The future quantified

The results reported in this paper demonstrate that the qualitative (group) research and quantitative (individual) survey techniques that have been developed now offer a viable means for mapping current expectations and the possible future directions these will take. Sensible use of these should provide governments, and large organisations in general, with a powerful new set of tools for positively managing the future. In terms of the issues themselves, the group which emerged most strongly from the quantified responses of the individuals are those which might be seen as relating to the ‘green' environment. On the other hand, our qualitative groups looked upon these key issues as representing matters of survival for humanity as a whole. Such a focus on survival may seem selfish, but it can also be seen as altruistic not concerned with personal survival. It also represents a sound, rational approach to long-term planning, where the respondents focused instead on how governments might positively, and safely, manage all the long-term issues threatening the future of humankind. If we move away from ‘green' issues, it is also clear that even individuals recognize the globalisation of issues in particular the globalisation of business, the possibility of a global financial crash and the (threat of) domination by Pacific Rim countries. At the opposite end of the spectrum are worries about the significant problems faced by the underclasses—and, in turn, the significant threat these present to society as a whole. In general though, apart from technological issues, the emphasis was—across almost all areas—on survival in the face of events ranging down from catastrophes to mere crises and stresses!     

The future of morality

Moral criticism of human institutions is frequent : the acceptance of social constraints by the free individual is rare. This moral inversion is inconsistent with the survival of an increasingly interdependent society. Statements of human rights must be replaced by statements of human responsibility if we are to make the world viable.     

The future as information

Based on the notion that a society can be simplified to the sum of information communicable among its members, the development of information is then one of the most decisive, formative factors for the future. This essay examines the implications of information and information technologies for American social dynamics of the future. The political potentialities of new means of communication and of information manipulation are discussed in particular.     

贸易信用的未来

18个月前,使用贸易信用保险的公司还很少,他们中的大多数甚至还不了解贸易信用保险的真正价值所在。贸易信用保险是帮助贸易商规避坏账风险的工具。你不能指望一个评级机构会为其评级的差错提供赔偿。     

Unix终端还能走多远?

今天,当桌面计算已经进入了一个图形化的视窗时代后,曾经最早进入信息化的Unix终端行业用户,依然在使用着纯粹的Unix终端。当行业应用对终端产品提出更多新的需求,传统的Unix终端显然已经不能适应应用需求的快速延伸与扩展,我们不禁质疑:传统Unix终端还能走多远?2003年5月,国内图形终端的领导者升腾资讯公司,以“终结Unix终端时代”的鲜明旗帜,发布数十款升腾终端产品,以完善、成熟的“一台清”行业桌面应用方案,打响了一场全面替换传统Unix终端的产业升级革命。行业应用深刻变化提出“一台清”终端需求回顾终端发展历史,具有相对简单的…     

伊斯兰金融的未来

回顾伊斯兰金融的发展历程,从1963年成立首家伊斯兰银行,到2007年伊斯兰金融资产达到3000亿美元,伊斯兰金融发展迅速。文章通过实例剖析了伊斯兰债券与资产支持证券的异同,并从伊斯兰债券的金融本质入手,从宏观的角度展开对伊斯兰金融的未来前景的探讨,指出伊斯兰金融是传统伊斯兰融资体系适应全球化经济下的一种新模式探索,并期待着伊斯兰现代主义能够更好地促进伊斯兰金融的发展和成熟,使伊斯兰社会更好地融合到全球化的经济发展中。     

The future of social security

We analyze the effect of the projected demographic transition on the political support for social security, and equilibrium outcomes. Embedding a probabilistic-voting setup of electoral competition in the standard OLG model with capital accumulation, we find that intergenerational transfers arise in the absence of altruism, commitment, or trigger strategies. Closed-form solutions predict population ageing to lead to higher social security tax rates, a rising share of pensions in GDP, but eventually lower social security benefits per retiree. The response of equilibrium tax rates to demographic shocks reduces old-age consumption risk. Calibrated to match features of the U.S. economy, the model suggests that, in response to the projected demographic transition, social security tax rates will gradually increase to 16%. Other policies that distort labor supply will become less important; labor supply therefore will rise, in contrast with frequently voiced fears.     

The future financing of Medicare

Regardless of the timing and the type of federal action to reform the nation's health care system, the Medicare program's financial problems must be addressed soon. Serious concerns exist about both the Hospital Insurance and the Supplementary Medical Insurance portions of the program.     

The future for technological collaboration

Technological collaboration between firms is argued to be increasing and to be an important element of corporate and technological development. Such collaboration is actively promoted by governments. It is a central element of the ‘techno-globalism’ analysis of future international economic and technology development. There are many reasons for the promotion of collaboration, but its outcomes are mixed. Collaboration may reflect industrial and technological weakness; it has a limited technology focus, rarely appropriate to world problems; its international range is restricted to the global triad; and public policies and corporate strategies may be incongruent. By highlighting the many uncertainties surrounding collaboration, this article questions the techno-globalism analysis, and raises some issues concerning the future of collaboration between firms. It argues that whatever its future, the importance of indigenous capabilities remains critical for nations and for their firms.     

The future of the elderly

Between now and the 1990s the population of most Western European countries will, on present fertility and mortality rates, show little increase. However, the proportion aged 65 or more will increase; this will be almost entirely due to the 20–25% increase in the numbers aged 75 or more. At the same time there will be pressure to lower the retirement age so as to avoid unemployment among the young. Schemes to encourage early retirement have had little success; without considerable economic growth the conflict between the interests of the elderly and the young will inevitably become more acute.     

创投概念：来自未来 走向未来

随着创业板的推出．创投行业的春天即将到来,这个来自未来的行业,定能从容地走向更远的未来。     

The future of native languages

This paper examines some of the difficulties facing forecasting about the fate of endangered languages. It is argued that previous efforts to predict the number of languages that will become extinct in the next century are flawed in that they do not make fine enough distinctions between language situations and they assume that socio-economic patterns that characterized the colonial period and the rise of the nation state will continue indefinitely. Several breaks from the past, which may affect language death, are examined, including language revitalization programs, information technology, globalization, and environmental degradation.     

The future of science studies

Science studies suffers from a sense of secondariness. It can abandon this inferiority if it relocates itself in terms of a politics of knowledge. Science studies should stop viewing itself as a quilt patch of subjects and reading itself as a creative mediation between knowledge and power. This is illustrated in terms of the emergence of Science Studies in India. Official India emphasized science policy as an extension of the Nation-State. Science studies arose as a response to science policy questioning the social contract between Science and State in India. Science studies emerged as a part of civil society after the Emergency of 1975 and among social movements rather than as a professionalized academic subject. In attempting to create an identity, science studies moved across four axis of possibility: the science of science, interdisciplinary science, transscience and alternative science. The second part of the paper links science studies to the democratic imagination. It argues that the citizen must be seen as a scientist, a person of knowledge not merely as a consumer and voter. The citizen thus becomes a trustee of local, defeated and marginal forms of knowledge. Its real role is in enhancing the democratic imagination, providing methodologies of conflict resolution and plural frameworks of knowledge for cognitive justice, thus emerging as a site for dissenting imaginations against the emerging global regime.     

Low-mobility: The future of transport

Nearly all researchers into the future of global passenger transport assume that both car-ownership and overall vehicular travel will continue to rise. But they also increasingly acknowledge the environmental and resource problems facing vehicular transport, particularly global climate change and oil depletion. In order to meet these challenges, researchers propose a variety of technological solutions, including greatly improved vehicular fuel efficiency, alternative fuels and propulsion systems, and carbon capture and storage. In this paper we question whether these optimistic solutions can be developed and widely deployed in the limited time frame available, and argue instead that not only are ever-rising vehicular mobility levels unlikely to occur, but that the human costs of continuing this approach are also too great. Instead we argue that because transport is a derived demand, we must first articulate a preferred vision of the future, then design an appropriate, sustainable transport system. Finally, we briefly outline what such a low-mobility future transport system would look like, using our own city, Melbourne, Australia, as a case study.     

The future of European development aid

Development assistance represents one mechanism for the redistribution of global wealth. This article examines key external challenges that the development aid systems in the EU currently confront. Among the most important elements of the changing backdrop against which decisions on preparing EU development cooperation for the future will be made are the increasing differentiation of countries within the developing world and the rise of new global development actors, and the growing prominence of issue linkages between security and development and the environment and development. These challenges raise important questions for the EU concerning the future rationale and organization of development assistance.