Long-range planning in the public sector

This article discusses suitable frameworks for long-range planning in the public sector. Specific attention is devoted to defence planning, because of the impact planning methodology in defence has had on other government sectors. Operations research, programme budgeting, and scenario techniques are cases in point. A number of different planning approaches are outlined, but the difficulty of transferring planning systems between different fields of application is emphasised. Even if programme budgeting is thought of as a long-range planning system, additional components and approaches, such as various types of futures studies, may be needed.     

大学生学习生涯规划研究

学习生涯规划是职业生涯规划在大学阶段学业方面的体现,大学生有效进行学习生涯规划和高校保障大学生有效进行学习生涯规划,有利于增强大学生学习的主动性和目标性,引导大学生顺利完成学业、更好就业。本文针对大学生学习生涯规划中存在的一系列问题,从学生自身和学校的角度提出改善大学生学习生涯规划的建议,强调通过建立全程化的学习生涯规划指导体系,提升大学生的学习生涯规划能力。     

Perceived Environmental Uncertainty in scenario planning

Scenario planning is a strategy tool with growing popularity in both academia and practical situations. Current practices of scenario planning are largely based on existing literature which utilises scenario planning to develop strategies for the future, primarily considering the assessment of perceived macro-external environmental uncertainties. However there is a body of literature hitherto ignored by scenario planning researchers, which suggests that Perceived Environmental Uncertainty (PEU) influences the micro-external as well as the internal environment of the organisation. This paper reviews the most dominant theories on scenario planning process and PEU, developing three propositions for the practice of scenario planning process. Furthermore, it shows how these propositions can be integrated in the scenario planning process in order to improve the development of strategy.     

Effects of risk tolerance,financial literacy,and financial status on retirement planning

In this study, we investigate the effects of retirement planning on the economic and psychological factors of consumers using a large sample drawn from the 2012 National Longitudinal Survey of Youth. Specifically, we examine the combined impact of risk tolerance, financial literacy, savings, income, and debt on consumers’ retirement planning behavior. Risk tolerance, financial literacy, income, and savings are all found to have positive relationships with retirement planning, though debt has no significant relationship with retirement planning. Also, higher levels of risk tolerance weaken the relationship between savings and retirement planning. Implications of these findings for the literature and the financial planning industry are provided as well as directions for future research.

     

非英语专业学生看图作文构思策略的研究

本研究基于Hayers和Nash的写作构思分类,通过量化的研究手段,探讨在看图作文语料中,非英语专业学生的作文成绩与构思策略的关系.研究表明学生的作文成绩与语言构思显著相关,与解题、内容构思、结构构思不相关.不同水平学生在语言构思上有差异,在其他几项策略上没有显著差异.但高水平学生更注重结构构思,低水平学生更注重内容构思.女生在语言构思上与男生有差异,在其他几项策略上没有显著差异,但女生的结构构思策略要高于男生,而男生的内容构思策略高于女生.同时也反映出与写作活动有关的情境问题以及构思和中西思维模式等方面的问题.     

Connecting adaptation and strategy: The role of evolutionary theory in scenario planning

In this study, evolutionary theory is used to analyze and critique the strategic process of scenario planning. We argue that scenario planning can be strengthened as a theory- and practice-oriented process through the incorporation of evolutionary theory in the scenario narrative process, and in the subsequent implementation phases in response to environmental change. First, this paper addresses scenario planning in relation to theoretical perspectives on strategic planning and forecasting. Then, the concepts of variation, selection, retention, organizational learning and inertia are used to analyze scenario planning as a strategic process. This study argues that because scenario planning mirrors modes of variation and selection at the organizational level, evolutionary theory is a useful approach for assessing the plausibility of scenario narratives and strengthening the theoretical foundation of scenario planning as a process. By utilizing an evolutionary framework throughout the scenario planning process, this method has a better chance of encouraging exploratory strategic thinking without reinforcing non-blind variation or inertial practices. Concepts including inertia can also be used to better address bias and myopia in the scenario planning process. Additionally, evolutionary theory can be used to assess how entities learn from the outcomes of scenario planning as the environment changes over time.     

基于企业战略的税收筹划优化思考

企业战略与税收筹划是目标与手段的关系,企业战略是企业的整体和长远目标,税收筹划是实现该目标的具体手段,应服从于企业战略。应从市场竞争战略、投资战略、成本战略、价值链角度四个方面,优化税收筹划,以有效实现企业战略目标。     

不同生命周期阶段的上市公司税收筹划行为研究

有效税收筹划不仅要降低企业的税收成本,还要努力降低税收筹划的非税成本。非税成本因其隐蔽性、间接性而容易被忽视,因而可能使税收筹划的成本（损失）大于其收益。非税成本的形成原因较多、其构成也比较复杂。文章选取沪深A股2008-2012年期间的4974家上市公司作为研究对象,运用多元线性回归模型检验了不同生命周期阶段的上市公司如何在税收节约与非税成本之间进行权衡。经验证据显示,处于成长期和衰退期的上市公司更倾向于采用积极的税收筹划行为,而处于成熟期的上市公司更倾向于采取较为保守稳健的税收筹划行为。结论为企业制定投资策略,监管机制完善管理提供了较好的理论基础。     

CAP Forum on E‐Business: E‐Commerce and Tax Planning: Canadian Experiences*

This paper explores the deployment of e‐commerce by Canadian firms in the global marketplace, with an emphasis on the implications of e‐commerce for tax planning. The business press and various government task forces have discussed challenges raised by e‐commerce for traditional “source‐based” tax systems; however, these discussions have presented little evidence of firms' reliance on e‐commerce for tax‐planning purposes. Similarly, academic research has seldom examined whether firms' decisions to implement e‐commerce are by tax‐planning considerations. It is thus largely unknown whether firms actively consider taxation issues when evaluating e‐commerce, how the factors that have been identified as influencing decisions to implement e‐commerce systems are balanced against tax‐planning considerations, and what barriers might exist in practice to using e‐commerce for tax planning. We choose a qualitative interview‐based approach to explore these issues. Our findings suggest that tax planning is not considered by most of our respondent companies in their decisions to deploy e‐commerce. The companies we interviewed tended to implement e‐commerce over several years, starting with back‐office technologies like enterprise resource planning (ERP) systems. Accordingly, the ability to perform online sales transactions, which is a key component of using e‐commerce for tax planning, often was not yet in place. One implication of these results is that if concerns over tax revenue losses are realistic, tax policymakers may have some time to refine tax legislation to address the challenges raised by e‐commerce.     

Scenario planning at business unit level

The scenario planning literature is focused on corporate level interventions. There is a general consensus on the method, but there is little debate about the stages involved in building and using the scenarios. This article presents a case study of a scenario planning intervention, which was conducted at a business unit of the British division of one of the largest beauty and cosmetic products multinationals. The method adopted in this case study has some fundamental differences to the existing models used at corporate level. This research is based on the principles of autoethnography, since its purpose is to present self-critical reflections, enhanced by reflective and reflexive conversations on a scenario planning method used at business unit level. The critical reflections concern a series of critical incidents which distinguish this method from existing intuitive logic scenario planning models which are used at corporate level planning. Ultimately this article contributes to the scenario planning method literature by providing insights into its practice at business unit level.     

高校基建投资计划管理工作的几点思考

随着高等教育投资体制改革的不断深入,高校的发展面临前所未有的机遇与风险,如何有效利用基本建设资金,提高投资效益,是高校投资计划管理部门应该深入思考的问题。本文从高校基本建设项目规划、立项管理、前期设计、施工、工程结算等方面,阐述了如何加强高校投资计划管理工作。     

AN OVERALL STRUCTURE FOR MANAGEMENT PLANNING AND CONTROL*

There has been criticism of the lack of attention given by the academic community to overall planning theory. To develop an overall structure for management planning and control is the purpose of this study. Some writers classify plans according to their time span, for example, long, medium and short range, but we attempt to classify them in relation to management functions. Several conceptual and operational planning models are examined, and a structure similar to the consensus emerging from these is presented. Decisions and decision models are examined and integrated with the various levels of the management process and thus an overall framework is developed.     

Perceptions of the relationship between scenario planning and firm performance: A qualitative study

This paper presents research findings from the application of scenario planning in multinational firms that operate in competitive industries. We use exclusive and not publicly available data to investigate the link between scenario planning and firm performance from a qualitative perspective. The focus was primarily on firms that had real-life experiences with this strategic tool. Our research suggests that scenario planning is interwoven in how strategy is formulated and that it has a major influence on decisions taken by management. We also found that none of the firms reported formal efforts of assessing the success rate of scenario planning. Participants report that this is due to difficulties in measuring qualitative and quantitative outcomes and because standardized assessment tools are not readily available for this kind of strategic intervention. Overall, participants generally regarded scenario planning as an effective intervention with a positive contribution to the firms’ performance. When pressed for more detail, participants revealed that scenario planning techniques were useful in exploring the business environment and future risks, isolating trends, understanding interdependent forces, and considering the implications of strategic decision-making.     

税收筹划行为的不同经济学视角分析

作为税收筹划理论的基础,经济学正经历着从主流经济学到现代经济学的关键性挑战,尤其是行为经济学,虽然只有短短几十年的发展,但从心理学和经济学角度掀起了经济学对不确定条件决策行为的大探讨,对未来经济学的发展起到了预见性的引领作用;当前税收筹划行为也面临着行为经济学视角下的质疑和探讨。本文经过对税收筹划行为在主流经济学和行为经济学视角下不同特点的分析,得出:行为经济学作为经济领域未来发展的重要学派之一,在解释税收筹划行为方面具有更强的可操作性和实用性,比主流经济学具有更广阔的应用空间和领域;具有更强的理论和实践的指导意义。     

我国计划生育保险试点实施情况调查报告

中国计划生育家庭面临着诸多风险,今天我们在考虑建立农村社会保障体系时,应该优先考虑对这一重点人群实行重点突破。以实际调查数据和各试点单位数据,在进行分析计划生育保险的赔付率、各险种的参保比例、保费来源的比例以及赔付率等方面基础上,对计划生育保险的实施情况进行简单评估,并就计划生育保险平稳运行提出若干建议。     

The futures field: Functions,forms, and critical issues

Institutional forms in the futures field should be founded on the functions to be performed. These functions are viewed in relation to the contribution of visionaries to more and better images of the future; to a family of related analytical activities aimed at enhancing intentionality and explicitness in planning and decision making; and to a variety of grass-roots movements aimed at encouraging participatory social planning. Five basic functionsgoals formulation; methods development; applications; coupling; implementation—are explored and some existing institutional forms are examined: image generators; research organisations; corporate or government planning groups; and citizen groups. These provide guidelines for the possible development of modified institutional forms and their orientation.     

Banks as Tax Planning Intermediaries

We provide the first large‐scale empirical evidence of banks functioning as tax planning intermediaries. We posit that some banks specialize in assisting corporate clients with tax planning. In this role, banks make use of their centrality in financial relationships; access to private information; and ability to structure, execute, and participate in tax planning transactions for clients. We measure bank‐client relationships using loan contracts and measure client tax planning using either the cash effective tax rate or the unrecognized tax benefit balance. Using a difference‐in‐differences design, we find that firms experience meaningful tax reductions when they begin a relationship with a bank whose existing clients engage in above‐median tax planning. The effects of pairing with such tax intermediary banks are concentrated in relationships with larger or longer maturity loans, clients with foreign income or greater credit risk, and when the bank is an industry specialist or has above‐median investment banking activities. Finally, we find that potential clients are more likely to choose tax intermediary banks than nontax intermediary banks, suggesting that tax intermediary banks benefit by attracting new business. Collectively, our results suggest that some banks act as tax planning intermediaries, a role beyond the traditional one of financial intermediary.     

Scenario projects in Japanese government: Strategic approaches for overcoming psychological and institutional barriers

Scenario planning in the public sector has significant differences from scenario planning in the corporate world. Scenario planning in the government not only tends to be focused on issues of higher complexity and significance to public policy, but also in comparison to people in the private business, public officials have fundamental psychological and institutional constraints in their scenario thinking. These constraints make it difficult for them to contemplate multiple ‘untidy’ futures and imagine the possibility of policy failure: skills which are essential for successful scenario projects. Based on specific characteristics of scenario planning in the Japanese government, this paper contributes on better understanding the challenges and strategic solutions in providing more successful scenario planning in the public sector. Specifically, this paper argues that possible solutions in overcoming these constraints may be to shake public bureaucrats out of their thinking by providing free and open venues of conversation and more importantly through ‘derailment’ exercises.     

Accounting Students’ Planning,Writing, and Performance on a Time‐Constrained Case Analysis: Effects of Self‐Talk and Prior Achievement

When writing a case analysis, most students first allocate time to plan the content and structure of their response, and then proceed to write with differing degrees of urgency, the outcomes of which are case responses of differing quality. This study examines the extent to which planning time influences writing urgency and, ultimately, the quality of case responses in a time‐constrained setting. It also investigates whether these behaviors and outcomes depend on students’ frame of mind, by experimentally inducing differing types of pre‐examination self‐talk. Analyses show that planning time was negatively associated with writing urgency; students who spent more time planning subsequently wrote with less urgency. Writing urgency was positively associated with case response quality and, after controlling for differences in writing urgency, planning time was positively associated with response quality. Results indicate that different planning and writing behaviors can be induced by different forms of self‐talk prior to the writing task. Relative to interrogative self‐talk (“Will I …?”), exclamatory self‐talk (“I will …!”) caused higher‐achieving students to spend more time planning, but then write with less urgency and subsequently produce lower‐quality case responses. Conversely, after engaging in exclamatory rather than interrogative self‐talk, lower‐achieving students spent less time planning but then wrote with greater urgency and produced higher‐quality responses. These results indicate that (i) planning significantly affects writing and performance, (ii) students can influence their own planning behavior through pre‐task self‐talk, but (iii) pre‐task self‐talk can be beneficial or detrimental depending on students’ prior achievement.