Sustainable development of agricultural systems: competing objectives and critical limits

The sustainability of agricultural systems has become a major focus for debates about future human survival. Much of the argument appears to rely on simplistic interpretation of ecological models, and fails adequately to define what sustainability objectives are being sought. We explore the implications of two alternative approaches to agricultural sustainability: the Critical Limits view which would require future farming systems to accept the ecosystem-imposed limits on the number of people in the world and the lifestyle they can enjoy; and the Competing Objectives view would balance agricultural sustainability with economic viability, reduction of environmental harm and fulfilling public demands for food and landscape benefits. The development of farming systems of the future will depend on which of these views is adopted by planners and policy makers.This paper challenges some of the ecological assumptions underlying the Critical Limits approach and questions the conventional view that extensive farming systems are more sustainable agriculturally than intensive systems. We may be able to deal more effectively with the environmental side effects of intensive farming systems by treating them as unwanted externalities and taking direct action to avoid or remove them rather than attempting to change fundamentally the nature of modern farming systems.To cope with the increasingly complexity and inter-connectedness of modern farming systems in the context of globalisation and potential perturbations like climate change, we need a pluralistic approach to policy, which can cope with the high levels of uncertainty in these areas and which allows maximum flexibility of response to changing circumstances.     

Island futures—Does a participatory scenario process capture the common view of local residents?

Scenarios are often developed by small groups of motivated individuals, but how representative are they of community views of desirable futures? A scenario process in the coastal community of Vega in central Norway was complemented by a survey among 200 community residents in which respondents rated a preferred development option from a series of future choices and dilemmas. While the scenario process produced novelty and diversity in thinking about the future, the common community view reflects a more traditionalistic view of the future. Tourism was identified as a key economic opportunity in the scenario process, but the larger island community has little faith in tourism as a future cornerstone of economic development and would rather rely on traditional sectors like agriculture and fisheries. The scenarios brought out richness in future development options, highlighted place identity and support for heritage conservation based on wise use of natural resources. The scenarios were less suited for making decisions about economic investments, but produced salient information about opportunities, uncertainties and complexities of the future. Findings show the need to compliment scenario processes where a small group explores “possible futures” with surveys to explore the wider populations’ views about “preferred futures”.     

Letter from the oasis: Helping engineering students to become sustainability professionals

Sustainability scientists call for education that produces ‘sustainability professionals’, who understand the need for sustainability and can work towards it. However, students often have very different ideas, usually based on an expectation of continued unlimited economic growth. This paper, based on research with large, diverse, first year engineering cohorts, argues that a reflective process and on-line support can contribute to a learning oasis—a supportive environment that encourages students to leave their cultural and intellectual comfort zones. In these circumstances, most students will engage with the personal and professional challenges of what it means to be Globo sapiens, a wise global citizen and global sustainability professional for an increasingly complex century.¹     

Three scenarios for the greater Hamburg region

In this paper, three scenarios for the metropolitan region of Hamburg within the next 30 years are presented. The scenarios are based on an assessment of decisions, opportunities and bottlenecks faced by the region in the areas of economic restructuring, demographic and societal changes, city-development and environmental changes. Many core questions that the region is dealing with are representative for Western European cities and highly industrialised regions worldwide. Accordingly, insights gained about strategies and future possibilities for the study region may be of use to other metropolitan regions. Extensive expert interviews were combined with a comparative analysis of the strong and weak points in the development of Hamburg and other big cities to identify trends and critical and strategic success factors. It is argued that economic, political, societal and environmental processes evolve in close interdependency and need to be treated in conjunction. A central question in this context is the meaning of radically different routes of port development—expansion, re-orientation and discontinuation—for the city's economy, the region's environment and socio-cultural renewal. Beneficial outcomes for quality of life, economic development and environmental state are generally found to depend on a combination of economic, societal and political requirements.     

Toward governance for future generations: How do we change course?

In 1987, the UN World Commission on Environment and Development—perhaps better known as the Brundtland Commission—concluded that our present societal course is irresponsible toward future generations. Ten years later, we have hardly come closer to a solution of our planet's long-range problems. But how do we change the course? Are there viable pathways that can take us from the present stalemate to a society that cares for future generations? The bottleneck is not a lack of good proposals for approaching sustainability. It is rather the lack of strength to implement them. Discussions about strategies and motors of social change have very often been absent on the `green' agenda, but exceptions do exist. This article will present and analyse main strategic profiles within an expanding flora of literature about sustainability.     

Food Security Challenge of Climate Change: An Analysis for Policy Selection

Food security and the ability to meet this fundamental need is without a doubt an important objective to all nations. This study deals with climate change adaptation and its costs-benefits with an empirical analysis optimizing food security related adaptation strategy over a 50-year time frame. An Empirical Dynamic Commutable General Equilibrium Model for Climate and the Economy (EDCGECE) is applied to describe the potential effects of climate change on food security and examine the implications of future strategies for Malaysia. Specifically, this study considers the potential effects of climate change on food security and explores the prioritizing of mitigation options. Different scenarios show a baseline scenario without adaptation action followed by introduction of adaptation actions. The analysis reveals important contrasts from baseline to future options over time. The results indicate that food sustainability gap in Malaysia is about 30–35% below the national targets in 2015 (baseline) and the gap is rising over time due to climatic effects in agriculture. However, applying different levels of adaptation actions, (e.g. 5–20%) food security gaps are reduced over time considerably. The projected adaptation strategies applied in this study would be effective and helpful to support sustainable food security related strategies in Malaysia.     

Predicaments in the futures of ageing democracies

Ageing societies need to supply support to an ever growing segment of elderly dependent population without compromising the future sustainability for the currently young or unborn population. Current tendencies to focus on policy solutions like automatic stabilisers and norm-based pre-commitment strategies with decisions delegated to experts carry a high risk of political breakdown when the future population re-evaluates this with new information. Using the Swedish pension reform as a concrete example we show how the futurity problem associated with the current non-existence of the future population makes the political process prone to avoid bringing issues with very long horizons into the public debate. Alternative demographic scenarios for Sweden are used to illustrate how even very small variations in the assumptions of demographic projections lead to radically different future population structures. Hence, the majority preferences in a distant future cannot be foreseen. Adding to this, the complex interactions with a changing environment of technology and nature time-consistent decision making at the far future horizon must be virtually impossible. Thus, the sustainability of long-term social security systems requires constitutional balances that provide for orderly and continual adaptation rather than once-for-all fixes that are likely to be rejected by future electorates.     

Mapping future through the study of the past and present: Estonian suburbia

One of the most visible features in Estonian settlement pattern has in the last decade been the emergence of residential developments, which are primarily situated amidst former agricultural landscapes. The planners and policy-makers often approach the urban sprawl as problematic and unprecedented in the history in this part of Europe and take the current situation as a baseline or Ground Zero in developing future scenarios. The objective of our research is to demonstrate that rapid change and adaptation have been the rule rather than an exception in Estonia (as elsewhere in the Western world) in the last century. Adopting a longer time perspective and advocating a relational rather than oppositional approach to rural and urban, nature and culture, as well as the insider and outsider perspectives and public and private spheres may be useful for understanding the spatial frame and historical context in drafting scenarios. Sketching personal narratives of place that have a focus on the choices made in the past and their physical expressions as indicated on the maps, future options and visions are illustrated. We explore the domestic entanglements of rural and urban in two specific locations in Estonia to find ways to loosen the hold of dualisms and outsider-insider perspectives and to construct a more relational approach. Shifting perspectives may help to demonstrate that the urban sprawl with its cultural and ecological consequences is a part of a continuing process not something negative or new. Mapping the personal and place history illustrates the variety and contributes to ceasing the possibilities instead of tackling the uncertainties as sustainability problems.     

Sustainability in the prospective scenarios methods: A case study of scenarios for biodiesel industry in Brazil,for 2030

In order to build prospective scenarios for biodiesel industry in Brazil, with a sustainable perspective, it was necessary to develop a cross-disciplinary work to include Sachs’ dimensions of sustainability into the scenarios method. This meant linking concepts from different disciplines, without transforming it in a new discipline. In order to support the proposition for the new method, a study case is presented, the framework for the biodiesel scenarios in Brazil, by 2030. An in-depth interview was used to test the proposition of having the sustainability dimensions as driving forces. The result was the identification of a critical uncertainty composed of various aspects related the response to climate change and environmental conservation. The scenario storylines that were developed based on the critical uncertainties showed that sustainable options for the future are possible if the mental maps are enlarged to see beyond the business as usual.The results show that the scenarios storylines go through social, environmental and economic aspects, supported by other aspects like the territorial and political. Also it showed that sustainable options are possible if the mental maps are enlarged to see beyond the business as usual.     

International Futures (IFs) and integrated,long-term forecasting of global transformations

The International Futures (IFs) long-term global forecasting system, with a development history spanning 40 years, has deep roots in world modeling and integrated assessment modeling. Its highly integrated models span demographics, economics, education, health, governance, agriculture, energy, infrastructure and the environment. The open-source system is available for stand-alone use and on the web with an interactive interface and a large supporting database. IFs users represent education, government (national and international), non-governmental organizations, firms, and policy research organizations. This paper uses IFs to provide Base Case forecasts of global transformations that appear to be unfolding in human development (special attention to education and aging), social development (distribution and power), and the relationship of humans with their environment (advancing mastery and sustainability challenges). It illustrates scenario analysis with alternative forecasts of global poverty, carbon emissions, global patterns of national governance, the human development index, and food and agricultural development. The paper concludes by noting that such modeling and forecasting, while much advanced since the 1970s, still marries craft-like art with advancing science.     

US Families 2025: In search of future families

Parenting defines and cultivates gender roles for men and women, from both biological and cultural angles. From scanning the latest trends, issues, and social pulses on parenting, families and the gender roles encapsulated, it is evident that changes are taking place: dual-income families, a health insurance crisis, family-work conflicts, bioengineering, same-sex marriage, and increasing health concerns — just some of the issues — are changing in the US, while families and gender roles are being shaped and reshaped in the process. In this article, four alternative future scenarios generate implications that challenge mainstream assumptions about the future of parenting and reveal possibilities for future male and female roles. Four scenarios (Mr. & Mrs. Right Now, Marriage Marketplace, The New Waltons for the 21st Century, and Desperate Housewives) emerged from an informal workshop held at the University of Houston, Clear Lake (UHCL) February 19, 2005.     

Carrot or stick: Impacts of alternative climate and energy policy scenarios on agriculture

The climate and energy strategy of the European Union presents the aims for all economic sectors to cut carbon dioxide emissions. In this paper, we studied what kind of conflicts, synergies, opportunities and control measures the climate and energy policy brings to farms in Finland. We used the Delphi method to assess possible outcomes of three scenarios based on the strength of mitigation policy. The scenarios scrutinised were (1) Baseline, (2) Tight Control and (3) Energy Plus Food. These scenarios create different adaptive needs and measures on farms. Baseline scenario follows the present and forthcoming development in agriculture and Tight Control scenario, in turn, constitutes all possible mitigation measures recently introduced in the scientific discussion. In Energy Plus Food scenario, farms increasingly produce renewable energy in addition to food and, therefore, have new opportunities to develop their businesses. The Delphi panel estimated how the farms would cope with different future developments represented by the scenarios. Based on our results, it is evident that interdisciplinary analysis in research and inter-sectoral cooperation between agricultural and energy policies are required.     

加大我国农业财政投入规模的对策建议

改革开放以来,我国的农业投入不足,财政对农业的实际支持程度不高,这也是制约我国农业现代化进程的重要制约因素。农业是国民经济和社会发展的基础,当前我国农业正迈向现代化发展的重要阶段,农业发展急需加大财政投入规模。本文运用统计一般描述法,分析了我国农业财政投入绝对与相对规模,得出农业财政投入绝对规模在不断加大,但是从相对规模看,财政支农支出占财政总支出的比重来看却呈现持续下降的趋势;财政支农支出占农业GDP的比重变化具有十分明显的波动性和阶段性。根据这一结论,提出增加财政收入,加大农业投入力度,把握重点投入,提高农业财政资金使用效率,促进农业投资的法制化与规范化等政策建议。     

Australian futures: Freshwater ecosystems and human water usage

Historical legacies of land-use change together with growing demands for water resources from agricultural, industrial and urban sectors have extensively degraded many of the freshwater ecosystems of Australia. Recent and rapid declines in the condition of these ecosystems indicate that current patterns of water consumption are ecologically unsustainable, particularly in agricultural landscapes. We use three scenarios of water resource use and development over the next 50 years to examine the implications of each in terms of their likely impact on freshwater ecosystems. These scenarios encompass agricultural, industrial and urban water use, and propose trends in water use and management rather than a specific set of predictions. We see two of these scenarios, those of business-as-usual and economic growth, as being ecologically unsustainable, leading to significant declines in the biodiversity and functioning of freshwater ecosystems. Only under our ecological-sustainability scenario do we foresee possible large-scale improvements in the condition of Australia's aquatic ecosystems. This scenario will require major shifts in water use patterns and require careful planning and consideration of a range of social and economic issues. In all scenarios large-scale ecosystem drivers, such as climate change and salinity, will become major impediments to improvements in the ecological condition of aquatic ecosystems.     

The U.S. current account deficit and the expected share of world output

We investigate the possibility that the large current account deficits of the U.S. are the outcome of optimizing behavior. We develop a simple long-run world equilibrium model in which the current account is determined by the expected discounted present value of its future share of world GDP relative to its current share of world GDP. The model suggests that under some reasonable assumptions about future U.S. GDP growth relative to the rest of the advanced countries—more modest than the growth over the past 20 years—the current account deficit is near optimal levels. We then explore the implications for the real exchange rate. Under some plausible assumptions, the model implies little change in the real exchange rate over the adjustment path, though the conclusion is sensitive to assumptions about tastes and technology. Then we turn to empirical evidence. A test of current account sustainability suggests that the U.S. is not keeping on a long-run sustainable path. A direct test of our model finds that the dynamics of the U.S. current account—the increasing deficits over the past decade—are difficult to explain under a particular statistical model (Markov-switching) of expectations of future U.S. growth. But, if we use survey data on forecasted GDP growth in the G-7, our very simple model appears to explain the evolution of the U.S. current account remarkably well. We conclude that expectations of robust performance of the U.S. economy relative to the rest of the advanced countries is a contender—though not the only legitimate contender—for explaining the U.S. current account deficit.     

Foresight analysis of agricultural sector at regional level

The objective of this paper is to carry out a foresight analysis of the agricultural sector in Castilla y León (Spain) for 2020. The methodology used to build the various scenarios is prospective analysis. We first performed a structural analysis in order to identify the key driving forces that characterize the evolution of the sector in this region (agricultural production, demand for agricultural products and institutional framework). We then carried out a morphological analysis that generated a range of “partial scenarios” from which we finally built four “global scenarios”. These last scenarios characterize the possible trends in the variables of change previously identified. Lastly, the common key parameters of each global scenario were quantified by means of the Delphi method. The characterization of scenarios has a double practical interest. First of all, they can explain the cause-effect relationships of the processes of change that affect agriculture in this region of Spain. Secondly, they are a powerful tool to stimulate an in-depth reflection of how the design and implementation of current agricultural policies will affect the already fragile agricultural sector of Castilla y León. This study thus aims to support decision-making processes at regional level.     

Future visioning of local climate change: A framework for community engagement and planning with scenarios and visualisation

There is an urgent need for meaningful information and effective public processes at the local level to build awareness, capacity, and agency on climate change, and support planning and decision-making. This paper describes a conceptual framework to meet these requirements by generating alternative, coherent, holistic climate change scenarios and visualizations at the local scale, in collaboration with local stakeholders and scientists. The framework provides a template for a process to integrate emission scenarios with both mitigation and adaptation strategies, and to link local manifestations of impacts and responses with global climate change scenarios. The article outlines the empirical application of this framework in the Local Climate Change Visioning Project in British Columbia, Canada. The project collaboratively localized, spatialized, and visualized possible climate change effects and community responses in the community's ‘backyards’. The article concludes with lessons learned and suggested principles for future visioning efforts to engage communities in possible policy and behavioural choices.     

Tourism at Costalegre,Mexico: An ecosystem services-based exploration of current challenges and alternative futures

Tourism, as all human activities, is dependent on the natural environment and its respective ecosystem services (ES). Different user groups manage and consume these touristic ES differently, resulting in discrepancies and potential conflicts. Despite the urgency to find inclusive local approaches for sustainable development, tourism studies still analyze socio-economic and ecological impacts separately and lack integrated social–ecological approaches to improve foresight in tourism planning. Based on a growing concern regarding the future of Costalegre on the Jalisco coast of Western Mexico, we analyze through interviews, surveys, and participant observation the dependence of tourism on specific ecosystem services and conduct a scenario analysis which shows present and future implications for the social–ecological system. Furthermore, this analysis shows in detail how different scenarios change ES provision and people's livelihoods. Key findings include identifying freshwater provision and cultural ES as the most important touristic ES. At a regional scale, peasants in ejidos are the main ES stewards, whereas high-class tourism facilities constitute important local stewards. Benefits, mainly access to freshwater and the beach, are unequally distributed, provoking conflicts among different ES user groups that may escalate in the near future. Improved communication between all user groups and strengthening of key political actors seem to be the most immediate recommendations to ensure the long term sustainability of this particular region. This work may contribute to improved planning and decision-making as our ES based scenarios are a first step to integrate social–ecological knowledge into improved decision-making. At a local scale, the study reveals the most likely future development options and their social and ecological consequences. It could also serve as a baseline for informed policy making.     

Exploitation versus exploration in multinational firms: Implications for the future of international business

Given the economic weight of multinational corporations and their privileged access to resources, many different scenarios can be built about the future of international business and about the future impact of international business on economic, technological, and social development. In this paper, we argue that multinationals do not form a uniform organisational population, and we provide empirical evidence of the existence of traditional, rigid entities seeking benefits from low-risk exploitative strategies on one hand, and of flexible multinationals seeking higher performance levels by balancing the trade-offs between exploration and exploitation on the other hand. As these two sub-populations compete with one another for resources, we use a population ecology perspective to study likely ecological scenarios for the future. Our conclusion is that traditional multinationals tend to prevail over flexible multinationals, and the conditions required for a future society to allow a genuine growth of flexible multinationals are unlikely. This implies that multinationals remain primarily exploitative, and that as such, they will only be associated with marginal economic, technological, and social developments in the future. Other organisational forms, such as entrepreneurial small business and communities of practices are shown to be much more likely vehicles through which society can progress and innovate.