国有企业改制对就业的影响——来自11个城市的证据

在20世纪90年代中后期,中国工业企业的就业规模大幅度下降,许多人认为,企业改制是其主要原因。本文通过对11个城市386家企业从1995年到2001年的面板数据的研究,评估了企业改制对就业的影响。我们的面板数据回归结果显示,和一般印象相反,改制显著地减缓了就业的下降趋势。我们还发现,改制对企业的就业增长有持续的和递增的积极作用。即使在控制了企业的绩效、就业条件、资产结构以及改制前就业历史之后,我们仍然得到相同的结论。另外,我们还使用了倾向分值匹配基础上的差分内差分方法对我们的结果进行了验证,也得到了相似的结论。     

Innovation and Employment: Evidence from Italian Microdata

The microeconomic empirical literature devoted to the link between innovation and employment tends to suggest that technological change has a positive effect on jobs, at least at the firm-level. The main purpose of this paper is to see whether this result still holds in a situation where intermediate technologies are implemented mainly through non R&D expenditures, as in Italian manufacturing. Applying GMM-SYS to an employment equation augmented for technology and using a unique longitudinal dataset of 575 Italian manufacturing firms over the period 1992–1997, this paper finds a significant – although small – positive relationship between innovation and employment.     

就业保护制度对非正规就业的影响——来自中国省际面板数据的证据

本文基于2000~2013年省级面板数据,在采用差值法估算全国及各省非正规就业规模的基础上,应用动态面板模型考察了就业保护制度对非正规就业的影响,研究发现:全国与各省城镇非正规就业率都呈现出大幅增加趋势,就业结构表现为非正规化;最低工资制度及社会保险制度对非正规就业产生了显著的负向作用;以"民工荒"到来的2004年作为分界点进行分样本检验,结果显示"民工荒"到来后并不改变上述结论,而且还发现,"民工荒"到来后最低工资制度对非正规就业的负向作用变小,而社会保险制度对非正规就业的负向作用变大。     

Impact of Digital Economy on Female Employment: Evidence from Turkey

This paper investigates impact of e-economic activities on female employment rates in Turkey over 1994–2016. The analysis unveils three major findings. First, 80.74% of variations in female employment are accounted by e-commerce and control variables. Second, Autoregressive Distributed Lag analysis documents that these series (female employment, e-commerce and control variables) are cointegrated, thus, a unit increase in per credit card e-commerce transactions leads the female employment rate to grow by 0.13?units in long-run at 1% significance level, whereas a percentage increase in internet penetration rate in Turkey augments the rates by 0.33%. Third, error-correction model analysis refers that the system quickly corrects its previous period disequilibrium converging at a speed of 75.43%, and also documents that the lags of per credit card e-commerce jointly have short-run impact on female employment rates. Thus, the study concludes that developing e-commerce incentivizing policies might help to empower women in Turkey significantly.     

The Impact of Gender Quotas on Votes for Women Candidates: Evidence from Italy

To explore the impact of quotas on women's political representation, this study estimates a conditional multinomial logit for the probability of voting for men and women, utilizing data that includes all regional candidates in four Italian regions in 1995 and 2000. This regional electoral system allows voters to choose both the party and the specific candidate (open-list proportional system). The results show that the introduction of a 50 percent gender quota in candidate lists leads to a substantial increase in the probability that voters will choose women candidates, from 12 to 36 percent. Nevertheless, the probability of voting for women (36 percent) is lower than the probability for men (64 percent). Voters have a male bias in Italy. Both the district size and the political party have an effect on the probability of voting for women versus men. The more liberal the party is, the higher the probability that women receive votes.     

The Impact of Telecommunication Technologies on Competition in Services and Goods Markets: Empirical Evidence

In this paper, we empirically show that a more intensive use and wider adoption of telecommunication technologies significantly increases the level of product market competition in services and goods markets. Our results are consistent with the view that the use of telecommunication technologies can lower the costs of entry and search. These findings are robust to various measures of competition and a wide range of specification checks.     

外包对于我国环境污染影响的实证研究:基于行业面板数据

发达国家和地区的外包行为,究竟是促进了发展中国家的技术进步,从而减少了经济活动对环境的污染呢,还是通过向发展中国家转移生产过程中的加工组装环节,从而扩大了对发展中国家的环境污染?本文在中国业已成为全球最大的代工平台的经济背景下,利用中国行业面板数据实证检验了发达国家和地区的外包对我国环境的影响.实证结果表明,外包行为显著降低了我国的环境污染强度.与此同时,本文还给出了我国规模效应、技术效应、结构效应、产权制度以及要素禀赋等的结果.本文的结论对于理解我国紧迫的产业升级等问题有启发意义.     

劳动力成本上升对不同规模企业创新行为的影响

现有研究认为劳动力成本上升会倒逼企业创新,但该结论主要基于规模以上企业实证研究,难以考察劳动力成本上升对不同规模企业创新行为的异质性影响。基于严格随机分层抽样的“中国企业-员工匹配调查”数据（CEES）,对劳动力成本上升背景下不同规模企业创新行为的异质性影响进行了大样本实证研究。将新产品推出速度作为企业创新的代理变量,研究发现劳动力成本上升对企业创新行为的影响在不同规模企业之间存在明显差异。大型企业创新速度显著加快,而中小企业的创新行为并未发现明显变化。进一步分析认为,之所以存在劳动力成本上升对中小企业创新的“倒逼失灵”现象,技能劳动力缺乏、职业培训投入不足和创新资金基础薄弱或是重要原因。     

Globalization and electoral outcomes: Evidence from Italy

We study whether and to what extent the electoral dynamics in Italy over the 1994–2008 period can be explained by the development of economic factors associated with globalization. To measure the level of exposure to globalization for local labor markets, our main unit of analysis, we use the intensity of import competition from China and the presence of immigrants. Looking at parties’ political positions and employing an estimation strategy that accounts for endogeneity and time‐invariant unobserved effects across local labor markets, we find that both immigration intensity and exposure to import competition from China have contributed positively to the electoral outcomes of far‐right parties, whereas only immigration intensity has increased the vote shares of right‐wing and traditionalist/authoritarian/nationalist parties. Some evidence, albeit not robust, shows that immigration may have also had a positive impact on far‐left parties, thus possibly further contributing toward political polarization. Moreover, electoral turnout has responded negatively to an increased presence of migrants. While the above effects seem to work through the mediation of labor markets, our results, especially those related to immigration, suggest that other mechanisms at the level of local communities are also at play.     

The Impact of Visibility on Trade: Evidence from the World Cup

Success in the FIFA World Cup provides countries with substantial international visibility. This paper uses this information shock associated with the World Cup to show that visibility has a significant impact on trade flows. In isolating the visibility effect, two identification problems are solved. Match outcomes in the World Cup are subject to significant uncertainty. This uncertainty, when combined with controls for economic development, makes World Cup success exogenous to exports. By contrast, hosting the World Cup is potentially endogenous owing to self‐selection issues. The paper exploits FIFA's host selection policy to construct exogenous instruments for hosting. The results show that success in the World Cup raises exports temporarily by around 5%.     

Employment And Mobility Of Workers In Industries With Different Intensity Of Innovation: Evidence On Italy From A Panel Of Workers And Firms

In this paper a panel of workers and firms is used to investigate employment composition and dynamics in industries which differ by innovation intensity. To define the latter industry-wide statistics were used (for a subset of 2,800 firms, individual data on R&D expenditures and investments in innovative processes were available from a survey on manufacturing). Firms and workers are observed over the period 1985–1991. The paper document an high rate of labour turnover. Annual separation rates are high in all size-classes, but they decline from 50% in small firms (less than 20 employees) to 13% in large ones (with more than 1,000 employees). Separations are inversely related to an industry's innovative intensity (from 18% in the highly innovative industries to 31% in the traditional industries). A logit model, which controlled for the characteristics of workers and firms, showed that the probability of separation is higher among manual and young workers and decreases monotonically with the firm size. The probability of separation declines as job tenure and, perhaps more importantly, the individual's wage increases. After controlling for these factors, the evidence suggests that the highest probability of separation is in traditional industries, the lowest is in the more innovative industries. The result is strengthened when firm-level data on R&D and other innovative expenditures are used. Other things being equal, firms that invest in R&D have a more stable labour force, and firms that invest in non-innovative processes have a less stable labour force. We therefore find empirical evidence to support the hypothesis that more innovative firms cultivate more durable employer-employee relationships. The fraction of job-to-job moves (with no intervening period of unemployment) on total separations qualifies the turnover of workers. Controlling for firm size, the percentage of job-to-job moves increases fairly regularly with worker's skills and with the industry's innovative intensity. Thus the innovative intensity of he industry appears to have a positive effect on the share of job-to-job moves, while there is some evidence that it lowers the chances of separation. This result may be linked to the skills and specialisations of the workforce; it is certainly related to the higher demand for labour in the High Tech Sectors (where employment is growing) relative to the less innovative sectors.     

Monetary Policy, Credit and Aggregate Supply: The Evidence from Italy

This paper concerns theory and evidence of the monetary transmission mechanisms. Current research has deeply investigated factors, such as dependence of firms on bank credit, that amplify the impact of monetary policy impulses on aggregate demand exerting strong but temporary effects on output and employment. We present an intertemporal macroeconomic equilibrium model of a competitive economy where current production is financed by bank credit, and then we use it to identify supply–side effects of the credit transmission mechanism in data drawn from the Italian economy. We find evidence that the 'credit variables' identified by the model – the overnight rate as a proxy of monetary policy and a measure of credit risk – have permanent effects on employment and output by altering credit supply conditions to firms.
To save on space, mathematical proofs, statistical tests and data sources have been gathered in two separate appendices that can be examined on request.
(J.E.L.: E2, E5).     

员工创新行为发生机制:来自领导的影响

以内部动机理论和情境力量理论为基础,探讨了变革型领导对员工创新行为的影响及作用机制。对15家企业96个团队进行问卷调查,采用Amos和SPSS的PROCESS插件进行统计分析。实证结果表明,变革型领导对员工创新行为有显著正向影响;心理授权在变革型领导和员工创新行为间起中介作用;领导-成员交换显著正向调节心理授权在变革型领导与员工创新行为间的中介作用,即在高质量领导-成员交换关系下,变革型领导通过心理授权影响员工创新行为的中介作用显著,在低质量领导成员交换关系下,该中介作用不显著。     

Turnout in concurrent elections: Evidence from two quasi-experiments in Italy

We study the effects of different types of concurrent elections using individual-level administrative and survey data from Italy. Exploiting different voting ages for the two Houses of Parliament in a voter-level Regression Discontinuity Design, we find no effect of Senate voting eligibility on voter turnout or information acquisition. We also estimate city-level Differences-in-Differences showing that concurrent high-salience municipal elections increase turnout in lower-salience provincial and European elections, but not vice-versa. These concurrency effects are concentrated in municipalities in the South of Italy, possibly due to weaker political parties and lower levels of social capital.     

The Impact of Climate Change on Regional Government Expenditures: Evidence from Russia

This paper explores an almost untouched topic in the fast-growing climate econometrics literature—the implications of climate change for government expenditures. Using a rich sub-national dataset for Russia covering 1995–2009, we estimate the impacts of changes in climatic conditions through short-term variation and medium-term changes in average regional temperatures and precipitation. We show a strong and robust negative (but non-linear) relation between regional budget expenditures and population-weighted temperature. The results indicate that an increase in temperature results in a decrease in public expenditures and that the magnitude of this effect diminishes the warmer the region. Further, our results suggest that the benefits from warming accumulate and that adaptation measures could help leverage those benefits. The estimated decreases in regional government expenditure are, however, quite small. In mild warming scenarios, according to our estimates Russia saves roughly USD 3–4 billion in regional government expenditures between 2000 and the 2020s without undertaking adaptation measures, depending on the scenario. It should be noted that our results are estimated for a scenario of mild temperature increase (1–2 \(^{\circ }\)C). Larger temperature increases are likely to have dramatic consequences e.g. from loss of permafrost and methane release that are impossible to predict with available historical data.     

The Impact of Migrant Remittances on Economic Growth: Evidence from South Asia

Incorporating migrant remittances among other variables into a growth model, and employing panel data over the 1970–2008 period, this study investigates the impact of migrant remittances on economic growth in South Asia. Migrant remittances are found to have a significant positive effect on economic growth. A significant positive interactive effect of remittances on economic growth is detected through education and financial sector development.     

Employment Effects of Minimum Wages: Evidence from a Quasi-Experiment

To estimate the impact of raising the minimum wage on employment, this article uses a natural experiment, arising from six increases in the Western Australian statutory minimum wage during the period 1994–2001. Relative to the rest of Australia, the employment to population ratio in Western Australia fell following each of the six rises, twice by a statistically significant margin. Aggregating the increases, the elasticity of labour demand with respect to the Western Australian statutory minimum wage is found to be ?0.13.     

Employment effects of service offshoring: Evidence from matched firms

This paper studies the effects of service offshoring on the level and skill composition of domestic employment, using a rich data set of Italian firms and propensity score matching techniques. The results show that service offshoring has no effect on the level of employment but changes its composition in favor of high skilled workers.     

独特公司治理机制对企业创新的影响——来自互联网公司双层股权制的全球证据

双层股权制度在现代新兴高科技企业中的使用率持续上升。对这种新兴公司治理机制的研究,以往主要集中在它引发的委托代理问题上,而关于它对创新的影响的研究尚是一个缺口。本文通过引入短期业绩敏感性拓展了Chemmanur-Jiao模型,对此问题做出了理论分析,并以Bv D-Osiris全球上市公司数据库中2004—2013全球互联网上市公司为样本对模型分析的结果进行了实证检验。研究发现,在全球意义上,双股制对企业创新有显著的促进作用,这一作用在使用倾向得分匹配法及Heckman两阶段模型对样本选择问题进行处理后更为显著且影响更大。同时,双股制的创新促进作用还取决于外部投资者的短期业绩敏感性,这在新兴国家与发达国家有显著差异。在外部制衡机制不完善的新兴国家中,采用双股制而且创始人任CEO或董事长反而会减少创新投入。进一步的实验设计的证据表明,中国目前采用双层股权制度的条件还不成熟。