Cultural diversity and sustainable futures

This article outlines an approach to the analysis of alternative cultural futures using methods of cultural accounting and scenario analysis. These techniques are developed using a cultural matrix defined by the interrela- tionships between knowledge, technology and the natural environment. Although the methods are illustrated using hypothetical scenarios and stylized data, they may be applied to a variety of culturally diverse societies.     

Domestic futures and sustainable residential development

Domestic ‘futures’ have been a long time coming. This paper questions the extent to which futuristic ‘vision’ linked to the rhetoric and sentiment of ‘sustainable development’ and the ‘livable city’ inform town and regional planning in England and Canada. Despite official commitment to ‘environmental’ objectives and media interest in ‘ecotech’ residential development, markets institutions and behaviour lag behind what is technically possible. Planning guidance encourages homes with less environmental impact. But this message has not reached most residential consumers. Is lack of mass markets in low impact housing a flaw in Government regulation, evidence of the cynical nature of official rhetoric, or proof of gradual product development as society redefines what is expected of living spaces? Or is it unwise to expect too much change in attitudes to property, or for innovation to come soon?     

Emerging technologies in favour of sustainable agriculture

European agricultural systems are going through a modernisation process involving radical structural changes. To tackle these important challenges, technology foresight has been employed as a systematic, participatory, intelligence gathering exercise focusing on future R&D investments in sustainable agricultural systems and green technologies. Because reliable data on emerging technology are scarce, any assessment has to be based to a large extent on qualitative methods and on an operational conception of sustainability using priority indicators. The paper describes the Danish Green Technological Foresight on Environmental Friendly Agriculture (GTFEFA). It treats this as a case study and examines the way in which a group of interested parties arrived at recommendations on the application of a number of emerging agriculture-related technologies. Two questions are then addressed: Can technological foresight simultaneously: (1) systematically describe and evaluate the consequences of employing emerging technologies in order to choose between alternatives, and (2) prioritise investments in emerging technologies so as to favour innovation. The discussion here is intended to help meet the challenge of operationalising the term ‘sustainability’, so that environmental friendly agricultural technology can be assessed against priority indicators. Finally, it is suggested that, provided that clear criteria for assessing the sustainability of emerging technologies are identified and made explicit, technology foresight offers a space for dialogue and exploration in contested territory.     

Global issues and futures: A theory and pedagogy for heuristic modeling

Most futures methodologies might be termed “heuristic”, that is a way to promote learning, discovery, and problem solving through trial and error. This paper describes one such approach, used primarily in teaching a Masters planning program class Global Issues and Futures in a class designed to raise awareness of a variety of global concerns. After explaining the underlying framework and concepts, and their foundation in previous futures studies, the core equations, data, and a classroom application are described. The method serves primarily to raise questions rather than answer them; to broaden the perspective that students will bring to their later careers.¹     

No-arbitrage conditions for storable commodities and the modeling of futures term structures

One distinguishable feature of storable commodities is that they relate to two markets: cash market and storage market. This paper proves that, if no arbitrage exists in the storage-cash dual markets, the commodity convenience yield has to be non-negative. However, classical reduced-form models for futures term structures could allow serious arbitrages due to the high volatility of the convenience yield. To avoid negative convenience yield, this paper proposes a semi-affine arbitrage-free model, which prices futures analytically and fits futures term structures reasonably well. Importantly, our model prices commodity-related contingent claims (such as calendar spread options) quite differently with classical models.     

Alternative futures for communities

Scenario building is an essential element for working on, and creating, alternative futures. This paper, based on the work at the Institute of Alternative Futures, discusses the use of scenarios in the context of community development and explores three basic types of scenarios—‘the official future', ‘hard times' and paradigm shift or visionary scenarios. With examples from Washington and elsewhere, the paper tries to show how communities can reinvent themselves and meet the challenges of the future with the aid of scenarios.     

Design futures in action: Documenting experiential futures for participatory audiences

The futures field demonstrates a willing openness in embracing methodologies, approaches, and influences from a diversity of disciplines and perspectives. This plurality of practice is evidenced in a growing body of work that increasingly embodies futures thinking in the design of everyday material and networked experiences. The intersection of design and futures produces artifacts, applications and interactions created to provoke dialog in an accessible manner. As part of the Futures special issue on the Emerge: Artists and Scientists Redesign the Future event, this article describes the documentation and public representation of the creative outcomes from nine Emerge design futures workshops. These workshops provided a rich opportunity to study how designers and futurists collaboratively engage, implement and communicate alternative futures. The goal of the documentation effort described is to capture the experience of creating experiential futures and extend the capacity for developing social foresight through a participatory exhibit and online social platform.     

New challenges for futures studies

Challenges coming from futures studies to other disciplines because of the rapidity and inter-relatedness of changes for which no discipline on its own can face the different correlated and global challenges, will be examined mainly in relation to social sciences. social sciences on the other hand reflect the need to overcome fragmentation within each discipline and between the various social sciences, in an effort at least of interdisciplinarity to face the growing uncertainty in decision making at every level: local, national and international. Social sciences are also slowly realising that a future oriented perspective is needed to empower analysis and actually reflect society in its continuous dynamicity. Citizens need the possibility to live within the rapidity of changes in the Information Society through the availability of futures studies in different forms as well as social analysis that is dynamic and interdisciplinary. The special link between society and ecological issues in a future oriented perspective will be the specific area to express the relevancy of the correlation between futures studies and social sciences.     

Setting the futures margin with price limits: the case for single-stock futures

Price limits are artificial boundaries established by regulators to establish the maximum price movement permitted in a single day. We propose using a new censoring method that incorporates the effect of price limits on the futures price distribution and investigates how to set an appropriate daily margin level using single-stock futures in Taiwan. We compare our estimations with those obtained using the method in Longin (J Bus 69:383–408, 1999). The results show that (1) the margin levels derived from the Longin method, which ignore price limits in the estimation, are lower than those in our censoring method; and (2) the legal margin for single-stock futures set at 13.5 % by the Taiwan Futures Exchange to avoid default risk appears to be too high.     

Preparing for the professional futures field:: Observations from the UHCLC futures program

The futures field is an arena of increasing interest and activity. This article seeks to: (1) provide general information about key information sources for directed inquiry into futures studies; (2) sketch the origins and current status of the graduate program in Studies of the Future offered by the University of Houston at Clear Lake City—currently the largest and most comprehensive program of its kind; (3) Describe the methodology used in a recent strategic planning and program development project to update the UHCLC program; and (4) convey some guiding observations on teaching and research in futures studies, and on helping students find appropriate employment.     

股指期货会计处理

股指期货作为衍生金融工具,其确认和计量的具体账务处理,涉及新的《金融工具确认和计量》、《金融资产转移》、《套期保值》和《金融工具列报》等几个准则及其应用指南,以及应用指南所附＂会计科目和主要账务处理”的“衍生工具”、“套期工具”等若干会计科目的使用说明。     

Alternative futures for a multi-civilizational Europe

This article discusses the alternative futures for a multi-civilizational European Union; in other words, its capacity to embrace non-Western civilizations such as the Indian, Islamic, Chinese and others. It brings out three scenarios: (1) a Eurocentric future; (2) a pragmatically multi-civilizational European Union; and (3) a multi-civilizational European Union. Normatively, the third scenario, a genuinely multi-civilizational future appears the most preferred alternative for the rise of European Union as a respected and credible global actor, which plays a significant role in the stabilization and development of its neighbourhood regions and in the resolution of global level issues. Along with incentives, barriers, as discussed in relevant sections, are also explicit which might lead to two other scenarios if not eliminated. Practically, the article concludes that the co-existence of European and other civilizations within the European Union is more likely to lead to a multi-civilizational future than any attempt to integrate those civilizations within the dominant European tradition.     

Dilemmas for renewal of futures methodology

Using the so-called Transition Paradox for methodological renewal in futures studies, this article derives one paradox plus six dilemmas. The analysis concludes that methodological renewal should be embedded in the renewal of science. The power of new paradigms depends on how much they serve the long run welfare, stability and existence of the whole world population. Methods — and the breakthrough strategies of the East-Central European countries — are intended not only for outlining visions, but also for creating their technological, institutional and other foundations so that they do not remain merely utopias.     

A new logical model for futures research

The author argues against traditional logic based on unidirectional causality and classical physics because it has led planners and policy makers to believe that universality and homogeneity are desirable goals for society. Biological and social processes have been shown to thrive on complexity and heterogeneity and this approach to futures research should be developed further.