失业保险是否会造成长期失业?运用生存模型对青岛市失业者的经验研究

西方关于失业保险与失业持续时间关系的理论和经验研究表明，失业保险的存在会延长失业者的失业持续时间．造成长期失业。本文应用我国青岛市失业登记数据。对青岛市失业保险如何影响失业持续时间进行了经验研究。通过对失业持续时间的寿命表估计和Cox回归发现。青岛市享受失业保险者的失业持续时间要明显长于不享受失业保险者，并且在享受失业保险者当中。享受24个月失业保险者要比享受12个月失业保险者有着更长的失业持续时间；另外，失业者的再就业风险率在失业期内是动态变化的。这说明。我国的失业保险制度同样对失业者的再就业行为具有负激励效应．延长了失业持续时间。     

Unemployment Insurance and the Business Cycle: What Adjustments are Needed?

During the 2007–2011 economic downturn, the duration that one could collect unemployment insurance (UI) in the United States increased to an unprecedented 99 weeks, and the UI benefit amount increased by $25. This article explores the policy of increasing the generosity of UI during recessions using a model that accounts for the insurance and moral hazard implications of UI as well as the program's impact on job creation. When limited to adjusting the duration of benefits, a more generous UI system is optimal. However, due to UI's negative impact on job creation and the increased cost of providing benefits when unemployment is high, the optimal extension is just 1.3 months. When the government adjusts both the benefit amount and its duration, the optimal policy during downturns is a reduction in the replacement rate. This mitigates the decline in job creation and funds a UI extension of 4.3 months.     

Nordic Lessons from Exchange Rate Regimes

The Nordic countries of Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway and Sweden share common history, culture and institutions. Four, with the exception of Finland, have languages that stem from a common root. Yet the five countries have chosen different paths when it comes to membership in international organizations. Denmark, Iceland and Norway became founding members of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization while Finland and Sweden decided to stay neutral. Denmark, Sweden and Finland belong to the European Union while Iceland and Norway only belong to the European Single Market. Only Finland of the three European Union member countries has adopted the euro as its currency, Denmark has a fixed exchange rate against the euro and Sweden has a floating exchange rate regime. Yet, in spite of different monetary regimes, the economic performance in recent decades is quite similar, casting doubt on the importance of the exact regime chosen.     

The sources of unemployment in Canada, 1967-91: evidence from a panel of regions and demographic groups

We analyze the determinants of Canadian unemployment in a frameworkincorporating demand and supply-side variables: the interestrate, taxation, foreign activity, minimum wages, union density,demographic pressure, unemployment insurance, terms of trade.The model is estimated with 500 observations for five Canadianregions and four demographic groups, 1967-91. We provide a comprehensivepicture of the macroeconomic and structural causes of unemploymentwith data combining the advantages of macroeconomic time seriesand microeconomic cross sections. The long-term rise in Canadianunemployment since 1960 is attributed to higher real interestrates, the UI reform of 1972, and slightly adverse net demographicpressure.     

Impact of CEPA on the labor market of Hong Kong

A panel data method is used to evaluate the impact of the Closer Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA) signed between Mainland China and Hong Kong. Using the time series data of Hong Kong, Austria, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Korea, Netherlands, Norway, Singapore, Taiwan, U.K., and U.S. to construct what would have happened to Hong Kong's unemployment rate had there been no CEPA, we find that the CEPA effects gradually increases over time and eventually reached a constant level of reducing Hong Kong's unemployment rate by 9% a year.     

Financial Crises and Current Account Surpluses

Atlantic Economic Journal - The Nordic countries of Denmark, Finland, Norway and Sweden have had persistent current account surpluses in recent decades. While oil production set Norway apart, the...     

新疆吐鲁番地区城镇低收入群体生活状况、面临的困难及对策建议

为了解当前吐鲁番地区城镇低收入群体的生活状况,国家统计局吐鲁番调查队根据全地区城镇住户抽样调查资料,结合居民消费价格(CPI)监测资料,对2010年吐鲁番地区低收入居民家庭收入、消费、住房、医疗、教育、就业等方面问题进行了实地调研分析,研究物价上涨对低收入群体生活的影响程度,社会保障水平是否完善等问题,最后提出了一些提高吐鲁番地区城镇低收入群体生活水平的建议。     

Discrepancy between Registered and Actual Unemployment Rates in China： An Investigation inProvincial Capital Cities

The unemployment rate is a key indicator of labor market and economic performance. Based on a unique survey, we estimate the unemployment rate at 13.44percent in 30 provincial capital cities in China in 2007, which is well above the officially announced registered unemployment rate. The discrepancy results from inaccuracy in the calculation of registered unemployment. The discrepancy is not stably evolving across regions or over the years, making it difficult to recover the true unemployment rate using a simple multiplier approach. We further investigate the sources of the discrepancy by examining the determinants of unemployment registration. It is evident that participation in certain public activities, which would facilitate the spread of knowledge related to job-searching and unemployment registration, encouraged unemployment registration. Social attention to government antiunemployment programs also encouraged unemployment registration. These findings confirm the behavioral hypothesis that incomplete knowledge and limited attention can cause deviation from optimal choice. The policy implications of the findings of the study are discussed.     

中国财政政策降低不平等的效应分析:嵌入失业风险的视角

本文通过构建一个包含个体失业风险的Hank模型来分析财政政策降低不平等的影响路径与政策效果.研究发现:(1)由于储蓄规则和流动性约束作用,不平等的加剧会增加总储蓄率,不利于向以消费为主的经济结构转型;(2)降低收入所得税对减轻不平等的效果取决于其累进程度,降低比例税可降低不平等,增加一般性转移支付对改善不平等效果不显著...     

Social security for young people amidst high poverty and unemployment: Some policy options for South Africa

South African youth experience extremely high levels of unemployment and poverty. Currently there is no social assistance for low-income young adults in South Africa unless they are disabled. Interventions are needed that can achieve widespread poverty alleviation, as well as help facilitate economic participation to improve lifelong earnings. In this article, six examples of social security policy options are considered, including five grants ranging from an unconditional non-means-tested grant for young people to a conditional grant for young people in training or education, plus an ‘Opportunities voucher’ that is administered through the social security system but paid out to organisations offering youth education or work opportunities. Using a tax and benefit microsimulation model to simulate the five grants, we estimate the potential numbers reached and cost, as well as the impact of these six options on poverty.     

What if the UK had Joined the Euro in 1999?

The issue of whether the UK should join the European single currency has been fiercely debated for the past two decades. However little research has been devoted to forecasting hypothetical projections for important UK economic variables, assuming that the UK had in fact joined the euro at its inception in 1999. This paper focuses on estimating counterfactual series for two key macroeconomic variables: unemployment and output. We do this by estimating Phillips curves for the UK, which we then use to compute counterfactual series for what unemployment and output may have looked like for the UK had they adopted the single currency in 1999. Based on the comparison of our forecasts with observed data, we find that the UK was correct in not joining the euro; had they adopted the European single currency in 1999, unemployment would have been higher and output would have been lower.     

Sticky Swedes and flexible Finns: manufacturing labour markets in Finland and Sweden during the Great Depression

ABSTRACT

Nominal wage stickiness is a popular explanation for the greatness of the Great Depression. According to the sticky-wage explanation, the slow adjustment of nominal wages raised real wages above the market-clearing level, causing a reduction of output and labour, thus increasing unemployment. Explanations for nominal wage stickiness are usually sought within the labour-market institutions and their changes after the First World War. This paper examines the role of labour-market institutions by comparing manufacturing labour markets in Finland and Sweden. These two countries had quite similar economic structures, trade patterns, and exchange rate policies, but different systems of industrial relations. Results indicate that stronger trade unions and collective bargaining made nominal wages stickier in Sweden, while in Finland, where collective agreements did not exist, unions were weaker, and wage adjustment was more flexible. As a result, real product wages rose in Sweden but fell in Finland. This created in Sweden stronger pressure for reducing labour input than in Finland. Our results show on one hand that labour market institutions clearly influenced the course of the Great Depression, but on the other hand that they alone do not explain the different economic outcomes during the depression and the recovery.     

Could Sweden have stopped the second world war?

Abstract

In a recent article in the Scandinavian Economic History Review, R. Karlbom raised an important issue, and one which had not up to that point received the attention it merited.¹ This issue is the degree to which Germany was dependent on Swedish exports of iron ore between her invasion of Poland and her defeat of France. Could Germany have conquered Norway, Denmark, France, Holland and Belgium without a regular supply of iron ore from Sweden? Could Sweden, as Mr. Karlbom implies, have stopped the war?     

Certain socioeconomic problems of development of the Arctic territories

The article discusses general problems of sustainable socioeconomic development on the foreign and Russian Arctic territories. We revealed examples of the Arctic territories where the best results in balanced socioeconomic development are achieved, i.e., Iceland, the northern provinces of Norway, and Sweden. The main challenges and risks for sustainable development of the Russian Arctic zone are indicated.     

The dynamics of regional labor markets and active labor market policy: Swedish evidence

This paper analyses the repercussions of region-specific shocksto labor demand. Active labor market programs have been targetedat high unemployment regions in Sweden, a fact that should influencethe regional adjustment process. Fears have been expressed thatsome of the programs may have adverse effects on adjustmentby, for instance, locking-in displaced workers in depressedregions. The empirical results indicate that Swedish regionaladjustment has been comparatively rapid; labor mobility in responseto shocks, for instance, appears to be high by European standards.On the whole, labor market programs do not seem to have impededregional adjustment substantially.     

我国失业现象的原因分析及对策建议

近年来，我国失业率持续攀升已是不争的事实。为了对这一问题进行深入研究，文章从现存失业问题分析入手，探讨产生失业问题的根源，即经济体制转轨、经济结构调整和农村剩余劳动力转移等。根据这些原因，文章从失业预防和失业补救两方面提出了解决失业问题的建议。     

Nordic historical National Accounts since the 1880s

Abstract

In many respects the history of National Accounts (NA) and of Historical National Accounts (HNA) is common to all the Nordic countries, The first rudimentary accounts can be found by the end of the nineteenth century while the first income tax statistics of the early twentieth century provided a further stimulus. It was the 1920s and the 1930s, however, that saw the real breakthrough. In Sweden it took the form of HNA, and in the other countries the form of NA, with Denmark and Norway in the lead. The commodity-flow method provided the common characteristic.

Later developments somewhat differed in the individual countries. All participated in the Kuznets project ofHNA. Denmark and Norway had obtained new series by the mid 1960s and the early 1970s. Sweden and Finland came later, at the end of the 1980s, and consequently today have the most up-to-date series. These though reveal differences in methodology and a new project has been started, whose aim is to revive the spirit of Nordic community.     

福建省失业保险制度状况评价

福建省的失业保障制度近年来虽有长足进步,但是面临越来越严峻的就业形势,失业保险制度运行情况如何显得尤为重要。根据福建省近年的有关数据,利用失业保险制度评价的相关指标,从公平性、有效性和可持续性三个角度对福建省失业保险制度进行分析评价。     

Short and Long Effects of Productivity on Unemployment

Okun’s (1962) seminal paper is an important study on economic growth and unemployment but a detailed exploration of the effect of productivity growth on unemployment has been left aside. Yet, the relationship between productivity growth and unemployment has been debated since long. In this paper we present stylized facts on the link between productivity growth and unemployment for the short and long run, and present model variants that demonstrate that in the short run productivity growth may increase unemployment while in the long run the relationship between productivity growth and unemployment are likely to co-vary negatively. Using US data, empirically we decompose the time series of unemployment rate and productivity growth into long run and short run components and show empirical evidence that the long run and short run components co-vary as predicted by some theories.