Idea mining for web-based weak signal detection

We investigate the impact of idea mining filtering on web-based weak signal detection to improve strategic decision making. Existing approaches for identifying weak signals in strategic decision making use environmental scanning procedures based on standard filtering algorithms. These algorithms discard patterns with low information content; however, they are not able to discard patterns with low relevance to a given strategic problem. Idea mining is proposed as an algorithm that identifies relevant textual patterns from documents or websites to solve a given (strategic) problem. Thus, it enables to estimate patterns’ relevance to the given strategic problem. The provided new methodology that combines weak signal analysis and idea mining is in contrast to existing methodologies. In a case study, a web-based scanning procedure is implemented to identify textual internet data in the field of self-sufficient energy supply. Idea mining is applied for filtering and weak signals are identified based on the proposed approach. The proposed approach is compared to a further – already evaluated – approach processed without using idea mining. The results show that idea mining filtering improves quality of weak signal analysis. This supports decision makers by providing early and suggestive signals of potentially emerging trends, even with only little expressive strength.     

Design junctions: Spaces and situations that frame weak signals – the example of hygiene and hospital planning

This article discusses the question: Are weak signals independent of framing and interactions with the environment? The response proposed here is that many of the developments identified by efforts to detect and interpret weak signals are the result of designed interventions that define the repertoire of actions and frames. Very often, as Ansoff argued, actors use a variety of models and filters for seeking and using weak signals. Thus weak signals are not only dependent on the interpretative equipment applied by actors, but from a constructivist perspective the identification of and meaning given to weak signals are strongly influenced by design choices made at the outset. In this sense design is a constitutive element of both the environment and signal detection/use. An example of how design is constitutive of both context and understanding can be found in the history of hospital hygiene. This case study illustrates how dominant regimes of practice, established through the conception of pathogen bacteria and antibacterial treatments and disinfection, are now creating signals that call into question fundamental design of hygiene practices. By examining the epistemic assumptions of scientific disciplines and the designed repertoire of practical responses it becomes clear how contexts and frames of interpretation are constituted and how such contexts and frames then define what is recognised as a weak signal.     

Weak signals: Ansoff today

This paper examines the concept of weak signals: its basic idea presented by Igor Ansoff and its later developments. We argue that recent futures studies have essentially deepened the analysis of this concept, which originally lacked an accurate definition. Placing weak signals in the general context of futures research has provided the concept with a theoretical point of attachment and linked it with other futures concepts – such as strong signals and trends. Recent studies have also increased the applicability of the concept of weak signals, specifying ways in which signals can be identified, collected and interpreted. Consequently, a number of empirical examples of the analysis of weak signals are nowadays available. In the present paper, we summarize and evaluate both theoretical contributions and managerial implications of these new approaches. While emphasizing the advancements of research, we also want to point out that Ansoff not only was a pioneer in the field, but developed many ideas that are still applicable today. We conclude our paper by suggesting directions for the further development of weak signals research.     

Normality of the future: Trend diagnosis for strategic foresight

Foresight processes and activities are confronted with the task of making sense of the present, in particular by interpreting weak signals of change in the organizational environment. Although trends are considered to be important drivers of environmental discontinuities which may lead to strategic surprises, there is no operationalization from a strategic point of view. In this paper we are going to conceptualize trends as (socio-cultural) innovations. This leads to important implications. If the nature of innovation is taken seriously, then strategic trend diagnosis has to deal with two different aspects, invention and diffusion. First, we are going to present a framework for identifying the invention aspect of a trend (i.e., “the new”) which is based on the fact that “the new” results from a transgression of contextual boundaries. Second, we are going to operationalize the diffusion of “the new” as a threefold process of normalization - i.e., an unusual practice becomes social convention. Taken together, these two aspects provide a theoretical link between trends and market creation. In addition, by relating the above operationalizations to an entrepreneurial strategy-making framework, strategic issue diagnosis can be improved and more seamlessly linked to strategy formulation.     

Futures signals sense-making framework (FSSF): A start-up tool to analyse and categorise weak signals, wild cards, drivers, trends and other types of information

This article introduces future signals sense-making framework (FSSF), an alternative philosophy towards weak signals, emerging issues, drivers, and trends, that is in contrast to the traditional single signal or path extrapolation approach. The philosophy of FSSF is based on the principles of environmental scanning and pattern management, which state that if there is a grand transformation process on the way or if there is a new emerging pattern or phenomenon, such a process will certainly be reflected in many different ways. Therefore, in this philosophy, futures knowledge is believed to be fragmented between various simultaneous and overlapping sources. Here, a researcher's task is to carry out a sufficient environmental scanning process and to cluster and sense how to create the emerging future through a pattern management process where FSSF plays a role as the first start-up tool. Alternatively, FSSF can also be used as a general knowledge management and sense-making tool for any kind of analyses.     

Wild cards, weak signals and organisational improvisation

This paper addresses the need for reliable action guidelines which can be used by organisations in turbulent environments. Building on current conceptual and empirical research, we suggest an analytical approach to the management of surprising and potentially damaging events. In order to do so we propose the wild card management system. Wild cards refer to sudden and unique incidents that can constitute turning points in the evolution of a certain trend. As the first of the two components of such a wild card system, we advocate a weak signal methodology to take into account those wild cards that can be anticipated by scanning the decision environment. The second component, the nurture of improvisation capabilities, is designed to deal with unanticipated ongoing crises. This paper can be seen as part of a broader agenda on how to manage in conditions of continuous but unpredictable change.     

The strategic strength of weak signal analysis

Foresight can be seen as a social cognition process involving a complex set of methods and interactive processes intended to assist policy in becoming more adaptive and forward-oriented in unpredictable environments. As a form of foresight raw material, “weak signals” can be thought of as gross, unstructured, fragmented, incomplete and inadvertent environmental data that may be refined into valuable information regarding context and further be articulated into strategically actionable knowledge. As advanced indicators that precede significant discrete one-off events and/or novel developments in the rate and direction of trends, their analysis has the potential to facilitate the real-time alignment between organisational decision-making and changing external circumstances. These predictors of future change pose fundamental problems of identification and interpretation and represent a challenge to established mental models. Thus, the practical significance of weak signals is that they can be transformed into meaningful insight for policy action. Such a value, however, does not materialise automatically. Realising this potential requires a degree of tolerance and fluidity of the collective cognitive frameworks by which weak signals can be apprehended, assessed and acted upon. This paper aims at covering the scope of perceptions and actions typically involved in the tracing and tracking of this shaping process.     

Early detection,warnings, weak signals and seeds of change: A turbulent domain of futures studies

This paper marks a milestone in a six year research cycle on weak signal analysis and early detection issues in futures studies. While providing a broad view and discussing a variety of contributions on this topic, the aim of this article is to offer a more constructivist approach to early detection studies than has been typically the case so far. The article starts by positioning the underlying problem of weak signals within the broader field of futures studies. The second section examines the Ansoffian tradition, first on the basis of Ansoff's own contributions, then through key enhancements offered by scholars working in the same perspective. The third section develops the arguments for a constructivist critique of the Ansoffian tradition as a way to renew and enrich scientific debate. The fourth and final section presents the main open issues where research, case studies, methods and applications still need to make significant progress in the vast domain of weak signal analysis and early detection.

“I have never doubted the truth of signs, Adso; they are the only thing man has with which to orient himself in the world. What I did not understand was the relation among signs.” William of Baskerville, in the Name of the Rose¹

     

Models for designing business situations in the context of mutations

Firms are involved in strategic movements that generate alliances, mergers, acquisitions and divestitures of activities. In this cycle of mutations, change is continuous. Two firms can build an alliance, expand it to other firms, merge, or even dismantle all or any part of their activities. Between competition and cooperation, networks of activities are created and reorganized, contributing to corporate renewal. In such situations, how could information systems provide relevant information for managing mutations and how could they support the global redesign of the strategy, organization and management of firms? In this paper we first give an overview of the mutation process. Then we outline the principles and concepts of an integrated approach to strategy, organization and management in the context of mutations. Third, we present a meta-model based on these principles and concepts that allows the information system to provide models for designing changing configurations of activities. The meta-model can combine strategic, organizational and management thinking. Finally, we propose to look in more detail at the development phase of the mutation process. This brings to the fore the links between economic events and the integrated approach we suggest. © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Charting your company's future

Few companies have a clear strategic vision. The problem, say the authors, stems from the strategic-planning process itself, which usually involves preparing a large document, culled from a mishmash of data provided by people with conflicting agendas. That kind of process almost guarantees an unfocused strategy. Instead, companies should design the strategic-planning process by drawing a picture: a strategy canvas. A strategy canvas shows the strategic profile of your industry by depicting the various factors that affect competition. And it shows the strategic profiles of your current and potential competitors as well as your own company's strategic profile--how it invests in the factors of competition and how it might in the future. The basic component of a strategy canvas--the value curve--is a tool the authors created in their consulting work and have written about in previous HBR articles. This article introduces a four-step process for actually drawing and discussing a strategy canvas. Readers will learn how one European financial services company used this process to create a distinct and easily communicable strategy. The process begins with a visual awakening. Managers compare their business's value curve with competitors' to discover where their strategy needs to change. In the next step--visual exploration--managers do field research on customers and alternative products. At the visual strategy fair, the third step, managers draw new strategic profiles based on field observations and get feedback from customers and peers about these new proposals. Once the best strategy is created from that feedback, it's time for the last step--visual communication. Executives distribute "before" and "after" strategic profiles to the whole company, and only projects that will help move the company closer to the "after" profile are supported.     

Scenario planning interventions in organizations: An analysis of the causes of success and failure

This paper presents a case analysis of a successful scenario intervention in an organization. This intervention is compared and contrasted with an unsuccessful one reported in Hodgkinson and Wright [Confronting strategic inertia in a top management team: learning from failure, Organization Studies 23 (2002)949-977]. We demonstrate that analysis of the answers given by workshop participants in a pre-intervention interview can be helpful in determining the receptiveness of an organization to a subsequent scenario intervention. We theorize that strategic inertia-characterized by coping patterns of bolstering failing strategy, procrastination (over a strategic dilemma) and buck-passing (the responsibility for the dilemma's resolution), can be caused by the psychological attenuation of the perceived level of environmental threat to the organization, culminating in unconflicted adherence to the currently followed strategy. We contend that the expression of such coping behaviour is antithetical to a subsequent successful scenario exercise since, if the exercise fails to identify an unconflicted strategic alternative, the sharp focus of the scenarios on futures unfavourable to business-as-usual strategy will re-activate the cognitive stress-reduction mechanisms. Strategic inertia will thus be reinforced. We conclude with a review of the implications of our diagnosis for reflective practitioners.Our paper is divided into four sections. In Section 1, we overview writings on inertia in strategic decision making. We pay especial attention to identifying potential causes of inertia. Next, we present Janis and Mann's [Decision Making, Free Press, New York, 1979] views of the psychological processes invoked by conflicted decisions and analyse the relevance of this laboratory-based theory to provide a psychological explanation of strategic inertia. Finally, we briefly describe the scenario intervention process and argue that it contains the potential to overcome strategic inertia. In Section 2, we review an already-published study of an unsuccessful scenario planning intervention, which illustrates the operation of components of Janis and Mann's model. Next, in Section 3, we focus on our own case investigation of a successful scenario planning intervention. The early part of this section documents the “success”, whilst the latter part analyses the causes of the success—again using the components of Janis and Mann's model. We conclude in Section 4, where we compare and contrast the application of Janis and Mann's model to both cases and we demonstrate that application of the model to pre-intervention interview data can aid the practitioner determine, at the outset, whether or not the organizational context will be receptive to the intervention.     

Agricultural commodity futures trading based on cross-country rolling quantile return signals

This paper formulates and examines a new type of bivariate time series trading strategy based on signals generated from cross-country quantiles of return distributions. We conduct rolling quantile trading strategies separately in the U.S. and Chinese futures markets for soybeans, wheat, corn and sugar over very short (daily, intraday and overnight) holding periods. Overall, we find that these practical strategies outperform various benchmarks and there is a large profit potential when trades follow quantile-based signals rather than focusing on the median only. The results highlight the value of cross-country trading strategies and the harnessing of information from different parts of the return distributions which have so far been neglected.     

The Big Picture - trends, drivers, wild cards, discontinuities and weak signals

Following work done in the UK, Canada and now starting across Europe,¹ there appears to be renewed interest in charting the boundaries of what to expect between 2010 and 2025 as the character of the 21st century begins to become firmly established. What are the shaping forces, or sources of change and what might be their impacts, particularly where these may create entirely new challenges and opportunities?Futures experts (attendees of the FTA 2008 Conference) were invited to state their opinions on these questions by considering the trends, drivers, wilds cards, discontinuities and weak signals likely to shape the future through the Big Picture Survey. The survey was launched 6 months prior to the Conference. More than 250 responses were submitted by the Conference date. The results collected were synthesised and presented back to the attendees in a plenary presentation by the authors.The current paper aims to clarify the concepts first by suggesting definitions and discussing the distinctions between them. The paper then presents the rationales of conducting the Big Picture Survey (BPS), presents its methodology and discusses the results of the survey in a greater extent.     

The relative contributions of equity and subordinated debt signals as predictors of bank distress during the financial crisis

Bank supervisors utilize early warning signals to predict which banks are likely to become distressed. Previous research has found that market discipline signals do not significantly improve out-of-sample forecasts relative to accounting-based signals. Most of that evidence, however, comes from periods in the 1990s when the U.S. economy and banking system were healthy, potentially neutralizing an advantage of market signals to incorporate new information quickly. For the period between the fourth quarters of 2006 and 2012, we assess the accuracy of two market signals – expected default frequency (EDF) and subordinated note and debenture (SND) yield spreads – relative to accounting-based signals in forecasting which publicly traded BHCs would become distressed. In 2008, EDF signals were relatively more accurate, but they did not lead to economically significant reductions in missed distress events relative to other signals. Supervisors would have been better off devoting slack resources to monitor BHCs with high commercial real estate concentrations. As the crisis subsided, a failure probability model developed from bank failures in the 1980s and early 1990s was consistently the most accurate signal. For the two dozen BHCs with actively traded SNDs, yield spreads over Treasuries were extremely poor predictors of distress because the spreads were distorted by too-big-to-fail subsidies. The Tier 1 leverage ratio was the most accurate distress signal for these large BHCs. In sum, the evidence to justify systematic reliance on market signals by supervisory agencies to forecast bank distress remains weak.     

Tactical allocation in commodity futures markets: Combining momentum and term structure signals

This paper examines the combined role of momentum and term structure signals for the design of profitable trading strategies in commodity futures markets. With significant annualized alphas of 10.14% and 12.66%, respectively, the momentum and term structure strategies appear profitable when implemented individually. With an abnormal return of 21.02%, our double-sort strategy that exploits both momentum and term structure signals clearly outperforms the single-sort strategies. This double-sort strategy can additionally be utilized as a portfolio diversification tool. The abnormal performance of the combined portfolios cannot be explained by a lack of liquidity, data mining or transaction costs.     

Strategic Management Thinking and Practice in the Public Sector: A Strategic Planning for All Seasons?

This paper explores how strategic management thinking manifests itself in strategic management practice in the public sector. Mintzberg's framework of ten strategic management schools of thought is chosen for mapping strategic management thinking. The paper analyses a convenience sample of 35 strategic management processes, observation of an agency's strategy reformulation process and interviews of managers in the public sector in Norway for informing the discussion. Strategic planning is heavily criticised in some of the business strategy literature. The analysis indicates that strategic management in the public sector extensively uses strategic planning, bundled with certain other schools of thought, despite tendencies to downplay formal, mechanistic planning in contemporary strategic management theory.     

Strategy Selection,Surrogation, and Strategic Performance Measurement Systems

Strategic performance measurement systems operationalize firm strategy with a set of performance measures. A consequence of such alignment is the tendency for managers to lose sight of the strategic construct(s) the measures are intended to represent, and subsequently act as though the measures are the constructs of interest, a phenomenon referred to as surrogation. We investigate how involvement in strategy selection affects managers’ propensity to exhibit surrogation. We predict and find that strategy selection reduces surrogation. Surprisingly, we do not find that engaging in strategy deliberation, a key process underlying strategy selection, reduces surrogation. Thus, managers’ involvement in the actual choice of strategy appears to be both a necessary and sufficient condition to mitigate surrogation. Our paper broadens understanding of factors that influence surrogation, such as the effects of different aspects of managers’ strategic involvement and buy‐in. Further, by documenting how managers behave within (as opposed to simply with) strategic performance measurement systems, we highlight the potential for managers to endogenously influence the effectiveness of such systems.     

Marginal consistent dependence modelling using weak subordination for Brownian motions

We present an approach for modelling dependencies in exponential Lévy market models with arbitrary margins originated from time changed Brownian motions. Using weak subordination of Buchmann et al. [Bernoulli, 2017], we face a new layer of dependencies, superior to traditional approaches based on pathwise subordination, since weakly subordinated processes are not required to have independent components considering multivariate stochastic time changes. We apply a subordinator being able to incorporate any joint or idiosyncratic information arrivals. We emphasize multivariate variance gamma and normal inverse Gaussian processes and state explicit formulae for the Lévy characteristics. Using maximum likelihood, we estimate multivariate variance gamma models on various market data and show that these models are highly preferable to traditional approaches. Consistent values of basket-options under given marginal pricing models are achieved using the Esscher transform, generating a non-flat implied correlation surface.     

Integrative strategic performance measurement systems,strategic alignment of manufacturing,learning and strategic outcomes: an exploratory study

There is considerable interest in the role of strategic performance measurement systems (SPMS), such as balanced scorecards, in assisting managers develop competitive strategies. A distinctive feature of SPMS is that they are designed to present managers with financial and non-financial measures covering different perspectives which, in combination, provide a way of translating strategy into a coherent set of performance measures. There appears to be wide variation in how these systems are configured. However, as yet, there has been little consideration given to identifying underlying information characteristics that might help explain how the systems have beneficial effects. This study identifies a key dimension of SPMS, integrative information, as being instrumental in assisting managers deliver positive strategic outcomes. Three interrelated dimensions of integrative SPMS were identified in this study. The first, strategic and operational linkages, was a generic factor that captures the overall extent to which the systems provide for integration between strategy and operations, and integration across elements of the value chain. The second attribute, customer orientation, focuses on customer linkages and includes financial and customer measures. The third dimension, supplier orientation, is based on linkages to suppliers and includes business process and innovation measures. A model is developed that predicts that integrative SPMS will enhance the strategic competitiveness of organizations. It is proposed that the influence of integrative SPMS on strategic outcomes is indirect through the mediating roles of alignment of manufacturing with strategy and organizational learning. Data from a survey of 80 strategic business units provide varying support for the proposed relationships.     

Testing weak form efficiency on the Toronto Stock Exchange

In order to test for weak form efficiency in the market a vast pool of individual stocks must be analyzed rather than a stock market index. In this paper, a model-based bootstrap is used to generate a series of simulated trials and a modified chart pattern recognition algorithm is applied to all stocks listed on the Toronto Stock Exchange (TSX). The number of patterns detected in the original price series is compared with the number of patterns found in the simulated series. By simulating the price path specific time dependencies present in real data are eliminated, making price changes purely random. Patterns, if consistently identified, carry information which adds value to the investment process, however, this informativeness does not guarantee profitability. Conclusions are drawn on the relative efficiency of some sectors of the economy. Although the null hypothesis of weak form efficiency on the TSX cannot be rejected, some sectors of the Canadian economy appear to be less efficient than others. In addition, pattern frequencies appear to be negatively dependent on the two moments of return distributions, variance and kurtosis.