An evolutionary Cournot oligopoly model with imitators and perfect foresight best responders

We consider the competition among quantity setting players in a linear evolutionary environment. To set their outputs, players adopt, alternatively, the best response rule having perfect foresight or an imitative rule. Players are allowed to change their behavior through an evolutionary mechanism according to which the rule with better performance will attract more followers. The relevant stationary state of the model describes a scenario where players produce at the Cournot‐Nash level. Due to the presence of imitative behavior, we find that the number of players and implementation costs, needed to the best response exploitation, have an ambiguous role in determining the stability properties of the equilibrium and double stability thresholds can be observed. Differently, the role of the intensity of choice, representing the evolutionary propensity to switch to the most profitable rule, has a destabilizing role, in line with the common occurrence in evolutionary models. The global analysis of the model reveals that increasing values of the intensity of choice parameter determine increasing dynamic complexities for the internal attractor representing a population where both decision mechanisms coexist.     

基于演化博弈的企业知识型员工激励机制研究

调动知识型员工的积极性、使之在企业发展中发挥更大作用,是现代人力资源管理的重要方面,也是提升企业综合竞争力、实现企业长远发展的关键。文章运用演化博弈理论,建立了以企业以及知识型员工为基本博弈主体的演化博弈模型;通过对演化博弈系统的局部稳定性分析及各因素变量对博弈双方演化行为的影响分析,提出了可能的控制方法。     

EXPLAINING PRIVATE PROVISION OF PUBLIC GOODS BY CONDITIONAL COOPERATION: AN INDIRECT EVOLUTIONARY APPROACH

We adopt an indirect evolutionary approach to investigate whether and when conditional cooperation can explain the voluntary contribution phenomenon often observed in public goods experiments and in real life. Formally, conditional cooperation is captured by a guilt parameter describing how much an individual feels guilty about contributing less than the average. We find that the evolutionary stability of conditional cooperation depends on what is known about the (individual) guilt parameter of other group members.     

Responsible Leadership in Organizational Crises: An Analysis of the Effects of Public Perceptions of Selected SA Business Organizations’ Reputations

??The loss of a stable state?? (Schon 1973) in organizational transformation can both be regarded as lamentable and inevitable. Transformation causes disruption and invasions of comfort zones to those affected by it, but it is nevertheless inevitable. The article maintains that while the loss of a stable state is inevitable in the stream of change confronting organizations today, points of stability and methods of dealing with instability are attainable through responsible management. The article postulates that steps taken by responsible leadership in response to specific business crises will reduce the effects of instabilities brought about by such transformational situations and reassert a stable state more rapidly. Utilizing Weber??s ??ideal type?? model format (Morrison 2006) with a specific example of international best practice of remedial steps taken by management in reaction to a specific crisis experienced by an organization, the article uses a qualitative historical case study analysis and quantitative time series research design to investigate South African firms which had recently faced crises impinging on their current corporate reputations. Findings suggest that both the number of remedial steps taken by companies and the speed in which they are implemented in conformance with the model are negatively associated with the size of the share price falls immediately post crises. The findings also suggest that larger share price appreciations over 6-month post-crises are associated with greater perceived corporate reputations and brand strengths. Tentative conclusions and possibilities for further research are briefly discussed.     

A holonic framework to understand and apply information processes in evolutionary economics: survey and proposal

Economists unsatisfied with the basic neoclassical assumptions of rational economic actors and economic evolution towards equilibrium states founded the evolutionary economic approach. Their goal was to provide more realistic assumptions regarding economic agents and their institutional environments. The Modern Synthesis (MS), the current conceptual paradigm for biological evolution, was used as a source of inspiration for conceptual development. Along the biologically inspired line of thought, the Generalized Darwinism (GD) initiative relies on the abstraction of the MS to provide a unifying conceptual framework for evolutionary economics. Despite its merits, GD has been subject to criticism, particularly regarding its level of abstractness and lack of an explicit account of the social and cognitive processes that drive economic evolution. The goal of this article is to introduce and explore an alternative conceptual framework for evolutionary economics: the Holonic Framework (HF). Contrary to GD, the HF is not biologically inspired, but builds upon the body of literature on the value of digital information networks. We discuss the analytical strengths and limitations of the HF relative to GD in light of several aspects pertinent to evolutionary economics (e.g. self-organization, culture, cognition, cooperation). Finally, by referring to an operationalization of the HF using Eurostat data, we show its practical strengths in comparison to GD.     

Industry Transformation – Conceptual Considerations from an Evolutionary Perspective

The explanandum ‘industry transformation’ is conceptualized against the background of market process theories. A system of indicators to measure industry transformation is set up and typical patterns of development and challenges for entrepreneurial action on business-to-business markets are derived. Analyzing industry transformation requires a co-evolutionary approach. Change is then detected using different indicators, exemplified using the German healthcare sector as an insight to business-to-business markets in transition. Entrepreneurial action is the key to an evolutionary understanding of business systems as drivers of change processes and the fact that – at the same time – they are driven by them. Typical features of industry transformation include historicity, path dependencies, and evolutionary interpretations of specificity leading to trajectories and multiple patterns like for example (dis-/re-)intermediation and cooperation.

构建现代流通体系面临的形势和任务

中国的流通体系经历了机构流通体系、产品流通体系、管理流通体系、水准流通体系的演变过程。构建现代流通体系必须明确“现代”和“体系”的含义,确定四种目标,即提高流通贡献率、降低流通成本、完善流通体制和形成大流通格局。与发达国家相比,中国流通产业的差距是明显的,也说明流通产业可以创造巨大的生产力。今后5￣10年,中国流通业面临着六大挑战与任务,即推进新的流通方式;形成大的流通格局;解决农村双向流通体系;与国际接轨;提高城市流通效率和提升流通业的整体水平。现代商贸物流面临的六大挑战与任务是:推进流通社会化、市场化、专业化、现代化;构建现代商贸物流的总体布局;构建农村双向物流体系;构建易腐食品的冷链物流体系;构建应急物流体系;降低物流费用。     

中国自由贸易区建设:演化历程、特点与趋势

在30年的改革开放过程中,中国先后提出了"市场多元化"、"以质取胜"、"大经贸"和"科技兴贸"等战略,在十七大报告中,中国把自由贸易区建设提高到了战略高度。文章认为目前中国自由贸易区战略具有伙伴国由周边国家向拉美、非、欧辐射,合作的领域不断拓展与深化,合作国家类型、推进模式多样化的特点。在未来的一段时期内,中国与经济规模较大的发达国家的谈判将取得突破,在兼顾中国的能源政策条件下自由贸易区的合作领域将进一步深化,最后对推进层次进行了展望。     

Liberal and Communitarian Defenses of Workplace Privacy

In this paper, I survey liberal and communitarian defenses of privacy, paying particular attention to defenses of privacy in the workplace. I argue that liberalism cannot explain all our of intuitions about the wrongness of workplace invasions of privacy. Communitarianism, on the other hand, is able to account for these intuitions.     

丝绸之路经济带建设与人民币区域化的前景——以中亚地区为例的研究

丝绸之路经济带建设是我国扩大对外开放、深化国际经济合作的新举措,这为人民币向丝绸之路经济带沿线国家输出、实现人民币区域化乃至国际化创造了有利条件.本文以中亚地区为例,基于国际货币竞争视角,采用演化博弈模型分析人民币区域化对中国、中亚国家以及区内主要国际货币发行国利益关系的影响,运用局部稳定分析方法测算得出,从长远来看,中国和中亚国家、区内主要国际货币发行国在人民币中亚区域化博弈中倾向于采取合作策略.同时,采用仿真模拟实验,判断各博弈参与主体在既定条件下选择不同策略的可能性,研究得出中国与中亚国家、区内主要国际货币发行国的博弈策略选择会随着时间变化最终收敛于合作的策略集的结论.     

中小企业管理监督与员工努力程度影响分析

随着知识经济时代的到来,企业监督机制不再是保证员工努力工作的重要手段。本文基于企业和员工两大主体建立了不对称的演化博弈模型,分析了企业管理监督对员工努力程度影响的演化路径、演化结果及其现实意义,研究结果表明企业管理监督与员工努力程度成负相关,演化结果受监督代价、惩罚成本、监督效用和竞争环境等因素的影响。     

社会资本控制链架构及其稳定性研究——基于博元投资与国美电器的案例分析

在公司治理中,实际控制人同时运用股权控制和社会资本控制已是不争的事实,随着对社会资本控制链研究的深入,"社会资本契合度"替代效应"等相关概念逐渐被提出.本文在承续前人研究的基础上,将博元投资与国美电器的社会资本控制链架构进行对比分析,指出在垂直式社会资本控制链架构中,社会资本即使在股权控制水平低于相对控股时,依然具有替代效应.同时水平式的社会资本控制链易产生多个社会资本节点,致使其稳定性下降,而垂直型的社会资本控制链,因其单极和多层的架构使得整条社会资本控制链的稳定性得以提升.     

Financial Stability and the Hemianopsia of Monetary Policy

Financial stability concerns cannot be separated from macroeconomic objectives of monetary policy. Stimulative monetary policy works by creating financial conditions that could lead to instability in markets that could, in turn, engender deflationary pressures. Although the Federal Reserve Act does not explicitly mention financial stability as an FOMC objective, it is fundamentally bound together with the achievement of the explicit goals of maximum employment and price stability.     

Multinational Subsidiary Evolution and Public Policy: Two Tales from the European Periphery

The paper explores the link between subsidiary evolution and public policy towards multinational enterprises (MNEs). The cases of two peripheral EU economies (Portugal and Ireland) are contrasted, both in terms of their inward investment policy stances and as regards differential evolutionary processes at subsidiary level unveiled by empirical results from a new survey of subsidiaries operating in those two host countries. After examining issues such as motivations underlying investment, subsidiaries roles/strategies and evolution (addressing distinct paths in subsidiary transition), the paper discusses the potential contribution of subsidiaries to host country development and what constitutes an appropriate policy towards multinationals. Explicit consideration is given to subsidiaries value-added scope and the density and quality of local linkages as key determinants of host country impact.     

Key Issues for Monetary Policy: An ECB View

The European single currency, the euro, has become a visible and successful token of Europeans drive towards unification. It was born in an era in which high-speed structural change tests the validity of economic models and defies searches for standard policy recipes. Like all central banks, the European Central Bank (ECB) must deal with uncertainty that derives not only from the timely identification of important disturbances but also imperfect knowledge of how such disturbances affect the economy. These problems are compounded by the likelihood that important and poorly understood structural changes accompany cyclical forces. Unification of Europe has brought about significant structural change, which has been amplified by the recent enlargement of the European Union. Under these conditions, independence of the ECB, a mandate of price stability, and clear rules of fiscal governance have been essential for the credibility of the euro. Thus, the ECB has quantified its target of price stability in a mediumterm framework. Like the US Federal Reserve, the ECBs policy framework is comprehensive, and its decisions are transparent. Unlike the Fed, however, the ECB has an explicit, quantitative definition of price stability and performs a detailed and explicit crosscheck between its economic analysis and detailed monetary analysis. These differences notwithstanding, the similarities between the ECB and the Fed are more important.JEL Classification E58     

供应商与零售商的动态非对称演化博弈

传统博弈理论关于参与人完全理性的假设,难以应用于现实工作中。而基于有限理性的演化博弈理论则克服了这些缺陷。从激励的角度建立信息不对称环境下供应商与零售商的非对称演化博弈模型,采用复制动态机制对博弈模型进行详细分析,得出模型的三个局部平衡点不是演化稳定策略;而另外两个平衡点哪个是模型最终的演化稳定策略是由五个假设因素决定。     

美国金融调控机制:基于有限理性的进化博弈分析

从美国次贷危机及其成因视角,以有限理性条件下的进化博弈模型作为分析工具,分析美国长期以来金融调控的内在机制,旨在揭示美国金融发展过程中已经形成的某种客观规律,以之为我国金融健康发展和改革提供借鉴。     

跨组织流程柔性的演化分析

柔性是企业在剧烈变化的环境中求得生存和发展的一个非常重要的因素,有其演化与发展的路径。在分析跨组织流程和演化经济学有关理论的基础上,通过数学建模分析,提出了一个确定跨组织柔性的理论测量模型,揭示了行为要素和状态要素共同决定了跨组织柔性的演化过程。     

供应链联盟形成的博弈分析

运用博弈矩阵分析供应链联盟的形成过程,将供应链联盟的形成过程分为寻求联盟阶段和维持联盟两个阶段,同时又将维持联盟阶段的博弈分为联盟双方力量均衡和悬殊两种不同的情况进行讨论。通过对博弈矩阵的分析,得出在力量均衡的博弈下,仅仅运用“残酷策略”并不能保持联盟长期的稳定性,而在力量悬殊的情况下,联盟具有天然的稳定性。     

“标准产品”竞争双寡头市场消费者均衡分析

基于标准的"产品"视角,本文在综合考察"标准产品"用户和质量的基础上,通过引入双寡头市场均衡分析,发现转换成本对用户临界规模及其稳定性有重要影响,较高质量的"标准产品"会在临界规模方面具备一定优势,而用户基础在一定程度上弥补了低质量"标准产品"的劣势。因此,在标准竞争成为国际竞争战略制高点的当今,正确领会标准竞争机理是推进我国标准国际化战略的重要前提。"标准产品"制定者应该积极提高标准的质量,努力扩大用户基础,在竞争中获得优势。