Bias corrections for exponentially transformed forecasts: Are they worth the effort?

In many economic applications, it is convenient to model and forecast a variable of interest in logs rather than in levels. However, the reverse transformation from log forecasts to levels introduces a bias. This paper compares different bias correction methods for such transformations of log series which follow a linear process with various types of error distributions. Based on Monte Carlo simulations and an empirical study of realized volatilities, we find no choice of correction method that is uniformly best. We recommend the use of the variance-based correction, either by itself or as part of a hybrid procedure where one first decides (using a pretest) whether the log series is highly persistent or not, and then proceeds either without bias correction (high persistence) or with bias correction (low persistence).     

Carry-trades on the yen and the Swiss franc: are they different?

Using monthly data from 1986 to 2009 for 11 major currencies against the U.S. dollar (USD), we find that interest rate differentials between nine of these currencies are generally positive (sample mean of 0.86%) but are strongly negative for Japan (mean of ?2.78%) and for Switzerland (mean of ?2.22%). Investigating empirical models of nominal exchange rate changes we find for all panels that about 2% of real exchange rate misalignments are corrected in the following month. We also find important differences across samples and for the two carry-trade currencies the key results are as follows. First, interest rate differentials have a negative impact on exchange rates: higher paying currencies should appreciate, contrary to the ex-ante uncovered interest rate parity (UIP) condition. We find that this result is very robust to money supply (M1) differentials serving as instrumental variables to inflation rates. In addition, these two currencies depreciate slightly when money supply (M1) differentials increase. Second, dummy variables for periods of market turmoil suggest a particularly strong appreciation of these currencies against the USD, consistent with the unwinding of carry-trade activities.     

Innovation labs in the public sector: what they are and what they do?

This article is a first comprehensive attempt to globally map and analyse innovation labs (i-labs) in the public sector. The article analyzes theoretical reasons why i-labs are created in the public sector and tests these assumptions in practice. During the empirical study, thirty-five such organizations all over the world were identified. The research is based on a two-step approach: first, a comprehensive survey was carried out followed by an extensive in-depth interview with the managing figures of i-labs; eleven i-labs responded. The article finds support for the assumptions of external complexity, technological challenges, emulation, and legitimization as reasons behind the creation of i-labs.     

How similar are they? rethinking electoral congruence

Electoral continuity and discontinuity have been a staple of voting research for decades. Most researchers have employed Pearson’s r as a measure of congruence between two electoral outcomes across a set of geographic units. This paper argues that that practice should be abandoned. The correlation coefficient is a measure of linearity, not similarity, and is almost always the wrong measure. The paper recommends other quantities that better accord with what researchers usually mean by electoral persistence. Replications of prior studies in American and comparative politics demonstrate that the consequences of using r when it is inappropriate can be stark. In some cases what we think are continuities are actually discontinuities.     

Where are they now? tracking the longitudinal evolution of environmental businesses from the 1990s

In 1991 Steven Bennett published one of the first major publications on the concept of ecopreneurship, business opportunities resulting from the emerging environmental agenda of the late 1980s and early 1990s (Ecopreneuring: the Complete Guide to Small Business Opportunities From the Environmental Revolution. Wiley: New York). Since then a body of literature has developed that explores the idea of the intersection of entrepreneurship with environmentally and socially responsible behaviour. Many of the business cases presented by Bennett represent early adopters of green products, services and emerging eco‐markets. Given the current emphasis on the transformation of business practices towards a more sustainable paradigm it is timely to review these 94 early ecopreneurial examples and consider their status two decades on from the original publication. This paper explores the definitions of environmental and social enterprise, and considers the longitudinal survival of these companies and the emerging trends in consolidation and failure of the sampled companies. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd and ERP Environment.     

Do people trust more when they are happy or when they are sad? Evidence from an experiment

This paper deals with the role played by incidental emotions on trust decisions. Based on a laboratory experiment with monetary incentives, we explore the way positive and negative emotions impact transfers in a trust game. In addition, we investigate the mechanism through which risk intervenes in the relationship between emotions and trust. Our results suggest that negative emotions influence trust positively, whereas positive emotions decrease trust. This effect disappears once risk is included to the game. Furthermore, we found that transfer in the trust game is driven by other‐regarding preferences and by risk preferences.     

A qualitative approach to the challenges for women in management: are they really starting in the 21st century?

Traditionally, the role of women in business responsibility jobs has provided extensive and much discussed issues. Almost 20?years ago research on WIB was very rich. Some discussions surrounding women in business included, for instance: learning about their situation at work, their strong and weak management capabilities and possible setbacks to their promotion and consolidation in positions of responsibility. In any case, it did seem that conciliation between family and work lives, in general, was a setback for most women. By the beginning of 21st century the work of Leonard (Women??s Stud Int Forum 24:67?C78, 2001) analyzed the state-of-the-art, concluding that not much had changed in terms of the challenges faced by women. Therefore, it may seem appropriate, to readdress the situation for women in management as this new century reaches its first decade. This paper takes as a reference the context of an occidental and developed country such as Spain. We develop a multi-case study which allows us to (i) analyze the opinion of a group of women and men who work in high and intermediate management positions, (ii) defend the suitability to overcome the differences between men and women and (iii) admit the consideration of different female profiles. In such cases, firms may take several advantages stemming from both gender and personal characteristics.     

Where are the leaders?

The CEO, CAO and Board Chair constitute a non-profit's "power team." How effectively these leaders can combine their individual skills--specifically in mutually supportive ways--determines the critical difference between a non-profit's success or failure.     

Industry 4.0 technologies in the manufacturing sector: Are we sure they are all relevant for environmental performance?

This research contributes to the debate about the relevance of Industry 4.0 technologies in improving environmental performance in the manufacturing industry. We employed a qualitative–quantitative approach in which 19 Italian operations managers were interviewed and 260 managers responded to an online questionnaire. The effects of various technologies were ranked using ordinal regression. Comments and suggestions gave context to the quantitative results. Sensors, radio-frequency identification, artificial intelligence and analytics were found to be most relevant in improving environmental performance, whereas simulation software contributed moderately. Additive manufacturing, cobots, robots, automated mobile robots and automated guided vehicles had a negative effect, augmented reality had no effect and other technologies indirectly affected environmental performance. We also found a lack of knowledge and application as well as scepticism about technologies such as artificial intelligence and augmented reality. Finally, there was concern about the disposal of electrical and electronic waste produced by these technologies.     

Health and safety risks in Britain's workplaces: where are they and who controls them?

This is the first paper to identify the correlates of workplace managers' perceptions of the health and safety risks faced by workers and the degree to which workers have control over those risks. The risks that workers face and the control they have over those risks are weakly negatively correlated. Managerial risk ratings are positively associated with both injury and illness rates, but not with absence rates. The control rating is also positively associated with injury and illness rates, but it is negatively correlated with absence rates. Workers are more likely to be exposed to health and safety risks when their workplace is performing poorly and where it has been adversely affected by the recession. Union density is positively associated with risks but is not associated with workers' control over risks. Having on‐site worker representatives dealing with health and safety is linked to lower risks than direct consultation between management and employees over health and safety. However, there is no evidence that particular types of health and safety arrangement are related to workers' control over health and safety risks.     

COVID-19 crisis and the efficiency of Indian banks: Have they weathered the storm?

The purpose of this study is to determine whether Indian banks were able to weather the COVID-19 storm. We estimate banks’ deposits-generating and operating efficiencies using a two-stage directional distance function-based network data envelopment analysis (DDF-NDEA) approach and seek to capture the immediate impact of COVID-19 on these efficiency measures by comparing their magnitudes in the pre-pandemic (2014/15–2019/20), just 1-year prior to the pandemic (2019/20), and during the pandemic year (2020/21) periods. The study looks at whether the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic was uniform across ownership types and size classes. The empirical findings suggest that the Indian banking system was resilient and withstood the immediate impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. During the study period, however, the large and medium-sized banks experienced some efficiency losses. By and large, regardless of bank group, banks have shown resilience to the shock of the global health pandemic and improvements in efficiency.     

‘The times they are a changin’? transformative organizational innovations in financial services in the UK

Much of the management guru-based literature emphasizes the transformational capacity of organizational innovations (OIs). The excellence, quality and reengineering literature purports to abandon hierarchy, bureaucracy and management control; to eradicate conflict and instil an new team and quality-based ethos. Yet much remains unknown about how these OIs are operationalized. Here we question both theoretically and empirically the validity of such transformational claims by reference to our research within financial services. We argue that despite considerable changes, OIs remain both a condition of, and location for, the exercise of organizational power relations. Bureaucratic and hierarchical structures continue to pervade organizations. Work-related pressures and tensions abound concerning issues such as control over the quality versus the quantity of work output, work intensification and job insecurity. All of which impinge upon the performance of OIs, and belie notions of a ‘transformation’ of organizational cultures, structures or strategies.     

Why are the Pentagon and the CIA in Hollywood?

The CIA and the U.S. Department of Defense are both engaged in programs to influence the content of movies produced by Hollywood studios. Although they claim their only purpose in these ventures is to guarantee the accuracy of how military and intelligence activities are conducted, it is clear that their agenda goes beyond that goal. Their true aims include ensuring that movies project a positive image of the relevant government agencies. However, the CIA and DoD differ in their understanding of what constitutes good publicity. Films scrutinized and supported by military agencies are primarily evaluated according to whether they provide a vehicle for showing the technical and organizational competence of the Pentagon. To that end, films based on comic book characters or extraterrestrial invaders are viewed positively because they show the war‐fighting capacity of the military without having to name any actual enemy. The CIA, by contrast, prefers to support films that enable citizens to develop a stronger sense of patriotism in a world of moral ambiguities. As a result, the CIA is much less fearful of revealing the dark side of its undertakings, as long as a given movie presents a story that shows the value of the CIA in protecting the security of the nation.     

Currency unions and the incentive to reform: are market mechanisms enough?

This paper studies the incentives to join a monetary union under alternative assumptions about the extent of market reform within the union and in the candidate countries. A lack of mobility, wage/price flexibility or diversification opportunities, brings costs for both new entrants and existing union members. That holds whether the lack of reform is in the entrants or in the existing union. Countries will only want to join a union where there has been sufficient reform, and where markets are more flexible than their own. But existing members will want the same properties of their new partners as well.