to the analysis of entry timing decisions has been devoted to the study of their consequences in terms of performance. However, only a limited amount of effort has been dedicated to analyzing the factors that determine these decisions. In addition, previous papers have centered their efforts on the product dimension, paying no attention to entry into new geographical markets. This paper departs from previous works in this respect and extends the entry timing literature through a consideration of the geographical side of entry. Our analysis shows that organizational size, organizational competence, and organizational experience appear as key factors when explaining the pattern of geographic diversification. Our results also indicate that diversification takes place sequentially, first proceeding to closer locations, then occupying markets further from the origin. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Efficiency gains and myopic antitrust authority in a dynamic merger game

This paper models a sequential merger formation game with endogenous efficiency gains in which every merger has to be submitted for approval to the Antitrust Authority (AA). Two different types of AA are studied: first, a myopic AA, which judges a given merger without considering that subsequent mergers may occur; and, second, a forward looking AA, which anticipates the ultimate market structure a given merger will lead to. By contrasting the decisions of these two types of AA, merger policy implications can be drawn. In particular, the efficiency offence argument does not find any justification under a forward looking AA.     

Fertilizer trade under market liberalization: preliminary evidence from Kenya

This paper reports results of a study aimed at identifying broad demand-side and supply-side influences on trade in inorganic fertilizers in Kenya, where, following decades of government control, the fertilizer market has been fully liberalized. Multiple regression analysis using data from a country-wide survey of fertilizer traders indicates that significant demand-side factors include agroecological conditions and maize market prices in the regions in which fertilizer traders operate. On the supply side, the number of years in fertilizer trading and access to credit are important. Implications for policy and research are drawn.     

由“日本大地震”引发的中国工程可靠性及其管理问题的思考

从日本大地震引出工程可靠性的话题,阐释了可靠性工程、可靠性技术和可靠性管理的涵义及其相互关系;通过具体真实的案例介绍了中国现阶段工程可靠性方面的问题现状,并针对案例进行总体的分析和讨论,指出中国现阶段工程可靠性问题产生的主要原因在于:全民的可靠性意识不强、工程可靠性管理体制不健全、可靠性管理资金不落实、工程可靠性管理理论研究滞后等;强调在中国现阶段,可靠性管理比可靠性技术更加需要引起重视,加强可靠性管理有可能会产生出超预期的效果。