Alternative scenarios for Ukraine

Major trends and driving forces are analysed in four areas, i.e. polity, economy, society and international environment of Ukraine, as well as their inter-linkages, in order to define overall dynamics of Ukrainian society. It leads to three basic scenarios for the medium term: a pan-Slavic state centred scenario (example Belarus), a feudalisation/mercantilist scenario (example Pakistan) and a liberalisation scenario (example Mexico). It is argued that the rent seeking state and the rent seeking economy are deeply rooted in a society that can be characterised as patrimonial. Although having some distinctive features, such as high level of human capital and an over-powerful state, Ukraine faces problems that are characteristic for many stagnating Third World countries. A predatory and patrimonial state could develop due to the weakness of civil society.As Aristotle has said, we can learn the nature of anything when it has reached and past its maturity. Since the abolishment of communism and the proclamation of independence, in 1991, Ukraine is experiencing a turbulent transition to a new social, political and economic system. The most tangible change was the transition from an industrialised country, where people were assured of a decent living standard, to a country where industrial production declined by 75 per cent and where the overwhelming majority of the population has been pushed into poverty. The scale and speed of deprivation was unheard of as was the social peace that accompanied this destructive movement. Leonid Kuchma, who played a major role in Ukraine for most of the 1990s as President and as Prime Minister, was re-elected by the Ukrainian population with a big margin (56 per cent) in November 1999, when faced with the choice between Kuchma and Symonenko, the latter being an orthodox communist. It showed, to a certain extent, the break with the communist past although Ukraine has not developed yet into a participatory democracy. But Ukraine has consolidated its status as an independent nation in the heart of Europe.However, the overall impression is that of disintegration, hierarchical breakdown and decline. Ukraine has been the only transition economy not to have known at least one year of economic growth during the 1990s. Only in 2000 the Ukrainian economy started to grow.Here, an analysis is made of defining features and major trends in the political sphere, the economy, society and the international environment in order to identify overall dynamics. This exercise allows the formulation of relevant questions about the interrelationships of the various sub-systems in society as well as the major challenges that Ukraine may face in the medium term.     

Carbon capture,utilisation and storage scenarios for the Gulf Cooperation Council region: A Delphi-based foresight study

Capture, utilisation and storage of carbon dioxide resulting from combusting fossil fuels is gaining attention around the world as a means of addressing climate change. This paper aims to present a set of carbon capture, utilisation and storage (CCUS) scenarios for the hydrocarbon-rich Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) region through to the year 2030, with the ultimate goal of stimulating constructive debate and discussion at both policy and academic levels. This will also be beneficial in terms of identifying future opportunities and threats so that better-informed policy action can be taken today. Four explorative scenarios have been developed using the Delphi technique, and they represent a joint creation of about one hundred highly-informed individuals from diverse professional backgrounds.     

Making territorial scenarios for Europe

Three paradigmatic traditions of scenario-building can be seen to exist. The model approach with its roots in American military scenarios of the 1950s, the design approach in French urban and regional development of the 1960s, and the strategic conversation approach in scenarios made in the private sector since the 1970s. In theory, these traditions can be integrated by organising the scenario project in a cyclical way. The territorial scenarios for Europe were made by combining workshops, a literature review and modelling. Thematic scenarios were produced for various themes, like demography, the economy, energy, and climate change. These thematic scenarios were combined into four integrated scenarios. The robustness of the scenarios was tested by introducing several “wild cards” and by exploring their territorial impacts throughout Europe. This applied approach succeeded in combining important strengths from the different scenario traditions. Improvements, however, could still be made.     

Future scenarios for the charity sector in 2045

Rapid change is affecting the demography, technology and availability of resources (both financial and volunteer) on which charities draw. This paper presents four different scenarios that could describe the charity sector one generation from now as it responds to a different world. We highlight the dangers if any one scenario becomes dominant. While it is inevitable that change will occur, these drawbacks should be minimized and it is important that public funders and policy makers steer intelligently through this changing world. Also, charity leaders must prepare and plan for inevitable change in the sector.     

Some future scenarios for renewable energy

Energy security issues, climate change, fossil fuel depletion, new technologies, and environmentally conscious consumers are powerful forces shaping the renewable energy sector. The future of renewable energy depends upon how powerful these forces are and which combination of forces prevails. This paper defines and analyzes four different scenarios, business as usual (2010–2030), focus on climate change (2010–2060), focus on energy security (2010–2030), and a clean and secure energy future (2010–2100) for the future of renewable energy. A clean and secure energy future, where renewable energy accounts for between 50% and 80% of total energy demand, is the most favorable scenario for the future of renewable energy but also the scenario that takes the greatest amount of commitment, in terms of time and money from businesses, individuals, governments, and policy makers.     

Millennium Project's draft scenarios for the next 1000 years

In cooperation with The Foundation For the Future, The Millennium Project of the American Council for the United Nations University has collected and rated factors that may influence the long-term (1000 years) future of humanity via the “Millennium 3000 Panel” of 100 advanced thinkers around the world. Their judgements have been organized into six first draft scenario sketches, of which three are presented in this paper.     

Projecting scenarios for South-east Asia and the South-west Pacific

The article describes further work to validate and assess a method of futures projection. The full methodology is shown in the context of a projection of plausible future trends for South-east Asia and the South-west Pacific. A number of scenarios are developed and it is shown that the future for that region may be fraught with considerable problems. Finally, the methodology is assessed and suggestions for future work are made.     

Towards a new approach for the identification of atypical accident scenarios

Proper hazard identification (HAZID) in safety reports has become progressively more difficult to achieve. Several major accidents in Europe in recent years, such as Buncefield and Toulouse, were not even considered by their site ‘Seveso-II’ Safety Case. One of the reasons is that available HAZID methodologies take no notice of apparently least likely events. Nonidentified scenarios thus constitute a latent risk, whose management is extremely complex and open ended. For this reason, the EC project iNTeg-Risk, in one of its tasks, aimed to investigate the issue of atypical scenarios and explain how they could have been identified. This study wants to describe the approach used and its immediate results, paving the way towards a new method for the identification of atypical accident scenarios. An in-depth accident analysis of some of these accidents was performed, in order to outline general features of plants in which they occurred, their causes, consequences, and lessons learned. This analysis followed a precise common scheme, which allowed a systematic approach to the problem by the experts involved. Based on the findings, failures connected to risk management and risk appraisal were identified. Three main basic issues in risk appraisal were identified: the low perception of emerging risks related to atypical accident scenarios, the lack of knowledge about related events, such as early warnings, and the incapability of current techniques in leading analysts to the identification of atypical scenarios.     

Experiences of the development and use of scenarios for evaluating Swedish environmental quality objectives

This paper presents and evaluates a method for encouraging long-term thinking and for considering a variety of scenarios in environmental policy processes. The Swedish environmental policy is based on 16 environmental quality objectives (EQOs) that national authorities are obliged to observe. These objectives are reviewed annually and evaluated in depth every four years. Here we describe and explore a futures study project for introducing more long-term thinking into work on the EQOs, which we tested in the in-depth evaluation in 2008. We found it difficult to design a collective scenario for a case with a wide variety of objectives and individuals with different backgrounds. However, this difficulty makes it even more important to incorporate futures studies into the work of the relevant authorities. Scenario work is often subcontracted, leading to a constant lack of futures studies expertise and thinking within authorities. Despite the difficulties, we found that experts within the authorities did begin to recognise the opportunities provided by futures studies. The project revealed an interest and need for futures studies within the authorities in charge of Swedish environmental quality objectives and our findings show that the authorities need to build up their own skills in futures studies.     

Experiences of the development and use of scenarios for evaluating Swedish national environmental objectives

The aim of the present paper is to present and evaluate a method for encouraging long-term thinking and considerations of a variety of scenarios in environmental policy processes. The Swedish environmental policy is based on 16 environmental objectives that national authorities are responsible for. They are evaluated annually and also in-depth every fourth year. Here we describe and explore a futures study project for introducing a more long-term thinking in the work with the environmental objectives, tested in the in-depth evaluation 2008. An experience was that it is difficult to design a collective scenario work in a case with a wide variety of objectives and with individuals with different backgrounds. However, this difficulty makes it even more important to incorporate futures studies in authorities work. Scenario work is often subcontracted, leading to a constant lack of futures studies competence and thinking at the authorities. Another experience is that despite the difficulties, experts at the authorities did start thinking more in terms of opportunities with futures studies. A general conclusion from the work was that there is an interest and need for futures studies at the authorities in charge of the environmental objectives. The possibly most important conclusion from this project was that the authorities need to build up their own competences in futures studies.     

Health scenarios and policy making Lessons from the Netherlands

A decade ago the Dutch government established the Steering Committee on Futures Health Scenarios (STG) to organize and facilitate research and debate on alternative futures in public health. The STG has since carried out dozens of scenario projects on specific health topics, and the resulting reports have played an important role in the decision-making process within the health sector. The researchers, policy makers, and administrators who have been involved with STG activities have also learned a great deal about which methodologies, processes and organizational arrangements are best for this kind of enterprise. Those lessons are shared here for the benefit of other health agencies interested in carrying out similar programmes.     

Agriculture in the EEC: Two scenarios to the year 2000

The nine-member EEC, soon to be enlarged to 12 countries, is a major agricultural producer and trader. The author describes the assumptions behind two scenarios: high agricultural-commodity output (protectionist), and low output (liberalisation). After examining the pressures for change, he concludes that some measure of liberalisation is likely, possibly with new adjustment mechanisms (eg farm-income support rather than price intervention). However, the complexity of present EEC agricultural policy and the prevailing interests of current member countries make radical change unlikely.     

Governing the transition to low-carbon futures: A critical survey of energy scenarios for 2050

There is a growing scientific consensus that limiting the increase in global average temperature to around 2 °C above pre-industrial levels is necessary to avoid unacceptable impact on the climate system. This requires that the developed countries’ emissions are radically reduced during the next 40 years. Energy scenario studies provide insights on the societal transitions that might be implied by such low-carbon futures, and in this paper we discuss how a greater attention to different governance and institutional issues can complement future scenario exercises. The analysis is based on a critical review of 20 quantitative and qualitative scenario studies, all of relevance for meeting long-term climate policy objectives. The paper: (a) analyzes some key differences in energy technology mixes and primary energy use patterns across these studies; (b) briefly explores the extent and the nature of the societal challenges and policy responses implied; and (c) discusses a number of important implications for the design and scope of future scenario studies. Our review shows that in previous scenario studies the main attention is typically paid to analyzing the impact of well-defined and uniform policy instruments, while fewer studies factor in the role of institutional change in achieving different energy futures. We therefore point towards a number of strategies of integrating issues of transition governance into future scenario analyses, and argue for a closer synthesis of qualitative and quantitative scenario building.     

Futures of privacy protection: A framework for creating scenarios of institutional change

The future of privacy is a topical issue in the context of debates on mass surveillance and the increasing prevalence of social media sites in everyday life. Previous scenario studies on privacy have focused on macro trends and on forecasting technological developments, and claims about causal influences have remained implicit. This article presents an alternative approach for constructing scenarios of privacy protection. The article focuses on privacy protection as a social institution and builds on the theory of gradual institutional change. The article presents a scenario framework which includes three stages: (1) outlining the dynamics of privacy protection, (2) tracing historical processes and constructing a causal narrative, and (3) creating event-based scenarios. The resulting scenarios are narratives of plausible chains of events which are based on the results of the previous stages. The key difference to typical scenario approaches is the focus on specific actors and types of event sequences in privacy protection. The argument is that by lowering the level of abstraction in this way, researchers and decision-makers can gain a more profound understanding of possible future challenges in privacy protection and of key leverage points in the institutional change process.     

Stepping into futures: Exploring the potential of interactive media for participatory scenarios on social-ecological systems

In this paper, we present a strategy for the development of interactive media scenarios to help communicate uncertainties and complexities in coupled human and natural systems. Insights arising from Complex Adaptive Systems theory advocate the need for more adaptive perspectives on natural resources management. For the collaborative exploration of future complexities and uncertainties, participatory scenario development has proven to be a powerful approach. A range of communication strategies with benefits for conveying complexity, however, has not yet been adopted by scenario developers. We present a framework of criteria with which we structurally analyze the benefits of interactive media communication. First, we consider requirements of feasibility, flexibility and stakeholder contributions. Then, we synthesize criteria for the communication of Complex Adaptive Systems. Finally, we set criteria for communicatory clarity and engagement. Using this framework, we review several science communication fields, including landscape visualization, serious gaming and visual analytics. We then develop a strategy for interactive media communication in participatory scenario development, including two work-in-progress examples. This strategy employs mixed media, micro-games and accessible stakeholder contributions in a geo-web context, and is suitable for participatory work in live settings as well as on-line, from a local to a global scale.