Agricultural price policy in Tanzania

This paper examines agricultural price policy implementation and its strategic impact in Tanzania over the period 1969–1980. Trends in producer prices and the rural—urban terms of trade are analysed by constructing weighted price and income indices for major categories of crops marketed through official channels. The results indicate a substantial deterioration of real prices and incomes from crop sales during the 1970s. When taken in conjunction with a concomitant deterioration in the efficiency of agricultural marketing the analysis suggests that price policy has had a major adverse impact both on peasant living standards and on the economic performance of Tanzania since the mid-1960s.     

大气污染防治增加了企业税负吗

《京津冀及周边地区2017年大气污染防治工作方案》将"2+26"城市确定为京津冀大气污染传输通道城市进行联合防治，基于此，文章以2013-2019年"2+26"城市所在省市的A股上市公司为研究对象，运用双重差分法检验"2+26"城市大气污染联合防治行动对企业税负的影响。研究结果表明，对"2+26"城市而言，大气污染联合防治行动使得企业税负显著增加。区分企业所在城市规模、是否属于污染密集型行业、企业所有制性质的异质性分析发现，大气污染联合防治行动对非污染密集型行业企业、国有企业以及位于小规模城市的企业税负影响更大。     

Measuring Green Productivity Growth for China's Manufacturing Sectors: 1991–2000*

Over the past two decades, China has sustained rapid economic growth of 8–10 percent, part of which is attributed to the positive total factor productivity (TFP) growth. However, this extraordinary economic performance has been accompanied by severe environmental pollution and associated health damage. The conventional TFP method is biased in interpreting the progress of technology change because it does not consider non‐marketable residues, such as environmental pollution, and, hence, efficiency improvements in terms of pollution abatement technology and environmentally friendly management are ignored. This bias might direct our attention to less efficient use of environmental friendly abatement technologies or send wrong signals to policy‐makers. To address this issue, the present paper applies a modified welfare‐based green TFP approach, treating environmental damage as non‐desirable (negative) residual output. Therefore, environmental efficiency is taken into account to accurately interpret technological progress from a social welfare point of view. Based on a national time‐series input–output table, historical capital and labor input data for China and sectoral level air pollution emission data from 1991 to 2000, the empirical results suggest that with increasingly stringent environmental regulations, many pollution intensive sectors, such as electricity, primary metal and chemical industries, improved their environmental efficiency in the late 1990s. However, because of the weak environmental regulations in construction and transportation, and in sectors primarily composed of small private or township and village industrial enterprises, firms within these industries contributed to increasing environmental degradation.     

Explaining the spread of residential air conditioning, 1955–1980

In 1955 fewer than 2% of the nation’s residences had air conditioning; by 1980 over half were air conditioned, and over a quarter had central air. This paper attempts to explain the growth and the geographic differences in the prevalence of residential air conditioning from the mid fifties to 1980. Census data and data on climate and relevant prices are combined to estimate a model that focuses on the role of economic factors, that is, geographic differences and changes over time in incomes and prices, in affecting the pattern of diffusion of residential air conditioning.     

环境质量与中国城市发展沉浮:人力资本视角的解释

环境质量日益成为影响中国城市品质和高质量发展的重要因素。本文采用中国人口普查、夜间灯光和基于卫星反演的大气污染等数据,分析空气污染引致人力资本选择性流动,进而带来的城市长期经济增长效应。结果发现,空气污染并没有显著影响城市人口规模变化,但是降低了城市经济增速和增长质量。以PM_2.5和SO₂为代表的空气污染导致城市大学及以上学历人口显著流出,进而带来城市人均夜间灯光亮度值和GDP增长率的下降。本文进一步基于“两控区”政策,反向论证了环境规制政策能够带来空气质量改善,从而减缓高人力资本的流出,促进经济增长。本文从经验上分析了环境规制、环境质量、经济增长之间的关系,也为中国城市兴衰格局提供了一个基于环境视角的解释。     

Reducing the Number of Pesticide- Related Illnesses: The Impact on Household Incomes in Indonesia

The increasing number of human health problems caused by the use of pesticides serves as a warning to countries to develop preventive programs Developing countries, however, are concerned about the effect of such programs on household incomes. With Indonesia as a case study, this paper presents a procedure to broaden a Social Accounting Matrix to include the impact of agricultural pesticide use on human health This approach utilises the Constrained Fixed Price Multiplier method to analyse the effect, on the household incomes of different socio-economic classes, of government programs that are designed to reduce human pesticide-related illnesses The results show that reducing such illnesses through the Safe Use of Pesticides program or the Integrated Pest Management program induces a more equal income distribution.     

A South African national economic and environmental policyframework

Most contemporary economic theories upon which conventional national accounting is based regard man‐made assets as productive capital to be depreciated against the value of production. Such production, without replenishment or renewal of the asset or capital stock, is not sustainable. Natural resource assets, however, are not valued in the same way. There is no accounting mechanism to reflect the decrease in potential future pro duction as the resource diminishes or deteriorates. In 1993, the United Nations adopted its guidelines for a ‘System of Integrated Environmental and Economic Accounting’ (SEEA), which allows for the adjustment of the System of National Accounts (SNA) for natural asset stripping and degradation, providing a format for national accounting which assesses the viability and sustainability of economic growth. The concept of an SEEA for South Africa was pursued in 1994 as a pilot study. The framework to be devel oped was termed the South African National Economic Environmental Planning (SANEEP) model. The framework can be used to predict the environmental impact, in terms of natural resource use and degradation, of economic growth, both nationally and at the sectoral level. In addition, it can be used to test the sectoral economic impact, and thus the desirability of certain types of environmental economic instruments such as pol lution taxes, or the imposition of royalties on mineral extraction. Hence, the SANEEP framework has the potential to become a broad‐based, integrated environmental and economic planning tool. This article describes the SANEEP model, its information requirements and applications.     

FDI竞争、环境规制与污染避难所——对中国式分权的反思

基于1994~2006年省级面板数据,本文考察了FDI竞争与环境规制间的关系。主要结论是:中国的环境规制实际上对FDI的流入产生了显著的抑制效应,在此背景下,地方政府有动机以放松环境管制为手段来吸引更多的FDI流入,这导致中国成为跨国污染企业的"污染避难所";地方政府间的这种"竞争到底"行为根源于中国特有的分权模式,这提醒我们需要重新审视中国式分权对地方政府治理结构的影响。     

The impacts of environmental pollution and brain drain on income inequality

This paper establishes a two-sector general equilibrium model of a small open economy to examine the impact of environmental pollution on income inequality via brain drain. The results of the equilibrium modelling show that environmental pollution in the source country can widen the income gap between skilled and unskilled workers and that brain drain caused by environmental pollution will amplify this effect; furthermore, improving the environmental quality in the recipient country will widen the skilled-unskilled income gap in the source country. Our empirical results show that deteriorating the environmental quality in the source country increases income inequality and that brain drain caused by environmental quality will amplify the effect. Our sample is divided into four sub-samples: stage of national development, level of national income, status of environmental pollution and situation of brain drain. We find that environmental pollution has different effects on income inequality via brain drain in these sub-samples. Comparing the heterogeneous components of environmental quality, we find that brain drain caused by diminished ecosystem vitality and by air quality affecting human health will widen income inequality but that other factors related to environmental quality have no significant impacts on the effect of brain drain on income inequality. The results of a robustness test support these conclusions.     

隐性经济视角下环境规制对中国城市环境污染的影响——基于地级市经验证据的分析

在已有关于环境规制强度对环境污染的影响研究中,鲜有考虑隐性经济这一重要因素,而隐性经济本身不仅会带来环境污染,也会削弱环境规制的实际绩效。因此,纳入隐性经济这一重要因素,从隐性经济的视角出发,以中国245个地级市为研究对象,分别采用多指标多原因法和熵值法测算中国2007—2017年245个地级市的隐性经济规模和环境规制强度综合指数,运用静态面板数据模型就环境规制强度在隐性经济视角下对环境污染的影响进行实证检验。实证结果显示,环境规制强度会对环境污染产生显著的负向效应,而环境规制强度和隐性经济规模的交互项会对环境污染产生显著的正向效应,环境规制对环境污染的总效应则取决于直接的负向效应和间接的正向效应的净效应。隐性经济会对环境污染产生显著的正向影响,表明隐性经济规模扩大会进一步恶化环境污染状况。     

Dairy farming,cooperatives and livelihoods: lessons learned from six indian villages

India's dairy sector has emerged as the world's largest dairy producer and has enabled 70 million farmers to generate income through its rapid growth. This success is linked to broad national policy support through the Operation Flood program and the emergence of an inclusive model of cooperatives. However, the informal sector is still the marketing channel most used by dairy producers, and with the liberalization of the dairy sector, the cooperative model is also facing competition from the private sector. By surveying 244 dairy farmers in two major but heterogeneous states in India, this paper examines the inclusiveness of the sector and the impact of dairy cooperative membership on farmers’ income and livelihood. The originality of the paper concerns its systematic perspective on households’ assets and activities. The results indicate that cooperative membership is associated with caste membership and farmers collection centers. Better incomes are associated with membership, particularly among farmers with less land and among smallholders, who are more dependent on their dairy income to lift themselves out of poverty.     

数字化与企业绿色创新表现——基于增量与提质的双重效应识别

数字化赋予了国民经济与微观企业转型升级的动能。文章在对上市公司进行文本挖掘的基础上,综合MD&A部分数字化词频占比和无形资产数据等多个数据集以提高企业数字化指标的刻画质量,实证考察了其对企业绿色创新表现的影响。研究发现,数字化对企业绿色创新表现具有"增量提质"的双重效应,并且该结论在创新性地采用清朝城墙数据作为历史工具变量和国家级大数据试验区建设作为准自然实验等一系列稳健性检验后仍然显著成立。异质性分析表明,这一促进效应在政府环保补助较高和内部管控成本较低的企业、非重污染行业企业中更为明显;而当地环境治理和知识产权保护则为该过程的实现提供了支撑。机制分析表明,数字化作用于企业绿色创新的路径依赖于其缓解了(环境)信息约束问题,促使企业自主参与环境治理,并有效提升企业商业信用。文章研究不仅为理解数字技术发展对企业绿色创新表现的影响机理提供了微观实证依据,也为未来实现数字化与"双碳"目标的"共赢"提供了重要启示。     

Have Air Pollutant Emissions Converged Among U.S. Regions? Evidence from Unit Root Tests

Previous studies of income distribution have found evidence indicating that incomes across U.S. regions have converged, supporting the prediction of the neoclassical growth model. A potential shortcoming in these studies is that only one measure of well-being is considered—a measure of wealth linked to incomes or production. This paper examines whether income convergence was accompanied by air pollutant emission convergence. Results from unit root tests provide some evidence that indicators of environmental quality have converged across U.S. regions during the 1929-1994 period.     

基于RIMER的航天项目风险评估方法

航天项目对国家的经济以及国防安全均有着重大的影响,是一类较为特殊的高风险项目。针对这一问题提出一种基于RIMER的航天项目风险评估方法。该方法通过专家意见构造信度规则库,然后通过RIMER方法得到航天项目的风险评价。最后以某航天项目的风险评估作为实例分析,分析结果验证了本文提出方法的有效性。     

Determinants of pollution: what do we really know?

The recent literature proposes many variables as significant determinants of pollution. This paper gives an overview of this literature and asks which of these factors have an empirically robust impact on water and air pollution. We apply Extreme Bound Analysis (EBA) on a panel of up to 120 countries covering the period 1960–2001. We find supportive evidence of the existence of the environmental Kuznets curve for water pollution. Furthermore, mainly variables capturing the economic structure of a country affect air and water pollution.     

政府环境审计能够促进企业绿色创新吗

手工整理国家审计署层面的政府环境审计数据,以 2007—2019 年沪深 A 股上市公司为研究对象,使用多期双重差分法探讨了政府环境审计对企业绿色创新的影响。研究发现,政府环境审计能够显著促进企业绿色创新,且这一促进作用在媒体监督较强时更显著。分析影响机制发现,政府环境审计主要通过环境规制机制和环保补贴机制来促进企业绿色创新,其中环境规制机制表现为环境处罚力度提高和环境税收水平提升,环保补贴机制表现为环保补贴力度提高。检验经济后果发现,政府环境审计视角下的企业绿色创新不仅能够提高其环境绩效,表现出环境有效性,更能够提高其经济绩效和经济效率,表现出经济有效性。研究结论丰富了政府环境审计的有效性研究和企业绿色创新的制度因素研究,为审计部门完善政府环境审计制度以推进绿色创新经济发展提供了决策参考。     

The Impact of Increased School Enrollment on Economic Growth in Tanzania

Abstract: Two different positions prevail in the recent discussion on the impact of education on economic growth: those who support a positive correlation between schooling and economic growth rates and those who claim that the impact of schooling on growth has been overstated. What is intriguing about this discussion is that both positions are based on theory and the results from empirical studies. We examine the long‐term effects of increased school enrollment (and effective attendance) on economic growth in Tanzania using a dynamic computable general equilibrium (DCGE) model. We find that an increase in human capital formation in the long run leads only to a moderate increase of economic growth rates but to a substantial improvement of factor incomes to low‐education households, while overall income effects are Pareto efficient.     

Tracing the regional dual value chains: Measurement on the production position and evidence from China

When there is insufficient internal and external impetus for developing countries’ economy, building a domestic and international dual circulation is conducive to promoting the regional industrial growth. On the basis of regional embedded international input-output tables, this paper extends the measurement framework of production position and proposes the concept of the dual value chain, which measure production position that unifies the national and global value chains from forward and backward industrial linkages. We decompose the national and global value chains into three categories and investigate the production position characteristics of China with a multi-dimensional perspective. Consistent evidence shows that a feasible path of technological progress in optimizing the production in value chains in which technological progress plays a crucial role on the pure national value chain across the high-tech manufacturing sector, the eastern and central regions. Their posterior probabilities are 0.96, 0.21and 0.86, respectively. Moreover, the impact on the dual production is nonnegligible that the posterior probability of technological progress on the eastern and central regions is 0.40 and 0.92. In addition, the impact of the Chinese economic stimulus program and technological progress on the economic crisis has a certain moderating effect. Our proposed evaluation framework sheds new light that national value chain production can boost economic growth，and further promote the coordinated of regional industries for developing countries.     

疫情影响下我国航空客运量恢复期预测

2020年爆发的新冠肺炎疫情给全国的经济社会带来了巨大的冲击。作为对非正常事件或危机事件高度敏感的航空客运业来说,经济损失更是巨大的。本文根据新冠肺炎疫情与航空旅客运输之间的影响机理,结合2009年至2020年间我国民航客运量的月度数据,运用复合型序列的分解预测模型,对正常运行情况下的航空客运量进行预测,再结合疫情影响下的航空数据进行对比分析。研究表明:2020年航空客运业由于疫情的影响,从1月到12月客运量至少减少15527万人;到年底,有望恢复上年同期航空客运量的90%以上。     

State Power and Private Profit: the political economy of corruption in Southeast Asia

This article reviews the extensive political and economic literature since 1990 on corruption in Indonesia, Philippines, Thailand, Malaysia and Singapore. After considering each country's individual recent history of corruption, the article comparatively analyses the relationship of corruption in these countries with, respectively, the roles of the state, the private sector and external actors, democratisation and decentralisation, and the impact of corruption on economic growth and inequality. Our conclusion is that while economic liberalisation, democratisation and centralisation of state power influence the forms of corruption and its impact on national economic performance, they are neither necessary nor sufficient for its decline.