Poverty in South Africa – a statistical analysis

Poverty is one of the major challenges facing democratic South Africa. This article focuses on poverty in South Africa, using the Income and Expenditure Survey conducted in 1995 by Statistics South Africa (formerly the Central Statistical Service). In the first part, different approaches that can be followed in the measurement of poverty are discussed. In the second part, Sen's approach to the measurement of poverty and the Chi-square Automatic Interaction Detection (CHAID) technique have been used to analyse the above data. CHAID is used to explore the relationship between the poverty status of the household (ie poor or non-poor) and other household characteristics. These variables can then be used as predictors of poverty status.     

Public Expenditure,Growth and Poverty Reduction in Rural Uganda

Abstract: Using district‐level data for 1992, 1995, and 1999, the study estimated effects of different types of government expenditure on agricultural growth and rural poverty in Uganda. The results reveal that government spending on agricultural research and extension improved agricultural production substantially. This type of expenditure had the largest measured returns to growth in agricultural production. Agricultural research and extension spending also had the largest assessed impact on poverty reduction. Government spending on rural roads also had a substantial marginal impact on rural poverty reduction. The impact of low‐grade roads such as feeder roads is larger than that of high‐grade roads such as murram and tarmac roads. Education's effects rank after agricultural research and extension, and roads. Government spending in health did not show a large impact on growth in agricultural productivity or a reduction in rural poverty. Additional investments in the northern region (a poor region) contribute the most to reducing poverty. However, it is the western region (a relatively well‐developed region) where most types of investment have highest returns in terms of increased agricultural productivity.     

General Equilibrium Approach for Poverty Analysis: With an Application to Cameroon

Abstract: In this paper we use a computable general equilibrium model to study the impact of a trade shock and a tariff reform on household poverty for an archetype developing country. Unlike other studies, we present the income distribution of each household group as a Beta statistical distribution. In contrast to other studies, this paper presents the poverty lines as being endogenous. With this specification, the poverty line will change following a variation in relative prices. With the new distributions and poverty line, the poverty levels of the base year are compared with the ex‐post values. Foster, Greer and Thorbecke's (1984) poverty measures are used. We work with the Cameroon household survey data of 1995–96. We consider two scenarios. The first is a 30 percent fall in the world price of the country's export crop and the second is a reduction of 50 percent in the country's import tariffs. For the first simulation, results indicate a drop in all household incomes and a decrease in the poverty line. Unilateral trade liberalization also has negative consequences on all household incomes. As in the first simulation, the poverty line decreases with a unilateral trade liberalization. In the trade liberalization simulation, the poverty line effect counters the income effect in most cases analyzed. In the other simulation, the poverty line effect attenuates the decrease in the poverty measures.     

Poverty Alleviation in the People's Republic of China: The Implications for Sino–African Cooperation in Poverty Reduction

Abstract: In the last thirty years, remarkable achievements have been made in China's poverty reduction course. The dramatic fall in China's poor can be attributed mainly to a high rate of economic growth, government poverty reduction policies and targeted programmes and pro‐poor macroeconomic and industrial policies. This paper focuses on China's poverty reduction policies and programmes and their impact on the poor regions and poor households. Lessons are drawn for poverty reduction and economic development in African countries. The paper also explores the potential for collaboration in poverty reduction between China and African countries and recommendations are made for the governments and donor agencies.     

Unemployment, Poverty and Income Disparity in Urban China

This paper studies the issues of unemployment and poverty that have been appearing recently in urban China. It estimates the urban unemployment rate, poverty rate and income disparity using a new sample survey data set. Meanwhile, it analyzes the relationship between unemployment and poverty, and the effects of poverty on urban inequality. The main findings are that: (i) the urban unemployment rate reached 11.6% in 1999 and was a major cause of urban poverty; (ii) growing urban poverty is becoming the significant source of worsening urban inequality; and (iii) migrant households have an increasing influence on urban poverty and the pattern of urban income distribution. The paper concludes that urban income distribution has worsened since 1995, and urban unemployment and poverty are the major factors in this worsening.     

社会保险缓解了农村老人的多维贫困吗？——兼论“贫困恶性循环”效应

老年人贫困是中国人口老龄化背景下亟需解决的问题,社会保险则在国家反贫与脱贫方面发挥着不可或缺的作用。采用具有代表性的中国老年健康影响因素（CLHLS2011）大样本微观跟踪调查数据,构建Logit计量回归模型,将农村老人贫困分为经济贫困、健康贫困与精神贫困三个维度,从实证的角度,探讨了社会保险与农村老人贫困的关系。研究发现,养老保险与医疗保险在不同程度上缓解了农村老人多个维度的贫困。文章进一步指出农村老人贫困存在“恶性循环”,经济贫困、健康贫困与精神贫困三个维度之间存在显著的相互正向影响,但社会保险对农村老人陷入“贫困恶性循环”起到了的调节效应,即社会保险弱化了不同贫困之间相互的正向作用。这些经验发现可以为政府改善农村老龄人群的贫困状况提供可靠的政策依据。     

Pro-poor growth and social protection in South Africa: Exploring the interactions

This study evaluates the impact of South Africa's long-term economic growth on household poverty and inequality between 1995 and 2005. We find a decline in aggregate levels of poverty, but increasing levels of inequality. The evidence suggests that the growth model provides substantial redistributive income support to the poor through the social grant programme, whilst offering few returns to those in the middle of the distribution.     

Growth and improverishment in the middle of the nineteenth century

This paper applies the techniques for the development of ‘soft’ data to gain insight into the historical impacts of economic change on the structure and extent of poverty in the early stages of commercialization and industrialization. A typology of the structure of poverty is constructed for 1850 for 24 countries and the nine types which emerge are ranked partially by the probable extent of extreme poverty. The nature and ranking of the types are then used to develop hypotheses regarding the historical processes generating poverty. The paper focuses on the poorest stratum of society in countries of widely different levels of development. The study suggests that the phenomena generating poverty in 1850 were surprisingly similar to those operating in today's developing countries.     

Poverty in South Africa: Statistical inference for decomposable poverty measures

The measurement of poverty involves two problems: identifying the poor and constructing an index to measure the intensity of poverty. The headcount ratio is one of the widely used indices for the measurement of poverty. This article considers some of the other decomposable (i.e. additively separable) poverty measures. The importance of this property (decomposability) and of subgroup consistency for a poverty measure is highlighted. Since most of these poverty measures are estimated on the basis of sample surveys, the statistical significance of the observed differences is tested using the distribution-free approach proposed by Kakwani (1993, Review of Economics and Statistics , 75: 632-40). The Income and Expenditure Survey conducted in 1995 by Statistics South Africa, then called Central Statistical Service, is used in the study.     

Agro-clusters and Rural Poverty: A Spatial Perspective for West Java

Neighbouring economies are likely to influence one another. The concentration of farming activities referred to as an ‘agro-cluster’ generates opportunities for income and employment in a given region and its surrounding area. We analyse the link between poverty rates and agro-clusters by accounting for spatial spillovers. To quantify agroclusters, we employ one input-oriented and one output-oriented measure. Our analysis applies six spatial econometric specifications and focuses on 545 subdistricts of West Java, where about 10% of the population live in poverty. We find that the concentration of agricultural employment substantially reduces poverty in a subdistrict as well as in neighbouring subdistricts. We also find that specialisation in crop outputs has positive impacts on poverty reduction and that localisation externalities are fundamental to agriculture's success. These findings imply that policy interventions may be applied in a spatially selective manner because they will generate spatial-spillover effects on poverty reduction in surrounding areas.     

Integrated Strategy Approach for Poverty Alleviation: A Paramount Priority for Africa

Abstract: This paper examines the nature and extent of poverty in Africa. It recognizes that poverty in the region is essentially a rural phenomenon and women are disproportionately affected. The paper argues for an integrated strategy approach to poverty alleviation in Africa which deals with the problem of poverty uprooting at three levels: 1) on those which can be addressed by an effective long term strategy of rapid and broad based economic growth; 2) those which require active population and human resource development policy; 3) and those which need special programs to uproot poverty Résumé: Ce document examine la nature et la portée de la pauvreté en Afrique. Il reconnait que la pauvreté est essentiellement dans la région un phénomène rural et les femmes sont disproportionnellement touchées. Le document plaide en faveur d'une approche de stratégic intégrée de la lutte contre la pauvreté en Afrique qui traite des problèmes d'eradication de la pauvretéà trois niveaux: 1) ceux qu'on peut résoudre par une stratégic efficace à long terme de croissance économique rapide et à base étendue; 2) ceux qui exigent une politique active de developpement de la population et des ressources humaines; 3) ceux qui ont besoin de programmes spéciaux pour extirper la pauvreté.     

宁夏回族自治区乡村旅游扶贫研究

乡村旅游扶贫是我国扶贫工作的重点。宁夏民族地区以其独特的自然优势将乡村旅游扶贫工作发挥的淋漓尽致,不仅帮助了贫困户实现脱贫,还带动了产业的转型。针对宁夏回族自治区为分析其贫困现状和导致贫困的原因进行了研究,以及展开对乡村旅游扶贫的优劣势和面临的阻碍。根据分析结果,探讨了宁夏乡村旅游扶贫的问题与对策。     

Determinants of labour force participation in the North West province of South Africa

Based on data extracted from the 1995 October Household Survey of Statistics South Africa, this study has found that potential income is a major factor in labour force participation by African women in the North West province of South Africa. Other significant determinants of participation for both genders are age, education, region, marital status and relationship to the head of the household. The results imply that significant discrimination against African women still exists in the North West province, which partly explains the much lower participation rate for African women (64 per cent), compared with that of African men (86,5 per cent). The study supports the North West government's development strategy of developing human resources to eradicate poverty.     

How to identify poor immigrants? - An empirical study of the Three Gorges Reservoir in China

This paper aims to study on the precise identification and targeting of immigrant poverty in the TGRR, with a multi-dimensional poverty line as a standard, which has transcended the traditional income poverty line. Then, we figured out the changing trend and the causes of immigrant poverty under the perspective of multidimensional poverty. Based on the dual cutoff method and regression analysis, the study results show that the discrepancy of poverty before and after immigration is significant, but the poverty problem of immigrants in the TGRR is still serious. The current multi-poverty incidence of immigrants is 30.15%, which means that there are still 2.3097 million people under poverty. The major causes of poverty in this region are poverty in assets, poverty in education and poverty in health. The poverty contribution rate of land scarcity has increased from 12.16% to 29.52% with the deterioration of land loss, which has a negative effect on immigrants' livelihood. The results reveal several outstanding poverty problems in this region: the coverage of social security of immigrants is far from ideal; There are still 12.75% of the impoverished immigrants without medical insurance and 11.36% without pension insurance; the percentage of female laborers, the education level of laborers, the percentage of agricultural expenditure and the percentage of medical expenditure have significant correlations with immigrants' poverty in this region. The paper argues that the precise identification and targeting of poverty reduction in China should be undertaken from a multidimensional perspective.     

Do political connections affect corporate poverty alleviation decisions? Evidence from China

Programs to alleviate poverty by corporations are increasingly popular as a new form of corporate social responsibility. This study examines how the political connections of a firm's chairperson are associated with decisions to alleviate poverty based on a sample of listed Chinese firms from 2016 to 2018. We find that the chairperson's political connections increase the probability of participation and the amount of investment in programs to alleviate poverty. This positive relationship is mainly manifested in firms with high agency costs and low regional economic conditions. In addition, the chairperson's political connections are not related to the efficiency of the poverty alleviation program. Politically connected firms receive less government recognition with an increase in investment in poverty alleviation. Our findings are consistent with the notion that firms participate in poverty alleviation programs for reciprocal favor exchanges, but they fail to manage these programs efficiently.     

Changes in poverty in Zimbabwe between 1990 and 1996: Worsening outcomes under adverse conditions

The article examines changes in poverty and sources of change in Zimbabwe between 1990 and 1996. Comparable national survey data are used for both periods. Findings indicate that levels of wellbeing and poverty worsened during the period, although there is some evidence that inequality is lower in the latter year. Rural poverty is more prevalent, severe and deeper than that in urban areas, but urban poverty grew dramatically during the period. Much of the growth of urban poverty is associated with economic restructuring and the failure of the urban economy to produce high-quality jobs. While the educational attainment of the urban population grew during the 1990s, secondary and higher levels of education were no longer a guarantee of escape from poverty in 1995/6. In rural areas, all land-use types exhibited an increase in poverty; these findings are robust to the welfare measure chosen.     

大理乳业发展现状及问题研究

作为大理州传统优势产业的乳业承担着稳定经济发展大局,促进农民收入,保障贫困户稳定脱贫的重要任务。首先对大理州乳业的现实发展状况进行了描述;然后分析了当前制约大理州乳业发展的影响因素;最后通过现状和问题的探讨,试图从完善奶牛良种繁育体系、提高技术创新能力、加大资金投入、强化政府支持力度、提升奶农环保意识、加强销售终端建设六个方面提出促进大理州乳产业健康发展的对策建议。     

地方理论视角下丽江旅游扶贫网络游记研究

近年来网络游记已成为众多学者研究旅游者对某地的形象感知意象的重要手段。通过对大量有关地方理论文献的梳理,在结构主义以及社会文化等方面的地方理论视角下,利用八爪鱼软件对携程网站上有关丽江的网络游记进行整理,分析丽江旅游扶贫的地方文化意义。对网络游记的分析不仅局限于个人地方感知,还可以深入到社会文化内核对游客感知的影响等研究。     

Poverty and Inequality Maps in Rural Vietnam: An Application of Small Area Estimation

The objective of the present paper is to estimate poverty and inequality for rural Vietnam at different levels of aggregation by combining the Vietnam Household Living Standard Survey from 2006 and the Rural Agriculture and Fishery Census from the same year. Using the small area estimation method, estimates at the regional, provincial and district level are produced, and both expenditure and income based measures are considered. It is found that all provinces across the country have experienced a noticeable reduction in rural poverty during the period 1999–2006. Some of the largest reductions in poverty are observed for provinces with poverty rates close to the national average. The poorest provinces are experiencing reductions in poverty, albeit at a more modest pace. Provinces and districts with a larger poverty reduction in the period 1999–2006 tended to have a lower level of inequality in 2006. Results based on expenditure poverty estimates are found to be very similar to those based on income poverty estimates.