城市土地开发约束与支持的协调度评价——以浙江省为例

研究目的:以浙江省为例,探索城市土地开发约束与支持的协调度评价新思路,分析城市土地开发协调度的时空分异特征。研究方法:灰色关联熵法,协调度模型。研究结果:(1)浙江省城市土地开发约束力强度东北部高,西南部低,支持力强度分布与之相似;(2)时间上,2000—2015年浙江省城市整体土地开发协调度呈现"升高—降低"的变化趋势;(3)空间上,浙江省城市土地开发协调度北高南低,且具有"小集中—大分散"的特征。研究结论:将协调度理论应用于城市土地开发评价中,并对土地开发约束力与支持力量化后采用灰色关联熵法建立复杂时空权重矩阵,以此建立的土地开发约束与支持的协调度评价体系具有实际价值与可操作性。     

基于协调度模型的开发区土地开发效益评价——以浙江省南浔经济开发区为例

选取与经济效益相关的9个指标,构建开发区土地开发效益评价的协调度模型和指标体系,并以浙江省南浔经济开发区为例,在运用层次分析法(AHP法)和熵权法分别确定指标权重基础上,计算出综合权重,对开发区的开发效益进行评价。研究表明:南浔经济开发区土地开发效益较差,协调度模型能够较好的反映开发区土地开发效益的实际水平。通过对结果进行分析,提出针对开发区提高土地开发效益的建议。     

城市土地集约利用与生态效率耦合协调分析——以东北地区为例

运用全局主成分分析法、熵权TOPSIS法,并通过耦合协调度模型及探索性空间数据分析,对东北地区2006—2017年城市土地集约利用程度与生态效率水平进行评价,进而对两系统耦合协调度的时空演变及空间集聚特征展开探究。结果表明:(1)区域土地利用效率和生态效率总体均呈上升态势,但没有城市实现理想上的同步发展,土地集约利用滞后是限制协调度的主要因素。(2)城市土地集约利用与生态效率间的耦合度较高,协调关系逐步优化,协调类型从中度失调过渡到初级协调,年均指数为0.543。省域协调度值由北向南逐渐递增,哈尔滨—大连交通经济带城市协调度水平整体较好,北方边缘城市带协调度有待提高。(3)耦合协调度相近的城市彼此邻近,表现出“北冷南热”的空间集聚分布规律,总体格局相对稳定。     

基于协调度模型的开发区土地开发效益评价——以浙江省南浔经济开发区为例

本文构建了开发区土地开发效益评价的协调度模型和指标体系,主要选取了与经济效益相关的9个指标进行评价。以浙江省南浔经济开发区为例,本文在运用层次分析法（AHP法）和熵权法分别确定了指标权重基础上,计算出综合权重．对开发区的开发效益进行了评价。最后通过对结果进行分析评价,提出了针对开发区提高土地开发效益的建议。     

城市经济—生态—社会协调度评价及空间差异分析

以国家级生态市建设为政策前提,以平凉市为研究对象,从经济发展、生态环境保护和社会进步3个方面构建了平凉市经济—生态—社会协调度评价指标体系。采用熵值法确定评价指标权重,用功效函数构建经济—生态—社会协调度评价模型,对平凉市经济—生态—社会协调度进行评价分析。结果表明:2002-2011年这10年间平凉生态城市综合协调度逐步提高。综合协调度从2002年的0.242(不协调)逐步上升到2011年的0.7588(比较协调),平均以每年0.05168速度在增长,平凉生态城市建设经历一个"不协调—不太协调—基本协调—比较协调"的渐进型发展过程。2011年平凉市各县区的生态协调度指数从高到低依次是:华亭县、崇信县、崆峒区、泾川县、庄浪县、静宁县和灵台县。聚类将平凉市7县区分成4种类型,即华亭与崇信为高度协调型、崆峒区良好协调型、泾川、庄浪与静宁中等协调型、灵台基本协调型。研究结果与平凉市实际情况基本符合,表明所建立的城市经济—生态—社会协调度评价指标体系的合理性和有效性,为城市经济—生态—社会协调度评价指标体系的完善提供依据。     

丘陵地区乡村旅游与新型城镇化关系研究*——以四川省南充市为例

［目的］通过以丘陵城市为研究对象，建立乡村旅游与新型城镇化耦合关联指标体系，评价四川省南充市乡村旅游与新型城镇化耦合协调度。［方法］运用熵权综合指数、耦合协调度模型、趋势分析、空间自相关模型分析方法，分析2007—2016 年南充市乡村旅游与新型城镇化时空耦合协调发展关系，运用GeoDa软件计算南充市乡村旅游与新型城镇化耦合协调度的空间相关特征。［结果］南充市乡村旅游与新型城镇化发展水平并不协调，呈“高耦合，低协调”状态； 耦合协调程度总体偏低、发展缓慢； 耦合度和耦合协调度发展趋势不一致，呈“反向”分布态势； 耦合协调度空间相关性较弱，各县域单元临近区域乡村旅游与新型城镇化水平存在差异性，没有显著的空间关联。［结论］南充市乡村旅游与新型城镇化耦合协调度水平低，发展慢，空间集聚特征不显著，关联性弱。丘陵地区乡村旅游与新型城镇化的融合发展，应充分发挥丘陵地形优势，提升乡村品质发展丘陵沟谷乡村游； 发展河谷江滩乡村游构建养生养老体系； 延续丘陵文脉，优化乡村空间发展格局。     

粮食主产区土地生态与粮食安全耦合协调性分析

目的 分析粮食主产区土地生态安全和粮食安全耦合协调状况及时空演变，为提升粮食主产区土地生态与粮食安全协调发展水平及农业绿色发展提供决策参考。方法 文章以粮食主产区为研究对象，基于土地生态与粮食安全相关数据，构建土地生态安全与粮食安全的评价体系，采用熵权法、耦合协调模型和相对发展度模型定量分析了二者的综合评价值、耦合协调水平及耦合协调发展类型。结果 （1）2009—2018年粮食主产区土地生态安全与粮食安全耦合协调度从0.369增至0.433，呈“缓慢上升”态势，协调类型由轻度失调跃升至濒临失调，空间布局呈现“北高南低”的分布特征。（2）各省区耦合协调发展类型分为3类：低度磨合土地生态滞后、高度磨合同步发展及低度磨和粮食安全滞后。结论 针对土地生态与粮食安全的耦合协调发展类型采取差异化措施，实现粮食安全与土地生态安全协同发展。     

汝阳县经济发展与生态环境耦合协调时空演变分析

文章分别构建经济发展与生态环境指标体系，采取熵权TOPSIS法和耦合协调度模型等方法，研究2006年和2016年汝阳县村域经济发展与生态环境状况，并对二者耦合协调度及其时空演变格局进行综合分析，结果表明：研究区经济发展系统综合评价指数从2006年的0.080上升到2016年的0.281，表明该地区经济发展的总体水平有明显提升；生态环境系统综合评价指数变化不大，2006年与2016年均为0.300，表明生态环境质量整体上没有较大破坏；2006—2016年，汝阳县耦合度不断上升，而协调度、耦合协调度呈现出了下降趋势，汝阳县北部的耦合度和协调度整体上比南部要低。     

吉林省土地利用空间均衡度评价研究

研究目的:评价吉林省土地利用空间均衡度可以正确理解吉林省目前土地使用状态,为制定准确的土地利用制度与政策提供依据。研究方法:极值标准化方法、算术平均法和几何平均法、聚类分析法。研究结果:吉林省土地利用9市(州)中,长春市、辽源市、吉林市处于开发过度状态,四平市、松原市、白城市为相对均衡状态,通化市、白山市、延边州为发展不足状态。研究结论:区域土地空间均衡是区域开发规模和强度与空间实际供给能力的相对协调;吉林省区域土地供给能力为东南部最大,东北地区最低;开发的强度表现为中—西—东的区域开发递减;区域土地空间均衡度为中—西—东部地区呈现过度开发—相对均衡—开发不足的规律分布。     

基于耦合协调度的土地利用经济效益空间差异分析——以浙江省为例

研究目的:以土地投入产出率为支点,探析浙江省11个城市的土地利用经济效益的空间相关性和异质性,以期为高效利用和优化配置土地资源提供参考。研究方法:耦合协调度模型、熵值法和空间分析法。研究结果:(1)浙江省土地利用经济效益整体水平较高,但各城市之间土地利用经济效益的空间差异性显著;(2)浙江省土地利用经济效益表现出显著的空间集聚形态;(3)浙江省土地利用经济效益空间差异主要受区位条件、城市发展策略、产业结构、城市人口数量与质量的影响。研究结论:根据区域土地利用经济效益的空间分异特点,制定差异化策略,推动土地利用综合经济效益的最大化。     

Price transmission between products at different stages of manufacturing in forest industries

The theory of demand and supply implies a positive relationship, or “price transmission” between the prices of products at different stages of manufacturing. This relationship was investigated with quarterly prices of softwood stumpage in the US South, and national prices of forest products, from 1977 to 2002. All prices, net of inflation, were found to be nonstationary and there was no evidence of co-integration between prices. Vector autogressive models, augmented by Granger causality tests and multiplier analysis showed that there was a one-to-one permanent positive response of the southern sawtimber stumpage price to a permanent change in the national lumber price. There was also a one-third permanent positive response of the national paper price to a permanent change in the national pulp price. There was no relation between regional pulpwood prices and national pulp or paper prices. When price transmission was significant, the full adjustment took about 2 years.     

Application of an ecosystem function framework to perceptions of community woodlands

Owners, local residents, government, and conservation organisations can express divergent preferences in the development and management of local woodlands. The perceptions of these four groups were examined, in the context of three community woodlands in Eastern England, using an ecosystem function framework. In a pilot study, residents were able to allocate a relative importance to woodland ecosystem services which were then related to “regulation”, “habitat”, and “production” or “information” functions. However residents also placed importance on negative services or “dis-services” associated with the woodland ecosystem. Therefore a fifth category of “dis-services” was included in the main survey which included 84 local residents, three woodland owners, three government institutions, and six representatives from conservation groups. Each of the four groups placed greatest importance on services associated with habitat (16–39% of the total importance) and information (30–50%) functions suggesting, in this example, mutual interest in the use of woodlands as a habitat or recreational resource. By contrast a potential area of difference was the particularly high importance placed by one owner on dis-services such as fly tipping. In addition the woodland owners placed higher importance (10–20%), than local residents and conservation groups (7–9%), on the productive services of the wood. This suggests a need for communication when production-related operations affect recreation. The ecosystem function framework appears to be a useful approach for highlighting potential tensions and areas of mutual interest in the management of semi-natural ecosystems.     

In Vino ‘No’ Veritas: impacts of fraud on wine imports in China

China is one of the largest wine importing countries in the world and is poised for continued import growth in the future. Increased wine purchases throughout China have given rise to persistent fraud where fake wines are packaged and sold with counterfeit contents and labels. For exporting countries like France, counterfeit wines displace market share, damage foreign brand reputation, and cause distrust in consumers who are aware of counterfeiting problems throughout the country. We examine the impact of fraudulent wine events (as measured by negative media reports) on Chinese wine demand differentiated by supplying country. We employ the Rotterdam demand system and a switching regression procedure to estimate import demand and compare results across different media variable specifications. Results consistently show that negative reports disproportionately affect French wine regardless of how the media variable is specified. This is not surprising because most fraudulent events involve French wine counterfeits.     

An evaluation framework for earthquake-responsive land administration

In recent years earthquakes and their secondary hazards have claimed the largest number of lives of all large natural disasters. Some of the world’s most earthquake-prone zones are also areas of high population density. The impact is magnified by vulnerability factors including non-enforcement of building codes, knowledge gaps, urban poverty and poor governance capacity to manage and reduce earthquake risks. Poor security of land tenure and property rights increases the vulnerability of people and affects their ability to respond to natural disasters.Earthquake recovery and reconstruction provides very significant challenges for land agencies, with these challenges differing from one country to the next due to differences in the local context. Drawing on contrasting case studies in Haiti, Nepal and New Zealand this paper identifies the common post-earthquake land administration functions and challenges that may apply to many contexts. These lessons provide land agencies and other key stakeholders with a summary of the challenges an earthquake poses for land administration at different post-disaster stages. We also discuss the policy and regulatory, institutional, operational and preparedness lessons for land administration. From these lessons we propose a framework for evaluating the earthquake-responsiveness of a land administration system. This framework can be used by a land agency in an earthquake prone region, or where an earthquake has recently occurred, to assess what challenges to land administration might occur in the event of an earthquake, and the preparedness of their land administration system.     

Agrarian Poverty,Nutrition and Economic Class – A Study of Gujarat,India

This paper analyses poverty and calorific undernourishment in the Indian state of Gujarat, where high and market‐led industrial growth has resulted in rapid economic improvement. The study is carried out through a combination of secondary and survey‐based data. We conclude that the neoliberal agenda of uncontrolled, outward‐looking growth has not resulted in significant reduction of poverty or malnourishment in rural areas. Furthermore, while land ownership is officially used as a proxy for wealth distribution, class position appears a better predictor of poverty status in the rural areas than landownership per se. At the policy level, there is a need to revive the agrarian economy and create new non‐agricultural assets, and the primary focus in the state must shift to the distribution of created assets rather than a single‐minded focus on growth.     

Does sustainable agricultural growth require a system of innovation? Evidence from Ghana and Burkina Faso

This paper tests the ‘systems of innovation’ hypothesis for a selection of crops in Ghana and Burkina Faso that have shown significant growth in production over an approximately 20-year period. The question is whether such growth can only occur if supported by a system of innovation. Using two indicators (a common understanding on objectives and priorities, and a high level of interactivity), we find little evidence for the existence of anything that might be considered a high functioning system of innovation.     

Local impacts of industrial tree plantations: An empirical analysis in Indonesia across plantation types

The values ascribed to industrial tree plantations are often controversial. Hence knowledge of their perceived impacts is important for improving their integration in rural landscapes. In 2016 we conducted household surveys with 606 respondents living in villages adjacent to acacia, teak and pine plantations across three islands in Indonesia (Java, Borneo, Sumatra). Results show that perceptions toward pine and teak plantations tend to differ from those toward acacia pulpwood plantations in several ways. Pine and teak plantations are perceived to have a higher number and variety of benefits and services, a higher number of positive impacts, a better environmental record, and to present more opportunities to local people for use of plantation land and products for improving rural livelihoods. In addition, we find that villagers around acacia pulpwood plantations tend to seek economic development and infrastructure to open up remote areas, yet their expectations were often only partially met. Recommendations from our analysis include: the role of the State in plantations must be clarified and potentially reinforced; the role of institutions as intermediaries is fundamental; and contributions by communities to design of management plans should be accommodated.     

Upstream demand for water use by new tree plantations imposes externalities on downstream irrigated agriculture and wetlands*

Large‐scale tree plantations in high rainfall upstream areas can reduce fresh water inflows to river systems, thereby imposing external costs on downstream irrigation, stock and domestic water users and wetland interests. We take the novel approach of expressing all benefits and costs of establishing plantations in terms of $ per gigalitre (GL) of water removed annually from river flows, setting upstream demands on the same basis as downstream demands. For the Macquarie Valley, a New South Wales sub‐catchment of Australia’s Murray‐Darling Basin, we project changes in land and water use and changes in economic surpluses under two policy settings: without and with a policy requiring permanent water entitlements to be purchased from downstream parties, before plantation establishment. Without the policy, and given a high stumpage value for trees ($70/m³), upstream gains in economic surplus projected from expanding plantations are $639 million; balanced against $233 million in economic losses by downstream irrigators and stock and domestic water users for a net gain of $406 million, but 345 GL lower mean annual environmental flows. With the policy, smaller gains in upstream economic surplus from trees ($192 million), added to net downstream gains ($138 million) from sale of water, result in gains of $330 million with no reduction in environmental flows. Sustaining the 345 GL flow for a $76 million (406–330) reduction in gains to economic surplus may be seen to cost only $0.22 million/GL; but this is much lower than the market value of the first units of that water to agriculture and forestry.     

Underpayment of Small Producers of Coffee and Cocoa in Sierra Leone

Fieldwork shows that many Sierra Leonean producers do not receive the official producer price for their coffee and cocoa, due to the concentration of buying stations, credit relations, the small quantities offered for sale, and the lack of marketing knowledge of the numerous and unorganized farmers. To the traders underpayment may seem economically justifiable to a certain extent, but to the farmers it means poverty and debt. A new village marketing centre project aims at remedying this situation and has already led to higher prices. Although no longer allowed to take their "just" share from the producers, traders are still willing to deal with the new centres.     

Malaria incidence and agricultural efficiency in Uganda

The cost of accessing healthcare can be a major determinant of disease prevalence, which in turn has short‐ and long‐term welfare implications on poor households. In response, governments in developing countries often resort to subsidizing the cost of drugs, which, while perhaps easier to administer, may not always be the most effective way of addressing healthcare cost. In this regard, we analyze the impact of different types of household level health expenses on disease incidence and agricultural production efficiency. We use data from the 2006 Uganda National Household Survey, which covered approximately 7,400 households. The results suggest that a 10% increase in consultation, medicine, and hospitalization expenses would reduce malaria incidence respectively by 35.6%, 20.5%, and 21.3 %, which translates into a 1.1%, 0.6%, and 0.6 % decrease in agricultural inefficiency, respectively. The results indicate that helping poor households meet expenses for consultation through subsidies or eliminating consultation fees has a larger impact on malaria incidence and agricultural productivity among poor rural households than subsidizing the cost of medical drugs, the most common avenue chosen by developing country governments in the fight against the disease.