Combining backcasting and adaptive management for climate adaptation in coastal regions: A methodology and a South African case study

Developing adaptation strategies for deltaic and coastal regions is a major challenge, due to future uncertainties of climate change and complexity of the social–ecological systems to be managed. This paper investigates how desirable futures or normative scenarios approaches, in particular backcasting, can be used to develop more robust climate strategies in coastal regions. The paper develops a methodology in which participatory backcasting and adaptive management are combined, and its applicability is demonstrated for the Breede–Overberg coastal region in South Africa where a catchment management strategy has been developed. It is concluded that the methodology offers an adequate framework for developing and implementing long-term climate adaptation strategies and policies, including a transition management scheme for intermediate assessments.     

Future subjunctive: backcasting as social learning

Backcasting represents a form of explicitly normative scenario analysis. This paper reviews some of the key theoretical and methodological issues that are raised by a backcasting approach and discusses how these are addressed in the Georgia Basin Futures Project, a five year participatory integrated assessment project focusing on modeling, scenario analysis and community engagement. The paper argues for a “second generation” form of backcasting, where the desired future is not determined in advance of the analysis but is an emergent property of the process of engaging with users and project partners. In this sense backcasting contributes to a process of social learning about possible and desirable futures.Subjunctive: A: Adj. 1b. Designating a mood, the forms of which are employed to denote an action or a state as conceived (and not as a fact) and therefore used to express a wish, command, exhortation, or a contingent, hypothetical or prospective event. (Oxford English Dictionary, p. 3122)     

Futures studies’ backcasting method used for strategic sustainable city planning

Achieving a sustainable city requires long-term visions, integration and a system-oriented approach to addressing economic, environmental and social issues. This paper case studies a sustainable city planning project, Göteborg 2050, that uses the backcasting method. Visionary images of a long-term sustainable future can stimulate an accelerated movement towards sustainability. The paper describes a special kind of scenario methodology to build a future model for city development as a planning tool in facilitating a sustainable society. Backcasting in futures studies is widely discussed together with the comparison of three selected backcasting approaches, including Robinson's approach, The Natural Step Framework, and the Sustainable Technology Development approach. The purposes of this paper are to examine and discuss the use of the backcasting method within the Project Göteborg 2050, lessons learned and findings drawn from the experience. The case study shows that backcasting is an appropriate method in developing action plans for achieving urban sustainability. This work can be served as a model for sustainable city planning in Thailand as well as other countries.     

Change by whom? Four ways of adding actors and governance in backcasting studies

There is a lack of actors and governance in backcasting studies. Given that such studies typically are used to explore and promote change, the absence of change agents and their institutions is a shortcoming. This paper presents four approaches to include actors and governance as objects of study in backcasting studies; the stakeholder analysis approach, the social network approach, the governance model approach, and the policy and change approach. In the paper a scenario study of the greening of private transport in Bromma, Stockholm is used as example.     

Multi-scale narratives from an IA perspective: Part II. Participatory local scenario development

This paper builds on Part I, where three European and Mediterranean scenarios were introduced. Theses scenarios can be typified as qualitative, integrated narrative storylines that describe three possible directions of future change until 2030. The main purpose of the paper is to summarise the methods and results of a series of stakeholder workshops held in the Guadalentín (Spain) and the Val d'Agri (Italy) to develop local scenarios, using the Mediterranean scenarios as boundary conditions. Two workshops were organised in both watersheds, employing different methods to develop short-term and long-term future outlooks. During the first workshop an exploratory forecasting methodology was employed. By means of a collage of images, stakeholders constructed three future images linked to three Mediterranean scenarios. In the second workshop, a discussion on the short-term outlook based on current trends was followed by a backcasting exercise. The various methods yielded highly complementary results, with detailed short-term developments, rather general yet highly creative visions of the long-term future, and a set of desirable futures. It is argued that such a mix of methods has increased the quality and comprehensiveness of the results. In any case, these efforts should be but the onset of long-term stakeholder participation.     

Stepping into futures: Exploring the potential of interactive media for participatory scenarios on social-ecological systems

In this paper, we present a strategy for the development of interactive media scenarios to help communicate uncertainties and complexities in coupled human and natural systems. Insights arising from Complex Adaptive Systems theory advocate the need for more adaptive perspectives on natural resources management. For the collaborative exploration of future complexities and uncertainties, participatory scenario development has proven to be a powerful approach. A range of communication strategies with benefits for conveying complexity, however, has not yet been adopted by scenario developers. We present a framework of criteria with which we structurally analyze the benefits of interactive media communication. First, we consider requirements of feasibility, flexibility and stakeholder contributions. Then, we synthesize criteria for the communication of Complex Adaptive Systems. Finally, we set criteria for communicatory clarity and engagement. Using this framework, we review several science communication fields, including landscape visualization, serious gaming and visual analytics. We then develop a strategy for interactive media communication in participatory scenario development, including two work-in-progress examples. This strategy employs mixed media, micro-games and accessible stakeholder contributions in a geo-web context, and is suitable for participatory work in live settings as well as on-line, from a local to a global scale.     

On the effects of uncertainty measures on sustainability indices: An empirical investigation in a nonlinear framework

This study investigates the effects of uncertainty measures on the dynamics of sustainability indices across different regions of the globe in the post-crisis period. The analysis is conducted under a multivariate Nonlinear Autoregressive-Distributed Lag (NARDL) framework. The results suggest that besides contributing to the Sustainable Development Goals, sustainability indices may serve as valuable tools to investors, asset managers and other stakeholders to dampen and/or offset the negative impacts of local and global measures of uncertainty, depending on the analyzed region. Other implications and an agenda for future research are also discussed.     

Enhancing the role of participatory scenario planning processes: Lessons from Reality Check exercises

This paper critically assesses a series of scenario planning exercises in the Washington Metropolitan region and the State of Maryland within a broad and evolving framework of participatory planning. Reality Check, as the exercises were called, were a daylong set of activities using tools that encouraged stakeholder participation to develop scenarios focused on long-term regional sustainability. The paper draws upon planning theory, participant reactions, media reports, post-exercise outcomes and author's experiences of shaping the process. It illustrates how the model was adapted to multiple scales and contexts, and variations in desired technical complexity. The paper concludes that such processes have an inherent value in capturing the issues of the future and in creating awareness and knowledge. It argues that certain considerations such as early strategic engagement of stakeholders, flexibility of technical tools and diversity among organizers, all played a role in enhancing the dialogue. Furthermore, it suggests that when timed with favorable external conditions and designed within suitable institutional frameworks, they have the potential to provide a foundation from which tangible regional benefits can be realized.     

Foresight tackling societal challenges: Impacts and implications on policy-making

Foresight activities are often conducted to anticipate major societal future challenges and provide support to current decision-making. Whereas the paper reports some findings on the future of challenges especially related to sustainability, security and information society, it mainly provides evidence on how foresight impacts on policy-making and societal developments. The paper elaborates a framework with key design dimensions related to foresight process and outcomes in order to characterise different kinds of foresight projects. The framework is applied for the empirically based ex post analysis of selected foresight projects around the world in order to clarify (i) different roles for foresight in the innovation system and society and (ii) its respective impacts and implications on policy.     

Evaluating the use of an integrated forest land-use planning approach in addressing forest ecosystem services conflicting demands: Experience within an Irish forest landscape

There is an increasing demand for genuine public participation in Sustainable Forest Management (SFM) planning to address the various demands for forests to deliver a range of ecosystem services. However, as of yet, there are few developed and tested mechanisms to help authorities and stakeholders with diverse interests to effectively work together to reach a common goal. Integrated Forest Land-Use Planning (IFLUP) is an approach that has the potential to accommodate multi-stakeholders’ demands in the field of SFM planning. In this paper an IFLUP framework process that facilitates stakeholder participation in future-oriented SFM planning is explored. This framework combines scenario analysis and stakeholder collaborative learning. Its application in a case study area in the West of Ireland is outlined and its effectiveness in accommodating conflicting stakeholder demands on forest ecosystem services as well as its potential opportunities and challenges are evaluated.Based on the results and participants evaluation feedback of the IFLUP workshop outcomes, there was a shared view that the IFLUP approach has potential to address conflicting societal demands on forest ecosystem services within local forest landscapes. Likewise, collaborative learning process helps build trust and respect among stakeholder groups as well as improving the legitimacy and acceptance of SFM planning outcomes.     

Stakeholder participation in environmental knowledge production

Participatory approaches in environmental knowledge production are commonly propagated for their potential to enhance legitimacy and quality of decision-making processes, especially under conditions of uncertainty. This paper describes the development of the Stakeholder Participation Guidance for the Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency as an attempt to put the rather theoretical ambitions of the participation literature into practice. The study includes an analysis of theories of ‘new production of knowledge’ and of the agency's position as an intermediary organization between science and policy, together with its participatory activities, to date. The Guidance is meant to suit different contexts, products and modes of assessments by the agency. Therefore, it cannot be a like a recipe book, but is intended to support and guide project leaders in their choices around stakeholder participation. The paper emphasizes the context dependency of participatory knowledge production and stresses the importance of reflection and transparency regarding the role of scientific advisors in the science-policy process.     

Pricing Contingent Claims under Interest Rate and Asset Price Risk

This paper presents a general framework for pricing contingent claims under interest rate and asset price uncertainty. The framework extends Ho and Lee's (1986) valuation framework by allowing not only future interest rates but also future asset prices to depend on the current term structure of interest rates. The approach is shown to provide risk-neutral valuation relationships that are consistent with the initial term structure of interest rates and can be applied to valuation of a broad class of assets including stock options, convertible bonds, and junk bonds.     

A dialogical framing of AIS–SEA design

Previous literature has proposed dialogical accounting as a means wherein accounting information systems can support competing, and potentially incompatible, information needs of various interested constituencies (Dillard and Yuthas, 2013). Here we extend that work by focusing on the design of social and environmental accounting (SEA) information systems that take pluralism seriously. We theorize the challenges of designing such systems wherein they are expected to address the needs of multiple users with different interests that may emerge from different economic, social, political and/or cultural perspectives, as they relate, for example, to sustainability reporting, ethical investment, participatory development studies and indigenous resource management. Using dialogic engagement, we attempt to move beyond traditional, and often highly constrained, conceptualizations of “stakeholder engagement” and propose a framework for undertaking systems design that can facilitate high quality and relevant SEA information systems that meet the needs of a wide range of actual and/or potential users. We provide an example of how the framework might be enacted using a framing methodology.     

Metropolitan vision making – using backcasting as a strategic learning process to shape metropolitan futures

The need for new forward-looking tools in urban planning is immense: new functional relations and structures are now stretching beyond our capacity to ‘rationally’ capture modern metropolitan spaces (Neumann & Hull, 2009). At the same time, cities struggle to find tools to help manage their long-term transition towards a low-carbon, resource-smart economy.In 2006–2007, the municipalities in the Helsinki metropolitan region organised an international competition for ideas titled “Greater Helsinki Vision 2050.” It drew a good number of entries in the competition stage and later helped bring together the awarded participants with local planning professionals and citizens.This paper explores the process behind the vision-making exercise and evaluates its success in providing new tools for the long-term transition to a low-carbon, resource-smart Helsinki metropolitan region. The theoretical framework used in this paper is ‘incrementalism with perspective’ (Ganser, Siebel & Sieverts, 1993) and its ideas on using long-term visions in the integration and coordination of incremental activities in various institutions. We perceive the backcasting scenario method (Dreborg, 1996) as a tool for implementing this approach and hence interpret the case example’s results through the framework of this method.The Greater Helsinki Vision 2050 competition was an example of a vision-oriented planning process that provided new tools for bringing the ‘unmanageable’ metropolitan region within the scope of the manageable. The backcasting approach was deployed as a tool for emancipating stakeholders to imagine alternative futures for metropolitan spaces.The backcasting scenario method should be considered a viable tool when managing vision-oriented planning processes: longer than usual time horizons help initiate strategic learning among stakeholders. However, in addition to civil servants, citizens and other stakeholders should be widely engaged in order to secure sustainable results.     

论利益相关者利益最大化财务目标--基于利益相关者理论及系统科学的视角

利益相关者利益最大化的财务目标观点,理论基础来源于利益相关者理论。它摒弃了传统财务目标研究中单目标函数的思维方式,转而从多目标函数的角度来考虑,并注重以实务为导向,因而与具有明显经济学特征的传统财务目标观点在研究方法及思维方式上有着很大差异。本文从概念的界定入手,指出当前对于利益相关者利益最大化财务目标认识上的一些偏差,并运用耗散结构论与协同学作为分析的框架与工具,通过对经理可协调与不可协调冲突的分析,得出应采用利益相关者利益最大化作为公司财务目标的结论。     

“Every today was a tomorrow”: An integral method for indexing the social mediation of preferred futures

The visions we hold of the future, whether they are of utopias or dystopias, are not simply a matter of personal imagination. Our conceptions of the future are mediated to us as much as they are privately created by us. To this point, futures studies have not developed an integrative and broad-based framework for considering the social mediation of futures. Understanding how social mediation impacts on our futures visioning requires an interpretive framework that can cope with the multilayered nature of futures visions, the worldviews that are associated with them and a theory of mediation that can be applied within such a context of ‘depth’. Using theory-building methodology, the current paper attempts this task by describing a theory of social mediation that builds on the integral futures framework. An application of the framework explores the relationship between various scenarios of health care futures, their associated worldviews and the mediational factors that influence our visions of future health care systems.     

The missing link: Bringing institutions and politics into energy future studies

Energy future studies can be a useful tool for learning about how to induce and manage technical, economic and policy change related to energy supply and use. The private sector has successfully deployed them for strategic planning, examining key parameters such as markets, competition and consumer trends. However in public policy, most energy future studies remain disconnected from policy making. One reason is that they often ignore the key political and institutional factors that underpin much of the anticipated, wished-for or otherwise explored energy systems developments. Still, we know that institutions and politics are critical enablers or constraints to technical and policy change. This paper examines how analytical insights into political and institutional dynamics can enhance energy future studies. It develops an approach that combines systems-technical change scenarios with political and institutional analysis. Using the example of a backcasting study dealing with the long term low-carbon transformation of a national energy system, it applies two levels of institutional and political analysis; at the level of international regimes and at the level of sectoral policy, and examines how future systems changes and policy paths are conditioned by institutional change processes. It finds that the systematic application of these variables significantly enhances and renders more useful backcasting studies of energy futures.     

Eco-efficiency and firm value

Eco-efficiency refers to a process that seeks to maximize the effectiveness of business processes while minimizing their impacts on the environment. Fundamental to eco-efficiency is adoption of a management philosophy that stimulates the search for environmental improvements that yield parallel economic benefits [President’s Council on Sustainable Development, 1996a. Sustainable America: A New Consensus for Prosperity, Opportunity, and a Healthy Environment. Government Printing Office, Washington DC; President’s Council on Sustainable Development, 1996b. Eco-efficiency: Task Force Report. Government Printing Office, Washington DC; World Business Council for Sustainable Development (WBCSD), 2000. Eco-efficiency: Creating More Value with Less Input. Geneva]. Eco-efficiency is increased by activities that create economic value while continuously reducing ecological impacts and the use of natural resources [DeSimone, L., Popoff, F., 1997. Eco-efficiency: The Business Link To Sustainable Development. MIT Press, Cambridge, MA]. This study empirically examines the proposition that implementation of eco-efficient business strategies is associated with higher firm value. We posit that, firms which adopt eco-efficient business strategies and, as a consequence, achieve reduced costs and increased profits should be more highly valued by the market than similar firms that do not adopt eco-efficient business strategies. Our empirical testing supports this proposition.     

A conceptual framework for valuing IT within a business system

Evaluation of IT value is challenging due to the complex nature of IT impacts and multifaceted interpretations of value. We introduce a conceptual framework for tackling the complexity of IT value evaluation within the scope of a single company. Our study applies design science research with analysis of experiences from five cases. The conceptual framework covers perspectives: 1) analysis levels for varying stakeholder views on value, 2) valuing logics for different interpretations of value, and 3) evaluation views for understanding systemic value. Together these perspectives create a basis for evaluating and communicating multifaceted IT value, and help to understand what kind of specific value information can serve the needs of IT- related decision making.