用产品生命周期进行财务管理

本文扩展了产品生命周期模型，提出用产品生命周期进行财务管理的系统模型。在产品生命周期的每一阶段，应采取不同的财务策略。同时。应保持足够的战略柔性，适时修正已经制定的财务战略以最大化企业的利益和股东的利益。财务战略的制定和执行要从公司作为一个整体的角度来进行，应与公司的其它职能部门进行必要的协调以实现公司的目标。     

基于柔性理念的新产品研发资金投入与时间控制研究

在产品生命周期的基础上,对一个产品的创意酝酿到最终退出市场进行全面分析,建立了非线性规划模型,从而对其整个生命过程的资金投入与时间进行有效控制。然后,建立了基于柔性理念的多目标规划模型,并用人-机会话及滚动式方法对其求解。结果旨在为企业寻找最优决策方案,进而最大限度地实现研发价值。     

The impact of misrepresentative data patterns on sales forecasting accuracy

The development of a sales forecasting system involves three major steps. The first step is to obtain prior sales data and to identify the model that will best forecast the patterns that exist in the data. The second step is to estimate parameter values for the selected model by analyzing the prior sales data. The third step is to test the accuracy of the model by use of the prior sales data. Each of the steps requires use of prior data. In all three steps, there is a basic assumption that the past data represent some underlying process that can be identified and modeled. In some cases the past data may not represent the underlying process, and the forecasting process is seriously distorted. Some frequent causes of distorted data are 1) accounting methods that are used to record or collect the data, 2) marketing tactics such as promotions which that create outliers, 3) limits on production capacity that cause stockouts. This paper looks at events and actions that may distort data used for sales forecasting and at the resulting impact the events and actions may have on forecasting accuracy.     

The power and politics of sales forecasting: Uncertainty absorption and the power of the Marketing Department

Recent concerns have focused on the adequacy of the power of Marketing Departments to implement the marketing concept and to put into effect marketing plans and strategies. The article analyzes the marketing function as an information processing activity, where one significant element of information processing is sales forecasting as an uncertainty absorption process. The major hypothesis is that the power of the Marketing Department can be partially explained by its control of sales forecasting, both directly but also indirectly through a set of strategic contingencies which make marketplace uncertainty critical to the firm. The argument is supported by empirical data from a study of manufacturing firms in the United Kingdom, and leads to the identification of a number of implications for managers and researchers.     

Market forecasting with binomial plotting graph papers

A simple method of analyzing sales data is presented utilizing binomial plotting graph papers. The procedures for assembling the data, plotting the results and interpreting the developed information are presented in three examples. These examples demonstrate the results of a trial sales period, a forecast of national sales from the trial period, and a forecast for an expanded model line from a two model line. A technical appendix is included describing the binomial distribution and demonstrating its applicability to sales data and market forecasting.     

An empirical investigation of the appropriateness of the product life cycle to municipal library services

A set of longitudinal data for each of 25 major U.S. cities was extracted from the U.S. Bureau of the Census publicationCity Government Finances. This was used to compute municipal libraries' market share of total city expenditures. The data were graphed and exhibited the characteristics of a product life cycle curve. The findings of the study suggest that the product life cycle concept can be usefully applied to non-profit public sector organizations. Specifically the findings indicate that library administrators should give serious attention to market stretching or recognize that decline in their market share in the next few years appears likely. It is also suggested that recognition of the product life cycle concept has implications for managerial strategy and skills in the library service, particularly in the field of personnel selection.     

绿色设计和生命周期分析方法在农业生态系统管理中的应用

论述了绿色设计和生命周期分析概念、方法及其在农业转型中的意义。研究认为 ,绿色设计以 3R (节约、循环和再利用 )为特征 ,是集社会、文化、环境、资源等为一体的复合性设计 ;LCA是分析产品从“从摇篮至坟墓”的全过程监督管理方法 ,建立科学评价指标体系和综合评判方法 ,确定农业生态系统边界和农产品生命周期目录 ,是农产品LCA核心技术。     

关于城市商圈时空演进若干问题的研究

传统商圈理论对于研究商业企业，特别是研究事售商业企业销售辐射范围是一种有效的工具。随着社会主义市场经济的发展，特别走随着城市化的推进和区域经济的新发展，商圈的概惫不应只是服务于单个零售企业．而应试看成一定空间商业企业的集粜，随着集聚产生了商圈内和商圈间的相互竞争，并对商圈时间动态性和空闻动态性产生了深刺影响。商圈不但随着经济周期、季节和生命周期等时间因素发生变化，而且随着各种外部和内部空间因素发生动态变化。     

Decision support oriented sales forecasting methods

Forecast accuracy is not always a good criterion by which to evaluate alternative sales forecasting methods. Accurate forecasts do not always lead to desirable management policies. The paper gives two examples of this in practice, one in which short term sales forecasts are used for operational planning purposes, and the other in which long term sales forecasts are used for strategic company planning. In each case the most accurate forecasts do not give the best plans and alternative criteria to accuracy are proposed and shown to perform better. Conclusions are drawn regarding evaluation criteria for alternative sales forecasting methods within a planning context and also regarding the position of the forecasting function within an organisation.     

Using the calendar to improve sales forecasts

Monthly sales data for products whose sales fluctuate regularly according to the day of the week may be subject to a source of variation which makes model fitting and forecasting more difficult. This problem is described and illustrated within the context of the ARIMA class of univariate models. Procedures to recognize and account for the problem are presented, and improvements in the ability to forecast future sales are noted in the sample series examined.     

职业教育的产品策略

职业院校几乎年年上演＂就业热招生冷＂,所以,有必要借鉴市场营销的相关理论,促进职业教育发展。职业教育向社会提供的是＂教育产品＂,根据市场营销中的产品策略,可以准确把握职业教育产品的整体概念,科学统筹职业教育的产品组合,面对产品生命周期变化适时推出新专业。     

Explaining the variation in short-term sales response to retail price promotions

This study focuses on the short-term sales response to price promotions in retail grocery stores and attempts to explain its variation using frequency of price promotions and the consecutive scheduling of price promotions. Retail managers’ expectations and tenets from behavioral theories provide the basis for the hypotheses that the frequency of price promotions and consecutive scheduling of price promotions affect short-term response to price promotions. The hypotheses are tested on three frequently purchased product categories, using store-level data from retail chains in three major markets. The analysis is validated with additional data on the same product categories and markets. A variety of managerial implications are drawn from the results and suggestions for future research are offered. He has been recognized with numerous teaching and research excellence awards. Dr. Kumar has published numerous articles in many scholarly journals in marketing and forecasting. He has coauthored a text titledMarketing Research and is currently working on two other textbooks. He is on the editorial review board of many journals. Dr. Kumar has lectured on marketing-related topics in various universities worldwide. His research interests include developing forecasting models, international marketing strategy and international marketing research issues, models for sales promotions, and new methodologies for product positioning and market segmentation. Dr. Kumar received his doctoral degree from the University of Texas at Austin. He has published articles about retailing and marketing strategy in scholarly journals such as theJournal of Retailing, International Journal of Research in Marketing, andJournal of Business Ethics. His current research interest focuses on models for sales promotions and marketing strategy. Dr. Pereira received his doctoral degree from the University of Houston.     

中国情境下产品众筹的商业模式研究

在中国的众筹实践中,产品众筹是众筹的主要表现形式,但在实际操作中存在众筹成功率低、融资额度较少、缺乏持续性等问题。造成这些问题的主要原因,在于缺乏完整的产品众筹商业模式的研究。在产品众筹相关研究和商业模式理论的基础上,归纳出产品众筹商业模式的一般结构,并以小牛电动车的典型成功案例对该模型进行了验证,而后将产品众筹的商业模式拓展到了不同生命周期的企业,并根据不同时期企业的特征对模型进行了修正。研究发现,产品众筹不仅适合新创企业,还可以应用于成长型企业和成熟期企业之中。     

基于红色旅游价值链的理论分析

将价值链管理理念引入红色旅游产品开发,识别基本价值贡献要素并综合辅助要素进行系统分析,指出提升旅游综合效益的关键问题,引导实施科学的流程管理．以期延长产品生命周期,走出一条使红色旅游多效收益、有序升级的科学发展道路。     

京津冀R&D资源与创新活动关系比较分析

通过构建京津冀R&D资源—创新活动—创新绩效的概念模型,采用协整检验和格兰杰因果关系分析等经济计量方法,对京津冀R&D资源与创新活动的关系、创新与经济绩效的关系进行了实证研究。结果表明:河北省政府资金和企业资金分别与专利和新产品销售收入存在长期稳定关系;天津市政府资金和企业资金对新产品销售收入存在长期稳定关系;北京市各变量之间关系不明显。     

Emerging issues in sales forecasting and decision support systems

There are two distinct groups of emerging issues in the area of sales forecasting and decision support systems: methodological issues and implementational issues. This paper discusses each of them. The discussion of implementational issues includes some results of a survey of forecasting practice. The paper serves as a preface to the special section on sales forecasting and decision support systems and introduces the papers included in the special section.     

长沙市房地产市场需求预测模型研究

构建我国房地产市场需求预测模型,以长沙市房地产市场需求作为研究对象对其影响因素进行实证研究,运用主成分分析法对影响因素进行分类,筛选出影响房地产市场需求的最具代表性的因素为常住人口、城乡居民储蓄余额和GDP总量,并据此预测2012-2016年的长沙市房地产市场需求,结果显示：2012-2014年长沙市新建商品房销售面积将从l895.73万平方米逐年小幅下跌至1720.38万平方米,2015年市场复苏并进入下一轮周期性波动。     

需求增长型企业销量预测方法--以空调生产企业为例

基于基本时间序列分解法、回归分析法和定性预测法,根据“误差决定权重”的指导原则对各种单一预测方法进行权重分配,提出了适用于需求增长型空调生产企业销量综合性预测方法的基本思路,结合国内某空调生产企业实际调研数据给出了计算实例。     

The integration of microcomputers in marketing research and decision making

This paper focuses on the integrative and pervasive use of microcomputers in marketing research and managerial decision making. The marketing research process is conceptualized as consisting of six phases. At each phase, microcomputer applications and illustrative software are identified as implications for the practice of marketing research discussed. Next the paper illustrates the use of microcomputers in selected application areas such as market segmentation, sales forecasting, new product development, pricing and decision support and expert systems. Guidelines for the selection of microcomputer software in specific situations are provided. The paper concludes with some observations on the future applications of microcomputers in marketing research and decision making.     

产业生命周期理论的发展评述

产业生命周期理论起源于产品生命周期理论,它是指整个产业从诞生到衰退的演进过程中,产业内厂商数目、市场结构及产业创新动态变化的理论,属于现代产业组织学的重要分支之一。西方对其研究起始于产品生命周期,经过一批学者们的研究,相继发展了A—U模型、G—K模型和K-G模型,使得该理论趋于成熟。后来的研究对以上模型进行了深化和拓展,重点对产业周期中企业规模的演化、企业行为特征以及与创新的关系等进行了研究,将该理论的研究推向微观,更加深入和具体。文章梳理了该理论演化的基础,对现有研究成果进行了简要评述,并指出未来可能的研究方向与重点,为我国进行相关研究的学者们提供了思路和方向。