Innovation and the Economy

Unemployment has remained at relatively high levels across most European countries for a generation now. There have been a number of suggested explanations for this, with correspondingly different policy implications. Two of the major hypotheses relate, first, to the impact on the European economies from increased international competition, and 'globalisation' more generally, and, secondly, to the effects of new technology and innovation. The effects of both globalisation and technology on growth and employment in Europe have been researched over the past two years through an EU-funded project, the results of which, relating in particular to innovation, are reported in this Special Issue of the International Review of Applied Economics. (The results relating to globalisation were reported in a Special Issue of the Journal of Interdisciplinary Economics , Volume 13.) It is clear from the empirical work reported that the effects of technological innovation have been mixed. There is no doubt that some innovation has had a negative effect on employment, without the compensatingly positive effects that new technology usually brings in its wake. However, in high technology manufacturing sectors there is scope for boosting both productivity and employment. But this requires an appropriate policy environment, conducive to increased investment in capital, R&D and the workforce itself.     

Innovation spending and productivity growth in the German economy 1980–1986

A newly developed technique involving vertically integrated input-output sectors is used to examine the relationship between labour productivity and innovation expenditures in the German economy during the period 1980 to 1986. The productivity measures used, dubbed Harrod-Robinson-Read (HRR), take into account the direct and indirect labour used in each consumption goods sector. Included in these measures is the labour content of new capital investment.

The HRR measures show higher rates of productivity growth in most sectors, compared to the simple direct labour requirements measures. This is due to the fact that the HRR measures take into account the increased efficiency with which new capital is produced. The second part of the study examines the relationship between labour productivity and innovation expenditures as measured by the IFO (Institute for Economic Research – Munich) innovation survey. Using cross section data for 58 German industries, a strong correlation was found between direct labour productivity growth and direct innovation expenditure.

These results suggest that with more detailed capital expenditure data it should be possible to describe more precisely the relationships between innovation activity, spending on new capital, and productivity changes. The key to examining these relationships in more detail is the growing wealth of information contained in recent innovation surveys such as those done by the IFO.     

Demand and innovation in productivity growth

The labour productivity impact of demand and innovation is investigated in this paper combining insights from the Kaldorian and Schumpeterian traditions. After a review of studies in such traditions, a general model is proposed for explaining productivity growth in European manufacturing and service industries in the late 1990s, followed by two distinct specifications for the industries oriented toward product innovation, and for those where process innovation dominates. The empirical analysis is based on the match of the SIEPI‐CIS2 database developed at the University of Urbino and Eurostat Input–Output Tables at the industry level, for 22 manufacturing sectors and 10 services sectors. Six European countries are considered: Germany, France, Italy, the Netherlands, Portugal and the United Kingdom. The results show that productivity growth in European industries can be explained by a combination of technology factors and demand dynamics, confirming the complementarity of technology and demand effects. On the demand side, household consumption emerges as the most pervasive component of demand, able to stimulate greater efficiency in all manufacturing and service industries. Investment also has a role, focused however on the capital goods producing industries. On the technology side, the mechanisms of productivity growth are fundamentally different in the industries oriented towards product innovation and in those dominated by process innovation. This evidence supports the view that innovation in firms and industries can be associated to two contrasting strategies, searching either for technological competitiveness, through knowledge generation, product innovation and expansion of new markets, or aiming at greater cost competitiveness, through job reductions, labour saving investment, flexibility and restructuring.     

美国风险投资金融经济价值问题研究

从美国风险投资发展的历程入手,分析其通过加速技术创新,从而创造宏观经济价值效应、促进就业的重要金融经济贡献,得出以下主要结论:风险投资在国家金融经济领域具有重要地位,它与具有发展潜力的高科技产业紧密地联系在一起,促进了技术创新和专利发明;风险投资与国家宏观经济以及国际竞争力具有长期正相关关系;风险投资与平均年工资水平和劳动生产率之间也存在强正相关关系;风险投资在美国的国家金融经济领域的以上各个方面发挥了及其重要的作用.由此得到启示:在中国经济转型的关键时期,大力发展风险投资已是当务之急,美国风险投资的运作模式能够为更有效地发挥风险投资所应有的金融经济价值提供借鉴.     

Capital Constraints and Employmen

Abstract
This article considers whether capital is a significant constraint on employment in Australia. We calculate the level of capital-constrained employment for seven sectors of the Australian economy. The calculations suggest that the manufacturing; transport, storage and communication; and recreation, personal and other services sectors have sufficient capital installed to increase employment. In two other sectors, mining and wholesale and retail trade, the potential for increases in employment through increased capital utilisation may be constrained by surplus labour (as of June 1993). While some sectors are capital constrained at the moment, we find that the investment requirements to increase employment in these sectors are not onerous. We also project investment requirements in each of the sectors for employment growth over the next five years. These projections suggest that a jump in investment followed by relatively modest growth is required to sustain growth in employment.     

THE IMPACT OF DOMESTIC AND FOREIGN COMPETITION ON SECTORAL GROWTH: A CROSS‐COUNTRY ANALYSIS

This paper examines the impact of competition on the total factor productivity (TFP) of 21 manufacturing sectors in eighteen OECD countries over the period of time 1990–2006. We assume that the source of TFP growth can be either domestic or foreign innovation or technology transfer from the technological frontier. Trade openness, R&D, and human capital can have two effects: a direct effect on TFP (e.g., through innovation) and an indirect effect depending on the productivity gap between a given country and the technological frontier. We find that tougher domestic competition is always associated with higher sectoral productivity. Both import and export penetrations are positively associated with an increase of TFP. However, the channels through which higher TFP is materialized are different: export penetration works through level effect, while import penetration acts mainly when conditional on the level of technological development. The economical magnitude of the effect is not trivial.     

Trade Policy and Productivity Growth in OECD Manufacturing *

Trade liberalization may promote economic growth in a number of ways, including by accelerating the rate of technological change. Firms that face more intense import competition may be spurred to greater rates of innovation; firms which export may absorb new technologies through their contact with international markets. This paper examines evidence on trade policy and productivity growth for a sample of thirteen OECD countries and including eighteen manufacturing sectors, using data primarily from the 1980s. Within individual sectors, there are strong productivity convergence effects within the OECD. After controlling for convergence, we find a positive association between high rates of productivity growth and low tariffs, and between high productivity growth and strong export performance. We found no particular association between high productivity growth and import penetration. The results are consistent with the possibility of positive linkages between trade liberalization and accelerated productivity growth. [F1, O4]     

技术创新、资本积累与工业化的增长和就业效果

改革以来,中国工业化的一个重要特征是工业部门产出迅速扩张的同时,它吸收的就业增长明显滞后.笔者发展了一个理论模型和相应的统计分析框架,从理论和实证两个方面考察了工业化的两个基本推动力量--技术创新和资本积累对我国工业化进程中产出和就业增长的影响.我们发现,资本积累没有对工业部门产出和就业增长的趋势产生统计上显著的影响,然而,它是推动1990年之前工业部门产出增长以及1978年～2004年间工业部门就业增长的主要力量;技术创新的劳动节约偏向决定了工业部门就业增长明显下降的趋势,并成为1990年以后工业部门产出增长的主导力量.     

A SAM-CGE Demonstration Model for Indonesia: Static and Dynamic Specifications and Experiments

In this article it will be demonstrated how a simple static Computable General Equilibrium model of the Indonesian economy can be constructed using the Social Accounting Matrix as a database. It will be shown that under a few assumptions the constant labour force and capital stock in the static model can be elaborated to dynamic specifications. In both static and dynamic versions the effects of productivity increases are investigated, leading to the conclusion that with respect to income and employment generating effects innovating sectors are worse off than non-innovating sectors due to low elasticities of demand. [D58, O33]     

Internet Economics and Policy: An Australian Perspective

Publicly available information indicates that the demand and supply of Internet and Internet–related services are continuing to expand at a rapid pace. Since 1997 the number of Internet service providers (facilities–based and resellers) has increased by nearly 40 per cent; the number of points–of–presence per Internet service provider has increased by five times; the number of hosts connected to the Internet has more than quadrupled; and Internet traffic has increased from six to 10 times. The emergence of electronic commerce (e–commerce), driven by this rapid adoption of Internet services and continual technological innovation, is likely to have profound economic and social impacts on Australian society. This paper provides a detailed analysis of the impact of the Internet and e–commerce, ranging from the changes in the market structure of the telecommunications industry, its role in changing the organisation of traditional markets, the emergence of new markets, and the structural shifts to employment, productivity and trade. The paper also analyses contemporary Australian regulatory responses.     

Contracting Productivity Growth

This paper analyses the interactions between growth and the contracting environment in production. With incompleteness in contracting, viable production relationships between firms and workers, and therefore the profitability of industries, depend on the rates of innovation and growth. The speed at which new innovations arrive in turn depends on the profitability of production, for the usual reasons examined in the endogenous growth literature. We show that these interactions can have important implications which are consistent with observed phenomena in both the micro and macro environments. In particular, we demonstrate that a technological shock (increasing productivity of research) can, through this interaction, lead to a productivity slowdown and a shift in labour market contracts away from firms providing implicit guarantees of lifetime employment and towards shorter-term "contractor" type arrangements. We show the consistency of an increase in the proportion of the labour force under short-term employment, increased relative returns of workers in high-productivity sectors, and increased income inequality, with a productivity slowdown of finite duration.     

Outward foreign direct investment and domestic innovation performance: evidence from China

The existing literature has explored the existence of reverse technology spillover through outward foreign direct investment (OFDI), which means domestic firms improve their technological innovation and productivity due to overseas investment activities. This paper aims to examine how the host country affects reverse technology spillover from OFDI. The findings show domestic innovation performance (DIP) is positively related to OFDI in developed countries while it is negatively related to OFDI in transitional and emerging markets. It is also found that financial development and human capital weaken the positive relationship between OFDI in developed countries and DIP and also weaken the negative relationship between OFDI in transitional and emerging markets and DIP. These results are further confirmed through robustness checks.     

Finance and sources of growth: evidence from the U.S. states

How does financial development affect economic growth: through its impact on accumulation of physical and human capital or by boosting total factor productivity (TFP) growth? We use a new data set on output, inputs, and total factor productivity for the US states to study this question. Unlike previous cross-country research that tries to disentangle the channels through which financial development impacts growth, we use a plausibly exogenous measure of financial development: the timing of banking deregulation across states during the period 1970–2000. At the same time our new data set allows us to go beyond what was previously done in the state banking deregulation literature and identify whether finance impacts states’ input accumulation or TFP growth. We find, in line with existing cross-country studies, that deregulation boosts growth by accelerating both TFP growth and the accumulation of physical capital without having any impact on human capital. In contrast to the cross-country studies, we also find that the effects of deregulation are largely independent of states’ initial level of development; both rich and poor states grow faster after deregulation. Additionally, since our data set breaks down aggregate output into three sectors: agriculture, manufacturing, and the remaining industries, we are able to show that deregulation accelerates the growth of productivity in manufacturing. This last finding answers an important critique of the banking deregulation studies which asserts that observed growth effects may be coming from the growth of financial industry itself and not from the beneficial effect of finance on other industries, such as manufacturing.     

Technical change and market structure

This paper investigates the ceteris-paribus effects of labor reducing technical progress on industry-wide employment under different market regimes. We distinguish between a contestable market, a monopoly, and a market with bounded supplier power. Under a constant wage rate, employment will not decrease only if the elasticity of demand on a contestable market exceeds one. The same thing holds for markets with bounded supplier power. Under a monopoly, price elasticity must even be more than three. Ceteris paribus we thus have to expect a higher probability of employment reduction under a monopoly than under other market regimes. Raising wages proportional to productivity leads to an employment reduction on stagnating markets with supplier power. Here a raise in wages without layoffs is only possible if the growth in demand is at least as high as the growth in productivity.The author is indebted to Alfred E. Ott, Sabine Böckem, Rolf Wiegert and Ulf Schiller for valuable comments. Of course, I take responsibility for all remaining errors.     

When sociable workers pay off: Can firms internalize social capital externalities?

We use an endogenous growth model to contrast the socially optimal allocation of human capital with the decentralized solution, in a context where workers make the choices that determine social capital accumulation. As social capital is expected to increase productivity but is not traded in markets, a positive social capital externality is identified. We discuss the possibility that, in response to this externality, firms subsidize social capital accumulation activities, incurring into additional costs that are recouped through productivity gains. This reaction by firms may be seen as a justification for some corporate social responsibility actions targeted at workers, although a full internalization of the externality does not look achievable in practice.     

North-South knowledge spillovers and competition: convergence versus divergence

Technology spillovers from high-productivity countries in the North allow low-productivity countries in the South to improve productivity in high-tech sectors relatively easy. However, the South's share in world goods markets for high-tech products is relatively low, which reduces opportunities for learning by doing. Our simple Ricardian endogenous growth model shows how the balance between toughness of competition in trade and the strength of North-South spillovers determines whether productivity levels diverge, partially converge or fully converge in the long run. If convergence prevails, the North is confronted with declining employment in high-tech sectors. Temporary (trade) policy measures can turn a diverging economy into a converging one.     

Schumpeterian growth,chaos, and the formation of dissipative structures

This paper reformulates several basic ideas introduced by Joseph Schumpeter to examine the correlation between productivity growth and technological change in order to explore why American productivity growth has been sluggish for the past two decades. Convetional growth theory maintains that a primary cause of low productivity growth is inadequate capital formation, which in turn is caused by low private domestic saving. This paper borrows concepts from cybernetics, formal information theory, and chaotic dynamic systems to describe the Schumpeterian process through which innovative “new combinations” of capital goods generate wealth, productivity increases, and income growth, and which in turn cause increased savings. It describes the process through which such fundamental technological changes are diffused by entrepreneurs throughout the economy, and concludes that the fundamental causes of America's relatively weak productivity growth are to be found in policies or practices that inhibit innovation and entrepreneurship.     

风险投资背景、持股比例对初创企业技术创新产出的影响

为研究风险投资对初创企业技术创新产出的影响，基于中介效应模型，结合数据包络分析方法和静态面板回归分析方法，对创业板上市公司样本进行了实证分析。研究发现：有风险投资参与的初创企业技术创新产出高于无风险投资参与的初创企业，且风险投资持股比例越高，对初创企业创新的促进作用越显著。不同背景的风险投资对初创企业技术创新产出的影响不同：政府风险投资和外资风险投资持股比例越高的初创企业全要素生产率越高，且政府背景风险投资最为有效，外资背景风险投资次之；研发投入在风险投资与技术创新之间发挥部分中介作用，即风险投资通过直接作用和间接作用共同影响初创企业技术创新产出。