Reductionism or layered complexity? The futures of futures studies

Futures studies is likely to evolve through changes in five areas. They are: (1) forecasting to anticipatory action learning; (2) reductionist to complex; (3) horizontal to vertical; (4) from short-term empiricist research to the return of long-term history, including grand narratives; and (5) scenario development to moral futures.     

Anticipatory action learning: conversations about the future

This paper proposes experimenting with anticipatory action learning for helping to create the future. It is an interactive process that relies strongly on a central thread of conversation among a variety of participants, from multiple perspectives, concerned with the social unit or project. Basically, anticipatory action learning is action research modified for foresight. It integrates research/search with decision and action, and downgrades the prerogative of a research elite, empowering all participants. Conversation allows meaning from a range of different worldviews to be shared and negotiated for studying, theorising and otherwise engaging the future—and more importantly, for helping to create it. Criteria are proposed for anticipatory action learning and procedural and administrative limitations are addressed.The visions we have about our own futures vary according to the mindset each of us stands in. It would be fascinating to compare the personally envisioned futures of everyone at an international meeting of futurists. Our futures should converge in some way where we share common interests as futurists, and diverge on the point of intercultural variety. But, would they differ from each other as widely as those of Aung San Suu Kyi and the Burmese generals?It would be even more telling to compare the range of alternative futures envisioned by world leaders with the visions of their constituents and especially, say, with the visions of a woman in Africa’s Central Lakes region and of the homeless in Osaka.In a similar way, the means of engaging the future in order to study it, and its uncertainties, and the way people think about it, are variously dependent on the mindsets of the scholars and researchers, and the realities they find themselves in. Methodologies of futures studies range across the predictable: from empirical quantitative projection (linear and non-linear); to qualitative interpretation and critical analysis; and to participatory action research or its associate, action learning.Then, futures studies differs according to the disciplinary framework of the researcher, whether in physics, ecology, complexity science, social science and the humanities, critical cultural theory or philosophy. Further, there is the division of the pragmatic and academic perspectives.Actually, the very fact of having a formal methodology is itself derived from a dominant civilisational and ethical perspective, mainly Western.There is another important distinction in futures studies. On the one hand, there is the perspective from which futurists research, analyse and critique the future, or more precisely what other people think and say about the future. On the other, there is the perspective from which people in the focal social unit may think and act to create their own futures.Then, acting to create a future poses at least two further distinctions depending on whether one believes the future is structurally preordained, or whether human interaction and intervention play a significant part.It is from the perspective of participative human agency acting to create one future or another, at least partially, that this paper proceeds.Before going further, let us address the question of whether future-creating can rightly be claimed to constitute the study of the future, or future studies. If it is not part of futures studies, then at least future-creating activity does rely on input from the field, the results of studying and reflecting on alternative options for the future—futures, plural. Whatever way we look at creating the future, as opposed to merely researching data about it, the activity does represent a fairly direct, personal engagement of the future, as much as anyone can do about a time–space that has yet to arrive. This is an important distinction, since many empirical futures studies do not so directly engage the future, well not personally. Rather, they examine stated opinions of others about future options, and other people’s preferences, emerging issues and the like, themselves all valuable activities.

If, as Michel Godet has said, ‘...the future is not written anywhere and has still to be built...’ [[1]], creating the future is a central activity which at least deserves full consideration by the field of futures studies, especially if it relies on the analysis and critique of data generated or accessed around the activity itself.

Learning about the future: From the learner's perspective

The path for a hopeful future depends on learning, a process that is a complex symphony of human experience. It is a process that demands deep questioning and critique of our world-views. It is a process that requires that we open ourselves to and effectively cope with a myriad of emotions. It is a process that compels us to engage in soul-searching as we explore our human responsibilities and commitments, connect with the meaning and purpose of our very existence and choose paths of action based on those reflections. Learning to care for future generations and the world they will inherit is a unique and holistic process. Our ability to support this form of learning begins with an understanding of the human experience of learning, from the perspective of learners.     

Foresight and long-term policy-making: An analysis of anticipatory boundary work in policy organizations in The Netherlands

Public policy is founded on analysis and knowledge. However, knowledge – and especially knowledge about the future – is not a self-evident element of public policy-making. This paper conceptualizes the problematic relationship between anticipatory policy-making and anticipatory knowledge. Our study identifies possible key-variables in the linkage between foresight and policy, such as positioning, timing interfaces, professional background, instrument usage, procedures and leadership. We describe the organization and flow of policy and futures knowledge. Furthermore, we generalize these findings toward a theory concluding how ‘goodness of fit’ between knowledge about the future and policy can be achieved, so that the likelihood of informed future-oriented policies might increase.     

Future-oriented higher education: Which key competencies should be fostered through university teaching and learning?

Universities play an important role in shaping the future of the world society in terms of sustainable development by generating new knowledge as well as contributing to the development of appropriate competencies and raising sustainability awareness. During the last years, many universities have undertaken activities for implementing Higher Education for Sustainable Development (HESD). Many have asked which key competencies are most relevant for sustainable development and hence should be developed in future-oriented higher education. Different approaches for the selection of sustainability key competencies have been developed, but there is little international agreement in the debate around the most important key competencies. Consequently, this paper asks which individual key competencies are crucial for understanding central challenges facing the world society and for facilitating its development towards a more sustainable future, and thus identifies those competencies which should be fostered through university teaching and learning. The empirical design of the study is related to a Delphi study in which ‘sustainability key competencies’ are defined by selected experts from Europe (Germany, Great Britain) and Latin America (Chile, Ecuador, Mexico). The results show that twelve key competencies crucial for sustainable development can be identified; the most relevant ones are those for systemic thinking, anticipatory thinking and critical thinking.     

Teaching Innovative Accounting Topics: Student Reaction to a Course in Social Accounting

Accounting students experience degree programmes with a fairly ‘traditional’ range of topics that are taught with an emphasis on technique and learning the ‘status quo’. To the extent that a topic may challenge this pattern by emphasizing new concepts, questioning existing concepts, being more concerned with what accounting ‘might be’ rather than current practice, or some combination of these, some topics may be considered ‘innovative’ additions to the curriculum. Social accounting is an innovative accounting topic that has attracted considerable attention in the literature. This paper reports on an implementation dilemma encountered in a course on social accounting resulting from a clash between preferred student learning attributes and those embodied in social accounting. The use of action oriented teaching strategies to counteract this dilemma is identified. Similar problems and solutions may be applicable for other innovative accounting topics.     

Carpe the academy: Dismantling higher education and prefiguring critical utopias through action research

This paper engages with the challenge of re-imagining higher education. We start from the position that the ascent of the increasingly corporatized university is deeply problematic precisely because of the neoliberal realist position on ‘the future’ that it assumes and perpetuates: the view that there is no alternative to neoliberal capitalist market principles, that present and future realities can diverge only to the extent permitted by existing market forces and rationales (Amsler, 2011). In this context, ‘education’ takes the form of preparing and socializing the next generation of workers: a future focus severely limited in the possibilities it considers. Thus we are faced with a mutually-constitutive relationship where constrained visions of future needs and demands serve to constrain present educational offerings; a dynamic which becomes self-reinforcing and which admits little disruption. In this paper, we draw on the concrete body of practice known as action research to consider how we might prize open spaces for thinking much more expansively about what ‘the future’ might entail, and what forms of education and organization are necessary in the present to keep open, rather than shut down, diverse possibilities and democratic debate around this. We focus on critical utopian action research and systemic action research as illustrative of key qualities of prefigurative and critical utopian engagement with educational presents and futures. We conclude that the capture of the university by neoliberal logics can be resisted and challenged through radical methodologies, like action research, which explicitly set out to be ongoingly anti-hegemonic, critical, self-reflexive, pluralistic, and non-recuperative (Firth, 2013, Garforth, 2009).     

The growing role of informal controls: does organization learning empower or subjugate workers?

Several management theorists have called for organizations to incorporate organization learning, empowerment, open-book management, and similar initiatives to generate better value from an important strategic resource: employees. What does this mean for the controlled? Do extensions of the management control system’s ability to implement the strategy of the firm offer workers a more central role in creating their future? Or is this “progress" just another means to extract extra effort from workers for the benefit of owners? This paper is developed in two parts. The first argues that seeking better value from workers is here to stay, and that the implications for management control system bear consideration. In particular, the five disciplines of Senge’s (1990) Organization Learning are introduced to illustrate growing ways informal controls enhance workers’ knowledge contributions. The second half of the paper examines implications of this increasing control. Some argue that it is naive to expect organization learning will lead managers to willingly realign existing lopsided rewards. However, as a natural response to change, these controls are themselves dynamic and evolutionary. This paper suggests that the growing dependence on employee’s superior knowledge recalibrates power arrangements. Further there is a growing awareness that many managers’ self-interest is mitigated by their sense of fairness. Consequently, an increasingly shared authority combined with the self-reflection and transparency of organization learning raises the possibility of an environment where those who perform the work share more equally in its rewards.     

Interactions between control and organizational learning in the case of a municipality: A comparative study with Kloot (1997)

Control systems are frequently described as hindering organizational learning. The reality is far more complex. In this framework this article tries to complete Kloot's work (1997) by coming up with a more comprehensive approach. Indeed, it highlights through an analysis grid the impact of controlling systems on the questioning of organizational methods and objectives. In this research on a local community our standpoint consists notably in taking account of the political aspect, more concretely, of the influence of elected representatives whose role is predominant in questioning the validity as well as the rationality of controlling tools.     

First steps: towards purposeful activities in scenario thinking and future studies

In this paper, we contribute to the understanding of the field of scenario development and future studies, which has been a key debate in Futures over the past three of four years. Our contribution is less on the philosophical issues surrounding future studies, but more on the hurdles faced by those interested in practising in the area of scenario planning and future studies. The issues presented and discussed in this article arise from a number of action learning research projects that we have conducted with small and medium sized enterprises (SMEs) in Scotland, who have embraced scenario development for the first time as part of their strategic management and learning process.Our contribution is targeted at identifying and understanding the hurdles to be overcome when (such) organisations consider adopting scenario development or future studies. The contribution is designed to first, help those in the field of scenario development and future studies be mindful of these hurdles and to build a trusting relationship between the scenario practioner and the client, and secondly, help those managers willing to engage in such activities to better understand the purpose of such work.First we identify three key hurdles: (a) organisational culture (i.e. tacit assumptions on scenario development and future studies); (b) “client” state of mind; (c) fear of engaging with the outside/fear of the future. We argue that these hurdles are a serious threat to the relevance and effectiveness of futures work. We argue that these hurdles need to be better understood as a basis for improving the impact and contribution that scenario development and future studies can make.Later in this article we propose a framework to help understand the purpose of scenario development or future studies work. This framework can be used at the outset of any engagement or study, to help the “client” to identify the purpose of such work and to understand its role and scope. We argue that this framework contributes to more purposeful, relevant and actionable scenario development and future studies in the future.Unless you changed something in the minds of managers, a scenario project had failed (Harvard Bus. Rev. 63(6) (1985) 139). Going one-step further, we would argue that unless something tangible happens as the result of the scenario development and future studies work, we have wasted our time.     

Metaphors of the future and the power of images in the British TV drama Spooks

Our analysis of metaphors of the future in the British TV drama Spooks is situated within the phenomenon of television as a complex narrative and global media product at the time of the proclaimed war on terror. We claim that the conceptualization of the future is shaped by the notion of the conflicts between civilizations, in which various Others are produced by media and military discourses as a threat to western civilization. The dominant discourses in Spooks involve the manageable future (as a destination and a framework) and the future as judgment and apocalypse (which can be avoided through the process of macro-securitization that relies on predictive analysis and the efforts of competent individuals). We explore the anticipatory aspect of the series since it predicted geopolitical trends such as 7/7, the Ukrainian crises and the negative perception of Russia. Spooks deconstructs the notion of a homogenous Western alliance and exposes the hypocrisy of the war on terror which includes the violation of civil rights. Our analysis suggests that the series has transformative potential by offering alternative future perspectives of the different sides in the conflict.     

Hope and anticipation in education for a sustainable future

Global sustainability problems pose serious challenges for humanity. In handling these problems education for sustainable development (ESD) is seen as important. Different key competences that ESD should focus on have been introduced, such as the ability to deal with future dimensions. Still, studies indicate that future dimensions are not always included in ESD and that many young people are pessimistic concerning the global future. Therefore, one could argue that a focus on anticipatory emotions, especially hope, should be included in ESD. There is a worry, however, that hope will lead to unrealistic optimism and/or less engagement. The aim of this paper is to problematize the discussion about hope in relation to ESD and the global future by grounding it in theories from different disciplines and in empirical research about young people, hope, and climate change. The review shows that hope is a complex, multifaceted, and sometimes contested concept. Hope can be related to denial, but in other cases it can help people face and do something constructive with their worries about the global future. The close relation between hope and trust is emphasized and a need for critical emotional awareness in ESD is argued for.     

Bleached!: Managing coral catastrophe

Corals have recently emerged as both a sign and a measure of the imminent catastrophic future of life on earth and, as such, have become the focus of intense conservation management. Bleached! draws on in-depth interviews and participatory observations with coral scientists and managers to explore the management of the corals’ ecological catastrophe to come. The article starts by describing the unique life of corals, the importance of calculability in catastrophe management, and the coral scientists’ preoccupation with classifying, counting, and seeing in their attempt to comprehensibly monitor corals and anticipate their decline. Algorithmic models and elaborate temporal analyses are central to this governmental project of “knowing bleaching.” What happens after such bleaching events are foreseen is the topic of my next exploration, which highlights the emergence of yet more monitoring as the central coral conservation “action” in the face of the looming catastrophe. The “resilience” concept is of growing importance in the world of coral management. Since it underlines unpredictability and nonlinearity, resilience as well seems to fly in the face of any anticipatory action, instead scientifically justifying forms of inaction. Finally, Bleached! discusses the heated debates among coral scientists about whether to focus present actions on “buying time” for corals, or whether the only way to prevent or limit imminent coral catastrophe is to deal directly with the elephant in the room: the global regulation of climate change. I argue that, in the case of corals at least, scientific knowledge is not power. Quite the contrary, the real political story here seems to lie in the ways in which scientists’ knowledge is neutralized and prevented from having political effects, such that it does not lead to anticipatory action to restore the ecological order. As one of the prominent coral scientists I interviewed for this project put it: current conservation efforts are akin to reorganizing the chairs on the Titanic, rather than to changing the ship’s deadly course.     

How futuring bush mechanics seek to transform the world

In today's complex and turbulent world it is vital to have futurists who can collaborate on collective projects, focus on action codified in exemplar projects and validate actions towards a better world. Unfortunately, current ‘education’ systems focus almost exclusively on the individual learner and have separated the learner from the praxis of the lived life. Furthermore, classrooms separate the learner from design, production and integration of learning into community life. The author argues that overcoming this separation of thinking and doing is one of the key challenges for modernity in future, in particular.This paper argues that a way in which we may be able to meet this challenge is known by the term ‘bush mechanics’ in Australia—innovative individuals who look forward wisely and solve collective problems today through applying their ingenuity with what is available, thus integrating thinking, doing and being in what in ancient times was called poiesis and in Medieval times ‘artificing’ and today can be seen in action learning and the bush mechanic. The four principles, as well as examples, of the bush mechanic approach are discussed including their exemplar projects. Finally, the importance of the bush mechanic approach to ‘futuring’ and creating living breathing examples today of a future our children can live with is emphasised and collaboration sought.     

The first fifteen years: a personal view of the early history of the WFSF (1967-1982)

This article is based on a personal account on the early history of the WFSF. The author emphasizes that this organization was in many ways more a social movement than a professional organization, since it functioned as a critique of the emerging future think tanks, which were so closely linked to established powers. Moreover, from its beginning, the Federation attempted to be a real global organization and not only an affair of the so called developed world. It succeeded in having conferences in all continents.In that early period the Federation had given explicit support to individuals and institutions in the communist countries of Central/Eastern Europe, where future research institutions were to some extent ‘havens in a heartless world’. The Federation has also promoted international courses in future studies for graduate students, especially in Dubrovnik. Many of the participants later on became active (board) members of the WFSF. Finally, in those days the Federation promoted a number of research projects on the study of the future, producing an impressive number of books and journals. In short, the WFSF is a club to be proud of.     

Ways of knowing, culture, communication and the pedagogies of the future

This article focuses on how cultures are embedded in diverse ways of knowing and how individuals teach (formal, action research, spiritual) and learn the world (action, science, technique or gnosis) differently. We present case-studies or stories of teaching and learning futures and futures generations. These stories tell the fundamental difficulties we face in teaching, communicating and learning across civilization, profession, worldview and pedagogical style. We offer a futures method, causal layered analysis, as one way to enter different knowing spaces. The educational challenge ahead of us is to pass on the rich diversity of culture and ways of knowing to future generations.     

对香港银行业中小企业信贷实践与经验的考察--兼论其对内地银行业的启示

中小企业信贷短缺是世界性的难题,香港银行业在这方面的实践和经验为内地银行业提供了很好的借鉴.从宏观层面上看香港良好的市场环境和实事求是的态度是中小企业信贷业务能够顺利开展的关键;同时其灵活的业务组织体系、科学的信用评价体系特别是预期违约率的广泛运用、适当的经济规模、严格的系统控制、客户价值的最大化、多样化的担保方式和持续的业务创新等都是值得我们学习借鉴的方式方法.内地银行业拓展中小企业信贷业务将是一个长期的、渐进的过程;但近期重点还是要在机构设置、市场细分、技术准备和行业分析等基础工作方面有所突破,为今后大规模进入中小企业信贷市场进行积累.     

Marketers expressing the future: Scenario planning for marketing action

Thomas Friedman exhorts us to imagine the future [1] - we urge marketers to invent the future, to learn the future faster, and to deliver the future earlier. Marketers are asked to develop scenarios about emerging technologies such as broadband wireless but more often than not have no education or training in scenario planning. Also marketers are often stuck in a strategic planning mindset based on successful replication of past marketing strategies. Strategic management and marketing learning has ventured into futures and foresight methodologies, but with strong focus on conventional macroscopic high-level scenario planning methods.This paper positions scenario planning as a method to express the future vision, both tacit and explicit, of business, products and services in a clear succinct story form, to underpin all elements of a marketing strategy (goals, position and execution). The scenario planning for marketing action (SPMA) model is introduced and discussed incorporating eight principles: moderation and time compression; storytelling led new product and service development; customer orientation; iterative dynamic scenarios; complexity science to foster non-linear thinking; risk weighted scenarios; participant hosted scenario workshops; springboard consolidation.The SPMA method was proven and evolved within postgraduate Executive education courses in Sydney and Bangkok from 2003 to 2007. This approach is fundamental for marketers to gain competences in “learning the future faster”, thus possessing capabilities to imagine and invent the future and deliver the future earlier.     

Paths of learning, grieving and transforming

This paper looks at the internal paths people walk as they are engaged in learning about future generations. The deep personal relevance and immediacy of the topic engage students as whole persons in learning processes that transform their perspective on the world and on themselves. Facilitating students as they go through this transformative learning cycle is the task of the teacher. Furthermore, although not widely recognized as such, grief is a part of any learning process as people let go of one thought, perspective or behavior, and try on a different one. When the topic is emotionally loaded with such profound implications as that of the future of our planet, grief becomes even more intense for the learner. Thus educators benefit from an understanding of both learning and grieving processes as they teach courses about future generations. By acknowledging the mourning associated with transforming the learners' world view, educators may assist students to move beyond immobilizing blocks and despair to creative action. This paper explores the normal experiential learning cycle and natural grief processes as they are played out within students while learning about global futures.     

The nature and value of futures studies or do futures have a future?

The paper discusses the necessity for futures studies and argues the need for methods giving explicable understandings of future possibilities so that decisions and policies can be as future-proof as possible. A taxonomy for futures methodologies based on their passive, preventive or anticipatory characteristics is proposed. The anticipatory methodologies are further categorised into subjective and numerical approaches. The paper goes on to review some of the principal numerical approaches such as system dynamics and econometric methods. The subjective approaches, such as the extended scenario, Delphi and Field Anomaly Relaxation are considered and it is concluded that, in general, they, and especially Field Anomaly Relaxation, are the more fruitful line of attack on the futures problem. Some directions for further research are suggested.