Supply Dynamics in the U.S. Hog Industry

A variety of methods and empirical techniques are now available for estimating dynamic economic relationships. Unfortunately, most dynamic modeling procedures rely heavily on the sample data for specification. This is due to a lack of a priori information useful for determining the appropriate lag structure. However, there is frequently a rich source of information that can be used to define lag structures in agricultural supply models. This information is related to the biological and physiological processes characterizing agricultural production. In this paper, a quarterly econometric model of supply response in the U.S. hog industry is specified and estimated. This model incorporates relevant biological features of hog production directly into the specification. The structural integrity of the model is evaluated by examining post-sample predictive ability and mean-path elasticities. The results indicate performance that is consistent with observed behavior in the U.S. hog industry. Nous disposons aujourd'hui de toute une gamme de méthodes et de techniques empiriques pour ?estimation des rapports économiques dynamiques. Malheureusement, la plupart des méthodes de modélisation dynamique dépendent étroitement, pour leurs spécifications, sur des données échantillonnées. Ceci découle ?un manque ?informations a priori utiles pour la détermination de la structure de retard appropriée. Toutefois, on dispose fréquemment ?une riche source ?informations qui peuvent servir à définir les structures de retard dans les modèles de ?offre en agriculture. Cette information est liée aux processus biologiques et physiologiques caractérisant la production agricole. Dans le présent document, nous procédons à la spécification et à ?estimation ?un modèle économétrique trimestriel du comportement de ?offre dans le secteur américain du pore. Ce modèle incorpore directement dans la spécification les caractéristiques biologiques pertinentes de la production porcine. Nous évaluons ?intégrité structurale du modèle en examinant ?aptitude prédictive post-échantillonnage et les valeurs moyennes ?élasticité. Nos résultats laissent conclure à une performance qui vient corroborer le comportement observé dans le secteur américain du porc.     

U.S. Farm Policy and the Volatility of Commodity Prices and Farm Revenues

A dynamic three-commodity rational-expectations storage model is used to compare the impact of the Federal Agricultural Improvement and Reform (FAIR) Act of 1996 with a free-market policy, and with pre-FAIR policies. Results suggest that FAIR did not lead to significant increases in long-run price volatility or revenue volatility. The main impact of pre-FAIR, relative to the free-market regime, was to substitute government storage for private storage in a way that did little to support prices or to stabilize farm incomes. Results also indicate that U.S. grain market volatility in 1995–2000 was due to fundamental market forces and not to FAIR.     

Tracing the evolution of the aggregate U.S. milk supply elasticity using a herd dynamics model

The U.S. dairy sector is characterized by increasing volatility of milk prices, and consolidation in production as evidenced by declining number of dairy farms with an increasingly larger share of milk supplied from a small number of very large farms. Using aggregate national data, we build a mixed‐frequency herd dynamics econometric model of the U.S. milk supply that updates and substantially amends the model first proposed by Chavas and Klemme. We implement a dynamic residual‐based bootstrap technique that can be used in testing for changes in nonmarginal simulated long‐run supply responsiveness, and trace the evolution of long‐run milk supply elasticity from 1975 through 2010. Several papers in the past have suggested that long‐run supply elasticity increases with dairy farm size, which implies that increased importance of large farms would increase aggregate long‐run supply responsiveness. Contrary to this conclusion, we find a declining trend in long‐run supply elasticity from 1975 through 2005. Persistence of such a decline would be a major cause for worry, as ever larger price swings would be needed to equilibrate the market in face of demand shocks. However, we find that milk supply is becoming more responsive since 2005 both to milk and feed price changes. Increasing responsiveness to feed prices further justifies focusing the next generation of the dairy policy instruments on managing dairy profit margins rather than just revenue streams.     

Assessing the U.S. Market Economics for a Cultured Flounder,Paralichthys sp., Industry

There is considerable interest in the culture of flounder because of its high retail market value, the established worldwide market for flatfish, and the ability of flounder to grow in fresh or brackish water. The author assesses the U.S. market potential for a cultured flounder, Paralichthys sp., industry. Regression analyses were used to estimate both the price and income elasticity of demand for flounder. Demand forecasting was used to predict effective annual future demand for flounder. Although the U.S. flounder market is large and expanding, there are indications of excess supply suppressing prices below profitable levels for aquaculture producers. Demand is price inelastic, so an increase in supply from aquaculture production will produce a disproportionately large decrease in price, reducing total producer revenue. Unless niche markets are targeted or an export market is developed, the outlook for large-scale flounder aquaculture in the United States is not economically promising.     

Supply Chain Management in Cereal Grains: A Case Study from the U.S. Milling Wheat Industry

This paper studies supply chain management in the grain industry by investigating the effects of wheat quality on marketing arrangements between wheat producers, grain handling companies and processors. Wheat quality is defined by many different characteristics, broadly categorized into physical and intrinsic quality attributes. The complexity of wheat quality places limitations on the effectiveness of industry grading schemes in assuring end-use quality. In the U.S., wheat grading factors mostly reflect physical characteristics. Moreover, the U.S. wheat industry does little to regulate the intrinsic quality of new cultivars. Consequently, there is functional quality uncertainty in the U.S. wheat market, encouraging some individual processors to segregate wheat based on their own quality specifications. The costs and benefits of wheat segregation are illustrated with a case study of wheat procurement taken from the U.S. flour industry. Pendleton Flour Mills Inc. operates a stringent testing program to segregate wheat supplies with specific intrinsic quality attributes from the U.S. wheat market. The paper concludes that the inadequacy of the U.S. grading system in guaranteeing functional quality provides some processors with an incentive to manage the supply chain for milling wheat.     

U.S. Canned Tuna Supply and Demand

Abstract

A 3SLS econometric model is used to estimate price elasticities of supply and demand for domestically produced and imported canned tuna in the U.S. market. In addition, a VAR model is developed to examine the relations between imports and domestically produced canned tuna. For domestically produced canned tuna, a 3SLS estimation of a structural econometric model yielded a coefficient for price elasticity of supply of 0.2 and of own-price demand of ?0.3. Such price inelasticities are expected of a fishery exploited at or near its maximum yields (inelastic supply), and a consumer product widely viewed as almost a necessity in a well-stocked pantry (inelastic demand). In addition, the model yielded a cross-price elasticity of demand with respect to the price of imported canned tuna of 0.45. Additional results include an income elasticity U.S. demand for domestically packed tuna of 0.83; a cross-price elasticity with the price of bread (a complement) of ?0.33, a cross-price elasticity for the price of ground meat (a substitute) of 0.30. With respect to imported canned tuna in the U.S. market, the corresponding elasticities estimated in the model are ?1.3 (own-price demand), 3.5 (income elasticity), ?1.2 (cross-price with the price of bread) and 2.5 (cross-price with the price of ground meat).

For canned tuna company managers, the results provide useful information about the likely effects on sales that would come from their own price changes, from changes in the price of imported canned tuna, and from price changes in the markets for complementary and substitute products. They can also use our results in discussions with U.S. trade negotiators, who are frequently faced with disputes over tariffs, market access, and other trade issues.     

Competitive Behavior in the U.S. Food Retailing Industry

We develop a model to examine competitive conditions in the U.S. food retailing industry for the years 1967 to 1992 and the effect of financial leverage on industry cost conditions. Changes in total current liabilities contributed to increases in costs while increases in long-term debt were associated with lower costs. The impacts of key technological and market developments on shifts in the competitive index are assessed. The estimated index of market power was low, although significantly different from the perfect competition benchmark of zero from 1983 to 1992. The slight decline in competitive conditions was associated with mergers and acquisitions activity in food retailing.
Nous avons élaboré un modèle mathématique pour examiner: 1) les conditions de concurrentialité agissant dans le marché au détail des aliments aux États-Unis durant la période s'étendant de 1967 à 1992 et 2) l'effet du poids financier sur les conditions de cout du secteur. Les modifications de I'endettement total courant contribuent a accroître les coûts, tandis que les accroissements de I'endettement à long terme auraient plutôt I'effet inverse. Nous examinons I'impact des développements dans les domaines de la technologie et du marché sur les fluctuations de I'indice concurrentiel. L'indice estimatif de pouvoir sur le marchéétait has bien que signiflcativement différent de la marque repére de zéro (situation de concurrence parfaite) pour les années 1983–1992. La légére baisse des conditions de compétitivité est expliquée par les nombreuses fusions et acquisitions survenues dans le marché au détail des aliments durant cette période.     

Smallholder Supply Response to Marketing Board Activities in a Dual Channel Marketing System: The Case of Zambia

In recent years, parastatal grain marketing boards have re‐emerged as important elements of grain markets in eastern and southern Africa, yet little is known about how farmers are responding to their scaled up activities. This article develops a conceptual model of farmers’ production decisions in the context of dual output marketing channels (government and private sector) when output prices at harvest time and the availability of one of the marketing channels are unknown at planting time. It then applies the model to the case of Zambia and uses nationally representative household‐level panel survey data to estimate the effects of the Food Reserve Agency (FRA), the government parastatal maize marketing board, on smallholder crop production and fallow land. The FRA buys maize from smallholders at a pan‐territorial price that typically exceeds market prices in major maize producing areas. Results suggest that increases in the farmgate FRA maize price raise farmer maize price expectations, which induces a supply response. Smallholders respond to an increase in the FRA price by extensifying their maize production. On average, a 1% increase in the FRA price is associated with 0.06% increases in smallholders’ maize area planted and quantity harvested. There is also some evidence that farmers reduce the area of land under fallow in response to FRA incentives but there is no evidence of reductions in the area planted to other crops.     

Issues Affecting the U.S. Poultry Industry and International Poultry Trade

Abstract

This study was conducted to examine issues and concerns that may affect the future direction of the U.S. poultry industry and international poultry trade. Given the economic contribution of the poultry industry, it is important to have some understanding about the future direction of the industry, both at the national and international levels. To generate the information required, this study surveyed the top poultry producers in the country as well as specialists and experts in the industry. Although both the producers and specialists believe that the industry has a bright future, they also think that the rapid production growth experienced by the poultry industry in the past two decades cannot be sustained. Growth restrictions in the industry will come from a variety of sources such as environmental waste management, food safety, labor shortages, animal welfare, and increased foreign competition.     

Trade Liberalization,Policy Reform and the U.S. Sugar Industry

This study examines the prospects for and potential impacts of liberalized international trade in sugar. It utilizes a state specific, cost of production based estimate of U.S. sugar supply to examine producer surplus under the current sugar policy regime and under a free trade scenario. It also evaluates the long-term viability of sugar production in individual states at free market prices.     

Impacts of Declining U.S. Retail Beef Demand on Farm-Level Beef Prices and Production

A systems model was estimated to determine the effects of declining U.S. retail beef demand on farm-level beef prices and production. Retail beef demand declined by nearly 66% from 1976 to 1999. Results indicate autonomous shifts in retail demand significantly impacted farm-level demands and production. Based on equilibrium multipliers, the 1976–99 reduction in beef demand decreased real slaughter cattle prices and production by 32.1% and 11.2%, respectively. Real feeder cattle prices and production decreased by 8.0% and 22.6%, respectively. Combining the decreases in farm prices and production, slaughter and feeder cattle producers experienced a real revenue reduction of $13.3 billion (61%) due to the long-term decline in demand.     

Regime switching and oligopsony power: the case of U.S. beef processing

In this article, we estimate a model of oligopsony behavior under imperfect monitoring of rival actions to analyze weekly marketing margin data for the U.S. beef packing industry. Oligopsonists are hypothesized to follow a discontinuous pricing strategy in equilibrium, and we focus on shocks in the normal throughput of supply as a potential catalyst for regime switching between cooperative and noncooperative phases. We adopt an algorithm developed by Bellone (2005) that relies on Hamilton’s (1989) multivariate first‐order Markov process to test for the cooperative/noncooperative switching behavior. We find strong evidence that links switching conduct by packers to disruptions in coordinating the derived demands for processed beef with the supply of live cattle. Once switched, cooperative regimes lasted an average of 21 weeks, while noncooperative regimes averaged 33 weeks. The average marketing margin for processed beef was 68% lower in the noncooperative regimes compared to the cooperative regimes. This led to an annual average increase in profits of 408 million dollars to the beef packing industry and about an 8–9% reduction in live cattle prices.     

Market and Cost Structure in the U.S. Beef Packing Industry: A Plant-Level Analysis

A resurgence of consolidation in the U.S. meat packing industry in the past few decades has stimulated academic and policy debate. Issues raised include the role of cost economies in driving these patterns, and the effects on the agricultural sector (cattle producers) from market power. Here, plant level cost and revenue data for U.S. beef packing plants are used to estimate a cost-based model incorporating cattle- and output-market pricing behavior. The robust results indicate little market power exploitation in either the cattle input or beef output markets, and that any apparent evidence is counteracted by cost efficiencies such as utilization and scope economies.     

The Effects of NAFTA on Trade and Welfare in the U.S. Fresh Tomato Industry

Abstract

The purpose of this study was to measure NAFTA's impact to date and quantify how the producers and consumers of fresh tomatoes in the United States, Canada and Mexico have benefited or lost. Changes in consumer and producer surpluses were calculated in 2001 US dollars based on simulations of two scenarios. The analysis found that U.S. consumers captured $12.1 billion more surplus than they would have captured had NAFTA not been enacted. Mexican fresh tomato producers gained an additional $2.08 billion in surplus due to NAFTA. In contrast to Mexican growers, U.S. and Canadian producers appear not to have benefited economically from NAFTA. Findings suggest that U.S. producers would have earned $3.29 billion more if NAFTA had not gone into effect. Canadian producer surplus with NAFTA was estimated to be approximately $20 million less with NAFTA, and the total net benefit from NAFTA was found to be a positive $10.87 billion.     

农作物秸秆人造板工业原料供给模式研究

农作物秸秆人造板产业是一项可持续发展的产业,对国民经济的发展起到重要的作用。文章主要针对农作物秸秆原料供应过程的所出现的不协调(供需矛盾)进行深入分析,同时在对传统的农作物秸秆供给模式进行分析的基础上,总结提出了四种适宜我国农作物秸秆人造板企业发展的原料供给模式。     

林业产业管理的新动态:林业绿色供应链

将绿色供应链中的绿色制造拓展到林业资源培育等环节,研究林业产业多目标管理的新动态——林业绿色供应链问题。在对一般绿色供应链的基本思想和发展动态进行系统梳理的基础上,研究了林业绿色供应链的内涵、特性、理论基础和研究动态,并探讨了其应用领域的相关问题。通过这些研究,提出了林业绿色供应链管理的思想,指出其核心问题是林业资源链、价值链和生态链的协同共生,即绿色共生问题;勾勒出林业绿色供应链的理论基础——绿色共生理论的基本内涵;并以林-浆-纸产业链为例,对林业绿色供应链共生系统的结构和共生模式研究提出了建议。同时指出了林业产业可持续发展发展的新途径,为林业绿色供应链的研究提供了建设性思路。     

Trade Bans, Imperfect Competition, and Welfare: BSE and the U.S. Beef Industry

Between May 2003 and July 2005, the U.S. beef industry faced a total ban on Canadian cattle imports following the discovery of BSE in Canada in May 2003 and restrictions on U.S. beef exports following the discovery of BSE in the United States in December 2003. When the United States reopened its border to Canadian cattle in July 2005, shipments were restricted to cattle less than 30 months of age. The total ban on Canadian cattle imports and restrictions on U.S. beef exports overlapped between January 2004 and July 2005. The restrictions on Canadian cattle imports and U.S. beef exports overlapped for some time after July 2005. This paper addresses theoretically and empirically how to disentangle the impact on the U.S. beef industry of the BSE-related beef trade interruptions in the presence of overlaps and imperfect competition. Entre mai 2003 et juillet 2005, l'industrie bovine américaine s'est vue imposer une interdiction d'importer des bovins canadiens à la suite de la découverte d'un cas d'ESB au Canada en mai 2003 ainsi que des restrictions quant aux exportations de bœuf américain à la suite de la découverte d'un cas d'ESB aux États-Unis en décembre 2003. En juillet 2005, les États-Unis ont rouvert leur frontière aux bovins canadiens vivants de moins de 30 mois uniquement. L'interdiction absolue d'importer des bovins canadiens et les restrictions sur les exportations de bœuf américain se sont chevauchées entre janvier 2004 et juillet 2005. Les restrictions sur les importations de bovins canadiens et les exportations de bœuf américain se sont chevauchées pendant quelque temps après juillet 2005. Le présent article s'est penché sur les façons, théoriques et empiriques, de démĉler les répercussions que les interruptions du commerce du bœuf attribuables à l'ESB ont eues sur l'industrie bovine américaine en présence de chevauchements et de concurrence imparfaite.