要素市场扭曲对农业全要素生产率空间影响效应分解研究

目的 通过对要素市场扭曲下的农业全要素生产率的系统分析,以期为提升农业全要素生产率以及要素市场改革进程中的中国农业可持续发展提供参考。方法 文章基于资本、劳动力、土地等要素市场严重扭曲的事实,利用1997—2018年中国28个省（ 市、自治区）面板数据,通过构建空间计量模型检验要素市场扭曲对农业全要素生产率的空间影响及其溢出效应。结果 中国资本市场、劳动力市场、土地等要素市场扭曲度比较高,同时呈现显著地区差异;中国农业全要素生产率增长以技术进步驱动为主,大多数省份的技术效率不高,同时呈现出东部地区高于中西部地区的区域不平衡特点;要素市场扭曲对农业全要素生产率的影响为负,资本市场、劳动力市场、土地等要素市场扭曲在一定程度上阻碍农业全要素生产率的提升;要素市场扭曲对全要素生产率具有一定的空间溢出效应,也在一定程度抑制了全要素生产率增长。结论 考虑要素市场扭曲对农业全要素生产率影响的空间分析,更能客观反映当前不断深化的农业农村改革发展所引发的地区差距,应充分重视要素市场扭曲对农业全要素生产率的空间溢出效应,通过要素市场化改革,持续加大涉农政策调整,不断加大对农业农村生产经营的金融资源投入,逐步实现农业全要素生产率的全面提升。     

农村劳动力转移对林业全要素生产率的影响分析——基于长江经济带11省（市）的实证

劳动力转移是改善资源配置效率的重要路径,而长江经济带为国家开放开发战略新区域,研究其劳动力转移对林业全要素生产率的作用机理、对资源优化配置和林业持续发展具有重要意义。文章基于省级面板数据对2007-2019年长江经济带农村劳动力转移进行统计分析,并通过DEA-Malmquist指数法对林业全要素生产率进行测算,在此基础上,通过随机效应模型就长江经济带农村劳动力转移对林业全要素生产率的区域性和全域范围影响机制进行计量检验分析。结果表明:(1)长江经济带林业全要素生产率从2007年的0.982上升至2019年的1.046,研究区间内指数波动较大,且伴随时间变迁呈现明显区域性特征;(2)长江经济带农村劳动力转移速度在2014-2015年期间达到顶峰18.46,后期整体放缓,加速度呈现周期性波动,农村劳动力转移仍具潜力;(3)长江经济带东部地区劳动力转移有利于促进林业全要素生产率提升,表现为显著正效应,系数为0.4086,西部地区劳动力转移抑制了林业全要素生产率提升,表现为显著负效应,系数为-0.0351,中部地区影响并不明显;(4)从全域范围看,长江经济带农村劳动力转移促进了林业全要素生产率的提升,表现为显著正效应,系数为0.0469,说明产业结构升级、机械化水平和人力资本等要素对林业全要素生产率具有促进作用。研究认为:(1)应鼓励和支持农村劳动力转移,但需注意劳动力转移时空规律特性,发挥好劳动力转移配置效应;(2)劳动力转移推动产业结构调整,加大林业科技投入和人力资本投入;(3)发挥区域禀赋优势,优化资源配置,促进长江经济带林业和谐有序可持续发展。     

中国城市土地供给错配：特征事实及对 全要素生产率的影响效应

研究目的：探究城市土地供给错配的典型特征,明晰城市土地供给错配对全要素生产率的影响,为提升土地配置效率和全要素生产率提供经验证据。研究方法：从土地供给过度与供给不足视角解析城市土地错配对全要素生产率的影响机制,通过空间一般均衡模型构建城市土地供给错配指数,利用面板计量模型和中介效应模型进行实证分析及中介效应检验。研究结果：（1）中国城市土地供给错配表现出明显的差异性：不同地区、城市规模、人口流动方向分别呈现出“东少西多”“阶梯递减”“逆向配置”特征。（2）城市土地供给错配对全要素生产率产生负向影响,影响效应在不同类型城市存在异质性,城市土地供给过度对全要素生产率的负向作用强于土地供给不足。（3）城市土地供给过度通过创新创业发展和产业结构优化双重路径显著抑制了城市全要素生产率,土地供给不足主要通过产业结构优化对城市效率产生显著的负向影响。研究结论：应警惕土地配置过度的“经济效率”陷阱,强化建设用地指标分配的人地挂钩机制,因城施策提升土地资源配置效率。     

农户兼业化对农业全要素生产率的影响机理与效应研究——基于生产要素投入变化的视角

从狭义的农户兼业化出发,基于生产要素投入变化的视角,系统归纳了农户兼业化对农业全要素生产率的影响机理,在此基础上采用DEA-Tobit两阶段法构建面板Tobit模型,就农户兼业化对农业全要素生产率影响的直接效应、中介效应和总效应进行了实证检验。研究结果表明:农户兼业化不仅会直接对农业全要素生产率产生影响,而且还会通过土地中介效应间接对农业全要素生产率产生影响。从影响效果看,农户兼业化对农业全要素生产率影响的总效应和直接效应显著为负,土地中介效应和资本中介效应为正,但资本中介效应并不显著,农户兼业化对农业全要素生产率的间接影响主要通过土地中介效应表现出来。     

要素配置扭曲对我国海洋渔业全要素生产率影响研究

论文通过收集整理我国沿海11个省份海洋渔业投入要素的相关数据,建立要素配置扭曲测度模型,实证分析了我国沿海各省份海洋渔业要素配置扭曲程度及其对海洋渔业全要素生产率(TFP)的影响.结果表明:我国沿海1 1个省份海洋渔业要素投入均存在不同程度的配置扭曲现象,降低了产业全要素生产率,严重影响了区域海洋渔业经济的发展,消除要素配置扭曲能够有效提高沿海各省份海洋渔业全要素生产率和海洋渔业总产值.     

南方集体林区林业发展驱动机制及技术效率影响因素分析

解决林业效率低下等问题,亟须推动林业产业向全要素生产率支撑型模式转变。林业发展依靠投入要素驱动还是技术效率等其他因素驱动?文章基于随机前沿模型对南方集体林区林业全要素生产率进行测算分解,深入分析林业技术效率相关影响因素,通过索洛余值法测算了南方集体林区各因素对林业产业的贡献率,深入探索林业发展驱动机制。结果表明:(1)南方集体林区资本和劳动力产出弹性系数均值分别为0.187和-0.480,研究区间资本要素贡献不断减少,劳动力要素贡献相对低下;资本和劳动力贡献率从研究初期占主导地位到2019年均为负值,而索洛余值为0.395,林业发展逐步通过技术进步和技术效率驱动。(2)南方集体林区林业技术效率整体水平低下(0.544),技术效率增长率(6.60%)略高于全国水平(5.95%)。地区经济发展水平、劳动力转移、乡镇林业工作站向量对南方集体林区林业技术效率具有显著正向作用,产业结构调整和年降水量向量产生显著负向影响。(3)南方集体林区林业全要素生产率(1.644)高于全国水平(1.533),林业技术进步、技术效率对林业全要素生产率的影响,呈现东、中、西部区域差异。文章提出建议:调整林业投入导向型机制,加大技术投入,优化资源配置,改善林业技术效率,注重林业区域发展差异。     

新疆棉花全要素生产率测算研究——基于剔除目标价格补贴政策影响的三阶段DEA-Malmquist模型

文章以新疆28个县市为研究对象,运用三阶段DEA-Malmquist模型,测算并比较2015-2017年剔除目标价格补贴政策前后棉花全要素生产率,在此基础上分析南疆、北疆的区域差异。结果表明:(1)目标价格补贴对新疆棉花全要素生产率整体存在负向影响,目标价格政策对机械投入、物质投入的影响显著为负,对土地投入影响显著为正。(2)调整后的棉花全要素生产率呈增加的态势。(3)全要素生产率的增长主要来源于技术进步和规模效率递减。(4)南疆的全要素生产率高于北疆。(5)2015-2017年各县市全要素生产率差距不大,但变动较为明显。根据目标价格补贴金额过高、南北疆棉花产业发展不平衡等问题,提出推动棉花目标价格改革、加快土地流转、增加科技投入和政策向北疆倾斜等意见建议。     

气候变化、科技存量与农业生产率增长

本文在对1986~2012年中国各省份农业全要素生产率及农业科技存量进行估算的基础上,探讨了农业全要素生产率增长与农业科技存量的时间演变,并利用FGLS方法对实证模型进行估计,进而系统考察了气候变化及农业科技存量对农业全要素生产率增长的影响。研究结果表明:中国农业全要素生产率呈现明显的波动性增长趋势,主要靠农业技术进步驱动,而农业技术效率起着阻碍作用;新世纪以来农业科研投入增速明显加快,表现出明显的空间地域差异,并且该差异呈扩大趋势;农业科研投入对农业全要素生产率增长的促进作用十分显著,而年降水量对农业全要素生产率增长的影响并不显著。从空间区域来看,华东地区和西南地区气温升高对农业全要素生产率增长具有负向影响,而东北、华北、西北和华南4个地区气温升高能够提高农业全要素生产率。除华南地区外,华东、华北、西北、西南和东北5个地区降水密度增加对农业全要素生产率增长表现出显著的负向影响。     

四川省农户农业生产全要素生产率增长分解——基于2005～2007年的面板数据分析

本文采用随机前沿生产函数分析方法,利用四川省农户农业生产的微观数据,研究了2005～2007年农户农业生产全要素生产率增长分解,将全要素生产率增长分解为:技术进步、技术效率的变化、规模经济性和资源配置效率4个部分.结果表明:2005～2007年四川省农户农业生产全要素生产率增长率平均为8.51%,对全要素生产率增长的影响主要是技术进步、资源配置效率和规模效率,技术进步是主要的推动力量,平均占103.06%,规模效率占19.23%,技术效率的变化呈缓慢下降趋势,平均占5.41%,资源配置的影响为负,平均占16.88%.因此认为,要提高农户农业生产技术效率水平,需要进一步推广农业新品种和新技术,调整资源配置结构.     

数字经济与全要素生产率--基于资源、技术与效率的中介效应

当前,数字经济已成为我国经济高质量发展的新动能,而经济高质量发展的一个重要体现就是全要素生产率的提高。文章以中国30个省域2013—2019年的面板数据为依据,使用综合指数评价法和随机前沿分析法对数字经济及全要素生产率进行了测度,并采用面板固定效应模型和中介效应模型对数字经济和全要素生产率关系及影响机制进行了研究。结果表明:(1)无论全国整体还是东中西部地区,数字经济对全要素生产率均具有正向作用,且对于中部地区的促进作用明显强于东西部地区。(2)创新能力和生产效率是数字经济促进全要素生产率的两个重要机制性因素,数字经济能够通过对两者的影响间接改变其自身对全要素生产率的促进作用。因此,地方政府应从提高技术水平和生产效率、实现数据共享等方面发展数字经济,以数字经济的高质量发展推动全要素生产率的提升。     

Do housing prices promote total factor productivity? Evidence from spatial panel data models in explaining the mediating role of population density

The issue of what to promote in total factor productivity (TFP) in urban areas has been widely discussed in academia and housing prices and population density are confirmed to be two of the most essential driving factors. However, research into the interaction of housing prices and population density with TFP has been neglected, with no previous studies taking spatial factors into consideration, which may bias the results. From this perspective, using spatial panel data models and employing instrumental variables to solve the endogenous problem, this study examines the impact of housing prices on TFP through the mediating effect of population density for 283 Chinese cities during the period 2000–2013, and confirms that the mediating effect accounts for 18.70 % of the total effect. The results show the positive and significant association of housing prices with TFP and the inverted U-shape of population density. The underlying logic is that housing prices change population density by attracting people with high purchasing power and discouraging those unable to afford housing, whereas increased density helps to promote productivity since the settled inhabitants always have highly developed work skills and are well educated. The influencing mechanism of housing prices on TFP through population density is analyzed, namely the spillover effect. We find that the spillover effect exists in the eastern and central regions, as well as first, second, and third tier cities, while for western regions and fifth tier cities, population mobility and increased in housing prices slows their economic development. There is no evidence of any spillover effect in fourth tier cities. A discussion and suggested policy implications are also provided.     

Foreign Aid: Good for Investment,Bad for Productivity

Abstract

This paper examines the effects of aid on sources of growth: capital accumulation and total factor productivity (TFP) growth; the latter captures the effect on growth after removing the contribution of factor accumulation. Given the role of TFP in explaining cross-country differences in income levels and growth rates, the productivity effect can play a significant role in explaining the impact of aid on growth. Contradictory effects of aid were found: aid boosts investment but adversely affects TFP, suggesting that efficiency losses may undermine the overall effects of aid on growth. It was also found that aid reduces the efficacy of financial institutions in supporting productivity growth, a surprising result that possibly illuminates the nature of aid distribution in receiving countries.     

Exploring the widening food gap: an international perspective

Using data for a long panel of 90 developed and developing countries, this article explores the effects of research and development (R&D) and fixed capital stock on agricultural land productivity over the period 1961–2012. Instruments are used for R&D to deal with feedback effects and measurement errors. The results show very high social returns to investment in R&D and to fixed capital stock, suggesting that increasing investment in these factors are promising ways of arresting the increasing food prices due to increasing demand for animal protein, population growth, desertification, salinization, soil erosion, climate change, and decreasing growth in land productivity.     

基于不同住房属性视角的土地供应规模对房价的影响

研究目的：基于住房消费品和投资品的双重属性视角分析住宅用地供应规模对房地产市场的差异化影响。研究 方法：理论分析、固定效应面板回归模型、门槛回归模型。研究结果：（1）上一年住宅用地供应面积增加 1% 可使当年 住房竣工面积显著增加 0.17%,弱于房地产投资资金对住房竣工面积所产生的 0.25% 的提升作用,该结果一定程度上 验证了住宅用地供应与住房供给之间存在生产函数渠道的影响路径;（2）基于实际房价与租金还原房价的偏离程度测 算,发现不同房地产市场投资热度下,住宅用地供应对房价影响存在双重门槛效应,门槛值分别为 2.05 和 2.92;（3）低 投资热度下,上一年住宅用地供应规模的增加可显著降低当年的房价,而高投资热度下则会起到推高房价的作用。研 究结论：住房作为消费品和投资品,存在不同的价格机制和供求规律。当住房市场以投资品属性为主导时,需求曲线 向上的刚性走势违反了一般的商品需求规律,供给曲线的右移将导致均衡价格越来越高。     

Technical change and irreversible investment under risk

A stochastic dynamic model was constructed to analyze investment decisions of an individual farme under risk in the presence of legibilities, embedded technical change and indivisible capital. An analytical solution was obtained and its local behavior studied by numerical methods. Optimal investment is obtained by regulating the difference between the desired and actual capital stocks between two barriers that define an inaction interval. While the desired capital drifts between the barriers, no action is taken. If the desired capital touches the upper barrier, the farmer invests pushing the average efficiency of the actual capital stock up. This in turn raises the desired capital even higher and contracts the inaction interval. If these effects are strong enough, the farmer will invest again until the potential gains of the technological package are exhausted. If the desired capital falls enough, the farmer disinvests, pushing down the average productivity and expanding the inaction interval. Disinvestment continues until it slops either because the inaction interval becomes so wide that it is no longer optimal to disinvest or because the actual capital stock is so small that it is no longer profitable to produce.     

Supply Management and Productivity Growth in Alberta Dairy

Specification of quota licenses as quasi-fixed inputs in a multi-variate flexible accelerator model of dynamic input adjustment reveals supply management's effect on Alberta dairy investment patterns and, thereby, on total factor productivity growth. Estimates of a dynamic dual model of Alberta dairy, using panel data from 1975–91, show that strong complementarity between cattle and quota licenses results in short-run cattle adjustments that are opposite in direction from the long-run adjustments. A model of total factor productivity growth under dynamic input adjustment shows that the distortions to cattle investment caused by investing in quota licenses adversely affects productivity growth. As a result, there is likely to be a significant understatement of single-period estimates of the cost of supply management in the dairy sector.     

黑龙江国有林区林业产业全要素生产率及其影响因素分析

利用DEA法测量了黑龙江省森工40个林业企业的全要素生产率(Total Factor Productiv-ity,TFP),并利用Panel-Data模型找出其影响因素。实证分析结果表明:2003～2009黑龙江国有林区林业企业全要素生产率总体上呈现下降趋势,其原因可归结为林区技术进步缓慢;规模效率和纯技术效率对全要素生产率有正向作用;技术因素和营林投资比重对森工企业的全要素生产率有正向影响,固定资产投资对其存在负向影响,而劳动投入和天保工程(政策因素)对其影响不显著。为此,提出鼓励林业企业技术创新、优化林业投资结构、加强林业投资体制改革、加快森林生态服务的市场化进程和深化林业管理体制改革等建议。     

Productivity effects of CAP investment support: Evidence from Sweden using matched panel data

This paper studies the effects of investment support from the common agricultural policy on labour and total factor productivity of agricultural firms in Sweden. Detailed firm-level data on 34 300 firms are used to estimate a matched panel model that relates firm productivity to a series of factors reflecting internal and external characteristics. The recently developed Coarsened Exact Matching method is used to estimate matched control groups and handle selection bias. Findings show a positive and significant treatment effect of investment support on firm productivity, but only for small firms. The analysis also reveals that an increase in the size of the support in relation to firm income has a negative and significant impact on productivity for all firms. Differentiating between various types of investment supports indicates heterogeneous treatment effects. The policy instrument can improve its efficiency if targeted to small firms and investments that have a link to public good provision.     

Measuring Real Capital Input in OECD Agriculture

This paper provides a farm sector comparison of levels of capital input for 17 OECD countries. The estimates of capital input are derived by representing capital stock as a weighted sum of past investments. The weights correspond to the relative efficiencies of capital goods of different ages, so that the weighted components of capital stock have the same efficiency. We convert estimates of capital stock into estimates of capital services by means of capital rental prices. Comparisons of levels of capital input among countries require data on relative prices of capital input. We obtain relative price levels for capital input among countries via relative investment goods prices, taking into account the flow of capital input per unit of capital stock in each country.
Cet article se propose de comparer le niveau du capital dans Vagriculture de 17pays de l'OCDE. Les estimations du niveau de capital sont déduites en calculant un stock de capital comme une somme pondérée des investissements passés. Les poids utilisés correspondent a Vefficacite relative des biens capitaux à différents âges, de telle sorte que les différentes composantes du stock du capital ait la même efficacité. Le stock de capital est déduit une estimation des services de capital en utilisant un taux de rentabilité. Cette comparaison des niveaux de capital entre pays nécessite des données sur les prix relatifs du capital. Ces prix dépendent des prix relatifs des biens capitaux mais aussi des flux de service générés dans chaque pays par une unité de capital.