Multi-scale narratives from an IA perspective: Part I. European and Mediterranean scenario development

Desertification in the Northern Mediterranean region can be effectively managed only through an understanding of the principal ecological, socio-cultural and economic drivers. Scenarios can play an important role in the understanding of such a complex system. Following the fundamentals of Integrated Assessment, narrative storylines were developed that are qualitative, participatory, and highly integrated. Multi-scale long-term (2030) storylines were developed for Europe, the Northern Mediterranean, and for four local cases. This paper discusses the methodology and results of the process of developing European and Mediterranean scenarios. In Part II, the local scenario development by means of scenario workshops is elaborated upon. European and Mediterranean scenarios were based on a set of three existing European scenarios, that were adapted to fit the specific issues in the Mediterranean region, using the so-called Factor-Actor-Sector (FAS) framework. Resulting scenarios were Convulsive Change (disruptive climate change); Big is Beautiful (oversized EU and powerful multinationals); and Knowledge is King (technological development and mass migration). It proved possible to use and enrich a set of existing European scenarios and to translate them to fit the Mediterranean region. A possible use of this type of narrative storylines is further illustrated in Part II.     

Merging art and design in foresight: Making sense of Emerge

Emerge: Artists and Scientists Redesign the Future, hosted by Arizona State University in 2012, united artists, engineers, bioscientists, social scientists, storytellers and designers to build, draw, write and play with the future. Over three days, and in nine different workshops, participants created games, products, monuments, images and stories in an effort to reveal the texture and feel of emergent futures. The Emerge workshops drew from a burgeoning field of future-oriented methods that infuse art, design and information technology into the development and delivery of scenarios and design fictions – a constellation of practices I call “mediated scenarios”. This introduction and the articles in this special issue, work to make sense of these emerging practices, and of Emerge itself, in order to develop appreciation of this rising genre. In doing so, the papers in this issue ask critical questions about the nature of these novel forms of foresight practice and investigate the trade-offs and potencies involved in the workings of mediated scenarios.     

Scenarios based on sustainability discourses: Constructing alternative consumption and consumer perspectives

This paper describes a research based scenario project on sustainable consumption in Belgium. In the Consentsus project a scenario method was developed and tested by the research team to assess scenarios both as learning and participation tools for sustainable consumption. By using a decomposition analysis a solid ground was laid to adequately summarize three guiding principles on how to reach a (more) sustainable consumption: eco-efficiency, de-commodification and sufficiency. These ‘pure’ strategies – showing significant similarities with concrete discourses – were then translated into a participative process: two expert-driven workshops and interim research yielded three future images of food consumption as well as indications on their boundary conditions. These three images reflect significantly diverging approaches on how to organize practices related to food consumption. This structural diversity allowed us to address an archetypical consumer, i.e. a generalized consumer based on the specificities of the scenarios. These consumer perspectives do not aim at indicating real (even potential) groups, but aim at illustrating how the environment of interactions around the consumer fundamentally changes throughout the three sustainability discourses. It is argued that thinking through alternative modes of consumption is of importance to support and elucidate debate in governance arenas that address transitions towards a more sustainable consumption.     

Enhancing the role of participatory scenario planning processes: Lessons from Reality Check exercises

This paper critically assesses a series of scenario planning exercises in the Washington Metropolitan region and the State of Maryland within a broad and evolving framework of participatory planning. Reality Check, as the exercises were called, were a daylong set of activities using tools that encouraged stakeholder participation to develop scenarios focused on long-term regional sustainability. The paper draws upon planning theory, participant reactions, media reports, post-exercise outcomes and author's experiences of shaping the process. It illustrates how the model was adapted to multiple scales and contexts, and variations in desired technical complexity. The paper concludes that such processes have an inherent value in capturing the issues of the future and in creating awareness and knowledge. It argues that certain considerations such as early strategic engagement of stakeholders, flexibility of technical tools and diversity among organizers, all played a role in enhancing the dialogue. Furthermore, it suggests that when timed with favorable external conditions and designed within suitable institutional frameworks, they have the potential to provide a foundation from which tangible regional benefits can be realized.     

Towards sustainable households: a methodology for developing sustainable technological and social innovations

A high factor environmental efficiency improvement, towards a Factor 20 by 2050 AD — needed due to the assumed doubling of the world population combined with a fivefold increase of wealth per capita and a halving of the total global environmental burden — cannot be achieved through good housekeeping and technological innovation alone; any technological solutions will have to be combined with social innovations, in lifestyles and cultures. This paper describes the conclusions of the SusHouse (Strategies towards the Sustainable Household) Project that has been exploring possible socially and technologically innovative strategies for sustainable households. The Project has covered three household ‘functions’: Clothing Care, Shelter (Heating, Cooling and Lighting) and Food (Shopping, Cooking and Eating). These have been studied in five European countries (Germany, Hungary, Italy, The Netherlands and the UK). The methodology of the Project has involved stakeholder workshops, the construction of Design-Orienting Scenarios, environmental, economic and consumer assessment of the Scenarios and strategy formulation. The paper describes: (1) the methodology for devising design-orienting scenarios, with examples from the three functions; (2) the results of environmental, economic and consumer acceptability assessments of these scenarios; and (3) comments on how the methodology can be developed and applied.     

Anticipatory action learning: Theory and practice

Anticipatory action learning (AAL) draws from action learning/research traditions and Futures Studies to develop a unique style of questioning the future with intent to transform organization and society. Case studies from futures workshops are used to illustrate the main points of anticipatory action learning. These are: (1) sensitivity to the environment—workshop dynamics and ways of learning/knowing of participants, (2) questioning leads to anxiety in the organization, (3) anticipatory action learning can be easily appropriated, (4) resistance must be named, understood and transformed, and (5) the future is deepened by authentic understanding of the other.     

Causal mapping and scenario building with multiple organisations

Thinking and planning for the future is critical in a competitive business world. Scenarios are a common technique for investigating the future, but can be time consuming and challenging to develop, particularly when more than a single organisation is involved. An approach is presented here which shifts the focus of scenario building from the company level to the sector level, whereby a range of organisations engage collectively on a topic of mutual importance. A rapid technique was developed, with simple scenarios being constructed in 2-4 h. This process was implemented in 13 multi-organisational workshops with participants from the construction and building industries, sectors which are traditionally short-term and reactive in their outlook. The resulting feedback, observations and experiences are discussed, together with examples of how the resultant scenarios have been applied. An example of causal map reflection (exposing an individual's causal map to others) is also presented, described and critiqued. It was found that the process was successful in engaging participants in thinking about and discussing the future, appreciating the interconnectivities of the related issues, and understanding the collective implications of their potential decisions, as well as facilitating the socialisation of participant thinking and the construction of collective futures.     

Planning of strategic innovation aimed at environmental sustainability: actor-networks, scenario acceptance and backcasting analysis within a polymeric coating chain

This paper addresses a new way of influencing and stimulating technological innovations towards sustainability. Sustainability is operationalised as function fulfilment with a factor of 20 reduction on environmental burden over the entire lifecycle. The method, which is derived from the earlier developed sustainable technological development (STD) and SusHouse methods, includes future visioning together with stakeholder participation, followed by action planning. Future visioning has been carried out in workshops with all relevant stakeholders; action planning is also performed in workshops. As a case study a polymeric coatings chain in the Netherlands and in Portugal, has been chosen. Initially data has been gathered about production, environmental aspects, and technological innovations and applications; later interviews with stakeholders have been carried out followed by the visioning and action planning workshops. The paper shows that the methodology works in a situation in which innovative activity is already under way, identifying new and unexpected ways of making the polymeric coatings chain more sustainable. It discusses further implementation of new ideas of function fulfilment.     

Designing the future—A reflection of a transdisciplinary case study in Austria

The paper presents a transdisciplinary case study which aimed to encourage a vital regional process for building more sustainable structures and regional networks in the future. The case study looks at the industrial city of Steyr which is located in a highly dynamic region in Upper Austria and has to compete with other regional industrial centres and on the global market with internationally acting companies in the automotive sector. For finding local strategies to cope with globally induced pressures and changes several foresight techniques and transdisciplinary approaches have been applied such as interviews, photo elicitation, workshops and scenario building. The transdisciplinary case study is reflected by exploring three major research questions: first, how does transdisciplinarity work in practice, second, what are the benefits and limitations of transdisciplinary research in regional foresight processes and third, how can transdisciplinary research contribute to initiating a long-term process for building sustainable networks and structures in the region. Some answers can be given from the empirical example of Steyr. The case study shows that particularly in regions with a long industrial history and tradition and where existing paradigms cannot easily be overcome, a transdisciplinary procedure provides clear advantages over sole expert solutions. Transdisciplinarity can be the key to get through to the local actors, to develop perfectly fitting strategies for the region and to initiate joint learning and in an ideal situation a long-term change process. New ideas, structures and networks are established which are essential for improving the long-term development of a region.     

Stepping into futures: Exploring the potential of interactive media for participatory scenarios on social-ecological systems

In this paper, we present a strategy for the development of interactive media scenarios to help communicate uncertainties and complexities in coupled human and natural systems. Insights arising from Complex Adaptive Systems theory advocate the need for more adaptive perspectives on natural resources management. For the collaborative exploration of future complexities and uncertainties, participatory scenario development has proven to be a powerful approach. A range of communication strategies with benefits for conveying complexity, however, has not yet been adopted by scenario developers. We present a framework of criteria with which we structurally analyze the benefits of interactive media communication. First, we consider requirements of feasibility, flexibility and stakeholder contributions. Then, we synthesize criteria for the communication of Complex Adaptive Systems. Finally, we set criteria for communicatory clarity and engagement. Using this framework, we review several science communication fields, including landscape visualization, serious gaming and visual analytics. We then develop a strategy for interactive media communication in participatory scenario development, including two work-in-progress examples. This strategy employs mixed media, micro-games and accessible stakeholder contributions in a geo-web context, and is suitable for participatory work in live settings as well as on-line, from a local to a global scale.     

Structure in creativity: An exploratory study to analyse the effects of structuring tools on scenario workshop results

Scenario projects increasingly combine quantitative models with qualitative, participatory products in order to make scenarios more coherent, relevant, credible and creative. A major advantage of adding participatory, qualitative scenarios is their ability to produce creative, innovative, non-linear products. Integrating participatory results with quantitative models, however, can lower their credibility of both products when they are not consistent. The low level of structure in most participatory output limits possibilities for linking them to quantitative models. More structure could be introduced, but this might hamper the creativity of the workshop results: outcomes (process) and outputs (storylines). This paper tests a new method to analyse the creativity of scenario storylines in order to analyse the effects of structuring tools on the creativity of workshop results. Both the perceptions of participants and the resulting storylines of nine case studies across Europe are used in the analysis. Results show that the use of structuring tools can have a negative effect on the creativity of the workshop, but the influence seems to vary between the different tools. The study shows the benefit of using indicators for the scenario quality criteria. More research is needed to develop indicators for other scenario quality criteria, to improve those developed here and to study the impact of structuring tools with a larger data set.     

Towards community engagement: six steps to expert learning for future scenario development

This paper describes a variety of facilitated exercises for use in collaborative workshops where experts are brought together to create archetypes that feed into the design of alternative scenarios for the future of their area of expertise (e.g., forestry, housing, transportation, food systems and waste). In this case, these workshops were designed to aid in the development of a computer-based sustainability tool (GB-Quest) that supports a larger process of community engagement and dialogue focused on sustainability in the southwestern portion of British Columbia, Canada. Value-focused thinking and a narrative-based structure provided the framework for this dialogue and a template for asking hard questions about the assumptions and biases related to the alternatives. Using examples, this paper outlines and details this process and then suggests possible next steps in this ongoing process.     

Developing an abduction-based method for futures research

Futures research is an established field of knowledge with a wealth of methods and techniques. However, foresight, future outlooks and scenarios are, as a rule, based on inductivist or deductivist methods, making looking into the future a form of conservative projecting of past and present probabilities onto the road of development lying ahead of us. Closed past or present outlooks give birth to open futures, but these futures usually are little more than exercises in organizational learning. In this paper we present and develop a method for futures research that is based on abductive logic. Abduction-based futures research approach proceeds from closed, imaginary future states to alternative, open theoretical frameworks or explanations. Unlike inductivists and deductivists believe, this procedure from the unknown to the known is rational, and therefore something that can be systematized and learned. There is a logic of discovery, and what could be a better place to apply and develop it than futures research.     

Beyond economic and value wars: Mythic images of future cities

Images of the future are essential to a society's survival. According to Polak [1], images of the future reflect and foreshadow society's future; as images go, so goes society. As a visual medium, cities in particular depend on robust images of the future. I submit that our ability to develop useful images of future cities depends on our visual literacy in understanding architectural images. This study explores alternative futures illustrated with future fantasies as an experiment in connecting images, archetypal myths, and alternative futures. Using two variables (strength of the economy and shifts in social values), four scenarios are proposed: Frontier Freedoms, Urban Fortress, Eco-Survival, and Utopian Hopes. Scenarios of future cities depicted by architectural imagery and linked to worldviews and archetypal myths broaden public discourse beyond economics and technology to address qualitative contextual factors such as identity, community, sacredness, and nature.     

Puzzling stakeholder views for long-term planning in the bio-economy: A back-casting application

Planning long-term actions in the South of Italy is often characterised by a ‘vicious circle of non-participation’. Stakeholders are increasingly not aware of the relevant role they have in supporting policy-making processes, even if they are usually keen to express their opinions. The aim of the study is to suggest policy-makers and practitioners a way to change their approach to long-term strategies definition in areas with traditionally scarce experience in stakeholder participation and where ‘good governance’ often lacks. On the whole, empirical results are very positive. The study allowed us to combine both puzzling and powering required by long-term strategies with a positive effect on the democratisation of the policymaking. In particular, both the e-mail survey and the workshop were important moments to sharing knowledge with experts, to putting together the different visions from stakeholders and to drawing possible policy actions (puzzling). Moreover, the backcasting timeline that clearly indicates the sequence of events and the involved stakeholders, and the strategy's validation questionnaires can be intended as a step towards a guide as to how power can be organised for each stage of the process (powering).     

Market Dependence and Economic Events

Recent studies on stock market pricing have rejected the random walk model for short-term periods and have concentrated on long-term persistent or mean-reverting dependence. The problem with these studies is that their statistical results can be biased by the shorter term dependence. Rather than trying to develop a unified theory that explains both short- and long-term dependence, current studies use different methodologies to correct for the short-term dependence while trying to test for long-term dependence. This paper uses a sequential information theory to focus attention on short-term dependence effects. This theory states that the market process is a nonstationary mean process surrounded by a nonstationary autocovariance error process. A nonstationary mean process implies short-term dependence resulting from changing economic events (new information). Long-term persistent dependence then derives from nonperiodic economic cycles. A new empirical approach, a cross-sectional autocorrelation coefficient is used since it is free from the stationarity problems of previous techniques.     

Bounding the future: The use of scenarios in assessing climate change impacts

This paper investigates the contribution of socio-economic scenarios to improve decisions and policies in climate assessments. We specifically looked at adaptation projects in the Dutch Climate changes Spatial Planning programme. Based on the four decision failure criteria neglect of internal information, bounded rationality, insufficient expansion of existing mental models and stickiness and lack of friction of information and knowledge, it was concluded that in these projects, socio-economic scenarios appear to generate useful data, but that their full potential to reduce decision failure is not likely to be exploited. Therefore adaptation options suggested by these studies may not be ‘future-proof’: they may be appropriate in some future societies, but fail in others. We believe similar results would be obtained in other contexts. Possible decision failures are caused by neglecting socio-economic developments, limiting the number of storylines generated by scenario studies to one or two, lack of stakeholder involvement in the scenario development and ignoring discontinuities.     

Forecasting demand for secondary materials: A case study of waste paper

The authors examine how best to forecast the demand for a resource, in this case waste paper, using three methods. The first is based on long or short-term GDP forecasts, the second is a basic or modified Holt-Winters model, and the third is an input-output model, which can incorporate various scenarios to allow for the effects of technical change. All three techniques are superior to time-series projection. As data availability increases, the application of a combination of these methods would improve the policy response to resource shortage.     

Evaluating the use of an integrated forest land-use planning approach in addressing forest ecosystem services conflicting demands: Experience within an Irish forest landscape

There is an increasing demand for genuine public participation in Sustainable Forest Management (SFM) planning to address the various demands for forests to deliver a range of ecosystem services. However, as of yet, there are few developed and tested mechanisms to help authorities and stakeholders with diverse interests to effectively work together to reach a common goal. Integrated Forest Land-Use Planning (IFLUP) is an approach that has the potential to accommodate multi-stakeholders’ demands in the field of SFM planning. In this paper an IFLUP framework process that facilitates stakeholder participation in future-oriented SFM planning is explored. This framework combines scenario analysis and stakeholder collaborative learning. Its application in a case study area in the West of Ireland is outlined and its effectiveness in accommodating conflicting stakeholder demands on forest ecosystem services as well as its potential opportunities and challenges are evaluated.Based on the results and participants evaluation feedback of the IFLUP workshop outcomes, there was a shared view that the IFLUP approach has potential to address conflicting societal demands on forest ecosystem services within local forest landscapes. Likewise, collaborative learning process helps build trust and respect among stakeholder groups as well as improving the legitimacy and acceptance of SFM planning outcomes.     

Should short-term speculators be taxed,or subsidised?

Summary This paper explores the welfare implications of a securities transaction tax when long-term information contained in stock prices can improve resource allocation but speculators have short horizon objectives. Speculators can trade on information of differing time horizons and profit maximizing firms can use long-term information contained in stock prices to improve their investment decisions. The model takes full account of the effect of a tax on market liquidity and welfare for all market participants. Surprisingly, a subsidy on short-term speculation can increase the amount of equilibrium trade on long-horizon information. This is because short-term informed trade exerts a positive externality over long-term informed trade when speculators have a short planning horizon. The cost of paying the subsidy may be smaller than the gain in firm value, while no trader is made worse off.This paper is a revised version of chapter 4 of my Ph.D. dissertation written at the European University Institute. I wish to thank Paolo Battigalli, James Dow, Thierry Foucault, Rainer Kiefer, Matt Spiegel, Erik Theissen, the co-editor and two anonymous referees for helpful comments. I would also like to thank audiences at the workshop of the ESSFM Gerzensee and EFA Annual Meetings 2000.