AN ANALYSIS OF THE DECISION TO FILE,THE DUMPING ESTIMATES,AND THE OUTCOME OF ANTIDUMPING PETITIONS

The goal of this article is to identify industries filing successful petitions in good times according to demand, capacity utilization, concentration, and import-penetration ratio under the U.S. antidumping procedures and using U.S. data. Good times means that the domestic industry is facing increasing consumption prior to filing. This article examines: (a) the relation between the dumping estimates and the conditions facing the petitioning industry prior to filing; (b) the relation between the dumping estimates and the outcome of the petitions; and (c) the factors affecting the probability of filing, the dumping estimates, and the probability of success of a petition. The decision to file and the probability of success of petitions are estimated using univariate probit and a bivariate probit model with sample selection. The dumping estimates are analyzed using a Tobit model. The primary metal products and the stone and concrete industries are also analyzed separately. The empirical analysis indicates that the import-penetration ratio, capacity utilization, and the dumping estimates by the Department of Commerce (DOC) are the significant factors in explaining the outcome of the petitions. The import penetration ratio, the concentration level, and the interaction of concentration and capacity utilization are the significant factors in explaining the decision to file. The analysis shows that in case of high-capacity utilization (proxy for high demand), less concentrated industries are more likely to file, but highly concentrated industries are more likely to receive protection. The results also show that the level of concentration of the petitioning industry, import-penetration, and the dumping estimates provided by the petitioning industries explain the dumping margins estimated by the DOC as the basis for the antidumping duty. This suggests that the relief or protection that the petitioning industry receives may not entirely be based on technical standards.     

Corporate Lobbying in Antidumping Cases: Looking into the Continued Dumping and Subsidy Offset Act

Is protection for sale? In this research, we examine the effect of corporate lobbying on the disbursement of proceeds of the recent antidumping petitions under the Continued Dumping and Subsidy Offset Act, the so-called Byrd amendment. With the use of novel U.S. Customs Service data on the disbursements of the antidumping duties to the injured firms, we find that the petitioning firms that spend more on lobbying gain larger proceeds. We conclude that firms that lobby are the ones that get protection, not necessarily the healthy ones.     

Rent seekers in the U.S. international trade commission escape clause investigations

This article addresses the question of the political and economic characteristics of firms that are active in filing escape clause petitions. Filing an escape clause petition is considered to be a part of a political rent seeking strategy of a firm. The sample consists of publicly traded firms in industries in which escape clause petitions were filed 1975–1986. The results of a logit analysis suggest that firms active in the petitioning process tend to be profitable and dependent on the petitioned product. We also find tentative support that these firms are in concentrated industries and have Washington offices. These results raise some questions about the utility of the escape clause in providing aid for those firms that it is intended to help.     

Antidumping and Plant Closure

As an indicator of ‘material injury’ in antidumping petitions, companies often claim plant closings have been caused by unfairly‐traded imports or threaten plant closings if no relief is provided. This paper analyzes a sample of 91 companies involved in US antidumping proceedings in the 2002 to 2005 period to examine the determinants of plant closing activity with particular emphasis on the role of the antidumping process in the timing of plant closing announcements. We find that larger firms and firms in declining sectors are more likely to close plants, and that the prize of Byrd Amendment funds may help keep plants in operation (especially for smaller firms for whom these funds are likely to be more important). However, there does not appear to be a consistent and significant relationship between antidumping petitions and the timing of plant closings.     

美国对华反倾销对中国内向和外向FDI的影响

本文基于分工模式和实证分析探究了美国对华反倾销对中国内向和外向FDI的影响。研究表明：（1）垂直分工FDI在中国建立的下游企业、水平分工FDI在中国建立的投资企业都会放大关中行业贸易逆差,引发美国上升的行业损害抱怨。结果,美国对华反倾销对这些分工FDI在中国的投资意愿产生不利的影响。（2）美国对华反倾销对中国金属制造业、化学工业、特别是纺织业对美出口及其内向FDI产生很不利的影响。2004—2009年中国制造业部门吸收的内向FDI比重出现近20％的：k幅下降,这很好地证实了基于分工模式的理论预测。（3）虽然美国对中国产品反倾销呈增加态势,但是中国企业并没有积极地采取对美直接投资的方式来规避反倾销壁垒,而是选择避税地进行外向FDI。这种对外直接投资格局很难形成中国的产业发展模式。     

Stock market data and trade policy: dumping and the semiconductor industry

This article uses stock market data to examine the effects of cost-based dumping and the subsequent trade agreements between the United States and Japan on U.S. semiconductor firms. Our empirical results show that the initial indication of dumping by Japanese semiconductor firms had a significant negative impact on stock prices of U.S. firms. On the other hand, the subsequent market-sharing trade agreement, under which Japan agreed to prevent the dumping of Japan-manufactured chips in the United States and the United States agreed to suspend the application of antidumping duties, had a positive impact on the stock prices of U.S. semiconductor firms. Our findings support the neoclassical trade theory that the imposition of import relief leads to a wealth transfer to producers.     

Some New Evidence about the Effects of U.S. Antidumping Orders and Their Administrative Reviews on the Prices of Covered Imports

The present article presents evidence from a sample of U.S. antidumping orders that are followed through as many as 15 administrative reviews. The decline in average antidumping duties over the course of successive reviews is entirely the result of firms with higher dumping duties disappearing from the review process (probably ceasing sales in the United States). For given firms surviving to be named in the next review, the antidumping duty actually increases from one review to the next. This article is the first to report direct information about the unit value of covered imports contained in administrative review reports of the United States International Trade Commission. This article is also the first to present information about the large number of firms—more than one-third of those ever assigned a firm-specific duty—that are named in administrative reviews, but not in original antidumping orders.     

国际反倾销立法及其作用

在关贸总协定框架下,经过各成员国多边贸易谈判,已使关税有了大幅度降低,传统的贸易壁垒因而受到很大限制。为达到有效保护本国产业的目的,各国纷纷寻求非关税壁垒,反倾销措施以其特有的单边性、隐蔽性、合法性备受各国青睐。本文在阐述世界各国反倾销立法情况的基础上,就反倾销立法的原因,反倾销立法和反倾销实践的关系以及反倾销法的作用进行了分析。     

Antidumping, signaling and cheap talk

In the United States, there is evidence that domestic non-filing firms do not always support dumping/countervailing duty investigations. Absent other factors, domestic firms have an unambiguous incentive to support petitions filed by other domestic producers. We argue that in cases where the non-complainant firm is not a significant importer or exporter, the most plausible explanation is that non-support acts as a costly signal of private information. Extending the model to allow firms to engage in cheap talk, such signaling can take place even in the absence of an investigation. This result provides an explanation for the puzzling observation that fewer antidumping investigations are filed than one would expect.     

U.S. antidumping administrative reviews

The U.S. currently levies over 250 antidumping duties, and many of these duties fluctuate as a result of administrative reviews. Administrative reviews occur when antidumping duties are recalculated for the purposes of adjustment or revocation. This paper examines how administrative reviews influence U.S. antidumping duties. The paper also analyzes the forces that give rise to administrative reviews as well as the factors that produce changes in antidumping duties.     

How do exporters respond to antidumping investigations?

Using monthly transaction data covering all Chinese exporters over the 2000–2006 period, we investigate how Chinese exporters respond to U.S. antidumping investigations. We find that antidumping investigations cause a substantial decrease in the total export volume at the HS-6 digit product level, and that this trade-dampening effect is due to a significant decrease in the number of exporters, yet a modest decrease in the export volume per surviving exporter. We also find that the bulk of the decrease in the number of exporters is exerted by less productive exporters, by direct exporters as opposed to trade intermediaries, and by single-product direct exporters as opposed to their multi-product counterparts. Combined with the existing studies on the effects that antidumping investigations have on protected firms, our study helps piece together a complete picture of the effects of antidumping investigations.     

美国反倾销贸易效应的实证分析

基于美国1998—2007年对外反倾销案的动态面板数据,应用一阶差分广义矩估计方法(SYS-GMM)考察其关税和反倾销对被诉国出口贸易和贸易份额的影响,结果表明:美国关税和反倾销措施在被诉国和被诉行业中都存在贸易破坏效应和贸易转移效应,其中,对中国反倾销的贸易效应最大;比较关税与反倾销措施对被诉国出口的影响,发现美国实施反倾销措施的贸易破坏效应和贸易转移效应远大于关税,表明反倾销措施已经成为美国取代传统关税控制进口的重要贸易政策。     

Has the Byrd Amendment Affected US Imports?

The Continued Dumping and Subsidy Offset Act (CDSOA), also known as the Byrd Amendment, allows the US government to distribute revenues from antidumping duties to domestic firms alleging harm. Prior to the amendment these revenues were not distributed to firms. In this article, we formally test the hypothesis that the Byrd Amendment effectively provides double protection to US firms to the extent that it further restricts US imports, as argued by the EU and 11 other US trading partners. Using a rich panel of 362 US manufacturing industries for the period 1998 to 2003, we find that whether or not the Byrd Amendment restricted US imports depends crucially on the level of competitiveness in the import‐competing industry. Specifically, we find that the Byrd Amendment served to restrict imports only in industries where competition is relatively weak, while the amendment is associated with an increase in imports in more competitive industries.     

A Note on the Incidence and Possible Cost of “Critical Circumstances” Penalties in U.S. Antidumping Enforcement

This article examines the incidence and possible cost of “Critical Circumstances” penalties in U.S. antidumping enforcement. Critical Circumstances penalties are surprisingly common. Of the 297 foreign firms that were assessed antidumping duties greater than 25% during the period 1980–1995, 89 (or 30%) were also assessed a Critical Circumstances penalty. The volume of imports affected by these Critical Circumstances penalties was approximately $991 million over the 15 year period (or about $66 million per year). The average level of the Critical Circumstances penalties was about 79% of the value of the relevant commerce, assessed for a period of up to 90 days, or as much as $13 million per year. The economic cost to the United States from Critical Circumstances penalties comes largely from the reduction in export levels (increase in prices) that foreign firms may make in the expectation that a Critical Circumstances penalty may be assessed. The article presents evidence that foreign firms have restricted their exports to the United States to avoid or minimize Critical Circumstances penalties, and discusses a simple model that may illustrate how foreign firms react to the possibility of such penalties.     

Strategic Behaviour under European Antidumping Duties

In this paper we develop a dynamic two-period model of imperfect competition to analyse the effects of European antidumping duties on firm behaviour and domestic welfare. Our model is one of the first to complement the European empirical literature on antidumping policy and can usefully be compared with papers dealing with the effects of US antidumping policy. We arrive at three important conclusions: (a) the strategic behaviour of European firms under European antidumping rules may run in the opposite direction compared to the incentives for US firms provided under the US antidumping rules; (b) US antidumping rules perform better than European rules in terms of domestic welfare and in terms of protecting domestic value added and employment; (c) the Strategic Trade Policy argument for protection need not apply for antidumping duties because the level of protection is endogenously determined by the firms involved.     

The economic effects of withdrawn antidumping investigations: is there evidence of collusive settlements?

This paper analyzes the effects of antidumping cases initiated from 1990 to 1997 that ended in withdrawn petitions without a suspension agreement or voluntary restraint agreement. Monthly import data are used to estimate the price and quantity effects of the withdrawn cases. The estimated effects of the petition being withdrawn do not support the accepted wisdom that withdrawn petitions are a signal of collusion. This is an important issue, since out-of-court settlements of unfair trade cases which restrict quantities or increase prices are not only welfare reducing but are also actionable under the antitrust laws; they are not exempt under the Noerr-Pennington doctrine.     

Macroeconomic factors and antidumping filings: evidence from four countries

This paper examines the relationship between antidumping filings and macroeconomic factors. Real exchange rate fluctuations affect the two criteria for dumping in opposite ways, making the overall effect on filings ambiguous in theory. Examining the filing patterns of the four major users of AD law during the 1980-98 period we find that real exchange rates and domestic real GDP growth both have statistically significant impacts on filings. Bilateral filing data indicate that a one-standard deviation real appreciation of the domestic currency increases filings by 33%. We also find one-standard deviation fall in domestic real GDP increases filings by 23%.     

Small Firms as International Players

In this paper, using aggregate data from the U.S Bureau of Economic Analysis, the author explores the strategies small U.S.-based foreign investing firms follow in their international activities. The aggregate study supports the findings of an earlier study of a few small firms with international activities. These firms have a lower-than-expected tendency to form minority-owned affiliates abroad. An analysis of the industries in which these small foreign investing firms operate supports the notion that these firms follow specific strategies uncovered in the small-scale study. Finally, the paper ties the findings to alliance strategies of small firms.     

The First Review of European Union Antidumping Reviews

The literature on antidumping (AD) has documented various aspects of this protectionist tool. However, a peculiar feature of AD has not received much attention: these measures are endogenous to the behaviour of the exporting firms, which can adjust the dumping margin by changing their export price and ask the authority to amend the AD measures accordingly. The objective of this paper is to fill part of this gap in the literature by analysing the AD reviews conducted by the European Union for affirmative petitions initiated in 1980–2009. To this end, a novel data set of all such reviews has been assembled. Summary statistics reveal that more than a third of all petitions concluded with the imposition of AD measures are reviewed at least once before their expiration, and most reviews lead to lower AD duties (although, almost 20 per cent of the firms investigated through interim reviews see their duties increase). There are significant differences in the outcome of the reviews depending on the party requesting them (i.e. reviews lodged by European producers are less likely to lead to lower duties). These conclusions are confirmed by the econometric analysis, which also shows that Chinese firms see their duties reduced significantly less than those of firms from other countries.     

1980-2003年美国反倾销实务定量分析

实务分析是研究美国反倾销行为的一个重要方面。文章从美国反倾销实务入手,对1980-2003年美国的反倾销申诉和反倾销裁决结果进行了数量和价值的定量分析,发展和补充了关于美国反倾销行为的传统观点,从而更全面合理地解读了美国的反倾销行为。