Have capital market anomalies attenuated in the recent era of high liquidity and trading activity?

We examine whether the recent regime of increased liquidity and trading activity is associated with attenuation of prominent equity return anomalies due to increased arbitrage. We find that the majority of the anomalies have attenuated and the average returns from a portfolio strategy based on prominent anomalies have approximately halved after decimalization. We provide evidence that hedge fund assets under management, short interest and aggregate share turnover have led to the decline in anomaly-based trading strategy profits in recent years. Overall, our work indicates that policies to stimulate liquidity and ameliorate trading costs improve capital market efficiency.     

Changes in bonus contracts in the post-Sarbanes–Oxley era

We examine whether the relation between earnings and bonuses changes after Sarbanes–Oxley. Theory predicts that, as the financial reporting system reduces the discretion allowed managers, firms will put more weight on earnings in compensation contracts to encourage effort. However, the increased risk imposed by Sarbanes–Oxley on executives may cause firms to temper this contracting outcome. We examine and find support for the joint hypothesis that the implementation of Sarbanes–Oxley and related reforms led to a decrease in earnings management and that firms responded by placing more weight on earnings in bonus contracts. We find no evidence that firms changed compensation contracts to compensate executives for assuming more risk.     

Has the likelihood of appointing a CEO with an accounting/finance background changed in the post-Sarbanes Oxley era?

Congress passed the Sarbanes–Oxley Act (SOX) in July 2002 to improve the accuracy and reliability of financial reporting. The Act increased boards of directors’ responsibilities for financial reporting and control. Did it consequently increase boards’ preferences for a CEO with financial experience to protect against the potential reputational and/or legal losses that directors incur when financial scandals happen? We investigated whether newly appointed CEOs in the post-SOX period were more likely to have accounting or finance experience than in the pre-SOX period. Using a sample of 264 CEO changes from 2001 to 2004, we found that the percentage of newly-appointed CEOs with accounting/finance backgrounds significantly increased in the post-SOX period compared to the pre-SOX period. Our results suggest that the events surrounding the passage of the Sarbanes–Oxley Act may have affected the CEO background experience preferred by boards of directors.     

Does the federal reserve possess an exploitable informational advantage?

This paper provides evidence that the Federal Reserve has an informational advantage over the public that can be exploited to improve activist monetary policy. The informational superiority does not result from the Fed having earlier access to publicly released financial data. Instead, this advantage is generated by confidential supervisory knowledge about troubled, non-publicly traded institutions. As a result, this information can remain confidential for an extended period, since these banks have neither the desire to fully disclose the extent of their financial troubles, nor the requirement to do so. The informational advantage is both statistically significant and economically important, providing a potential justification for activist monetary policy.     

Hostility in Takeovers: In the Eyes of the Beholder?

This paper examines whether hostile takeovers can be distinguished from friendly takeovers, empirically, based on accounting and stock performance data. Much has been made of this distinction in both the popular and the academic literature, where gains from hostile takeovers result from replacing incumbent managers and gains from friendly takeovers result from strategic synergies. Alternatively, hostility could reflect strategic choices made by the bidder or the target. Empirical tests show that most deals described as hostile in the press are not distinguishable from friendly deals in economic terms, except that hostile transactions involve publicity as part of the bargaining process.     

What’s in the news? The ambiguity of the information content of index reconstitutions in Germany

We analyze stock price behavior around reconstitutions of the German DAX index family from 1990 to 2013. The strong price run-up of added stocks in the 2 months preceding the announcement date remains robust until 2 months after the effective date (ED), and is fully reversed 5 months later. Conversely, stock prices of deleted firms are under pressure until 10 months after the ED. Unlike most previous studies, we find that outright entries and exits have temporary price effects, as do additions to and deletions from better-known indices; however, promotions and demotions related to lesser-known indices command permanent stock price responses. Rather surprisingly, deleted stocks consistently earn higher abnormal returns than added stocks in the 5-year post-event period. Specifically, the return differential levels out at 77.3%. We establish that this differential in permanent stock prices is attributable to differences in operating performance and media coverage. In practice, index reconstitutions do not appear to give unambiguous signals about the long-run investment appeal of affected firms. However, index fund managers not constrained by tracking error minimization would be better off holding deleted stocks for 5 years after the ED.     

Does the choice in valuation method matter in the judicial appraisal of private firms?

This paper investigates empirical relations between the redemption values of minority shares and valuation methods used by dissenting parties in the judicial valuation of private firms. We examine a comprehensive data set of Finnish judicial appraisal cases in which the judge decides the valuation of the minority stake in a private firm after learning the valuation estimates put forward by the controlling shareholder(s) and the minority shareholder(s). Rationality in valuation will be achieved if a valuation estimate incorporates all the available information regardless of the valuation method adopted. Conversely, the measurement perspective argues that biases inherent in valuation approaches determine the information content in a valuation estimate. Our statistical analyses suggest that the choices made concerning the valuation method are statistically correlated with the appraisal outcomes. We interpret this as evidence consistent with the measurement perspective.     

How biased is the behavior of the individual investor in warrants?

Based on the actual trading behavior of individual investors in the Portuguese financial market during almost ten years this paper examines the socio-demographic characteristics of retail investors in warrants, and discusses the hypothesis that some behavioral biases do have an impact on the investors’ predisposition to invest and trade in warrants, a complex financial instrument. One finds that there is a profile of investors in warrants: younger and less educated men are more likely to invest in warrants and that overconfident, disposition-prone and investors exhibiting a gambling attitude are more likely to invest and trade in warrants. Secondly, the gambling motive seems to be a distinguishing characteristic of investors in warrants. In other words, when investors are driven to trade in financial markets for pleasure/fun they tend to trade complex products more and to trade simple and easier to understand financial instruments less. Finally, the higher the intensity of trading the more relevant are the disposition and the gambler’s biases.     

What drives the market value of firms in the defense industry?

This article assesses the relative importance of different types of news in driving significant stock price changes in the defense industry. We implement a systematic event study with the 58 largest publicly listed companies in the defense industry, over the time period 1995-2005. We first identify, for each firm, the statistically significant abnormal returns over the time period. Then, we look for information releases likely to cause such stock price movements. Most of the key drivers in the defense industry are the same as in other industries (key role of formal earnings announcements and analysts’ recommendations) but we also identify some specific features, in particular the influence of geopolitical events and the relevance and frequency of bids and contracts on stock prices. Finally, we examine the impact of the September 11 terrorist attacks on defense firms.     

Fear of floating in Asia and the credibility of true floaters?

Quite often, countries commit to free floating exchange rate (ER) regimes but do not allow their ERs to float freely, exhibiting a fear of floating. We revisit ER regimes in Asia following the work of Calvo and Reinhart (2002), and also develop a new flexibility index based on probabilities gauging interventions in FX market. In light of our findings, we cannot disregard the existence of fear of floating in Asia, and find that economies widely known as truly floating economies exhibit this fear too. Further, the results validate our concerns regarding the IMF’s methodology of regime classification intermingling credible inflation targeting with fear of floating.     

What provides the micro-foundation of monetary policies in the absence of mature economic institutions?

In the absence of mature economic institutions, what provides the micro-foundation of monetary policies? Taking corporate financing of China's firms as a representative example, first, our data suggest that financial access of firms becomes indeed squeezed as the monetary policies require. Then we confirm that government intervention leads firms' financial access to become difficult since the financial contraction policies. We also provide evidence that government intervention indeed promotes severity of access to finance. These evidences confirm that government intervention squeezes financial access after central government's financial contraction policies and that government intervention functions to support the implementation of monetary policies. Therefore, this paper shows that government intervention provides micro-foundation of the monetary policies in the absence of mature economic institutions.     

Is the social representation of nanotechnology anchored in that of GMOs?

The use of nanotechnology (devices/materials composed of parts less than 10 nanometres) in the development of new products is rapidly expanding. Industrialists and decision-makers consider nanotechnology to be the next industrial revolution, but fear they risk the same resistance to nanotechnology that their counterparts experienced with genetically modified organisms (GMOs). Although risk perception studies have shown that perceived risk of GMOs is quite high compared to that related to nanotechnology, no study to date has explored a potential direct social representation link between the two. The present study aims to fill that gap by comparing the social representations of nanotechnology and GMOs among a population of non-experts. This study was conducted with 282 students in human and social sciences and natural sciences. Using a free association task with the inductive words ‘nanotechnology’ and ‘GMO (genetically modified organism)’, we identified the existing social representations of the two based on a structural approach. While the representation of GMOs is objectified in the field of agriculture, objectification for nanotechnology seems to still be lacking, although its possible objectification likely lies in computing and robotics. Our calculation of the rate of similarity of associative words with nanotechnology and GMOs indicated no present, direct link between their social representations. We discuss the possible evolution of the social representation of nanotechnology over time.     

The Impact of Austerity in the Framework of Corporate Rescue and the Rights of Workers in the EU: A Road to Recovery?

The financial crisis and the sovereign debt crisis have been attributed to a number of causes. Whether these are economic, social, cultural or legal, they are all by and large also political. The aim of this article is not to delve into the myriad of heated political arguments that continue to dominate the scene but to assess the impact of the financial crisis on the employment protection rights and the corporate rescue regimes in Greece, Portugal, France and the UK. In light of the crisis, the rights of the workforce have been severely compromised to afford financially troubled companies a greater opportunity to recover. In order to minimise the catastrophic impact of financial turmoil on their economy and society, all four jurisdictions introduced reforms to their labour codes and corporate rescue mechanisms, often in the name of austerity. This article will offer a snapshot of the changes and their effects and an assessment whether or not the reforms of pre‐insolvency regimes have operated as an effective embankment for the protection of social and economic welfare. The purpose of this piece is to shed a light on the changes that have occurred and that have affected employment rights in the domestic legal systems of individual member states, as influenced to some extent by the EU in its expectations of improvements to increase labour market flexibility, and whether corporate rescue mechanisms in individual member states are able to provide some counterbalance to the erosion of employment rights generally. Copyright © 2017 INSOL International and John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Are regime-shift sources of risk priced in the market?

In this paper we develop a discrete-time pricing model for European options where the log-return of the underlying asset is subject to discontinuous regime shifts in its mean and/or volatility which follow a Markov chain. The model allows for multiple regime shifts whose risk cannot be hedge out and thus must be priced in option market. The paper provides estimates of the price of regime-shift risk coefficients based on a joint estimation procedure of the Markov regime-switching process of the underlying stock and the suggested option pricing model. The results of the paper indicate that bull-to-bear and bear-to-crash regime shifts carry substantial prices of risk. Risk averse investors in the markets price these regime shifts by assigning higher transition (switching) probabilities to them under the risk neutral probability measure than under the physical. Ignoring these sources of risk will lead to substantial option pricing errors. In addition, the paper shows that investors also price reverse regime shifts, like the crash-to-bear and bear-to-bull ones, by assigning smaller transition probabilities under the risk neutral measure than the physical. Finally, the paper evaluates the pricing performance of the model and indicates that it can be successfully employed, in practice, to price European options.     

Lemmings in the bond market? An empirical analysis of the term structure of credit spreads

The paper examines the credit spread between government and corporate bonds at different maturities. Theoretical models assume that credit risk premiums for high quality firms monotonously increase with maturity. We find evidence suggesting that bonds issued at maturities attracting the highest issuance volumes tend to have credit risk premiums that are on average 10 to 15 basis points higher than issues at nonconventional maturities. These results point out a shortcoming of existing theoretical models and show that the credit yield curve is not smooth, but affected by the local supply of issues at various parts of the yield curve. In addition, the empirical evidence presented in this paper indicates that firms utilizing the bond markets for funding could lower their funding costs by shifting the term of their debt away from the most commonly targeted maturities.

Survival of the Fittest or the Fattest? Exit and Financing in the Trucking Industry

This paper studies the impact that capital market imperfections have on the natural selection of the most efficient firms by estimating the effect of the prederegulation level of leverage on the survival of trucking firms after the Carter deregulation. Highly leveraged carriers are less likely to survive the deregulation shock, even after controlling for various measures of efficiency. This effect is stronger in the imperfectly competitive segment of the motor carrier industry. High debt seems to affect survival by curtailing investments and reducing the price per ton-mile that a carrier can afford to charge after deregulation.     

Are there differences in the effectiveness of quantitative easing at the zero-lower-bound in Japan over time?

Using a time-varying parameter vector autoregression (TVP-VAR) framework with a new set of sign restrictions, we study the changing effectiveness of the Bank of Japan's Quantitative Easing policies over time. We specifically analyse the so-called Zero-Interest Rate Policy from 1999 to 2000, the Quantitative Easing Policy from 2001 to 2006, and most recently the so-called ‘Abenomics’ strategy.Our results indicate important differences of the Quantitative Easing (QE) shocks on the Japanese economy over time. More specifically, we find important time variation in the responses of core CPI and real GDP. With regard to the different monetary policy episodes in Japan we find somewhat more pronounced effects on core CPI during ‘Abenomics’. The responses of the price level are generally found to be stronger and more significant than those of real GDP. This holds particularly for the ‘Abenomics’ period. These results are mirrored by our variance decomposition analysis.